A Dry & Calm Week Ahead

/A Dry & Calm Week Ahead

A Dry & Calm Week Ahead

Good Monday morning bloggers,

The weather has become rather calm over most of the nation.  For storm chasers this is going to be a very inactive week. Look at today’s risk:

The only serious risk of a severe thunderstorm developing is located over the rare location of Montana southwest into Idaho.  How often do we say that?  Let’s look at the upper flow forecast by Friday Night:

A big storm will be moving into the Pacific northwest states by the end of the week. This will allow a ridge to build over the middle part of the nation.  This storm will be monitored closely. What usually happens in the June version of these storm systems is that they will create the conditions for a cap to build over the plains and thus limit any severe thunderstorm potential until the storm moves by.  This is why northwest flow is more preferred for severe thunderstorms during the summer.

Rainfall Forecast Next 7 Days:

A rather dry week is in the forecast with the exception of the Pacific northwest and areas out east. Look at what is forecast for the seven days after this week:

These next seven days are somewhat suspect. At this time of the year it only takes three hours to get five inches of rain if the thunderstorms line up over your location.

Have a great day. Let’s see how this all sets up!

Gary

2017-06-06T11:39:00+00:00 June 5th, 2017|General|17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Snow Miser June 5, 2017 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Nobody’s responded to this one yet so I thought I’d stick this comment here.

  2. Bill in Lawrence June 5, 2017 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Gary:
    Good beautiful early June morning to you sir. With the early fog this morning and the birds just waking up, the Washington Creek valley floor was absolutely stunning. We have really had a very nice stretch of weather these past few weeks; overall it does not get much better for this area in my very humble opinion.

    I hit the lottery yesterday as my area was underneath one of the thunderstorms. I picked up close to ¾ of an inch which gives me close to two inches over the past 9 days; no, none of it ran into the ponds or lakes, but it has been absolutely perfect!!! I am counting my blessings!!!

    It is interesting that while the models are showing it dry and with a ridge over the next 10 days, it does not appear to be all that hot. Looking at both the 0Z and 06Z GFS, I did not see one 90 degree high over the next 10 days. I of course could have missed something as I ran through it pretty quickly and of course both could be off a bit, but if that is indeed the case, I could well buy another 10 days without turning on the AC.

    Not that this is very hard to do, but this LRC has pretty much put a clown suit on me for these past few months. While I did think we would get enough rain I sure never thought my pond would fill nor did I think I could make it (if the temps on the models are correct) to June 12th or later without turning on my AC in this LRC.

    It is sure going to be interesting to see how the summer version lines up. I am so happy with the weather at the moment. While I do think this summer will produce just enough, I also believe it will it try our patience at times. Or, I could just keep wearing the clown suit!!! 🙂

    Have a great Monday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  3. Brad June 5, 2017 at 8:04 am - Reply

    Gary, I believe todays risk for severe weather is centered over far southern Texas near Brownsville, Pacific NW such as Idaho and Montana look perfectly fine with no severe weather to be problemed with…

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    -brad

  4. MMike June 5, 2017 at 8:11 am - Reply

    Oh Bill, you are funny!!…clown suit. I think you have done a great job on your analysis.

    Yes, the thunderstorms were very slow movers, we had flooding down at our warehouse near the downtown airport, our rain gauge had 2.23 inches in it. Had some water in the warehouse.

    Nothing near my house though. Although a drier weather pattern, not so bad for keeping up. The humidity has been so high and the winds very light, if you have been watering you likely have noticed that the water/moisture is staying down. This past weekend was perfect for watering.

    Weather looks less hot and very comfortable starting tonight and lasting through the week. Perfect!

  5. Doug June 5, 2017 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Good rain yesterday near 143rd and Switzer 1.1″ and we have had over 2.5″ over the past two weeks.

  6. Kurt June 5, 2017 at 8:55 am - Reply

    No rain this weekend and other than spotty showers, no rain since the Saturday before memorial day around St. Joseph. Good hay weather, but the corn doesn’t look to good up here. Not sure how much rain it needs, but looks like it really needs a good drink.

    So could the yards up here, starting to show a little sign of stress and today will be the third 90 degree day up here. Not sure if Bill in Lawrence is cooler because of his location, but my A/C is on and thankful it works

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 5, 2017 at 3:42 pm - Reply

      dang man, it’s like another planet up there! The early corn down here, and I’m not kidding,is pushing 3′ tall already. Even the later corn is doing great, no problem at all to be high as your eye by 4th of July. we will need another few rains when it tassels and when the ears are filling. Corn has roots that can go more than 8′ down, meaning it could stop raining completely and it would still have plenty of subsoil moisture in these parts for the next month or more.

      • Kurt June 5, 2017 at 4:18 pm - Reply

        There is some corn up here maybe 1 foot tall, that was planted earlier, but the corn planted mid May time frame is only about 8 inches tall and really dull green, not the really vibrant green we had the last couple of years. Lots of weeds in the corn fields that were planted late too. Hit 94 up here, while the hottest and most days have been cooler, just haven’t had really regular wide spread rains up here except late April and right before Memorial Day. Not a drought by no means, but certainly not wet up here. Like I said I think the farmers could use a good drink after their hay is done.

  7. Craig June 5, 2017 at 12:48 pm - Reply

    Admittedly it’s 8 days away but the GFS has a decent severe weather event forecast for next Tuesday.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

  8. Richard June 5, 2017 at 1:59 pm - Reply

    Gary

    Whats up
    Had to scroll past 2 blogs under this one to get to yesterdays.
    This has been happening more often but usually only one blog down

  9. Richard June 5, 2017 at 2:01 pm - Reply

    Drought coming

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 5, 2017 at 3:44 pm - Reply

      not anytime soon Richard! you hit the winter forecast, but I’m thinking your going to bust on a drought call. The systems have been producing well around d here all Sprung long, I see plenty of fronts coming this summer to help out right when we think it’s going to be terrible it will break (my hope right now)

      • Richard June 5, 2017 at 6:07 pm - Reply

        Hope you’re right Hume
        I really hope you are right

      • CRW June 5, 2017 at 9:43 pm - Reply

        The spigot has been turned off REAL HUMEDUDE….

    • CRW June 5, 2017 at 9:42 pm - Reply

      Indeed the drought is coming. I remain unimpressed with the recent precipitation in May. The further the jet moves north and the stronger the ridges become, the less precipitation. Gary knows this….

  10. MMike June 5, 2017 at 9:51 pm - Reply

    Drought has been coming since 2012…

    It’s bound to hit one summer..

    We have a little dry spell and the drought freaks emerge. We had a very dry June last year and then summer ended up with 15-20 inches of rain. Drought talk was non stop then too. Ya just never know!

    We have ridges every year…

    • CRW June 6, 2017 at 7:12 am - Reply

      With all due respect, looking at the indicators this time, this year, a drought looks more likely with the strong ridges and the northward retreating jet stream. As far as drought “freeks”, uncalled for and rude.

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