A Calm Beginning To June

/A Calm Beginning To June

A Calm Beginning To June

Good morning bloggers,

Here is the June Month Long Forecast:

The weather we area analyzing today:

  • The jet stream is retreating north and it is a really calm beginning to June
  • A “backdoor” cold front is in the forecast for early next week, what does that mean?
  • The cool rainy start to June did not produce a lot of rain. Is it about to dry out?
  • Is Tornado Season Over? We will take a look at the season tornado stats

The month of June begins awfully quiet across most of the United States. Here are the watches, warnings, and advisories as of 8 AM this morning. As you can see almost the entire United States is advisory free with very few exceptions:

There was an area of rain early this morning near Kansas City and near the Gulf coast, but otherwise June is beginning very calm.

Take a look at the biggest reason why:

The jet stream has shifted north. This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above the surface, valid today at 7 PM. The jet stream has retreated way up to near the USA/Canada border.

The flow aloft continues to retreat northward and by Monday the jet stream is forecast to be mostly north of the United States. That orange curvy colored line shows where the backdoor cold front will be located. What did I say? “Backdoor”?  Take a look at Mondays surface map:

I had to draw the cold front in black, it is supposed to be blue, because my paint program will not produce a blue color for me on this map for some reason. Anyway, you can see the front which will be called a backdoor front if it comes in from the northeast direction. If it has that easterly component to it, then we call it coming in from the backdoor. This one seems to be oriented that way and it should become a bit more obvious by Monday as it develops.  There could be a few thunderstorms near the wind shift line, but I am not convinced of that at the moment.

What happens next, at around 10 days, is a dip in the jet stream out west.  There is still a ridge over the plains however, in fact there is a ridge on all three of our plotted upper level maps today.  When the jet stream drops near the west coast at day 10 I will begin wondering how strong the ridge and heating will be ahead of this next shift in the pattern. Some models cut off the chances for wide spread rain and build in some heat in ten to 15 days.  We will have to monitor this closely.

So, here we are moving into June. Summer begins in three weeks.  I am still forecasting Kansas City’s first 100 degree day at KCI Airport in almost four years (September 8, 2013) to happen this summer and a few times.

Tornadoes by state so far this season:

  1. Georgia:  126
  2. Texas:  118
  3. Missouri:  91
  4. Louisiana:  67
  5. Mississippi:  63
  6. Kansas:  54
  7. Illinois:  51
  8. Oklahoma: 50
  9. Alabama:  40
  10. Iowa:  31
  11. Arkansas:  25
  12. Kentucky:  20
  13. South Carolina:  19
  14. Tennessee:  19
  15. Virginia:  18
  16. Indiana:  18
  17. Pennsylvania:  11
  18. Ohio:  10
  19. Wisconsin:  9
  20. Colorado:  9
  21. New Mexico:  8
  22. North Carolina:  7
  23. Minnesota:  6
  24. Nebraska:  5
  25. 16 States have not had one tornado reported yet in 2017.

I am not sure if the most glaring thing from looking at the top 24 states is that Georgia is really way in the lead with 126, when you consider the size of Georgia vs. Texas, but perhaps the fact the Nebraska has had only five tornadoes at this point of the season? Their season starts a bit later, but that is a really low total and indicative of how this pattern has produced that hot spot off to the east.

Gary

2017-06-05T16:56:46+00:00 June 1st, 2017|General|24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. MMike June 1, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

    The LRC forecast for May was pretty much perfect as far as a the calendar shown in late April. Drier first half and a wetter/stormier second half. The days of rain forecasted were pretty darn good.

    I had close to 5.6 inches for the month of May west of Liberty, about .40 above average. Officially KC was above average on moisture and below on temps for the month of May. Matter of fact, I believe May finished below average on temps from Texas to the northern Plains for most areas. That’s 4 out of 5 months this year above average on moisture for KC. There are areas locally that have had less total moisture, but, that’s just a matter of a big thunderstorm missing that one little gauge.

    As far as meteorological spring, Dodge City, to north central KS, down to SE KS through most of MO saw what would be called an above average moisture spring. Many areas plenty above average. Record river levels at times in MO.(Bad flooding) The one area that just didn’t catch the extra convective rains was NW MO, but, other then that area it has been a rather active and wet pattern. However, NW MO has had very well timed rains plus cool weather periods and the vegetation is still in great shape. Obviously, we will need to keep that going as summer is setting in. We have not hit 90 yet this year.

    So, who thinks summer will be dry and hot? Who thinks this pattern continues and we see just enough rain. Will we have drought headlines this summer at all? Who thinks it will be a cooler and wetter summer then average. Last (2) summers were wet. Will it hit a 100 degrees officially?

    Spring was above average on moisture for most folks in KS. and MO. Will summer follow suit?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 1, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

      I think we continue to get enough rain, and summer will be hot like usual but not full of 100f days either. I’m still convinced we don’t hit it once, where has the heat been all year for this to suddenly manifest? I don’t buy it

      who cares about that anyway, when we have enormous story unfolding today. US leaving Paris climate pact, disgraceful for us to not finish what we started here. When China, Russia, India, all acknowledge we need to do better, the leader of free world drops out? that’s leading from the rear. The message is clear, dig and consume as much coal and fossil fuels as we possibly can, despite clear evidence this is harmful and we should be trending away from these fuels not doubling down on them. I’d like to hear somebody argue that a DIRTIER industrial footprint in the USA really helps us in any fashion? Are we are willing to exchange a few jobs for dirty water and air? when our unemployment is at near all time lows, makes no sense
      I’m ready for reasonable explanations for this act of out right stupidity

      • Dobber June 1, 2017 at 11:40 am - Reply

        Covfefe

        • REAL HUMEDUDE June 1, 2017 at 1:54 pm - Reply

          toche, Dobber, go
          Covfefe yourself
          lol

        • Adam June 1, 2017 at 1:54 pm - Reply

          Yes he does

      • Anonymous June 1, 2017 at 4:13 pm - Reply

        Hume, the stupidity is on your end. America is a sovereign nation, a global UN entity should not be writing laws that effect our sovereign nation. The Paris agreement, the name alone says it all, the French are always willing to give up their freedom. Why was it signed in Paris anyway, we are the largest provider of resources to the UN, yet we have to go to Paris to sign the illegal agreement. Look Hume, go raise cattle in Europe, you know you want to report to the government monthly every time your cattle fart.

        https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf

        When you are agreeing to give your sovereign right to be governed by a foreign entity, you better get permission from the people. That vote needs to occur in the house and senate. Obama worked only for the UN, don’t you see that? His entire agenda, all his talking points, come directly from the UN founded in their Resolutions. I have read them so I know, I don’t think you have read them. To he// with the UN and any involvement with that corrupt bunch of politicians and billionaires. A majority of the top 25 billionaires have pledged their estates at death over to the UN, the Billionaire Pledge, they are all in with this global governance. I for one believe only in God’s country, America.

        • KS Jones June 1, 2017 at 10:43 pm - Reply

          Don’t choke on your freedom-fries. The coal mines back east are going to see a decline regardless of what your demented carnival-barker does.
          The French helped us achieve Independence from Britain. Maybe you’ve heard of that war.
          The French & American governments signed the Treaty of Alliance on February 6, 1778.
          And then we depended on the French in World War One.
          http://www.usaww1.com/United-States-Naval-Aviation.php4
          After the declaration of war, it was the US Navy which sent the first American military unit to Europe. Its 130 man First Aeronautic Detachment made up of men from almost every state in the Union arrived in France on June 5, 1917 . . . At the end of two weeks, these same men started training under French instructors on 90 horsepower French Caudron G-3 aircraft.

      • Heat MIser June 1, 2017 at 10:56 pm - Reply

        Leaving the Paris Accord was awesome!!!! It was costing us too much, it was unbinding anyway, too many countries like China and India weren’t having to do any reducing, and the amount we were to reduce C2O emissions was minimal anyway. Besides, our technology has been reducing emissions long before this accord came about. So, the agreement was not binding, not followed by the worst countries as far as c2o is concerned, minimally effective, and expensive. I am so happy we are out of it, and if the liberals are screaming that it means the end of the world, you know it was the right thing to do. Thank you President Trump for standing up for America! WOO HOO!!!!

        • Dakota June 2, 2017 at 7:26 am - Reply

          I think it’s telling that people who support Trump’s decision aren’t even educated enough to know that the chemical formula for Carbon Dioxide is CO2, and not C2O.

    • KS Jones June 1, 2017 at 12:26 pm - Reply

      <>

      We hit 90° on March 19th.
      Our total rainfall for May was roughly average for this zone (4.69″).
      Got a burst of rain at noon today, and the radar shows a bit more is on the way.

    • KS Jones June 1, 2017 at 1:30 pm - Reply

      http://www.weather.gov/media/top/climate/Topeka_temp_daily_high_low_normals.pdf
      The link pasted above shows normal daily high & low temperatures for Topeka.
      Our ten-day forecast shows we’ll be above those normal highs every day.

  2. REAL HUMEDUDE June 1, 2017 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Another .8″ yesterday from a strong t-storm, Ended with 7.2″ for May after all said and done. Avoided the hail at our place, Rich hill got a good dose but I heard it was fairly small like nickels and dimes mostly so I hope the local crops there escaped significant damage. Need some dry weather now, about hay season in the region so everyone is chomping at bit to get some hay cut and baled.

  3. Steve S June 1, 2017 at 9:18 am - Reply

    Gary what’s the forecast for Bella Vista, Ar for Saturday, Sunday Monday?

  4. Kurt June 1, 2017 at 10:16 am - Reply

    They might already be doing hay up here, but corn could use a good drink right now. So could the beans I think there are many places up north of Kansas City that could use some good rains to keep things green and growing.

    The grass here at work is starting to brown up and that’s any real heat.

  5. Kurt June 1, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

    I mean that’s without any real heat yet.

  6. Kurt June 1, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Since St. Joseph had the 92 degree day last Month, I think we will hit 100 at least 5 or 6 times this year (at least in St. Joseph). Also I think it will continue to be a struggle to reach normal precip here in NW MO, unless something can change the orientation of the moisture axis and we can start getting some good convection setups. However, I think the ridge is going to strengthen and intensify the head maybe gradually and the rains that have been plentiful in areas will taper off dramatically for June, July and August.

    I think St. Joseph has had the opposite of Kansas City with 4 of the last 5 months below normal on precipitation.

    • MMike June 1, 2017 at 9:30 pm - Reply

      Kurt,

      You your self have reported over 13 inches for the spring season in your back yard per your blog posts….which is above average for the spring.

      St. Joe has had 3 out of the 5 months above average officially per the NWS.

  7. Craig June 1, 2017 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    Gary, any thoughts on that growing cluster out by Topeka? Could it grow/morph into a little mini-MCS and turn SE along the front?

    • Craig June 1, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

      I guess not.

  8. Larry June 1, 2017 at 1:52 pm - Reply

    Did I miss the June forecast last night at 10:00?

  9. Kurt June 1, 2017 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    Here is an interesting link showing departure from normal as of June 1, 2017 year to date:

    Part of northeast Missouri has been missed by some of these rains and most of north central Missouri into and around Kansas City is near normal plus or minus a couple inches.

    https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?loc=stateAZ

    I am not sure if that will open to what I selected or not. Also interesting to see the percent of normal, seems to cut off right at the state line north of the Missouri River in most places or just the very western edge of Missouri has had more rain than the counties to the east.

    • MMike June 1, 2017 at 9:34 pm - Reply

      Kurt,

      You sure on your dry forecast? You were certain the that it would be dry in the spring and you finished above overall.

      I know you haven’t had the brunt of the heavier rains and that happens every year in a wet pattern. There will always be a few spots that miss. But, as I mentioned 90 percent of MO an KS have had a wetter spring then usual. Just look at the lake report for every lake, I haven’t found a lake below normal yet in KS or MO. There might be s few but most are above normal and some way above normal.

  10. John Sickels June 1, 2017 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    My prediction for summer is slightly above-average temperatures with average precipitation. No massive drought. There will be a few small mini-heat waves and we’ll hit 100 a couple of times but most areas will avoid serious drought. The crops will be fine.

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