Will The Real Severe Weather Risk Please Show Up

/Will The Real Severe Weather Risk Please Show Up

Will The Real Severe Weather Risk Please Show Up

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to be fascinating and there is chatter out there this week about severe weather risks. Which severe weather risk is the strongest? Let’s take a look.

As you can see above on the National Weather Service watch and warning map, it is a rather quiet Monday across the nation.  The weather will be getting a bit more active across the United States, but which storm is the most impressive?

This week’s risks:

  • The biggest severe weather risk and potential outbreak of severe weather appears it will be setting up on Saturday over the Tennessee Valley
  • There are other risks that are showing up, but seemingly not as impressive as Saturdays

Tuesdays risk:

This map above shows a surface low developing Tuesday evening back near Goodland, KS.  A warm front is forecast to strengthen from this low extending east into southern Iowa. The NAM model, shown above, does not fire up thunderstorms until around midnight. Other models fire up the thunderstorms in northern Missouri.  Let’s see how today’s models come in.

Wednesdays risk:

By Wednesday, as you can see below, the models have varying solutions and this model run that came in overnight again shows the NAM model with a surface low forecast to be located over southeastern Iowa.  If this is at all correct, the severe weather risk would be shifted north and east into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. This, however, is a different set up at the surface than other models have been showing.

Again, if this NAM model is at all correct Kansas City would not have much of  risk at all Wednesday, but I am not convinced of this solution at this moment. The severe weather risk from the SPC has been farther west due to the other models slower solutions.

The most impressive severe weather risk:

A major spring storm is forecast to move out of the southern Rocky Mountain states and intensify as it approaches Tennessee and the Mississippi River Valley early this weekend. A strong surface low is forecast to intensify over Arkansas by Saturday. This looks more organized and much more impressive than the earlier week set ups.  This is also entering our forecast spring hot spot for this year that we issued in early March:

As you can see, this Saturday storm severe weather set up is falling right into place over the forecast hot spot that Weather2020 issued almost two months ago.  Let’s see how the models show up today, but storm chasers should be paying close attention to this one.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-04-19T23:26:41+00:00 April 17th, 2017|General|11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Three7s April 17, 2017 at 8:13 am - Reply

    If I remember right, our next REAL severe weather threat should be around the first of May. That would be the storm that gave us the Tornado outbreak. Is there any other major risk between now and then?

    • Gary April 17, 2017 at 8:38 am - Reply

      For KC it should be around the 27th to 28th of April, give or take a day or two. It has started to show up on some of the models.

      Gary

  2. weatherdancer April 17, 2017 at 10:26 am - Reply

    Gary had said all along April 26-30 were the “KC target” days for the year. I have had it marked on the calendar!!! Concerning though as there are so many Proms that weekend.

  3. Rockdoc April 17, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    Good afternoon Gary. I checked into obtaining those 2 peer reviewed articles published by NCAR that were mentioned on the UCAR/NCAR Atmos News page. I thought I might have access to those journals, but alas I do not. However, it looks like anyone can obtain them for $35 each unless you are a paid member of American Meteorological Society and have a log-in ID. Here are the links on that site for both articles. There were also links in the Atmos News web site near the bottom.

    Tropospheric Waveguide Teleconnections and Their Seasonality
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0305.1

    Causes of Extreme Ridges That Induce California Droughts
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0524.1

    They both look really interesting. Wish I could get my hands on them. I may try contacting the researchers. Sometimes they will provide a courtesy copy to governmental agencies/other researchers.

    Quick question on the potential for sever weather around here on the 27th to the 28th. In looking at the temperatures and where the front seems to set up, it appears that we will be on the cooler side of the front – see below link. Also, no CAPE values are showing up near our area, but are further south…..but then again, the 27th is 10 days out and we know how models are this far out 🙂 I just hope Mother Nature will be kind and not allow for development of tornadoes……they can be very cruel with their destructive forces.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2017041706&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=

    Have a Great Monday Everybody!!!

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE April 17, 2017 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    My daughter is turning 3 on Saturday, and we have some animals coming over for her party, a little petting zoo ( calves and lambs)
    What’s the chance this whopper system is moving out by Saturday at 3pm? Thinking of setting up on driveway, out of mud. I know it’s going to be close, any chance it’s drying out by then?

    • Randy Keller April 17, 2017 at 2:33 pm - Reply

      it’s going to rain like cats and dogs….. sorry..

  5. Randy Keller April 17, 2017 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    Thanks a bunch Gary! Your the man! I show all my buddies up here in nebraska your work. I have them believing!

    Thanks again

    GO SOONERS!

  6. Urbanity April 17, 2017 at 3:01 pm - Reply

    My 100 degree forecast this weekend will get blown to shreds, darn it Gary, I thought I understood the LRC better. Oh well, no complaints (outside of my own stupidity)! Average highs in April around 68 degrees, seems like a pretty easy target to hit these days. Average high in July for Salina area is 93 degrees, I’m hoping that won’t be an easy target but fearing it will be.

    Jamstec modeling April future prediction has the entire globe above average temps Jun-Aug, and Sep-Nov for the most part, yet has Dec-Feb much much colder for all of United States. Also has the entire country dry Dec-Feb…which is not good for the weather fans on this blog. Gary, is there any tool you could use today that would give you the slightest confidence that Dec-Feb in the US will be much colder than average across the entire country?

    • Urbanity April 17, 2017 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      Make that dry for the entire nation…except the southeast.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 17, 2017 at 3:30 pm - Reply

      Kieth- I can tell you from my limited LRC understanding a short amswer, No. The LRC begins to transition in Late September into October, so no way right now to give any forcast on the upcoming winter outside of averages. Maybe you can look at El nino, LA Nina and other indicators but I bet they all lead to widely varying solutions ( ie, as in nothing you can put your finger on)

  7. Rockdoc April 17, 2017 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    Yo, Gary. I have been in moderation since noon. Guess this means you are busy at the station in meetings, or outside enjoying this great weather with Ms. Sunny!

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