The End Of The Week Storm System Looks Strong

/The End Of The Week Storm System Looks Strong

The End Of The Week Storm System Looks Strong

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A Wind Advisory with winds gusting from the southwest up to nearly 50 mph at times this afternoon. There is a slight 20% chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm and we have to still watch them closely.  High:  78°
  • Tonight: Dry and windy with southwest to west winds 15-30 mph
  • Thursday: Dry with periods of clouds. The chance of rain is 0%.  The chance of rain increases after sunset. Severe weather is most likely well west of Kansas City, but again we have to see how it sets up.  High:  77°
  • Thursday night – Friday:  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely.  1 to 2 inches of rain are possible and some severe weather is likely in the area. Will it be too cool, or will the warm air surge in here for an increased severe weather risk. This is what we are monitoring closely for on the new data. High: 72°

This water vapor satellite picture shows the lead storm and the stronger storm system. There is a dry slot surging across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas this morning as the storm spins and closes off near the Nebraska/Kansas border early today. The second system can be seen in the  upper left corner of this picture.  Somehow this storm went by Kansas City with many spots getting just a few drops of rain.  KCI Airport had 0.o1″ around 7 AM this morning and that was the grand total for this lead storm system.  A much wetter looking storm is approaching, however, so hang on we aren’t done yet.

Kansas City rainfall the last two LRC seasons:

This lead storm is tracking into Iowa and Nebraska this morning. It will take most of the severe weather risk up to the north today:

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

As you can see above, the Storm Prediction Center already has a day 2 moderate risk, which is rare. This could be upgraded to a high risk if it really seems to be coming together tomorrow.  There are still a few big questions concerning Thursday into Fridays set up. Notice how Kansas City seems to avoid most of these big set ups.  I am still concerned about the set up for Friday closer to Kansas City. That day 3 set up could be impacted significantly by what happens late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Here is today’s tornado climatology for May 17:

We will analyze the Thursday-Friday-Saturday set ups in our next blog. Let’s see what happens today.  Thank you for participating in this weather experience!

Gary

 

 

 

2017-05-18T10:43:25+00:00 May 17th, 2017|General|47 Comments

47 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel May 17, 2017 at 7:58 am - Reply

    I recorded .29″ up here in Maryville, with very little wind. I did not have any twigs or branches in my yard this morning. Praying we miss the severe weather this afternoon and Friday. Happy “Hump Day” bloggers!
    Michael

  2. Three7s May 17, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Not seeing any chance of storms today, as you said. Everything should be up north. Friday is definitely going to be the day to watch.

  3. JDService May 17, 2017 at 8:45 am - Reply

    Gary,

    This Friday and Saturday is the class 1 and 2 state track championship in Jefferson City. Could you please give me your thoughts on what we might expect those days in Jefferson City?

  4. Mr. Pete May 17, 2017 at 8:45 am - Reply

    Gary I would like to know about Friday night into Saturday morning

    • Gary May 17, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

      The data coming in now has it mostly dry in KC until late Thursday night (we still have to monitor this afternoon closely for a fast moving thin line). Then Friday looks stormy with heavy rain and some severe weather potential. It looks like it all blows east of KC by noon Saturday.

      There are still many uncertainties. We will go into more specifics later.

      Gary

      • turd ferguson May 17, 2017 at 12:13 pm - Reply

        Both gfs and nam showing 3+ for kc friday.. u buying that

  5. stl78 May 17, 2017 at 10:41 am - Reply

    Been trying to get moved into the new house in winona mn but the constant rains have made this a challenge! It hasn’t been constant rain but when it has rained, it has come down hard! I’ll head to st louis today to check on my mom and then back to kc for a couple days and then back to mn. Hope the severe threat is low on my travels. Have a great day and enjoy your family. I truly never know what each day holds!

  6. Farmermike May 17, 2017 at 11:24 am - Reply

    Here in north central kansas got another 2.50″ of rain between 6pm last nite to 9am today. That makes my total 5.80″ for the month. Ground is soaked real good setting my area up for flooding if much more comes in with this weekend storm.

  7. F00dl3 May 17, 2017 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    HRRR going bonkers with storms in KC in 2-3 hrs….

  8. Kstater May 17, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Can someone post hrrr link please. I can’t find it on the site I usually use.

  9. Tim May 17, 2017 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    Tornado watch.. is this a joke?

  10. turd ferguson May 17, 2017 at 12:47 pm - Reply

    3 + inches Friday? Is this for real

  11. ginapuff May 17, 2017 at 12:50 pm - Reply

    My Storm Shield app did not alert me to the tornado watch. Did anyone else’s go off or is it just a problem with mine?

    • Tim May 17, 2017 at 12:58 pm - Reply

      it alerted me.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 17, 2017 at 1:10 pm - Reply

      Gina, you might not be in a watch county? If your county isn’t in the watch you won’t get the alert, FYI

      • ginapuff May 17, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

        I live in Gardner and currently I am at work in downtown KCMO. Usually I get alerts for both locations. I will check my settings. Thanks!

        • REAL HUMEDUDE May 17, 2017 at 1:21 pm - Reply

          That’s weird then, JOCO is part of the watch so it must be acting goofy. Technology is great when it works right!

  12. LSMike(Cowboys) May 17, 2017 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    mine went off!!

  13. Richard May 17, 2017 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Why are we now under a tornado watch.
    Thought the rest of the day/tonight was going to be fine.

  14. Weatherby Tom May 17, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    storms just beginning to fire to the west of us, small in structure so far, but good ole accuweather says they are 22 minutes away

  15. Kurt May 17, 2017 at 1:57 pm - Reply

    I would take any type of rain, it’s really dry up here and am envious of those with really good rainfall month to date, still stuck and less than 1/10 of an inch for May. Hopefully we can get something more substantial up here.

  16. Jack May 17, 2017 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    Gary, I am very frustrated and confused why the target areas are staying south and west of here? Shouldn’t the risks be shifting at least eastward? The moderate risk for tomorrow is literally in almost the exact same spot as it was yesterday. I know you said Thursday looks to be west of us.. but you said we will have to see how it sets up.. we are 24 hours away, are you thinking we will be hit too late after dark for any significant severe weather to happen in our area? Looking forward to your thoughts.

  17. Richard May 17, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    Gary ? Thoughts ? Is SPC watch too far south ?

    • Tim May 17, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

      I bet the watch was for the threat from the convection that is passing over us now. Watch the watch drop in the next hour or so I bet…

  18. REAL HUMEDUDE May 17, 2017 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    Barely a shower in Old OP, blew through without even a single clap of thunder. I would see the need for a Sev. Tstorm watch with the winds but with these barely making thunder I’m not sure what deemed a Tornado watch neccessary.

  19. Richard May 17, 2017 at 2:22 pm - Reply

    Gary was on facebook live but mia here. Why. Guess no time to update here. Busy man

    • Richard May 17, 2017 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      I cant get the fb live stuff. Saw it mentioned

  20. Kai May 17, 2017 at 2:41 pm - Reply

    Tim was right! Tornado Watch has been dropped for KC Metro. I figured just the same when I saw the little itty bitty showers blowing through on radar.

    Can’t wait to see what happened Thursday night/Friday.

  21. Kai May 17, 2017 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    happens*. 🙂

  22. Craig May 17, 2017 at 3:23 pm - Reply

    Looks like this was spot on. Nice job, Gary.

    Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

    Today: A Wind Advisory with winds gusting from the southwest up to nearly 50 mph at times this afternoon. There is a slight 20% chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm and we have to still watch them closely. High: 78°

  23. kcstjomo May 17, 2017 at 3:23 pm - Reply

    I got a couple brief showers, anything better than nothing. Still need lots more, very envious of those around me getting ample precipitation while we haven’t had an inch this month.

  24. Craig May 17, 2017 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    Tomorrow still looks interesting around here but particularly out near Salina. A good day for chasing?
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2016042418&fh=loop&r=us_c&dpdt=

  25. Three7s May 17, 2017 at 4:25 pm - Reply

    Latest NAM absolutely hammers our area Friday…….

    • Miss Jess May 17, 2017 at 4:33 pm - Reply

      could you post a link to the NAM please?

    • Richard May 17, 2017 at 6:54 pm - Reply

      That nam looks like rain on Saturday too

  26. Kstater May 17, 2017 at 8:20 pm - Reply

    Tomorrow’s setup looks decent for severe weather in this area late evening early overnight I think. Friday I think chances of severe weather will be lower because it seems it will just be round after round of heavy rain not much time to let air destabilize. Central Kansas and Oklahoma sure have the setup for a torando outbreak tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few around here tomorrow night because of warm front right overhead. Thoughts?

    • Three7s May 17, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

      I’m not too optimistic about severe weather tomorrow night, but we’ll see. If it does happen, it will be extremely late and much weaker than what will be going on in Kansas and Oklahoma. Probably more just a straight-line wind event for us when it gets here.

      As for Friday, I still think a major outbreak is possible, but you’re right that it could just be a heavy rain event. Friday morning will be key. If nothing materializes in the morning, Friday evening could be rough.

  27. Kurt May 17, 2017 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    Oh boy tripled my monthly rain to a whopping 3/10 of an inch

  28. Kstater May 17, 2017 at 8:24 pm - Reply

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2017051718&fh=33&r=us_c&dpdt=
    This shows torando parameters pretty high locally from about about 9pm-3am tomorrow. Especially right along warm front near or just south of 1-70

  29. Jack May 17, 2017 at 11:54 pm - Reply

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=scp&rh=2017051800&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=
    The name does seem to show that just west Wichita (northeast of the upper low) will have the best chance for supercells.. along with along the boundary that is between KC and St. Joe.. it seems like that is the warm front.. but could be wrong.. in the simulated reflectivity I did not see any storms fire along that boundary… will be interesting to see what risk KC will be in tomorrow… I expect for sure a slight risk and I could definitely see the moderate risk be moved a little eastward and extended more into Oklahoma… would not be shocked to see an enhanced risk in KC.. guess we will have to see.

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