Good morning bloggers,

We will begin todays blog with the rainfall amount from south Overland Park. Sunny The Weather Dog shows us the 2.04″ that has fallen from this storm as of early this morning. KCI Airport had over 3″ and the amounts varied quite a bit depending on if you were in the direct path of the cores of these thunderstorms or not. The rainfall rates were in the 2 to 3″ per hour level and today will likely have similar results.

The radar this morning is pretty dry across Kansas. The longer it takes for thunderstorms to form, the more likely it is that the sun will come out and warm things up a bit. It is now May 19th and today poses some very difficult challenges.

Yesterday, the SPC forecast of the High Risk actually verified in the high risk area, but it just didn’t live up to what a High Risk is supposed to mean. This is actually a good thing as we avoided a major disaster.  Here are the storm reports from Thursday:

19 tornado reports and 351 total reports are still a lot, but not quite what a major outbreak is usually expected to produce. This would likely not be considered a major severe weather outbreak.

The models are all over the place on the prediction of what will happen today.  Let’s look at the 8 AM surface map and see if we can identify anything important:

 

The SPC could very well be undergoing today as much as it overdid yesterday. I am not sure yet as todays set up is so complex. Take a look:

It could go from a very slight risk to major severe thunderstorms very quickly.  This rarely happens, but there have been other rather slight risk days that have blown into very bad days. One of the Moore, OK tornado days was one of them when there was a rather slight risk that suddenly came together. We just have to monitor how this sets up today because there is a very strong storm system aloft to our west.

Thunderstorms did just start forming south and west of Emporia as I was finishing this blog entry. So, let’s monitor this new development and see how warm it gets out ahead of it.

Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. IT’S FRIDAY!

Gary