Good morning bloggers,

Here is the June Month Long Forecast:

The weather we area analyzing today:

  • The jet stream is retreating north and it is a really calm beginning to June
  • A “backdoor” cold front is in the forecast for early next week, what does that mean?
  • The cool rainy start to June did not produce a lot of rain. Is it about to dry out?
  • Is Tornado Season Over? We will take a look at the season tornado stats

The month of June begins awfully quiet across most of the United States. Here are the watches, warnings, and advisories as of 8 AM this morning. As you can see almost the entire United States is advisory free with very few exceptions:

There was an area of rain early this morning near Kansas City and near the Gulf coast, but otherwise June is beginning very calm.

Take a look at the biggest reason why:

The jet stream has shifted north. This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above the surface, valid today at 7 PM. The jet stream has retreated way up to near the USA/Canada border.

The flow aloft continues to retreat northward and by Monday the jet stream is forecast to be mostly north of the United States. That orange curvy colored line shows where the backdoor cold front will be located. What did I say? “Backdoor”?  Take a look at Mondays surface map:

I had to draw the cold front in black, it is supposed to be blue, because my paint program will not produce a blue color for me on this map for some reason. Anyway, you can see the front which will be called a backdoor front if it comes in from the northeast direction. If it has that easterly component to it, then we call it coming in from the backdoor. This one seems to be oriented that way and it should become a bit more obvious by Monday as it develops.  There could be a few thunderstorms near the wind shift line, but I am not convinced of that at the moment.

What happens next, at around 10 days, is a dip in the jet stream out west.  There is still a ridge over the plains however, in fact there is a ridge on all three of our plotted upper level maps today.  When the jet stream drops near the west coast at day 10 I will begin wondering how strong the ridge and heating will be ahead of this next shift in the pattern. Some models cut off the chances for wide spread rain and build in some heat in ten to 15 days.  We will have to monitor this closely.

So, here we are moving into June. Summer begins in three weeks.  I am still forecasting Kansas City’s first 100 degree day at KCI Airport in almost four years (September 8, 2013) to happen this summer and a few times.

Tornadoes by state so far this season:

  1. Georgia:  126
  2. Texas:  118
  3. Missouri:  91
  4. Louisiana:  67
  5. Mississippi:  63
  6. Kansas:  54
  7. Illinois:  51
  8. Oklahoma: 50
  9. Alabama:  40
  10. Iowa:  31
  11. Arkansas:  25
  12. Kentucky:  20
  13. South Carolina:  19
  14. Tennessee:  19
  15. Virginia:  18
  16. Indiana:  18
  17. Pennsylvania:  11
  18. Ohio:  10
  19. Wisconsin:  9
  20. Colorado:  9
  21. New Mexico:  8
  22. North Carolina:  7
  23. Minnesota:  6
  24. Nebraska:  5
  25. 16 States have not had one tornado reported yet in 2017.

I am not sure if the most glaring thing from looking at the top 24 states is that Georgia is really way in the lead with 126, when you consider the size of Georgia vs. Texas, but perhaps the fact the Nebraska has had only five tornadoes at this point of the season? Their season starts a bit later, but that is a really low total and indicative of how this pattern has produced that hot spot off to the east.

Gary