Happy Friday bloggers,

There is lot to discuss today.   We just experienced the May version of the “non ice” ice storm. Kansas City once again was in one of the least exciting and weather producing regions. It should have been expected. I expected it, tried to forecast this, but it was not easy. The amount of precipitation that fell from this system and the one from the January version were almost exactly the same.

Kansas City Rainfall From This Part Of The LRC:

  • January:  0.93″ over four days, some minor icing, and then just a cold rain on the Chiefs playoff game Sunday. It did completely dry out on that Sunday and the Chiefs game was moved to Sunday night. It didn’t help them as they fell 18-16 to the Steelers.  Most of this rain fell on that Sunday morning (.67″)
  • May:  0.75″ in 30 minutes and nothing else

And, now, what? Well take a look at the next six days plus, ending Thursday morning:

Between now and next Thursday morning, the 00z GFS model had barely 0.01″ in the entire KC viewing area.  The same pattern continues to cycle. Thank you for going on this weather adventure with us. Now, once again look at this map above:

  • Lake Tahoe getting hit again in mid-May? Not unheard of, but it certainly fits this pattern
  • What is that along the east coast? Oh, a repeat of the massive winter storm!
  • The desert southwest being bone dry? Well, it’s the desert southwest before the monsoon begins? What is the monsoon? It is the seasonal shift in the pattern once summer settles in and they get some rather fascinating summer thunderstorms, but this is weeks away as summer does not begin for another month and a week!
  • The jet stream is quite obviously shifting north as you look at the USA/Canada border precipitation pattern. It will finally weaken and lift far enough north as summer settles in, but this is still four weeks away.

What is this next map above? Where did all of that rain come from? This is the rainfall total for the entire 15 day stretch ending May 27th! In our Weather2020 forecast, we predicted a dry first half of May in KC. And, we predicted a stormy ending to May!  It appears this is right on the LRC calendar. Yes, this east coast storm developing is directly related to what happened after the “non ice” ice storm and then Winter Storm “Stella”!

This is the May version of “Stealla”. TWC names the winter storms. Remember when we named our winter storms years ago before TWC started doing this consistently? Well, near KC you need to have winter storms to name them. Maybe we should come up with names for next winter and then they will come!  Anyway, look at this forecast map  valid 2 PM eastern time Saturday. That is one wet and strong storm intensifying near the coast. It almost becomes cold enough to snow, but not quite.

What happens in the next few days will be fascinating to track.  This map on the left shows what happened four to five days after the ice storm, which is due in early to mid-next week.  The part of the pattern that produced Stella in the March cycle, also existed in this second and January LRC cycle. It is off the New England coast. But, that is not what I want you to look at. LOOK closely at the little upper low caught in the flow just north of Kansas and Missouri near southwestern Minnesota. And, there was a tremendous amount of energy blasting over the west coast as well, that is forecast to happen again and is a storm we have to monitor closely later next week.

The models have been trying to showcase this part of the cycling pattern. This map on the right is the GFS model valid next Tuesday night into Wednesday. Look at the weak little upper low near Kansas City on this forecast map.  Now, look closely.  That little upper low is caught in the ridge.  Now, we are the experts at the LRC and I am not expecting you to see the big puzzle. It is really complex, but to me this is just another incredible example of some of the smaller scale features that also can be found within the bigger picture. That little upper low is caught in the ridge, just like that little upper low on the map to the left.

The energy coming into the west coast early next week forms into a big upper low over the inland western states. And, this is why I turned the red light on for severe weather in the plains later next week.

Oh boy. I got into the LRC weeds this morning.  Hopefully this makes just a little sense to you.  This weekend we get a break from severe weather risks. Next week, we will have some interesting weather set ups to monitor that will be unique to this season, just like what happened yesterday.  Yesterday, that upper low moved to the Kansas/OK border, stopped, spun around, and then turned southeast. This transition affected the severe weather risks yesterday. There were many severe thunderstorms, but the tornadoes were rather weak, but still scary.

Thank you for participating in this weather experience. Let me know if you have any questions. Happy Mother’s Day weekend! Sunny and I are Emceeing the big Fur Ball Saturday night!

Gary