Is Severe Weather Season Over?

/Is Severe Weather Season Over?

Is Severe Weather Season Over?

Good morning,

There is a weak upper level low over the southern plains with a very weak wave of energy moving in from the south. This will produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas. For Kansas City, a few small showers and thunderstorms are likely, but they will move slowly and most areas will stay dry. There is a chance one could form near you however, so keep your eye to the sky as the clouds could be quite pretty as they build up around our are once the sun has had a chance to warm us into the 80s by noon.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Sunday: A great morning followed by a warm and muggy afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are likely today and Sunday. But, the chance of one forming right over your head is 20%. Highs in the middle 80s with light southeast winds.


Rarely is severe weather season cut off by June 1st.  The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and we know that those ridges will return on schedule and be stronger as we move into summer. Our weather team at Weather2020 has been forecasting these ridges to strengthen in June and July, but how strong will they become?  And, with our knowledge of this cycling pattern we know that more storm systems will make it into the Pacific northwest. How strong will these be and will they force the ridges to weaken and push east or will these storm systems ride over the top of the ridges creating longer term heat waves?  This is something we are expecting to happen, to have a few of the ridges become too strong for these storm systems to penetrate, but which one will “stick” and create a heat wave?  The pattern right now appears to be capable of producing one of those stronger ridges and it has been showing up on some of the models. Either way, the severe weather season may have ended as there is nothing showing up that would produce a good storm chase for the tornado chasers out there in the next ten days.

The forecast for Monday night shows one of he ridges leaning from southwest to northeast, and this configuration is going to help bring a backdoor front through the eastern and central plains states.  And, you can see one of the storm systems that earlier in the cycling pattern would have tracked much farther south, but we are now seeing the summer version of this years LRC and this storm is begin deflected over the ridge.

Around a week from today a stronger storm is forecast to move into the Pacific northwest and another ridge will build over the plains. Will this storm be strong enough to break down the ridge, push it east, and create a severe weather risk?  This is something we will be monitoring.

Tornado stats by state:

Have a great day and we will see how all of this sets up soon.  For now, it appears we will have mostly a dry next ten days or so. There will be a few afternoon and evening isolated showers or thunderstorms possible as well, but these will be small and move slowly.

Gary

2017-06-05T06:45:04+00:00 June 3rd, 2017|General|14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Brian June 3, 2017 at 7:46 am - Reply

    Good morning from Austin, Minnesota. I’m surprised too see that the forecast up here is the same as back home in KC. It was in the upper 80’s here yesterday with some pop up showers around.

    Here’s to hoping having a sprinkler system installed this year will be like buying a snowblower, and I won’t need to use it.

    • Gary June 3, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

      Goofed morning to Austin, Minnesota. It is heating up!

      Gary

      • Richard June 3, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        goofed ? Lol

  2. SteveA June 3, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

    Gary, you mentioned you were going to post your summer fcast maps today. change of plan?

    • Gary June 3, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

      No, it was just such a busy week. I will post them early in the week.

      Gary

  3. Mr. Pete June 3, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

    It was nice at the K last night. Vargas was amazing

  4. j-ox June 3, 2017 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    Gary, will we have a typical humid Summer?

  5. KS Jones June 3, 2017 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    The high temperature was 5° above normal yesterday, and the highs are predicted to be above average for the next nine days, with days 7, 8 & 9 hitting 91°. If so, that will be much warmer than normal, and there is no rain in that ten day forecast. The nearest weather observatory is seven miles away (as the crow flies), and the link to that ten day forecast is pasted below.
    https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:66411.1.99999

  6. Richard June 3, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    I plan to see this film. Denial does not negate it. We are not just talking USA here. It is our planet. Our home. Climate change is about extreme weather events, not just warming.

    https://www.facebook.com/ParamountPicturesAU/videos/10158492502300215/

    • Rockdoc June 3, 2017 at 1:52 pm - Reply

      Looks like a Great film. I’m looking forward to it. It’s real, it’s now, it’s our Planet 🌎🌍🌏

      Thanks for the heads-up Richard. Opening August 24th! 🤗

  7. Rockdoc June 3, 2017 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    Good Afternoon Gary and Fellow Weather Bloggers. Wow, what an arrival of warm temps. May was on the cooler side and now we’re jumping into the fry pan. July we’ll be in the oven if persistent ridges form over the central part of the country.

    Gary, what would allow for the Pacific storms to break through the ridge? Would the steering winds aloft slow down and not be as strong? What about the 700mb and 850mb layers since I imagine the storms could “sneak” under the 500mb. Just wondering from a scientific view point.

    I forgot to congratulate you on your Anniversary. Congratulations on being here in KC for 25 years and bring your passion of weather here! KUDOS 🤗🎂🎉

    • Gary June 3, 2017 at 3:31 pm - Reply

      They just need to be strong enough. Through the entire summer there are a few candidates (strong Pacific storms) that may be able to push the ridge south and east. But, the chance of them coming farther south is low as summer approaches.

      Gary

      • Rockdoc June 3, 2017 at 3:58 pm - Reply

        What makes a storm strong enough? A deep low that is tightly wound up so there is a large pressure gradient? Just wondering what I should look for on model maps. Thanks 😊

        • Gary June 3, 2017 at 6:29 pm - Reply

          Great question! Let’s watch the one due in around seven days from now. It will make sense if we monitor a real time example.

          Gary

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