Positive vs. Negative Tilt

/Positive vs. Negative Tilt

Positive vs. Negative Tilt

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday played out about exactly as how I though it would.  The thunderstorms did form way back over central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and then they struggled as they moved east, basically falling apart by 10 PM.  The only severe weather reported happened only in the first two hours, the initial thunderstorms that went up, then they mostly weakened from there below severe limits. You can see the line here.

Today’s severe weather risk:

The risk today is centered near Detroit, MI. The Kansas City Royals are heading south to Dallas. They will be playing the Texas Rangers and the weather looks dry for tonights game. What a game last night. Sunny The Weather Dog had a great time, at least of what I could tell. She loves all of the dogs! And, the Royals beat Bumgarner!

The next storm:

Here is one rainfall forecast from last nights GFS model. As you can see, this next storm has KC on the northern edge with no measurable rain forecast over northern Missouri. One shift to the south and KC would miss this next storm.

The storm is becoming positively tilted as it moves into Missouri. Let me show you in this video:

positive vs. negative tilt from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Have a great Thursday and thank you for participating in the LRC Experience blog.

Gary

2017-04-22T07:17:30+00:00 April 20th, 2017|General|16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. George April 20, 2017 at 9:01 am - Reply

    Had a brief burst of rain, lightning and thunder about 6 a.m. this morning when I went to get the paper. Lasted about 10-15 minutes. About .10 inch. 87th & Antioch in OP

  2. Kstater April 20, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply

    Gary are you still expecting a severe weather outbreak near the end of the month? That would put it in about a week. Conditions look good for storms but temperatures forecasted in the upper 60’s or low 70’s don’t seem quite warm enough for a major outbreak.

    • Kyle April 20, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      I was wondering this exact same thing!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 20, 2017 at 3:46 pm - Reply

      I would say 4/5 years have a severe weather outbreak during the last week of April, somewhere in the Plains climatologically speaking. Regardless of the LRC timetable, almost any system needs to be watched during this time of year due to a stronger overall jetstream. I know Gary had a system in mind for that period, I’m just saying that’s almost a lock forecast looking at it totally blind

      • Three7s April 20, 2017 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        The system coming in on the last week of April is the one that brought the tornado outbreak to us right on the first week of March. I’ve been following this period since that outbreak.

  3. Urbanity April 20, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Gary, Ellsworth, KS had piles of hail, afterwards it looked a scene from “The Fog”, pirates…er…people walking around looking at the damage surrounded by a dense fog. A lot of hail damage to cars, probably roofs as well, drain gutters dented up, leaves shredded from trees, and the wind was very strong at times. I live a few miles west of Ellsworth and only had light hail for a short duration (thank you wind farm:)).

  4. Baseball Mike April 20, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary

    So just had a .10 which brings my yearly total to 15.01-did the ridge build more to the north allowing the beneficial rain to move in and now it is building back to the south which will limit our rain? Why is the El Niño returning so soon? Over the past 20-25 years seems like so much emphasis is placed on La Niña or El Niño which is only a piece of the puzzle of the LRC-we have had some El Niño years where the winter had produced snow. Take care on Nashville.

    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  5. turd ferguson April 20, 2017 at 10:56 am - Reply

    Gerald,

    Noon NAM run shows a complete miss to the south,, GFS still pulls 1/2 inch to 1.25 for the metro. which do you lean towards… Really hoping the nam is right and we get that tball game in saturday am.

  6. Steve April 20, 2017 at 11:07 am - Reply

    Hi Gary:

    Do you always have to say “way out west” when referring to the Salina area? I feel I like I need an entry visa to read your blog! 😂🌵😛

    • Anonymous April 20, 2017 at 12:11 pm - Reply

      You kind of are a ways out west dude, way west of the edge of the KC viewing area anyway.

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE April 20, 2017 at 11:50 am - Reply

    Got a solid 1/2″ early this am at the farm in NW Vernon Co. Thought we got more, sorta trained for a while but not any impressive cells to note. I’m loving this Spring so far!

  8. David April 20, 2017 at 2:31 pm - Reply

    Trend looks to be less rain and to the south of KC for sure

  9. Kurt April 20, 2017 at 3:18 pm - Reply

    Too bad we’re missing the rain this weekend, would have been perfect for my grass seed. I will put on my sprinklers tomorrow. Rain has been scarce since it shut off the first week of April, hard pressed to get more than a brief shower since then in my area.

  10. Ls Mike April 20, 2017 at 5:30 pm - Reply

    Gary thanks for BASHING my TEXAS RANGERS just now on the news!!! 🤘Yes we are struggling but it’s only the 3 rd week.

  11. Mr. Pete April 20, 2017 at 11:27 pm - Reply

    The royals pitching- great. Offense- non existent.

  12. career May 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm - Reply

    This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something which helped me. Kudos!

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