Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern is going to be quite fascinating this week as a series of storm systems come into the western states and track out over the plains into the Great Lakes. There will be severe weather risks and each day will be interesting to analyze. There will be problems with capping aloft, timing of waves, and picking out the most likely location for storm chasers to converge.
Before we begin with an analysis of the next few days, let’s start with a look at rainfall in Kansas City since this years LRC set up:
Kansas City International Airport Rainfall:
Weather2020 forecasted a dry first half of May and a stormier second half of May. This forecast is verifying quite well. Kansas City has only had 0.89″ in this first half of the month. The average first half of May rainfall amount is 2.56″. It has been rather dry and we need some rain and soon. It is in the forecast later this week. And, look at the difference from last year to this year. Let’s say Kansas City gets four more inches of rain this month, which is a possibility, this would still place us 12 inches under a year ago during the LRC season.
The set ups this week:
The outlook above is from todays SPC outlook, and the one below shows the severe weather outlook for Tuesday:
There will be some warm air aloft that will expand over the plains the next two days. This may limit the explosion of thunderstorms. The capping layer aloft can be a very big factor and we have to monitor this closely. Look at this set up for Tuesday at the surface:
Storm chasers will be way out west today, and then Tuesday, the set up is really looking impressive out over the western third of Kansas south into Oklahoma, and then northeast along that front in Nebraska and Iowa. Take a look at the dew point forecast from the NAM model:
If you look closely you can see the dry line clearly over western Kansas south into the eastern Texas Panhandle. And, notice the lower dew points forecast to develop due to some sinking air over eastern Kansas and western Missouri south into Arkansas. There is a lot to think about and analyze here.
When is the cap most likely going to break? When this wave approaches and moves out over this warm and humid air mass, but look where it is at 7 PM Tuesday.
The cap breaking energy will be finally moving out over the plains near or after sunset Tuesday evening. The cap would at this point finally break. There is certainly a chance it breaks earlier than this time frame, and for storm chasers this would be essential. If it doesn’t break before sunset, then there would be nothing to see in the daylight hours.
From the SPC:
“A strong cap should inhibit convection through much of the day. By late afternoon, strong heating along the dryline and increasing forcing for ascent should result in at least isolated supercell thunderstorm development from southwest NE through western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. If richer moisture does in fact exist that far west, a tornado threat also will increase with these storms. After 00z, stronger forcing for ascent will overspread the region and further development is expected southward along the dryline.”
Today and Tuesday have the developing cap issues. Wednesday will be on the back side of this strong lead wave of energy, and then we will look into the set ups for later in the week.
Have a great day and thank you for participating in this weather experience.