Good morning,

Severe Weather Time-Line:

  • Daylight Hours Today:  The severe weather risk will be waiting on whether or not the cap will break before sunset.  If the cap breaks it will likely do so out near Dodge City, KS, and this would leave eastern Kansas dry for the Yankees/Royals game. The severe weather risk during the daylight hours would be way out west.
  • Tonight: The best chance of any severe thunderstorms would most likely  be near the Nebraska border lifting northeast into western Iowa. Kansas City would stay dry most of the night.
  • Wednesday:  The lead storm lifts northeast into Nebraska. Once this passes, there will be sinking air and this would end any severe weather risk over Kansas and Missouri by mid-afternoon. We have to monitor the morning thunderstorms closely for some severe weather as it moves by.
  • Wednesday night and Thursday: It will be the calm before the main storm. We have to monitor this main storm for an explosion of thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and central Kansas Thursday night, and then the risk shifts east on Friday.
  • Friday into early Saturday: This is still a bit too far out to analyze. The risk may be higher during this time frame, but there are still too many uncertainties to narrow it down.

Severe weather risks are challenging the next few days. There will be a strong cap in place today. When and where will it break? Will it break is even a good question!  This model that I showed last night has the cap broken by 7 PM over central and western Kansas. I doubt it and I will believe it when I see it happening. I think it could take until 7 PM before it shows signs of breaking and the most likely location will be northeast of the surface low. Take a look at where the surface low is forecast to be this evening, near the Colorado/Kansas border.

Today’s SPC outlook:

The SPC has placed the strongest tornado risk out over southwestern Kansas and into western Oklahoma. If the cap does break earlier, then this location is one of the favored spots. Again, will that cap break?

The storm causing todays risk is a strong wave of energy moving across the southwestern United States today. The timing of this strong wave is critical and the energy from this system begins arriving over that higher tornado risk around sunset tonight. If it comes in just a bit earlier the cap could break earlier and then that tornado risk would materialize. I still favor an area farther north, again just northeast of the surface low. Where will that low form? This is something storm chasers should be paying close attention to today.

8 PM HRRR:

Here is the HRRR that just came out as I was writing the blog this morning.  For the Yankees/Royals game as you can see it would be dry for the entire game even with this solution.  The lead thunderstorms would be near Salina, KS at 8 PM, but these are suspect as well. The only way they will be there is if the cap breaks around 3 or 4 PM farther west and I doubt it will. There is a chance that it will break early, but the chance is low.  The more likely area for storm chasers to be located, once again, is northeast of that surface low near the Colorado/KS border, and more likely near southwestern Nebraska. Notice how there is nothing in that enhanced tornado area at this 8 PM hour around the time the sun is setting. It does set a bit later out there.

This storm the rips up across Kansas early Wednesday.  LRC UPDATE: This storm is so directly related to LRC Cycle 2 in January, in fact it is incredible how this system, the lead system and the one on January 20th are so similar. I will try to show this in tomorrows blog. The next HRRR just came out while I have been continuing to type, and those same suspect thunderstorms were a full county farther west. Again, they are suspect anyway.

Wednesday is fascinating as well. This system rips by and the risk of severe weather will shift north as we wait for reorganization to the southwest.

We are monitoring the new data closely.  The SPC likely over reacted to the weak morning thunderstorms in eastern Kansas.  Let’s see how this sets up. Remember, we are forecasting the future. Weather2020 has a great concept and a team with great experience, but we can get thrown for a loop by Mother Nature once in a while.  We will know a lot more in a few hours. Thank you for sharing and participating in this weather experience.

Gary