The LRC: The Current Storm & A Bigger Threat Late Next Week

/The LRC: The Current Storm & A Bigger Threat Late Next Week

The LRC: The Current Storm & A Bigger Threat Late Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is moving into the plains today.  There is a small enhanced slight risk area that we will discuss in a minute. A much more significant severe weather risk is likely later this month as  many of you have been discussion and wondering about in recent blog comments.   One of the bigger forecasts we made using the LRC for around April 28th, give or take a day or two, is now showing up on the models and we will discuss this today as well.  I am speaking at the big NPGA Southeastern Conference & International Propane Expo tomorrow morning. Weather2020 is the featured weather company for long range weather forecasting at this conference. I will let you know how it is received as we discuss the cycling weather pattern.

Today’s Risk:

The enhanced slight risk is located near the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma/Texas border.  Farther north there will be a well defined cut-off line for rain. Take a look at these two rainfall forecasts with that cut-off line forecast to set up near I-70:

The European Model above and the GFS model below have come into somewhat of an agreement.

Let’s monitor this weekend storm closely. And, let’s now look ahead to next weeks much bigger potential for severe weather.

The LRC & Late April

We have never quite shown the LRC this way with storm reports from the past. What I am showing here is an actual two day outbreak that happened in the last cycle. Usually I show this type of comparison after the next cycle or two produced similar results. I hope that this doesn’t materialize, but we have high confidence that the risks will be increasing later next week as the pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC in the 56 to 61 day range centered on around 58-59 days. These two maps below show the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC):

There were 72 tornado reports in the outbreak on day 1 on February 28th and another 18 on day 2 of this severe weather outbreak. There were over 1200 severe weather reports during this two day event. The same areas will likely be targeted again, but there should be a seasonal westward shift just a bit which will bring the risk into part of tornado alley.

This forecast map above shows the “dangerous” energy dropping into the southern Rocky Mountains right on April 28th, one week from today.  This will likely help set up the surface conditions for another two to three day severe weather risk over the plains and extending into the Mississippi River Valley once again.  Let’s not get too specific yet.

Have a great Friday. The LLTI could go into effect for this first storm as I am on my way to the airport now. Have a great weekend. I will check in sometime later today or tomorrow.  And, don’t panic about the Royals. Their starting pitching has been so great. Their relief pitching has been very good. Their hitting has been the worst in Major League baseball. I suggest a couple of line up changes to stir it up, but Ned Yost is very stubborn. But, his consistency has paid off in the past.


2017-04-22T16:31:47+00:00 April 21st, 2017|General|15 Comments


  1. LSMike(Cowboys) April 21, 2017 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Gary you bashed my Texas Rangers on the 5pm news and you jinxed your Royals last night in the 13 inning game.

    • Anonymous April 21, 2017 at 8:11 am - Reply

      You know this is a weather blog right?

    • Three7s April 21, 2017 at 8:16 am - Reply

      The Royals jinxed themselves by being complete amateurs when it comes to hitting a baseball.

      • LSMike(Cowboys) April 21, 2017 at 8:26 am - Reply

        That’s true just giving Gary a hard time, It’s still early so both teams can turn it around maybe!!

  2. Dave LS April 21, 2017 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Still don’t know why Whit isn’t in the LU? Anyways I’m moving this weekend so I’m fine if the rain stays away, but looking forward to next weeks setup as I should be all settled in to my new place by then.

  3. Urbanity April 21, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

    I decided to watch the bottom of the 13th….poof….they lost. My viewing W-L record 0-7. I’m not superstitious, but this is getting ridiculous. My first thought was don’t give DeShield’s anything to hit because you probably want him on first base for the double play anyway. Three pitches later a perfect ball to hit. Like I said earlier this year, this team can’t hit, Gordon acts like his synapses are slowing down, Hosmer is a low and outside strikeout artist, and Escobar is just slapping away hoping for a miracle. Our only hope is that Moustakis can get back in form, Mondesi or Cuthbert breakout, and Hosmer becomes more patient at the plate. I think Gordon has a real problem, and Orlando is finished in KC?

    • Heat MIser April 21, 2017 at 4:52 pm - Reply

      I thought this was a weather blog?

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE April 21, 2017 at 9:37 am - Reply

    Royals will get put of this hitting slump. We are capable of 5+ run innings, we poured it on in seasons past and we will get back into hitting form soon. These guys aren’t this bad at hitting, we know that

  5. Mr. Pete April 21, 2017 at 1:58 pm - Reply

    Last nights game was woefully bad. Could hardly even watch it.

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE April 21, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    Another 1/2″ has fallen so far since last night, a solid 1″ combined past 24 hours. Areas south of me even in same county have had 2.5″ in same span. It’s totally saturated down here so I’m good, I can see the system maturing out west and tonight’s rain shield is on the way. Probably miss the worst of it luckily, we will need to dry out soon to get some crops planted! About 20% of the farms got theor corn planted 2 weeks ago and it’s loving the rain

    • Dobber April 21, 2017 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      Did the ole’ creek get flushed out?

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 21, 2017 at 3:12 pm - Reply

        It’s gotten up a bit, no monstrous floods. I’m thinking it will be bank full by morning,if the convection stays to the south by Arkansas I don’t see it getting out of the banks with only moderate rainfall rates

  7. KS Jones April 21, 2017 at 6:47 pm - Reply

    Got a sprinkle of rain at 3 PM that lasted about 10 minutes, and it has been merely overcast since then. Swarms of mushroom hunters have been scouting our woodland today, and most had good results. I had my tick-treated clothing on, but was too busy digging post holes for a new pasture gate and had no time to hunt fungus. Nonetheless, a morel was growing right where I was digging a post hole, so that will be eaten tonight. Merlins have been hanging out for the past few days as they make their migration north. They’re attractive falcons but not as colorful as sparrow hawks, which have been around as well.
    The warm season grasses are greening up quite well since we burned on April 11th, and we have seen greater prairie chickens hanging out there again this year. Have heard lots of rooster pheasants crowing in the past week, and there is a Tom turkey in our yard as I type. Deer are a daily occurrence , but a bobcat strolled by our trailcam last night. They come down that path every few months. Anyway, everything (flora & fauna) Is looking great this spring, but I’m hoping we won’t get more rain. Don’t need it and don’t want it!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 21, 2017 at 9:01 pm - Reply

      You write a nice scene, I’m there. I tell you, can’t buy a morel on my farm this year or most. Do I need to plant some spores? I’m tempted to buy a couple kits and see how thy work. I have plenty of dense woods with low-light , wet areas. I might try that as I just don’t find them naturally like other seem to find so easily……or people are beating me to my own land lol
      Royals suck again……

      • KS Jones April 21, 2017 at 10:02 pm - Reply

        We have roughly 60 acres of dense oak-hickory woodlands. Some ranchers don’t like to see trees growing in their pastureland at all, but cattle take refuge from extreme heat in our woods and the spring-fed stream that runs through the shaded timberland makes the air temperature close to the stream feel 20° cooler.
        Our burr-oaks are centuries old, but there is a whole mix of other trees such as walnut, sycamore, hackberry, Kentucky coffee-bean trees &c.
        I’ve read that morels prefer to grow in oak woodlands, but they grow in areas where there are no oaks too.
        The Wilder family camped out at our spring when they fled the prolonged drought in the Dakotas in 1894. Laura wrote a description of the plants growing here in her diary. My great-great grandfather owned this spread back then.
        by Laura Ingalls Wilder
        August 8 (1894)
        Started at 8:30. Soon crossed Little Elm Creek and Big Elm Creek and drove through beautiful woods of elm, oak, ash, hickory, butternut and walnut. Wild grapes and currents are abundant, and briars and wild flowers of all kinds. A rich sight.

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