Thursday’s Weather Story

/Thursday’s Weather Story

Thursday’s Weather Story

Good morning bloggers,

There is a very complex weather pattern that continues to cycle across the Northern Hemisphere as we move into the middle of April. The same pattern that set up last fall continues today. It was dry for almost six full months and a drought was developing, then this pattern suddenly produced 13 straight days of rain over the plains states that has alleviated that developing drought for n ow, and there is some hope that we will get wet once again in these next two weeks of storm systems. May will certainly be interesting as I am seeing the potential for a low latitude omega block which we will discuss in a few weeks.

Most of the nation is having a rather quiet day on this April 13th.  There are three main features we are tracking.

  • Morning cold rain in Chicago
  • A disturbance tracking northeast across the southern plains
  • Another storm out west

Here is the radar image as of 7:40 AM:

Lake Tahoe is getting more snow today. It has been an incredible winter season there and across most of the west.

Lake Tahoe is one of the most beautiful places in the world. If you have ever been skiing there, the views from high up on the slopes is unlike anywhere else in the world as you can see above.

Today’s Weather Video:  This video shows the overall pattern tracking across the United States right now. A disturbance moving northeast across the plains will bring some rain and thunderstorm activity northeastward with a very low risk of severe weather. The second system on Saturday needs to be watched and monitored closely.

The April 13th Weather Pattern from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-04-14T07:05:47+00:00 April 13th, 2017|General|26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. stl78 April 13, 2017 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Weather doesn’t look as though it will cooperate for our big move Friday

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2017 at 9:05 am - Reply

      Sucks man, that storm might follow you a ways up there on your trip north. Good luck up there, great fishing in MN, I’m jealous.

  2. SteveA April 13, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Gary,
    you mention potential of low latitude omega block. what would b implications if this develops for corn belt states. thank

    • Gary April 13, 2017 at 10:40 am - Reply

      Steve,

      We haven’t put our weather finger on that yet. It is something we are currently analyzing and we should have a good take on it within ten days.

      Gary

  3. stl78 April 13, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

    Fortunately we’re just loading everything into a trailer for now. House won’t be ready up there for a little while longer and yes the fishing is outstanding

  4. Snow Miser April 13, 2017 at 10:29 am - Reply

    I notice that, once again, all of these rain systems are arriving overnight. Last summer I griped about the MCS’s waking me up with thunder in the middle of the night, but these aren’t even MCS’s and they STILL arriving mostly overnight. Somebody needs to do a study of rainfall averages by hour, maybe for each month of the year. That would be really interesting, and I’d be willing to bet that the rainiest hour is, like, 3-4am.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2017 at 10:45 am - Reply

      That study has already been conducted, and midwest/plains do receive MOST of our summer precip at night from MCS , like 65% or so falls at night. It’s mostly elevated convection as well, our saving grace for the summer is the LLJ.

      • Snow Miser April 13, 2017 at 10:59 am - Reply

        Do you have a link to it anywhere? Would be interesting to read.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2017 at 11:25 am - Reply

          The study was coined “PECAN” by NWS. I don’t have a link but Google NSW pecan and you’ll find it. Washington Post had a great write up June 12, 2015

        • Snow Miser April 13, 2017 at 2:06 pm - Reply

          I presume you’re referring to this:
          http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/pecan/
          I’ve seen that site before, and while it’s interesting, I had in mind something more detailed.

  5. Troy April 13, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Odd activity for this time of year. Yesterdays storms in Central KS were very slow movers and just kind of randomly meandered some going SE and some E or NE. Seems more typical of mid summer than early spring. Steering winds aloft must have been very weak.

  6. FARMERMIKE April 13, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply

    scored big time last nite when a small system went thru my area of north central kansas.
    2.80″ in 40-45 minutes. This storm did wonders for my place by finally having some runoff
    for the ponds. more to come hopefully…………………….

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2017 at 3:20 pm - Reply

      You’re killing it man, I haven’t had a 1″ rain yet this year! I’m hopi g that changes with the next set up, I want some Morels and it’s too dry down here for them to grow abundantly. Need a soggy warm period, ASAP!

  7. Rockdoc April 13, 2017 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Good Afternoon Gary and fellow weather bloggers. Just came across some great research being performed by NCAR regarding potential causes of California’s drought and why it broke this year. They have just published a new paper on part of their study. There was another paper published just a little earlier.

    The studies have to do with what they call wavenumber 5, which is nased on upper level atmospheric conditions of alternating high and low pressure areas that develop. They are looking at this phenomena as a possible tool for long range weather predictons similar to El Nino and La Nina.

    The key appears to be where the ridges set up and how persistent they are. Do they cycle back around to same spot (Lezaks LRC) or shift? They are looking at 200mb heights and jetstream and Rossby wave. For a great read that is easily understood check out this link.

    https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/126310/scientists-link-recent-california-droughts-and-floods-distinctive-atmospheric

    I hope they can continue their research, but with almost all weather related funding being pulled this important work may not continue 😣

    Nice day up here around Concordia, KS. Hoping next round of rain holds off till after 5 since we’re working outdoors. They had a healthy dose of rain here yesterday including some lightening. Have a Great Thursday everybody.

    • joe April 13, 2017 at 4:13 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      Was just curious, can you cite your sources showing funding is being cut to weather research? I am aware that global climate change will be taking a hit however, have seen nothing that indicates weather research will. Some would say they are one in the same however, from a budgeting prospective, they would be funded separately. Personally, I would like to see some of the billions being spent on global climate change to go towards weather research. To be clear, I believe global climate change is occurring and will continue as it is part of our natural cycle, I just am not convinced about the “catastrophic” man-made global warming theory. respectfully…..:D

      • REAL HUMEDUDE April 13, 2017 at 4:58 pm - Reply

        Joe, NOAA funding to be cut by 17%. NOAA funds NWS. That’s not a liberal spin. Just Google NOAA budget cuts, you’ll find what you’re looking for as far as evidence. How that budget cuts gets applied to various research is anyone’s guess, all we can deduce is there will less research conducted and less advances in models and satellite tech

        • joe April 13, 2017 at 7:42 pm - Reply

          Real Hume,

          I understand that and never brought politics i.e., liberal, democrat or republican into it. My point was I realize there will be budget cuts however, those cuts are specifically allocated and not necessarily equally. I have maintained a 90 million dollar budget so I understand the finer points of budgeting. My point was I have heard many blanket statements regarding cuts but no real data to back it up. For example, NOAA may receive a 17% decrease in funding however, what was the increase they received over the last 8 years to study climate change, 15%, 20% 30%???? See my point? so if over the last 8 years NOAA had a budget increase of 20% to study climate change but now are being cut 17%, they are still net 3%. Possibly no real impact on their core mission/purpose. Does that make sense? I wasn’t trying to be argumentative nor throw shade at anybody, just trying to provide prospective. At the end of the day, I think that cut was directly tied to global warming/climate change and not so much towards weather. Just my 2 cents.

    • Gary April 13, 2017 at 6:36 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      I have not read this yet, but you know what my take will be, likely you do anyway. The number one reason the drought ended is due to the fact that the cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC set up perfectly for them. This is going to be showcased in our paper to be submitted for peer review in a few weeks. It is almost completed.

      I also think it is incredible that this very dry pattern that lasted almost 6 months got wet two weeks ago, and there are some indications that it could be very wet again soon. I will try to focus on this in tomorrows blog entry. I just looked at two of the three previous cycles and still need look at cycle 1 and you can see how it could be very wet in the spring. And, how it could be forecasted.

      We will be at the Nebraska Furniture Mart Saturday at 11 AM Saturday for our Severe Weather Day.

      GAry

  8. Rockdoc April 13, 2017 at 5:24 pm - Reply

    Real Humedude. You beat me to the “punchline”. Also, this is just one agency that funds earth and weather research. The Jet Propulsion Lab (NASA) also funds weather research including satellites that provide data for weather prediction and info for the NWS. The newest GOES16 satellite was from here. The imagery is just stunning and allow meterologists get a better handle on severe weather systems.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/nih-doe-office-science-face-deep-cuts-trumps-first-budget

    Although NSF budget cuts have not been announced, which provided grant funding for the NCAR Study, researchers have been told their funding may be pulled. EPA will be cut by over 30%, so much for clean water and clean air. We cannot be the world leader if we stop funding scientific research.

    Also, funding is being cut for R&D of energy efficient equipment and appliances and other programs at DOE. NIH is taking a large hit as well. So much for cancer and other disease research.

    As Hume said, google Trump budget and you will find quite a bit. WSJ and Bloomberg, as well as TheHill, Washington Post, NYT, Reuters and AP have reported on the budget. This was a basic budget released. The more detailed budget comes out in late April or early May.

    • joe April 13, 2017 at 7:50 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      Until the actual; budget comes out, it is speculation and propaganda by special interest groups and the media. As I stated above, I would be interested in seeing how each line item is affected before jumping to conclusions. I agree that it would be a shame to cut such things as the EPA, NASA and the like however, keep in mind, it is important to know how much their budgets increased to study climate change over the last 8 years before making claims we will no longer fund clean air, water or cancer research. Any politician that actually makes those things less of a priority is committing political suicide. In my humble opinion, I don’t believe what I hear and read in the news and internet until I fact check it straight from the source. Hopefully that helps clarify the purpose of my question above I believe in science thus the pursuit of truth. To me, that means digging deeper than the surface to find the real facts 😀

      • Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 11:11 am - Reply

        Those were real numbers in the preliminary budget with stated goals of what would be cut. Did you even read the budget?

  9. MMike April 13, 2017 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    It’s called cutting the fat…every business has to do it. Too many folks in government jobs earning way too much money and not achieving a damn thing!

    Our government spends entirely too much money, time for change.

    Nobody said change was easy. The government needs to spend more time getting folks back to work and forcing them to keep their jobs instead of handing so much out from the tax dollars of people that actually work.

    People use to come to this country for a new outlook and jobs.. Now they come for all the free stuff the government hands out.

    Look around you, look how people dress, look at what they do all day, trash!! Our country is full of worthless trash and underachieving Americans…it’s really pathetic!

    Time to force these people back to work and stop piggy-backing on the good folks that are actually working and making something of theirselves. Makes me sick all the bums I see everyday.

    • Rockdoc April 14, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply

      I find your statements against government workers and their salaries to be offensive. How much would you propose paying an engineer or doctor in government services? How about nurses at the VA? Guess what, they are paid at lower scale than counterparts in private industry.

      I’m tired of people who make statements like yours because they just show your ignorance and willingness to accept whatever is put out by Faux News and other anti-government groups.

  10. MMike April 13, 2017 at 8:22 pm - Reply

    The government is destroying this country…the fighting between the two parties is embarrassing and they have gotten nothing done in the last 3 months.

    Exactly what all other countries want to see…fighting within, destroying ourselves. They better stop all the bickering and get to work or we’re gonna have some real problems.

    • joe April 13, 2017 at 10:37 pm - Reply

      MMike,

      Do you work South of the River? If so, how does one get in contact with you? So much truth above 😀

      • MMike April 14, 2017 at 6:12 am - Reply

        Joe,

        Email Gary and he will give you my email.

        Talk to you soon!!

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