The Next Two Storm Systems

/The Next Two Storm Systems

The Next Two Storm Systems

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now through 9 PM: Dry with a 0% chance of any thunderstorms. High:  84°
  • 9 PM to midnight:  Thunderstorms developing west will be monitored closely as they go through various transitions in organization. The chance of a thunderstorm increases to 50% by midnight.
  • Midnight to 6 AM:  The cold front moves through with the wind shifting to the northwest. There is a 70% chance of a few thunderstorms. The severe weather risk is low.

There are two storm systems we are monitoring today. The SPC has placed a slight and an enhanced slight risk out over the plains into the upper midwest today. The second one is due in Friday into the weekend.

Today’s Set-Up:

There is enough of a cap today, a warm layer aloft around 3,000 to 10,000 feet above us, to prevent thunderstorms from forming along the weaker surface boundaries. Now, remember, there will not be thunderstorms that will just come out of no where. Something must trigger their development. The surface boundaries I have plotted are the areas to monitor closely.  The main surface boundaries are way out west in that trough west of Salina at 6 PM, the cold front, and the warm front. That other little surface trough will likely fade into the first one by 8 PM. Thunderstorms will most likely form by 8 PM out of the Kansas City viewing area out west as you can see below.

Now, the weather always has a few tricks to monitor. So, let’s watch this closely later today. The most likely severe weather risk area is where the SPC put the enhanced slight risk in Iowa.  The models have all trended into this solution with the ignition of thunderstorms happening late.  By 2 to 4 AM they finally get to Kansas City as you can see below.

The weekend storm system:

The weekend storm is directly related to a storm that affected the United States Christmas week.  In that LRC Cycle 2 version it did move northeast into the northern plains, but it fell apart and another wave took over and dropped southeast. This storm is going through a similar transition as it moves into the plains and it is making the rainfall forecast very difficult for Friday into Saturday. The models continue to be very inconsistent. On this latest GFS model above, I plotted where the storm tracked into the west coast and then turns southeast and, very important here, becomes positively tilted.  When a storm tilts from northeast to southwest, that is a positive tilt. When it tilts from northwest to southeast, then it is a negatively tilted storm and most often more energetic. As this storm comes into the west in the next couple of days it will be negatively tilted and a strong reason why California had a very wet year, due to the cycling pattern as described by the LRC. It is forecast to become positively tilted in response of it going through the LRC ridge that is part of this overall pattern we are in across the Northern Hemisphere.

Let’s look deeper into the weekend system tomorrow. Have a great day and thank you for participating in this weather experience.


2017-05-04T08:17:18+00:00 April 19th, 2017|General|27 Comments


  1. Snow Miser April 19, 2017 at 7:37 am - Reply

    My streak of not watching the Royals and them winning ended at 4 games. So, back to watching them.

    • Gary April 19, 2017 at 8:58 am - Reply

      The streak should have continued last night. They had many chances to win that game. I’ll be there for Bark in the Park tonight for the first few innings anyway.


      • Supercell April 19, 2017 at 9:20 am - Reply

        Yost refuses to pinch hit for Mondesi. He came up with 2 outs and runners on base in 9th and 11th. This screamed pinch hit yet Yost let Mondesi hit. Struck out both times. This is a huge warning sign 2017 is about getting future players playing experience instead of winning. The team is not concerned about winning this year. Maddening…

  2. Michael Casteel April 19, 2017 at 8:11 am - Reply

    Recorded .34″ this morning. Everything is lush and green!

  3. Mr. Pete April 19, 2017 at 8:55 am - Reply

    Hey Gary so would Saturday afternoon into Sunday be dry? Like after 1pm Saturday?

    • Gary April 19, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

      It looks that way right now Pete. The storm should be pulling away by noon Saturday. Since it is positively tilted as it moves by, it may be cloudy and cool Saturday, but the rain may shut off, if it ever gets here in the first place. Again, let’s see how it looks tomorrow.

  4. Richard April 19, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

    Rumor about possible flurries this weekend. I said rumor because thats what it is. As usual not a reliable forecast by another. ( No not the furry one.)

    • Richard April 19, 2017 at 9:13 am - Reply

      It was on the radio. I dont listen to that station for the weather forecasts.

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE April 19, 2017 at 10:15 am - Reply

    Like all the rest of the ULL’s, the north side will get big rain amounts but I think we will get a dry slot down here again like all the rest of the storms did. Still probably pick up and inch or more so I’ll be happy with that, plus tonight’s rains should be adequate for awhile

  6. MMike April 19, 2017 at 11:24 am - Reply


    Latest GFS has 3 inches for you at the farm and near 2 inches on the south side of KC. Everyone gets a good drink this weekend per this model run.

    Thunderstorms tonight!

    Beautiful lush green spring.

    • Dobber April 19, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

      Oh no mike , hopefully humes bottom ground doesn’t flood out.
      It is a beautiful lush green spring here in Kansas City.
      Why on earth didn’t Ned pinch hit for mondesdi ?

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 19, 2017 at 4:21 pm - Reply

        I could use a good flood Dobber! It’s only natural to have some flooding, part of the cycle and helps flush out the creek. If it really dries out in May I will be happy for any bonus precip I can get now. Some guys got their corn out already before the last rain we had, it’s 6″ tall already and those that got it out early may be the lucky ones. Wheat down here going bonkers, it went from shin high to thigh high in like 2 weeks!

  7. MMike April 19, 2017 at 11:26 am - Reply

    Canadian model has 2-3 inches in KC.

    The trend was south yesterday and now it’s back to the north today.

  8. MMike April 19, 2017 at 11:30 am - Reply

    Cold rain this weekend too, low 40’s and raining.

    Mid 30’s Sunday morning…Frost?

    • Richard April 19, 2017 at 11:52 am - Reply

      So the flurries rumor might be more truth than rumor ?
      Whats your source

  9. Craig April 19, 2017 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Latest MD has bumped the “tornado risk” to 10% for the area near Omaha.
    Good day to head up I-29 for a chase??

  10. turd ferguson April 19, 2017 at 12:37 pm - Reply


    you mentioned the difference between postively tilted and negatively tilted. Do the perciptiation models pick up this variable?

    • Gary April 19, 2017 at 12:47 pm - Reply


      Absolutely! The models pick up on these variables. It is still different from storm to storm. This one, even though it is becoming positively tilted may still be a circular upper low within trough. Usually positively tilted troughs will shift the precipitation farther south and east away from the trough. I know, I am barely understanding my own explanation here. We will try to show this as we get closer to Friday.


  11. REAL HUMEDUDE April 19, 2017 at 3:41 pm - Reply

    Is the negative/ positive tilt a function of LRC?
    If we get a storm one cycle and it’s negatively tilted, is it more likely to be Neg tilted the next cycle? I would think that’s a micro element of the LRC that may be too variable to pinpoint

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE April 19, 2017 at 3:52 pm - Reply


  13. Snow Miser April 19, 2017 at 6:06 pm - Reply

    Holy moly. If anything remotely close to this pans out we might be hoping for a drought come May:

  14. KS Jones April 19, 2017 at 6:13 pm - Reply

    It is mighty dark for this time of day, and it is no wonder looking at the line of storms out west of here blocking the sun. The whole line is riddled with severe weather boxes

  15. Steve April 19, 2017 at 7:38 pm - Reply

    .41 inches of rain. Marble size hail at about 7:15 pm just west of Salina.

  16. KS Jones April 19, 2017 at 7:40 pm - Reply

    The storm weakened north of I-70. The northern end is moving ENE and the southern end is moving ESE. Looks like we’ll luck out as the gap between the two systems passes over here. We don’t need or want any more rain anyway.

  17. Kstater April 19, 2017 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    Is this supposed to build back up before it moves east because the NWS has a 90 percent chance of rain here in Lawrence which doesn’t happen much. That being said I’m not impressed with radar right now, the line is thin and big gap right in the middle.

    • Heat MIser April 19, 2017 at 9:57 pm - Reply

      looks like Lawrence will get a little rain, but not much

  18. Kstater April 19, 2017 at 10:06 pm - Reply

    I am glad we don’t need rain because this looks very marginal except for areas far to the south. I thought storms were supposed to grow in size but lose strength when they moved this way but that doesn’t appear to be happening. Royals get another win!

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