Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Thursday: GREAT WEATHER with sunshine, low humidity and warm.  Highs 77-80 degrees with no chance of rain
  • Friday: Becoming humid with south winds returning. Highs warming back into the 80s

The Cycling Weather Pattern

We often show the biggest, most amplified features to showcase the LRC. These are usually deeps storms or big ridges.  The entire weather pattern is cycling and beginning last December and in the months since we showcased dozens of examples with map to map, cycle to cycle comparisons.  Here is one of the flatter features coming into the western states in the next week. Look at how it compares, and 236 days before next week, or 59 times 4:

The map on the left is what happened in this part of our first cycle of this years pattern, and the map on the right is the European model forecast for this same part of the pattern due in within the next week. This will likely create a strong surface storm by late this weekend:

This is the surface forecast from the European model valid one week from tonight on June 13th. Storm chasers will be paying close attention to this set up as a strong surface low is forecast to form over South Dakota with a trailing cold front into Kansas.  The warm front is forecast to stretch out from this low across Minnesota and this is likely where the biggest risk of severe weather will be located.  It’s a week out, but it is our next storm system and it fits the LRC perfectly.

Well, we are around a week away from our next storm system. This will provide an entire week to dry out with almost no chance of rain at all. Remember this is the wettest time of the year, on average.  Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June. Here are the graphics from a few days ago when we looked into the month of June.  Overall, this month has looked like a drier month, but remember it only takes around three hours to get five inches of rain. In May, most of the rain fell in just a few hours.

Kansas City is sitting at 0.03″ for this first week of June, and there is no chance of rain until at least next Tuesday. So, this will mean that the first dozen days of June were dry from around KCI Airport northward. Around an inch of rain did fall in a few spots Sunday from that band of showers and thunderstorms that formed near and south of I-70.  It only takes a few hours and you can get a lot of rain, so to get to our forecast of 3 to 4 inches of rain your area will have to be targeted at least two or three times. That may be the maximum for this months weather.

Have a great Tuesday and thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary