Good afternoon bloggers,

Thoughts on severe weather risks this week:

  • Tuesday: The surface map will look impressive and I will plot one for Mondays blog entry.  There will be a rather strong capping layer aloft preventing any severe thunderstorm from forming until getting close to sunset or after sunset.  Chasers will likely be flocking out to the west, but it could be a “not much” day.
  • Wednesday:  The strong wave of energy creating the impressive surface map for Tuesday will rip on by with some sinking air in its wake. There will likely be morning thunderstorm activity that could be severe, and then this could increase and grow into Wisconsin and eastern Iowa as the wave moves past the plains.
  • Thursday:  This looks like a big day for Kansas, mostly western and central Kansas. Big supercell thunderstorms seem more likely as the main storm begins to send energy out over the high dew points.
  • Friday:  Friday looks like a potential outbreak set up, but it’s just a bit too early to analyze the timing and location, but Kansas City will likely be more in this Friday risk
  • Saturday:  Everthing likely shifts east out of the plains, but it may linger for a few hours and we are still uncertain of the timing Saturday. If everything slows down just a bit, Saturday could be a big day.

This week is certainly getting the attention of storm chasers.  There may be cap issues, timing issues on the waves aloft, and more that are making the severe weather risk forecasts tough.

The risk on Monday:

The risk on Tuesday:

The set up on Tuesday is really going to be battling a strong capping layer aloft. The attention will then be focused on Thursday into Saturday as a stronger storm approaches the plains states.

Gary