Good morning bloggers,
The analysis of the cycling pattern as described by the LRC is always a day to day operation. Here is what we know:
- The same pattern that set up last fall continues to cycle today
- We started cycle 5 of this years pattern within the past week
- The same pattern that created the conditions for very low snowfall totals and dry weather during the winter became rather wet in some spots as we moved into spring
- This same pattern is now moving into summer and we are forecasting a hot summer with above average temperatures in many areas
If we go back and look into the first cycle of this years pattern we can see those ridges were quite strong:
How did this pattern become much wetter in the spring? In LRC Cycle 4, the one just completed, the ridges were transient. In other words, these ridges were all there, but they were forced to move through the flow. They did this during the winter as well, but there was very low moisture availability from the Gulf of Mexico. Once we moved into spring the moisture supply was injected into the transient flow and we ended up with a rather active and consistently interesting weather pattern with nice consistent rainfall patterns. I can see how this could have been forecasted a bit better, but it was still one of those forecasts that we have to go spend more time on to make sure we learn for next year, because not every spring pattern is wet. This one just set up rather nicely for a wet pattern.
The concern is now that we are moving into summer and the jet stream is retreating that once these ridges return, they may very well be much stronger and the flow from the Pacific may move over the ridges instead of pushing them across. As you can see above, in Cycle 1 of this pattern there were rather pronounced ridges on October 22, November 4, November 9, and November 20. This part of the pattern will be cycling through during the next 40 days.
The Climate Prediction Center Summer Forecast:
The CPC has put out this forecast for temperatures. The big white area can be interpreted as the best area for below average temperatures. If you go back and look at our winter forecast, it could not be more opposite from this. Remember, we are in the same pattern that continues to cycle from last fall through the winter, spring, and now into summer. The pattern will not change until next fall. Our Weather2020 forecast is for above average temperatures pretty much where this forecast above has equal chances. And,we are forecasting below average rainfall this summer over close to that same area. I will post our maps tomorrow after I get them from my computer at work.
From The Weather2020 Winter Forecast:
In our winter forecast from November we plotted this map due to the ridges that had already developed in that first LRC Cycle. Those ridges are going to pop up much stronger in the next few weeks. More tomorrow.The weather pattern is calming down significantly. We will look back at tornado season tomorrow as well. Could it be over?
Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.