A Look Into Our Next Storm

/A Look Into Our Next Storm

A Look Into Our Next Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Thursday: GREAT WEATHER with sunshine, low humidity and warm.  Highs 77-80 degrees with no chance of rain
  • Friday: Becoming humid with south winds returning. Highs warming back into the 80s

The Cycling Weather Pattern

We often show the biggest, most amplified features to showcase the LRC. These are usually deeps storms or big ridges.  The entire weather pattern is cycling and beginning last December and in the months since we showcased dozens of examples with map to map, cycle to cycle comparisons.  Here is one of the flatter features coming into the western states in the next week. Look at how it compares, and 236 days before next week, or 59 times 4:

The map on the left is what happened in this part of our first cycle of this years pattern, and the map on the right is the European model forecast for this same part of the pattern due in within the next week. This will likely create a strong surface storm by late this weekend:

This is the surface forecast from the European model valid one week from tonight on June 13th. Storm chasers will be paying close attention to this set up as a strong surface low is forecast to form over South Dakota with a trailing cold front into Kansas.  The warm front is forecast to stretch out from this low across Minnesota and this is likely where the biggest risk of severe weather will be located.  It’s a week out, but it is our next storm system and it fits the LRC perfectly.

Well, we are around a week away from our next storm system. This will provide an entire week to dry out with almost no chance of rain at all. Remember this is the wettest time of the year, on average.  Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June. Here are the graphics from a few days ago when we looked into the month of June.  Overall, this month has looked like a drier month, but remember it only takes around three hours to get five inches of rain. In May, most of the rain fell in just a few hours.

Kansas City is sitting at 0.03″ for this first week of June, and there is no chance of rain until at least next Tuesday. So, this will mean that the first dozen days of June were dry from around KCI Airport northward. Around an inch of rain did fall in a few spots Sunday from that band of showers and thunderstorms that formed near and south of I-70.  It only takes a few hours and you can get a lot of rain, so to get to our forecast of 3 to 4 inches of rain your area will have to be targeted at least two or three times. That may be the maximum for this months weather.

Have a great Tuesday and thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-06-07T08:30:46+00:00 June 6th, 2017|General|14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. CRW June 6, 2017 at 7:14 am - Reply

    Here comes the drought…..

    • Anonymous June 6, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

      Um, no. We are over on the rain and there are several opportunities for rain in June. At least in Lawrence, nothing even approaching a drought.

    • Richard June 6, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

      Yep

      • Steve June 6, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

        You Right!

  2. Kurt June 6, 2017 at 9:44 am - Reply

    I am not saying this will be an exceptional drought, but I would think we’d be abnormally dry on the next week’s drought monitor followed by moderate drought. These storms are way too hit and miss and there is a large area north of Kansas City that is now about 2 to 3 inches below normal year-to-date. It may be more than that in areas in Northeast Missouri.

    Thinks looks pretty good now but depending on the amount of heat and wind we get it could change. Or some of us get lucky to get some decent rains.

  3. REAL HUMEDUDE June 6, 2017 at 10:42 am - Reply

    So Rain on Tuesday, more rain to finish up the month, green lush vegetation, and we are going to have a drought? Even if we do dry out now, the impacts will be much less severe than 2012. It never did rain substantially at my place that Spring, so our hay crop never even started to grow. Beans were only knee high, never had any subsoil moisture to work with from day 1. Completely opposite situation now, flooded several times this Spring and the fields are lush with tons of available moisture. Our hay crop is already locked, , my ponds are full to the max, as a cattle man what am I worried about at this point? The only thing I see coming this summer are 2-3 week dry spells, aka summer time in KS/MO since that’s just what it does every year unless its abnormally wet. It also gets HOT, but since we have hardly seen any heat this year I dare say its just a normally hot summer like it always is. Nothing special or extraordinary this year, sorry to bring you down off your drought buzz guys.

    • Kurt June 6, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

      Hume you’re a world of difference in your area down there, I think you are 10 to 15 inches above normal YTD, where many areas north of the metro are 2 to 4 inches below normal YTD. Yes, our hay crop is excellent up here, but beans are only about 2 to 3 inches tall up here and corn is only about a foot high. Maybe we have lots of subsoil moisture. Just have to wait and see. We hit 95 yesterday in St. Joseph. At least the next few days are cooler. I’d be interested in hearing from other farmers in northern and central Missouri to see how their crops are doing and if they are good on subsoil moisture.

      • Joe June 6, 2017 at 2:02 pm - Reply

        Kurt,

        Our farm is in North Missouri and our crops are good, good sub-soil moisture as well. Crops throughout Missouri will be fine this harvest, regardless of whether or not we get any additional substantial rains. Would a shot or two of rain help in June or July? Sure, but unless we have constant 95 plus degree days with lots of wind and zero moisture, as Hume said, nothing to worry about. You know your giving Dobber plenty of material to work with right? 😀

  4. Richard June 6, 2017 at 11:29 am - Reply
    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 6, 2017 at 12:02 pm - Reply

      thanks for the Reminder Richard, lost a lot of good men that day. Every single one of them, along with the allied troops, should be honored daily.

  5. Cody June 6, 2017 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    I know both Gary and the farmers almanac has us being dry for June but July the almanac has us being above average for precip in July. I’m anxious to see what Gary has to say about the rainfall amount for July

    • Gary June 6, 2017 at 5:15 pm - Reply

      I am forecasting a bit below average rainfall this summer.

      Gary

  6. KS Jones June 6, 2017 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    On average, we get one inch more rain in June than in May, and our average rainfall for June is roughly 5.5″. We got 0.2″ of rain on June 1st and none since. The ten day forecast shows we have a chance of getting another 0.55″ between now and the 15th.
    Our high temperature reached 94.8° yesterday. That was nearly 14° above normal, but it was a comfortable dry heat.
    We’ve had above normal temperatures all month so far, and the forecast is showing that will continue for the next 10 days.
    Crops look good and we have plenty of subsoil moisture, so all is well.
    https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:66411.1.99999

  7. Richard June 6, 2017 at 6:46 pm - Reply

    Gary
    the blog after this one, “Backdoor cold front”, is it yours ? Because it says By Fake Adminfortests. Also has todays date but starts out with Good morning bloggers as if it was the first one for today.
    0 comments on it.

    Weird

Leave A Comment