The Strong Storm Approaches

/The Strong Storm Approaches

The Strong Storm Approaches

Good evening bloggers,

This is Jeff Penner with an update:

We have been tracking two storm systems this week with the first one now in eastern Canada.  This was the system from Wednesday that a Tornado Watch was issued, now we are dealing with the second storm system and this is much bigger and again a Tornado Watch has been issued in KC without much happening again….so far.  PDS watches (Particularly Dangerous Situation) were issued out west, but the long track and strong tornadoes fortunately have not materialized as of 7:30 PM. There have been a few tornadoes, however.  So, let’s get into the forecast as it is a complex set up tonight through Friday night.

Here are the locations of the two storm systems as of of Friday evening.  There is quite a snowstorm ongoing in Colorado as a very large area of rain and thunderstorms is occurring from Kansas to Texas.  The tornado activity has been less that expected, so far, as there have been so many thunderstorms, making for less supercells.

THURSDAY 6 PM: Temperatures ranged from 90° in Dallas to 32° in Casper, WY.  What a storm!  The warm front extends from the main surface low in the western Oklahoma panhandle to central Illinois.  The placement of this warm front will be the key to where the highest tornado threat is located on Friday.

FRIDAY MORNING: The big thunderstorms now in western and central Kansas will roll through our area between 11 PM and 8 AM.  These will contain very heavy rain and possibly some damaging winds.  These thunderstorms will mess up the surface wind pattern and it looks like the real warm front will get pushed south.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: This data below suggests the real warm front will stay to the south.  This means we have potential for very heavy rain and flash flooding along with large hail and damaging winds with little to no tornado threat.  Now, let’s be very careful here.  The warm front position is not set in stone and it could easily lift to around I-70 tomorrow evening.  If this happens the tornado threat increases tremendously along with the flash flooding threat.  We will have to see how this evolves Friday morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: The main storm and cold front will move by and this will end the rain chances early Saturday leading to a decent weekend, regardless of where the warm front sets up Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL FORECAST:  This is from the 18z GFS and is quite incredible with total rainfall in the area of 3″ to almost 7″.  Is this right?  Well, again we have to see how things set up.  You can get 2-3″ of rain in one hour with this situation.  It is going to depend where the warm front sets up and the track of the thunderstorms.  Needless to say, most locations should see 1″ to 3″ of rain, but we will have to be on the look out for locations where it gets excessive and that is why there is a Flash Flood watch  in effect through Saturday morning.  Remember “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

This is the latest GFS model, the other models are wet too. It will be interesting to watch this happen in the next 30 hours.

Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

2017-05-19T11:12:32+00:00 May 18th, 2017|General|11 Comments


  1. Richrd May 18, 2017 at 7:47 pm - Reply

    Severe tstorm warning for Franklin and Anderson now. I hear thunder in Olathe .coming sooner than expected

  2. Richard May 18, 2017 at 7:48 pm - Reply

    Severe tstorm warning for Franklin and Anderson now. I hear thunder in Olathe.
    It looks like coming sooner than expected

  3. Dave May 18, 2017 at 8:11 pm - Reply

    What about tonight?

  4. Richard May 18, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    Lezak on Facebook live now i can’t get it. Anyone ?

  5. Rockdoc May 18, 2017 at 8:39 pm - Reply

    Thank You Jeff! We just received severe TS warning for parts of Johnson and Wyandotte Counties. Thunder is off in distance. Prairie Village is on eastern edge. I’m on my patio listening to Radio Swiss Jazz with evening birds chirping. Distant rumbles of thunder as I watch radar and enjoy glass of vino 🍷🤗

    Kiddos 🐈🐈are out but close by in case we have to seek shelter. Just preplaced flashlights around house. Take care everybody. Enjoy the rain and hope we don’t get large size hail 😊

  6. Rockdoc May 18, 2017 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    Looks like I-70 -435 corridor is getting nailed. Moving north!!!

  7. Joe K May 18, 2017 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Looks like you are going t finally get that rain you have been asking for. Cheers

  8. stl78 May 18, 2017 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    What a contrast in temps today. It was 91 here in stl and I talked to my wife in mn where she said it was 51! I hope these storms stay below severe limits tom night as both me and my wife will be headed back to kc to pick up the kiddos and dog. Stay safe everyone

  9. Kstater May 18, 2017 at 9:08 pm - Reply

    First round skipped Lawrence to the east and west

  10. Heat MIser May 18, 2017 at 9:24 pm - Reply

    One of those storms in KC dropping golf ball sized hail

  11. shoedog May 18, 2017 at 10:28 pm - Reply

    Heavy rain small hail at 132 roe started about 10 quieted a little now second round of steady rain coming in

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