Another quiet severe weather day!

/Another quiet severe weather day!

Another quiet severe weather day!

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday we talked about the storm systems showing up in the second half of April. And, they are still showing up, but they appear to be a bit weaker and drier than yesterdays models. Most of the rain continues to show up in the days 11 to 15 range.

GFS Rainfall Forecast for the next ten days:

As you can see, there is still a nice amount of rain in some areas. The pink shade is 2″ of rain or more. Near Kansas City we are in the 0.50″ to 1.75″ range over the next ten days. This is a bit less than the models were showing yesterday.

Here is a product from the Storm Prediction Center showing the thunderstorm outlook for today:

If we get into a pattern where there are thunderstorms around each day, then the amounts of rain can add up fast if you get underneath a few of these thunderstorms. Today’s chance is concentrating over southeastern New Mexico where the SPC also has a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot.

It will be a gorgeous day. I am analyzing the pattern and we will go more in-depth in tomorrows blog entry. Have a great Wednesday.

Gary

2017-04-13T08:12:37+00:00 April 12th, 2017|General|6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. Urbanity April 12, 2017 at 8:59 am - Reply

    I would say if you receive the low end of the projected rainfall (.50) then that would be considered bad news for the summer. This time of year, 1/2″ of rain in any 10 day period in eastern KS is awfully low. But like I always say, the GFS beyond 5-6 days out is worthless….so expect it to change for better or for worse.

  2. KS Jones April 12, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

    Too much rain can be worse than too little rain, especially at planting time, and the map that was posted yesterday looked really bad– this one today, not so bad.
     Here’s a link that shows the planting dates for various crops.
    http://www.ag-risk-solutions.com/pages/custom.php?id=23944

  3. Richard April 12, 2017 at 10:51 am - Reply

    Gary
    Are you still expecting a drought and big heat waves this summer ?
    When does your summer forecast come out

  4. turd ferguson April 12, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

    that last graphic looks like there is a “stiff” chance of severe weather

  5. KS Jones April 12, 2017 at 5:59 pm - Reply

    The first cell in the line of storm cells slipped south of here as it tracked southeast from Concordia. There are currently three severe weather boxes on the NWS radar and the northern one way out by Phillipsburg looks like it could pass through here (if it doesn’t dissipate first).

  6. Mr. Pete April 12, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

    Rain on the radar folks

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