Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening near KC.  In analyzing the data this morning it appears the triggering mechanism for the thunderstorms will be way out over central Kansas as the sun sets:

This map above shows the location of the front at 9 PM tonight. A few thunderstorms are forecast to form near the front and then we will have to see if they become organized at all.

Here is the summary from the SPC:

…SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
damaging winds are forecast this afternoon and evening from portions
of the southern High Plains into the central Plains and middle/upper
Mississippi Valley.

…Synopsis…
A shortwave trough embedded within a large-scale upper trough/low
over SK/MB will move eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains
through this evening, reaching the Upper Midwest by the end of the
period. Modest mid-level height falls associated with the shortwave
trough will overspread the central Plains and Upper Midwest through
the afternoon, while farther south across the southern High Plains
large-scale ascent will remain more nebulous. At the surface, a cold
front will continue to progress southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, while a dryline mixes
eastward across the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX by late afternoon.

…Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains…
The surface cold front and dryline will be the primary forcing
mechanisms that will focus severe weather chances today and tonight.
A cluster of elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across parts of SD into the Upper Midwest in
association with a low-level jet. These thunderstorms should track
northeastward through the early afternoon, posing an isolated hail
and gusty wind threat across WI. Convection should initiate along
the cold front from the Upper Midwest to central Plains by late
afternoon as it encounters an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass. Low-level moisture will likely be in place ahead of the
cold front across this region, as surface dewpoints increase into
the at least the low 60s in a narrow northeast to southwest corridor
from southwestern WI to central KS. Moderate to locally strong
instability is forecast to develop along/ahead of the front (MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg), as steep mid-level lapse rates overspread this
region from the southwest. Mid-level winds and related 0-6 km bulk
shear are forecast to be strongest across the Upper Midwest and
upper MS Valley closer to the previously mentioned shortwave trough.
This combination of instability and shear will support organized
updrafts along the cold front, and large hail may occur with any
initial supercell structures. Eventually, storms will probably grow
upscale into line segments owing to the linear forcing of the front,
with damaging winds becoming the predominant threat by early
evening.

Farther south along the dryline, convection will likely be isolated
in nature due to nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent. Still, a
couple of thunderstorms should initiate in the late afternoon
along/just east of the dryline, which should mix eastward across the
TX/OK Panhandles and west TX. Instability will be quite strong east
of the dryline (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) owing to plentiful diurnal
heating, likely low to mid 60s surface dewpoints, and very steep
mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML. Although mid-level
winds will be weaker compared to locations farther north, a veering
wind profile in low to mid levels and effective bulk shear values of
30-35 kt will be adequate for supercell structures, and large hail
will be the main threat with any storm that can form, in addition to
some damaging straight-line winds. Very large hail (2+ inches in
diameter) may occur owing to the strong instability forecast to be
present. An isolated tornado may also occur in the early evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens slightly. The prospect for any
convection becomes more conditional with southwestward extent along
the dryline into west TX, with large hail/damaging winds still
possible, but on an even more isolated basis compared to the eastern
TX Panhandle/western OK.

Gary