Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A Wind Advisory with winds gusting from the southwest up to nearly 50 mph at times this afternoon. There is a slight 20% chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm and we have to still watch them closely.  High:  78°
  • Tonight: Dry and windy with southwest to west winds 15-30 mph
  • Thursday: Dry with periods of clouds. The chance of rain is 0%.  The chance of rain increases after sunset. Severe weather is most likely well west of Kansas City, but again we have to see how it sets up.  High:  77°
  • Thursday night – Friday:  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely.  1 to 2 inches of rain are possible and some severe weather is likely in the area. Will it be too cool, or will the warm air surge in here for an increased severe weather risk. This is what we are monitoring closely for on the new data. High: 72°

This water vapor satellite picture shows the lead storm and the stronger storm system. There is a dry slot surging across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas this morning as the storm spins and closes off near the Nebraska/Kansas border early today. The second system can be seen in the  upper left corner of this picture.  Somehow this storm went by Kansas City with many spots getting just a few drops of rain.  KCI Airport had 0.o1″ around 7 AM this morning and that was the grand total for this lead storm system.  A much wetter looking storm is approaching, however, so hang on we aren’t done yet.

Kansas City rainfall the last two LRC seasons:

This lead storm is tracking into Iowa and Nebraska this morning. It will take most of the severe weather risk up to the north today:

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

As you can see above, the Storm Prediction Center already has a day 2 moderate risk, which is rare. This could be upgraded to a high risk if it really seems to be coming together tomorrow.  There are still a few big questions concerning Thursday into Fridays set up. Notice how Kansas City seems to avoid most of these big set ups.  I am still concerned about the set up for Friday closer to Kansas City. That day 3 set up could be impacted significantly by what happens late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Here is today’s tornado climatology for May 17:

We will analyze the Thursday-Friday-Saturday set ups in our next blog. Let’s see what happens today.  Thank you for participating in this weather experience!

Gary