Good Saturday afternoon bloggers,

The weather pattern is going to be active next week. The best chance of major severe weather is later in the week. The chances begin, however, around Monday way out west. And, then here is the set up for Tuesday:

There is a broad circulation forecast to develop that will cover most of the United States and southern Canada.  A strong surface low (989 mb) is forecast to develop near Denver, CO. This will pull the moisture far to the west and the triggering mechanisms for thunderstorm development will be pulled west as well. A strong wave of energy aloft is going to move out over this area later Tuesday and there will be a risk over central and western Kansas. The thunderstorms then would move north northeast with the band weakening as it approaches eastern Kansas early Wednesday morning. This wave of energy will then move by as a stronger storm begins forming for later in the week.

Can you find the dry line? The dry line is the wind shift line where the dew points east of the dry line are high and the dew points west of this boundary drop significantly with the downsloping dry air from the higher terrain to the west.  On this 7 PM forecast map for Tuesday evening you can see the dry surge into northeastern Nebraska, with the main dry line over western Kansas into the eastern Texas Panhandle. Just east of the dry line is where the thunderstorms will likely form, so storm chasers will be heading out west.

Some of the models are breaking the cap earlier than this NAM model. The cap, a warming layer aloft looks really strong to me.  I think the cap may break by 7 or 8 PM, but way out west.

This is Tuesday’s set-up. What about the rest of the week?

  • Wednesday:  The Tuesday wave moves by and the risk shifts into Wisconsin leaving the plains with a day to watch the surface features begin redeveloping way out west again.
  • Thursday:  This looks like a big day for Kansas, mostly western and central Kansas. Big supercell thunderstorms seem more likely as the main storm begins to send energy out over the high dew points.
  • Friday:  Friday looks like a potential outbreak set up, but it’s just a bit too early to analyze the timing and location, but Kansas City will likely be more in this Friday risk
  • Saturday:  Everthing likely shifts east out of the plains

Gary