Interesting Few Days Ahead Of Us

/Interesting Few Days Ahead Of Us

Interesting Few Days Ahead Of Us

Good morning,

Severe Weather Time-Line:

  • Daylight Hours Today:  The severe weather risk will be waiting on whether or not the cap will break before sunset.  If the cap breaks it will likely do so out near Dodge City, KS, and this would leave eastern Kansas dry for the Yankees/Royals game. The severe weather risk during the daylight hours would be way out west.
  • Tonight: The best chance of any severe thunderstorms would most likely  be near the Nebraska border lifting northeast into western Iowa. Kansas City would stay dry most of the night.
  • Wednesday:  The lead storm lifts northeast into Nebraska. Once this passes, there will be sinking air and this would end any severe weather risk over Kansas and Missouri by mid-afternoon. We have to monitor the morning thunderstorms closely for some severe weather as it moves by.
  • Wednesday night and Thursday: It will be the calm before the main storm. We have to monitor this main storm for an explosion of thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and central Kansas Thursday night, and then the risk shifts east on Friday.
  • Friday into early Saturday: This is still a bit too far out to analyze. The risk may be higher during this time frame, but there are still too many uncertainties to narrow it down.

Severe weather risks are challenging the next few days. There will be a strong cap in place today. When and where will it break? Will it break is even a good question!  This model that I showed last night has the cap broken by 7 PM over central and western Kansas. I doubt it and I will believe it when I see it happening. I think it could take until 7 PM before it shows signs of breaking and the most likely location will be northeast of the surface low. Take a look at where the surface low is forecast to be this evening, near the Colorado/Kansas border.

Today’s SPC outlook:

The SPC has placed the strongest tornado risk out over southwestern Kansas and into western Oklahoma. If the cap does break earlier, then this location is one of the favored spots. Again, will that cap break?

The storm causing todays risk is a strong wave of energy moving across the southwestern United States today. The timing of this strong wave is critical and the energy from this system begins arriving over that higher tornado risk around sunset tonight. If it comes in just a bit earlier the cap could break earlier and then that tornado risk would materialize. I still favor an area farther north, again just northeast of the surface low. Where will that low form? This is something storm chasers should be paying close attention to today.

8 PM HRRR:

Here is the HRRR that just came out as I was writing the blog this morning.  For the Yankees/Royals game as you can see it would be dry for the entire game even with this solution.  The lead thunderstorms would be near Salina, KS at 8 PM, but these are suspect as well. The only way they will be there is if the cap breaks around 3 or 4 PM farther west and I doubt it will. There is a chance that it will break early, but the chance is low.  The more likely area for storm chasers to be located, once again, is northeast of that surface low near the Colorado/KS border, and more likely near southwestern Nebraska. Notice how there is nothing in that enhanced tornado area at this 8 PM hour around the time the sun is setting. It does set a bit later out there.

This storm the rips up across Kansas early Wednesday.  LRC UPDATE: This storm is so directly related to LRC Cycle 2 in January, in fact it is incredible how this system, the lead system and the one on January 20th are so similar. I will try to show this in tomorrows blog. The next HRRR just came out while I have been continuing to type, and those same suspect thunderstorms were a full county farther west. Again, they are suspect anyway.

Wednesday is fascinating as well. This system rips by and the risk of severe weather will shift north as we wait for reorganization to the southwest.

We are monitoring the new data closely.  The SPC likely over reacted to the weak morning thunderstorms in eastern Kansas.  Let’s see how this sets up. Remember, we are forecasting the future. Weather2020 has a great concept and a team with great experience, but we can get thrown for a loop by Mother Nature once in a while.  We will know a lot more in a few hours. Thank you for sharing and participating in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-05-17T08:38:51+00:00 May 16th, 2017|General|15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Three7s May 16, 2017 at 7:46 am - Reply

    Should be some fun radar watching tonight.

  2. Doug May 16, 2017 at 8:27 am - Reply

    This morning on 41 Weather she mentioned that storms could start between 7PM and 9PM. There are several high school graduation ceremonies and games tonight that would be affected if this does occur. It does not seem that Gary agrees with this.

    • Gary May 16, 2017 at 10:11 am - Reply

      They have updated that forecast. They went with the RPM model which way over exaggerated a breaking cap by noon. That is not going to happen, so my forecast is going to verify with very little chance of anything near KC.

      Gary

      • Anonymous May 16, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

        Interesting…another KC channel has rain late tonight as likely.

  3. Three7s May 16, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    HRR has thunderstorms blowing up in central Kansas and moving northeast, well to the north of us. I’d put the chance of precipitation at less than 20%, and that’s WITH the cap breaking. Not gonna happen tonight.

  4. Kstater May 16, 2017 at 10:19 am - Reply

    I am curious to see what happens because Everyone has a different forecast. Caps always screw up forecast because if and when they break changes everything. I noticed storm prediction center moved enhanced risk east to include Topeka.

    • Three7s May 16, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

      I’d agree with that. I’d go from central-eastern Kansas to the north east towards Omaha. South of Omaha doesn’t have much of a chance.

  5. Terry May 16, 2017 at 10:32 am - Reply

    Gary what days are you picking out for us in the KC metro area ? Yesterday you were picking out Friday at being the best day for us? Do you see other days besides Friday?

  6. Terry May 16, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Severe weather?

  7. Craig May 16, 2017 at 11:13 am - Reply

    According to the “tornado conditions” chart, Thursday might be an interesting day, too.
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2016042418&fh=loop&r=us_c&dpdt=

  8. Craig May 16, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Your latest SPC outlook now includes a 15% tornado risk in western OK.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  9. Jack May 16, 2017 at 12:10 pm - Reply

    Looks like to me based on the 12z model data that the biggest risk for Friday will be Kansas, Oklahoma border.

    • Fred Nolan May 17, 2017 at 12:53 am - Reply

      Looks like a forecast verified. Job well done Gary, you nailed it as usual. Travelling to St Louos this weekend, any idea what the setup their looks like?

  10. Kurt May 17, 2017 at 1:15 am - Reply

    And no surprise it stays dry here. It seems like so much rain all around and the models forecast something that finds a way to miss up here. Approaching a deficit of two inches January year to date.

  11. Craig May 17, 2017 at 7:44 am - Reply

    At 10:00 last night, Gary hinted that Friday might shift south. And now, as of this morning, it looks like it will.

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