Good morning bloggers,

For years now Weather2020 has been discussing how the weather we experience at the surface can vary from cycle to cycle and from season to season.

  • In the winter of 2015-2016 (last year) Kansas City was not in the right spot for storm systems and only 5.9″ of snow fell. When we transitioned from winter into spring the pattern suddenly got wet.
  • This year in Lake Tahoe storm systems have consistently hit from winter into spring. This is a direct cause of being near the long term long wave trough over the eastern Pacific and upstream from a very stormy pattern.

If you are near a long term long wave trough, it would be easy to forecast a wet spring after a wet winter. If you are near a long term long wave ridge, like Kansas City is this year, it is much more difficult to make that forecast.  The weather pattern that is cycling as described by the LRC is the direct cause of the drought ending winter season that just happened out west.

Yesterday, Rockdoc, one of our bloggers posted a link to an article which discussed potential causes of the ending to the California drought. I just read through it and they are very close to finding the answer to the puzzle.  They are narrowing in on the LRC, which is my hypothesis describing the cycling pattern. I will post the link in a second. Here is an excerpt from the article:  “The new research indicates that the wave pattern may provide an additional source of predictability that sometimes may be more important than the impacts of sea surface temperature changes. First, however, scientists need to better understand why and when the wave pattern emerges.”  Exactly! I will be addressing this article and research that is being done.  Our “Cyclicality of patterns: A validation of the LRC” paper is almost complete and we should have it ready for submission and publishing within weeks.  Remember there are thousands of peer review papers on Global Climate Change. There are none on the LRC and the cycling pattern as of this time. I predict that there will be thousands on the LRC as well in the next few decades.  Here is the link to that article:  https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/126310/scientists-link-recent-california-droughts-and-floods-distinctive-atmospheric

Speaking of links posted by Rockdoc yesterday, you were all having a rather good discussion on the topic of climate change and funding from the government.  The government could very well cut the type of funding that allowed for the research of this research.  It is something to pay close attention to.

So, as they narrow in on what we have been describing to you for decades already in our KSHB and Weather2020 blogs and on the air in Kansas City, Tulsa, Joplin, and Milwaukee, we will continue our pursuit of getting this incredible forecast technology out to the world.

The pattern is cycling as described by the LRC and this pattern may end up being a wet spring pattern. Another one of our bloggers, Mowermike, insisted all winter that we need to be patient and see how this pattern produces in the spring. He pointed out last year that it went from very dry to very wet and very fast.  Many of you have your own experiences and insights that should not be underestimated. I appreciate all of the constructive thoughts on all of this and we can all learn from it. This weather pattern may be about to get very wet. I am not 100% certain, but you can not deny what is in the forecast for the next two weeks. And, it fits the LRC quit well. How?

For a storm during the winter to produce snow you really need one of three main things to happen:

  1. Cold air is in place and the storm tracks just south of your location in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Even if it isn’t extremely cold, but there is some cold air to work with it will snow in the comma head
  2. Deep cold air is in place and a storm drops in to your west. The warm advection pattern can produce inches of snow before the warm air moves in
  3. Alberta clipper type systems tracking in from the northwest. If they track just southwest of your location you can get into a pattern of snow and get a quick six inches of snow

These scenarios rarely happened near Kansas City as a result of the ridge. There were many systems but they did not take the right path, and when a couple finally did two weeks ago, there wasn’t enough cold air to work with.

Lake Tahoe and most of the west had a fascinating winter.  This same pattern continues to produce wet scenario after wet scenario. And, the wettest of the storm systems have happened right on the LRC cycle (56 to 61 days).

South Lake Tahoe Precipitation:

  • LRC Cycle 1 October 14th-17th: 5.02″ liquid (Tremendous snow at elevations above 8,500 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 2 December 10th – 16th: 4.55″ liquid (57-60 days after cycle 1) (Tremendous snow above around 5,000 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 3 February 6th – 10th: 7.76″ liquid (56-58 days after cycle 2) (Tremendous snow above around 5,000 feet)
  • LRC Cycle 4 April 6th – April 12th: 1.81″ (59 days after cycle 3) (Snow levels again at 5,000 feet with three more feet of snow above 7,000′)

From LRC Cycle 1 to LRC Cycle 4 this is 155 days, or a 58.33 day cycle. This storm is currently in progress and they are getting hit hard today. Avalanche Warnings are also in effect for the highest elevations.

If you look at previous LRC cycles you can see how these next two weeks could very well be wet in the spring when they were very dry in the winter near KC.  Let me show you in this video.

A Dry Pattern Can Suddenly Become Wet from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary