Slight Risk Today

/Slight Risk Today

Slight Risk Today

Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening near KC.  In analyzing the data this morning it appears the triggering mechanism for the thunderstorms will be way out over central Kansas as the sun sets:

This map above shows the location of the front at 9 PM tonight. A few thunderstorms are forecast to form near the front and then we will have to see if they become organized at all.

Here is the summary from the SPC:

…SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
damaging winds are forecast this afternoon and evening from portions
of the southern High Plains into the central Plains and middle/upper
Mississippi Valley.

…Synopsis…
A shortwave trough embedded within a large-scale upper trough/low
over SK/MB will move eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains
through this evening, reaching the Upper Midwest by the end of the
period. Modest mid-level height falls associated with the shortwave
trough will overspread the central Plains and Upper Midwest through
the afternoon, while farther south across the southern High Plains
large-scale ascent will remain more nebulous. At the surface, a cold
front will continue to progress southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, while a dryline mixes
eastward across the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX by late afternoon.

…Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains…
The surface cold front and dryline will be the primary forcing
mechanisms that will focus severe weather chances today and tonight.
A cluster of elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across parts of SD into the Upper Midwest in
association with a low-level jet. These thunderstorms should track
northeastward through the early afternoon, posing an isolated hail
and gusty wind threat across WI. Convection should initiate along
the cold front from the Upper Midwest to central Plains by late
afternoon as it encounters an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass. Low-level moisture will likely be in place ahead of the
cold front across this region, as surface dewpoints increase into
the at least the low 60s in a narrow northeast to southwest corridor
from southwestern WI to central KS. Moderate to locally strong
instability is forecast to develop along/ahead of the front (MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg), as steep mid-level lapse rates overspread this
region from the southwest. Mid-level winds and related 0-6 km bulk
shear are forecast to be strongest across the Upper Midwest and
upper MS Valley closer to the previously mentioned shortwave trough.
This combination of instability and shear will support organized
updrafts along the cold front, and large hail may occur with any
initial supercell structures. Eventually, storms will probably grow
upscale into line segments owing to the linear forcing of the front,
with damaging winds becoming the predominant threat by early
evening.

Farther south along the dryline, convection will likely be isolated
in nature due to nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent. Still, a
couple of thunderstorms should initiate in the late afternoon
along/just east of the dryline, which should mix eastward across the
TX/OK Panhandles and west TX. Instability will be quite strong east
of the dryline (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) owing to plentiful diurnal
heating, likely low to mid 60s surface dewpoints, and very steep
mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML. Although mid-level
winds will be weaker compared to locations farther north, a veering
wind profile in low to mid levels and effective bulk shear values of
30-35 kt will be adequate for supercell structures, and large hail
will be the main threat with any storm that can form, in addition to
some damaging straight-line winds. Very large hail (2+ inches in
diameter) may occur owing to the strong instability forecast to be
present. An isolated tornado may also occur in the early evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens slightly. The prospect for any
convection becomes more conditional with southwestward extent along
the dryline into west TX, with large hail/damaging winds still
possible, but on an even more isolated basis compared to the eastern
TX Panhandle/western OK.

Gary

2017-04-16T08:03:27+00:00 April 15th, 2017|General|19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete April 15, 2017 at 7:45 am - Reply

    Happy Easter weekend to you Gary. Do you have any predictions on how much rain the metro may see out of this rain today?

    • Gary April 15, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

      No rain today. There is a chance after 10 PM tonight. We have to see where the thunderstorms form.

      Gary

  2. Randy Keller April 15, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

    thanks Gary! you rock!

    GO SOONERS!

    • Heat MIser April 15, 2017 at 11:37 am - Reply

      Go Sooners? Are they playing in some sport right now?

  3. KS Jones April 15, 2017 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    Looks like the storm is ahead of schedule.
    At 6 PM, thunderheads began developing between the Big Blue & Republican Rivers and they appear to be drifting this way (east).
    Have had constant rumbling and a few loud claps of thunder that was audible over my noisy equipment, which compelled me to come inside.

  4. Weatherby Tom April 15, 2017 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    The radar looks amazing to our west. Hope these storms roll im later and stay just below severe level. COME ON. WHERE IS EVERYONE??

  5. KS Jones April 15, 2017 at 9:13 pm - Reply

    The storm cell that came through here was moving slow, and as a result it dropped a lot of rain west of the Big Blue. The NWS website out of Hastings NE says they got 4″in northern Riley county and they posted flash flood warnings there. That flood watch was also posted on the NWS website out of Topeka, but they are saying only 2″ fell in there. There is always a great difference in rain totals reported from those two websites and Hastings has always proven to be more accurate for this vicinity.
    We’re just east of the Blue. The storm has finally drifted east of here and we got 3/4″ between 6:30 and 9 PM. Despite the fact that the NWS posted severe weather watches over us for the duration of the storm, we had a gentle rain with no wind.

  6. Snow Miser April 15, 2017 at 9:33 pm - Reply

    3 games in a row I don’t watch the game, and now, 3 games in a row the Royals win.

    • rickmckc April 15, 2017 at 11:21 pm - Reply

      Well then, Snow Miser, you know what we need you to do tomorrow. Step away from the remote!

      • Snow Miser April 16, 2017 at 12:29 am - Reply

        I’ll keep doing it until the streak ends.

  7. Dave LS April 15, 2017 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    I have to watch win or lose, nature of the game. Weather wise, I think we get a nice .50″ tonight maybe a little more for some places.

  8. Mr. Pete April 15, 2017 at 10:49 pm - Reply

    Massive wall of water moving this way

  9. Three7s April 15, 2017 at 11:49 pm - Reply

    Looks like some training cells coming in. Could be some flooding by the looks of it.

  10. Dave LS April 15, 2017 at 11:52 pm - Reply

    The sound of rain tonight is just the ticket. SKC won and the ROYALS won. Just another night for KC.

  11. Snow Miser April 16, 2017 at 12:28 am - Reply

    The elongated shape of the storm system coming through the area now, coupled with its east-west movement, makes it look like the whole KC area could get quite a lot of rain tonight.

    • Snow Miser April 16, 2017 at 12:38 am - Reply

      Actually it’s more like E-SE movement so I think the southern half of the metro might get more.

  12. Adam April 16, 2017 at 12:29 am - Reply

    Wow that wind sure picked up.

  13. Kurt April 16, 2017 at 12:56 am - Reply

    I’ll be able to mow in the morning, although not growing as fast. We missed the rains up here. Very scatttered and hit or miss. Looks to be setting up almost like a summer pattern with no real organization at least up here

  14. Bill in Lawrence April 16, 2017 at 7:34 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Easter/Sunday to you shirt and to all of the 20/20 Bloggers.

    Picked up 1.75 last night; best single running rain we have had here since May 2016. While the pond will be short 2-3 feet of full reservoir, it is full enough with enough structure to get me through at least early August before it is back down to where it was a month ago, It is wonderful!!! Thank you cycle 4 for channeling some of your inner cycle 2!! LOL

    I have stated a few times that I thought there were just enough players to keep us from some sort of Armageddon type drought situation or even a 2012 situation and I still believe even in cycles 5-7 we will get just enough relief to keep us in decent shape. However, I have no dreams that this is going to somehow flip and be a wet summer like last year. This is still the LRC of 2016-2017 with the ridge being the alpha player and it will be very hot and incredibly dry in stretches. In other words, I am going to enjoy this cycle 4 and the fact that some of the minor players have come to play ball in this cycle becuase in the upcoming cycles, they may win a game or two, but they do not have a deep tournament run in them.

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

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