Remembering The “Non-Ice” Ice Storm & Comparing To Right Now In May

/Remembering The “Non-Ice” Ice Storm & Comparing To Right Now In May

Remembering The “Non-Ice” Ice Storm & Comparing To Right Now In May

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is spinning into Kansas this morning.  The amount of rain that ended up being produced by this storm system is really what I was expecting to happen. The models had much higher amounts at times as this storm system approached our area, but when it came down to producing yesterday this storm pretty much failed near the Kansas City region. Yes, there were amounts approaching an inch in a few spots, but there were many that had less than 0.20″ of rain (Overland Park 0.15″, The Plaza 0.18″.  KCI Airport had 0.75″ in less than 30 minutes yesterday afternoon as a band of thunderstorms moved by very quickly, but that was the only rain from this storm. An entire 30 minutes worth as last night only had sprinkles.

This satellite picture above is NOT from today. This satellite picture above is from the “non ice” ice storm from January 16th or two cycles ago.  I will post this mornings water vapor satellite picture below in a few minutes.

I will post today’s water vapor image here around noon…….

Here was my analysis of what happened with the “non ice” ice storm from 115 days ago:

“NON ICE” ICE STORM from the January 16th blog:

Kansas City’s Precipitation Amounts From This Storm:

  • Friday: Dry all day as was in the forecast
  • Friday night: 0.10″ in less than an hour. This band of freezing rain showers caused the worst icing from the entire storm. It was 27° as this heaviest band of freezing rain of the entire event passed through
  • Saturday: Dry all day as was in the forecast
  • Saturday night:  Dry until 2 AM when 0.02″ fell. This produced only a glazing of ice
  • Sunday morning:  0.07″ fell as temperatures hovered near 32° and the glazing of ice continued. There was .10″ to .25″ of ice accumulation two to three counties to the south, but then it melted by 9 AM Sunday
  • Sunday afternoon: 0.07” of light rain with temperatures just above 32°
  • Sunday night:  0.46″ with temperatures rising to 36
  • Monday morning:  The dry slot is arriving! A few rain showers are rotating around the upper low and temperatures are continuing their rise as we approach 50 degrees today

This is a total of 0.72″.  0.02″ fell during the main Ice Storm Warning, and if you want to add in the 0.07″ that fell after it reached 32° on Sunday morning, this is still a total of 0.09″. This is where the lack of ice accumulation came from. The amount of precipitation forecast and modeled by every computer model was never less than around 0.15″. There were a few models that started trending towards these lower numbers. We ended up with about as low of an amount from this storm that I would ever have expected. And, when the main storm came out this morning, Kansas City again ended up with lower amounts than any model had predicted. So, I am calling this another KC miss. In January, this is still a lot of precipitation for a storm. It just could have been a bit more.

I could write a similar statement from this current version.  I put the text from that blog in Italic Text so you can tell the difference from that blog to this blog.  Let’s look at this storm once again from how it looked as it was coming into California:

And, here is just two to three days later in each cycle:

When I posted this yesterday and tweeted this comparison out, many people saw something else as you can imagine.  My peers have always had a hard time finding what we have with the cycling pattern as described by the LRC. I will be sharing my hypothesis at a conference next month and this will certainly be part of the discussion and showcased in the paper we are submitting for peer review.  The storm now is moving into Kansas just like it did in LRC Cycle 2.  After it moved into Kansas it rapidly fell apart in January, and this is what will happen during the next 24 hours right on schedule again.

So, we should not be surprised at how this storm did not quite come together for the Kansas City region.  It was really what I was expecting and it was a very tough forecast when using the guidance from the computer models that had forecast amounts of over 3″ in spots.

The rain is now shutting off for around the next seven days.  We forecasted a drier first half of May which is verifying, and we forecasted a wet last third of May. This forecast was made a couple of weeks ago and so far everything has happened right on that LRC calendar!

Have a great Thursday.

Gary

2017-05-12T18:14:07+00:00 May 11th, 2017|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Baseball Mike May 11, 2017 at 8:25 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary- the forecasts here in Topeka got shot to pieces just like when our Euro Map station blew the January ice storm here. This LRC is brutal for some and not too bad for others even though I am still around 18 inches for the year. Only received .05 last evening. The next really rainy period won’t be here until after May 20? What do you see for next week? Thanks for the insight.
    Michael/Topeka/Berryton

    • Gary May 11, 2017 at 8:43 am - Reply

      Mike,

      Yes! Pretty incredible. This pattern has been producing enough rain since spring began, which I am still somewhat surprised with, but only somewhat as all of these storm systems have been there…..they just do strange things as they move through the ridge.

      Seven dry days ahead of us.

      Gary

  2. Three7s May 11, 2017 at 8:27 am - Reply

    I was dead wrong yesterday, mostly thanks to what the models were showing. I fell for their consistency, hook, line, and sinker.

  3. Michael Casteel May 11, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    Recorded a measly .07″ up here in Maryville. NOAA was calling for 1.5″-2″ of rain for us. Guess they don’t use the LRC! Keep up the good work Gary. You’ve made a believer out of me. I am worried about it drying out this summer. Things look so good now, better to enjoy it now. Have a great day bloggers!
    Michael

  4. f00dl3 May 11, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    Was it just me or did everyone keep pushing the “main show in the evening” thing? It was pretty darn clear at 9 AM with a line of storms out west and CAPE values in excess of 2,000 j/kg that the storms around Noon were going to pack the most punch, and contaminate the atmosphere for the evening…

  5. Ben May 11, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

    You guys nailed it Gary. About everybody was calling for 1-2 inches. For all the bashing you get on here you deserve credit for this one.

    • Anonymous May 11, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

      Not really, we have had a really really wet spring and all I heard were predictions of drought and continued dryness

  6. f00dl3 May 11, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    I think the models have this afternoon wrong. I don’t think this storm is going to dive as far south as the HRRR shows. Storms near Independence KS lifting this way – instability supposed to increase this afternoon. Find it hard to believe all this is going to fizzle out and a new batch develop further south – I think this current batch is going to lift north into Kansas City around 1 to 3 PM.

    • Three7s May 11, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

      I’m following that batch lifting north-northeast out of SE Kansas. Looked like the brunt of the storm was intensifying at last glance.

  7. Zach Hogan May 11, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Just like the “Ice Storm” Western & Central Kansas received 1-3″ of moisture and NO severe weather…

  8. REAL HUMEDUDE May 11, 2017 at 9:34 am - Reply

    Got close to 3/4″ last night at the farm, another small rain band moving in down there this am. This storm has been an disorganized mis-mash of storms and showers, you either get a big pounding thunderstorm or a inconsequential shower and its very scattered about. It is really avoiding northern MO unfortunately, and just sucker punching my area over and over again. I bet we get another 1/2″ today, wont stop.

  9. Craig May 11, 2017 at 10:14 am - Reply

    Day 6 (next Tuesday) may have some possibilities:
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

  10. Kurt May 11, 2017 at 10:18 am - Reply

    And it won’t start here, although it came close about 1/2 mile north and west of me they had a really good shower last night. I would be overstating with .05, it barely wet bottom of the rain gauge. Just keep watering in between what mother nature may or may not produce.

    The St. Joseph reporting station should have gotten some yesterday, but probably close to an inch below normal year-to-date and I have less than .10 for the month of May so far.

    • Three7s May 11, 2017 at 10:47 am - Reply

      Yeah, the models were awful yesterday, even just hours before the event. Can’t rely on them, that’s for sure. Looks like there is an area of precip heading your way at the moment.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE May 11, 2017 at 11:42 am - Reply

      Nice shower on your way Kurt, you will make it by just fine until later this month when the rains pick back up

  11. Kurt May 11, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Yes, they took the rain out of today’s forecast and now added it back in. At least the temps are wicked out of control and we have had humidity so things really looks very green and good up here. Crossing my fingers for a few showers today.

  12. Urbanity May 11, 2017 at 11:11 am - Reply

    The mean ridge knocked this storm down…..huge circulation but with little activity. High temps will probably rebound quickly and get very warm in the coming days.

  13. farmermike May 11, 2017 at 11:43 am - Reply

    here in north central kansas it rained for almost 2 hours this morning.
    ended up with a nice even 2″ total.

  14. Craig May 11, 2017 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    Gary, those satellite pics are quite remarkable.
    Nice job!

  15. Randy Keller May 11, 2017 at 1:52 pm - Reply

    nice job Gary! This is why i brag you up to all my friends up here in nebraska

    GO SOONERS

  16. REAL HUMEDUDE May 11, 2017 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    Man, I’m scared that huge area of storms in OK is going to work right up the Stateline into the farm. I was hoping we would avoid anymore rain today, but it literally will not end down here. Just have a target on Vernon Co, especially southern half of my county has been slammed now possibly alot more coming

  17. Arvadaboy May 11, 2017 at 5:27 pm - Reply

    Gary
    What is the outlook for North East Pennsylvania? In March this storm produced “Stella” that slammed with 20 to 30 inches of snow.

    • Gary May 11, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

      Arvadaboy,

      It’s interesting that you bring this up. I am pretty sure you realize that we are in that part of the cycling pattern right now, and right on schedule a major storm is forming near the northeast coast. I will look into this in the morning.

      gAry

  18. JeffinKs May 11, 2017 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    Hello from down south in Wichita. We had a total of 2.23 inches of rain as of 9:30 tonight were i live.

  19. Kurt May 11, 2017 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    1/10 today for a month to date total of .18. This weather pattern stinks big time

  20. Order Viagra May 14, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    Hello! Cool post, amazing!!!

Leave A Comment