How A Dry Pattern Can Become Wet: The Seasonal Difference

/How A Dry Pattern Can Become Wet: The Seasonal Difference

How A Dry Pattern Can Become Wet: The Seasonal Difference

Good morning bloggers,

For years now Weather2020 has been discussing how the weather we experience at the surface can vary from cycle to cycle and from season to season.

  • In the winter of 2015-2016 (last year) Kansas City was not in the right spot for storm systems and only 5.9″ of snow fell. When we transitioned from winter into spring the pattern suddenly got wet.
  • This year in Lake Tahoe storm systems have consistently hit from winter into spring. This is a direct cause of being near the long term long wave trough over the eastern Pacific and upstream from a very stormy pattern.

If you are near a long term long wave trough, it would be easy to forecast a wet spring after a wet winter. If you are near a long term long wave ridge, like Kansas City is this year, it is much more difficult to make that forecast.  The weather pattern that is cycling as described by the LRC is the direct cause of the drought ending winter season that just happened out west.

Yesterday, Rockdoc, one of our bloggers posted a link to an article which discussed potential causes of the ending to the California drought. I just read through it and they are very close to finding the answer to the puzzle.  They are narrowing in on the LRC, which is my hypothesis describing the cycling pattern. I will post the link in a second. Here is an excerpt from the article:  “The new research indicates that the wave pattern may provide an additional source of predictability that sometimes may be more important than the impacts of sea surface temperature changes. First, however, scientists need to better understand why and when the wave pattern emerges.”  Exactly! I will be addressing this article and research that is being done.  Our “Cyclicality of patterns: A validation of the LRC” paper is almost complete and we should have it ready for submission and publishing within weeks.  Remember there are thousands of peer review papers on Global Climate Change. There are none on the LRC and the cycling pattern as of this time. I predict that there will be thousands on the LRC as well in the next few decades.  Here is the link to that article:  https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/126310/scientists-link-recent-california-droughts-and-floods-distinctive-atmospheric

Speaking of links posted by Rockdoc yesterday, you were all having a rather good discussion on the topic of climate change and funding from the government.  The government could very well cut the type of funding that allowed for the research of this research.  It is something to pay close attention to.

So, as they narrow in on what we have been describing to you for decades already in our KSHB and Weather2020 blogs and on the air in Kansas City, Tulsa, Joplin, and Milwaukee, we will continue our pursuit of getting this incredible forecast technology out to the world.

The pattern is cycling as described by the LRC and this pattern may end up being a wet spring pattern. Another one of our bloggers, Mowermike, insisted all winter that we need to be patient and see how this pattern produces in the spring. He pointed out last year that it went from very dry to very wet and very fast.  Many of you have your own experiences and insights that should not be underestimated. I appreciate all of the constructive thoughts on all of this and we can all learn from it. This weather pattern may be about to get very wet. I am not 100% certain, but you can not deny what is in the forecast for the next two weeks. And, it fits the LRC quit well. How?

For a storm during the winter to produce snow you really need one of three main things to happen:

  1. Cold air is in place and the storm tracks just south of your location in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Even if it isn’t extremely cold, but there is some cold air to work with it will snow in the comma head
  2. Deep cold air is in place and a storm drops in to your west. The warm advection pattern can produce inches of snow before the warm air moves in
  3. Alberta clipper type systems tracking in from the northwest. If they track just southwest of your location you can get into a pattern of snow and get a quick six inches of snow

These scenarios rarely happened near Kansas City as a result of the ridge. There were many systems but they did not take the right path, and when a couple finally did two weeks ago, there wasn’t enough cold air to work with.

Lake Tahoe and most of the west had a fascinating winter.  This same pattern continues to produce wet scenario after wet scenario. And, the wettest of the storm systems have happened right on the LRC cycle (56 to 61 days).

South Lake Tahoe Precipitation:

  • LRC Cycle 1 October 14th-17th: 5.02″ liquid (Tremendous snow at elevations above 8,500 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 2 December 10th – 16th: 4.55″ liquid (57-60 days after cycle 1) (Tremendous snow above around 5,000 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 3 February 6th – 10th: 7.76″ liquid (56-58 days after cycle 2) (Tremendous snow above around 5,000 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 4 April 6th – April 12th: 1.81″ (59 days after cycle 3) (Snow levels again at 5,000 feet with three more feet of snow above 7,000′)

From LRC Cycle 1 to LRC Cycle 4 this is 155 days, or a 58.33 day cycle. This storm is currently in progress and they are getting hit hard today. Avalanche Warnings are also in effect for the highest elevations.

If you look at previous LRC cycles you can see how these next two weeks could very well be wet in the spring when they were very dry in the winter near KC.  Let me show you in this video.

A Dry Pattern Can Suddenly Become Wet from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-04-16T08:02:58+00:00 April 14th, 2017|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Ben April 14, 2017 at 7:47 am - Reply

    So are you seeing any break in the wet weather? Do you anticipate the summer cycle to be wet also?The farmers are getting anxious to get in the field!

    • Gary April 14, 2017 at 9:31 am - Reply

      No, I do not think so. Once the ridge builds stronger, and it could happen in May or June, but definitely in July, it will be very difficult to get cold fronts down here and a stronger heat wave is very likely.

      Gary

  2. KS Jones April 14, 2017 at 9:48 am - Reply

    As for Trump’s proposed budget cuts — the entire NASA Education office is on the chopping block.

    http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter1/thin_env.html
    The Atmosphere is really a thin envelope surrounding the earth:
    99% of atmosphere is in lowest 30 km (18.63 miles)

  3. Ravi Kondapalli April 14, 2017 at 11:30 am - Reply

    I am not quite on board with the LRC. I know it can be a good tool from a discussion view point but I have not seen the same pattern repeat itself. Gary was pretty confident that we should be ready for a dry spring followed by dry, hot summer. At this point, the spring has been anything but dry. I suggest that we should just sit back and enjoy the variety of weather that Mother Nature throws at us rather than try to fit it into patterns. If the weather would so easily fit into patterns, I am sure it would have been a science by itself now.

  4. George April 14, 2017 at 11:58 am - Reply

    Getting some good rain in Grandview. Coming down fast and hard

  5. f00dl3 April 14, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    Can’t fund the nation when your too busy building WMDs and MOABs.

    • Richard April 14, 2017 at 3:05 pm - Reply

      That MOAB was built during the Iraq war. But using a $16 million baby like that for what? Reportedly it collapsed only 3 cave/tunnel complexes. I’m not against all wars. I’m against dumb wars. And I’m against “show” wars.

    • Brad61 April 14, 2017 at 6:34 pm - Reply

      So here we are with politics again. Can’t you people just let it go? This is a WEATHER blog!

      • L.B April 14, 2017 at 7:59 pm - Reply

        Yes it is a weather blog, However it is unfortunately charged with politics I.E global warming. With all the fake news’s out there and you would have to be a total idiot or a blind sloth not to see it. It is hard not to care about our country when ever you hear someone say something that you personally believe could slap her in the face. This is still the best place on earth to live. I just do not under stand why more people do not want to move to Russia or china or the middle east? seems like they would be more happy there. Why screw this up? there are plenty of other places you can live with a political climate you can adore

  6. L.B April 14, 2017 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    cant have a nation to fund with out them either

  7. Richard April 14, 2017 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Using the LRC you did not think it would be such a dry winter (14.5 inches of snow prediction)
    And last week you said you did not expect such a wet Spring. Was that comment because of the dry winter we had ?
    How does the LRC help when it throws out big curve balls for entire seasons.

    And you were expecting a big drought for summer. Will that be another curve ball ?

    Speaking of curve balls, on sports radio, I think you predicted the Royals to win 90 plus games. They need to get busy. 😊

    • Richard April 14, 2017 at 3:10 pm - Reply

      Not that I am complaining, because I too thought it would be a drier Spring. But I based that on my crystal ball, not the LRC 😄

    • Gary April 14, 2017 at 3:56 pm - Reply

      Richard, we did think it would be a dry winter. That is an incredibly accurate Weather2020 forecast. We forecasted below average rain and snow and it was below average rain and snow. Specifically forecasting “under 15″ of snow for the third year in a row” which is exactly what I said, is really a good forecast. To forecast 5″ of snow again this year would be like forecasting 50″ of snow in a snowy winter. I don’t believe I would have issue a forecast that intense. I may say 30″ of snow, but if 50″ falls is that forecast inaccurate? I say no it is not.

      Anyway, no big deal. We aren’t always going to be right. I hate droughts and heat waves. I still am forecasting a hot and dry summer, which means above average temperatures and below average rainfall this summer. The spring, on the other hand has already surprised me, but we can see within the LRC how this is possible. Let’s see how it plays out.

      Gary

  8. Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

    Gary, I wonder if there was a subtle “shift” in the 5th wave that may have “adjusted” the positioning of the trough and ULLs that would have allowed for this wet period? I think it would be interesting to look at that based on what was reported in those articles I linked to.

    A shift of just a few hundred miles could have done the trick. The big question is what will happen when the wet time frame cycles back around, plus the jet stream moving further north. Just a thought. Map out those 5th waves!

    • Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 6:46 pm - Reply

      PS, looking forward to seeing you at Nebraska Furniture Mart. Can you repost time etc.? My mind is gel after being in the field most of the day followed by 3.5 hour drive back to town 😊 Thanks.

      • Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 7:02 pm - Reply

        I just watched your video and saw the times 11:00-1:00pm. See you then. Are you bringing any books to sell?

        • Gary April 14, 2017 at 7:59 pm - Reply

          YES, and I will personally sign each one!

    • Gary April 14, 2017 at 7:59 pm - Reply

      The 5th wave you discuss is encompassed within the LRC. It is just discussion by the other meteorologists, scientiststs trying to figure this out. From 4 wave, to 3 wave, to 5th wave…..It’s the LRC.

      Gary

  9. Alex Pickman April 14, 2017 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    Anyone been watching the Dimmitt, TX supercell the last few hours??? What a storm!!! Absolutely Prolific tornado producer. Amazing pics coming in. Picturesque cone tornado to a massive wedge. Gotta love these marginal days producing some of the best storms!!

  10. Snow Miser April 14, 2017 at 10:41 pm - Reply

    I think I’ve discovered the secret to getting the Royals to win: Me not watching the game. Both yesterday and today I deliberately didn’t watch the game on TV, and both games they won.

    • Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 11:42 pm - Reply

      Good, you can no longer watch the games. Instead you can only listen on small “pocket” transistor radio, just like I listened to the Detroit Tigers growing up.

      We had a slew of them in class for the 1968 World Series. Teachers finally brought in “big” radios into each classroom so we could listen to the games in class😊

Leave A Comment