Second Half Of April Storm Systems?

/Second Half Of April Storm Systems?

Second Half Of April Storm Systems?

Good morning bloggers,

The coldest air that happened within this pattern occurred during the middle of December with 9 degrees below zero happening on December 17th. We are in that part of the pattern today, and this morning there is a freeze just northwest of Kansas City. Low clouds were thick over northwest Missouri overnight and we didn’t get the frost or freeze, but temperatures did drop into the 30s this morning.  The pattern continues to cycle in that 56 to 61 day range as described by the LRC and what happens in the next two weeks will be fascinating to track. Do you remember the Christmas Eve-Christmas Day storm?  Take a look at the pattern from December 25th, Christmas Day:

It’s incredible how similar these two maps look.  The second map is from one of the recent GFS models that showed the pattern so similar and exactly 117 days later, or a 58.5 day cycle. Now, this is just on the model. We often see the models show various versions of the pattern when it is two weeks out or so. We will see a cycle 1 version of this pattern one day, then this cycle 2 version above on a mother model run, then the February version will show up. In the end it will be the April version and it will be different. The “same” but different as Gary England called it around a decade ago.

What does this mean for the second half of April?  The models continue to insist on a wet second half of this month.  The first test will be around Friday, with the second chance around Easter Sunday night into Monday, but this larger storm isn’t due in until later in the month. So, several chances are showing up.

This would again be incredible, especially after what happened to break the ice during the thirteen straight days of rain that ended just a few days ago. The storm systems are there that did cycle through in previous cycles. But, to produce this much rain as shown above over such a huge area is still something I am not ready to forecast.

Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

2017-04-12T08:09:31+00:00 April 11th, 2017|General|15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. MMike April 11, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

    Uh oh….that looks wet. Enjoying the sunshine right now though. We needed this dry stretch after the 2 week wet spell. I would prefer a 3 day wet spell, a 10 day break, a 1 day wet spell, a 7 day break, on and on. Perfect for the Landscape Industry. Good for our wonderful farmer’s out there, thanks for all the great crops you work hard on.

    Gary,

    The wet pattern look from the above GFS doesn’t appear to be driven by the same set-up that we experienced between March 24th and April 6th.(a lot of beautiful ULL’s that targeted our area) It looks to me that this is a stalled front with multiple little ripples(the great Don Harmon use to say ‘little ripples”) in the pattern producing areas of storms…..at least it looks that way in the next 7-9 days. More humid too…not a fast flow so slow moving storms where ever they develop or where ever the front sets up???

    Deep breathe on the Royals….they’ll be alright….going to win the next 10 out of 12 games…bank it!!

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 11, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply

      Moss sucks, not other way to say it. He is just awful, can’t hit the broadside of a barn right now. Couldn’t hit a beach ball with a whiffle bat. I say bench the guy until he finds a groove in batting practice or something, I’d rather see Bubba out there or anybody young getting a chance to grow than this old washed up Moss we over-paid for. Morales was too good to let go, we blew it
      We wont win 6 out of the next 12 MMIKE, you are dreaming.

      • MMike April 11, 2017 at 11:09 am - Reply

        Bloggers….

        Hume is calling me out!

        Okay, Hume 6 wins or less you win, 7 wins or more I win.

        Game on!

        Case of beer is the bet.

  2. KS Jones April 11, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

    Got down to 31° at Manhattan this morning, and the low temperature for Friday night is predicted to be 62°.

  3. Troy April 11, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

    I had 25 at my house in RP county and a neighbor in the River Valley had 21. Might hurt wheat that’s in the boot but there isn’t much wheat around here anymore.

  4. Urbanity April 11, 2017 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Gary, in looking at the precip map you showed, would this indicate that ridging has moved over the mountainous west from Montana down to Nevada/Arizona?

    • Gary April 11, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

      The ridges are in the same spots. Let’s see if this really comes together and produces. Many of these chances are suspect. Let’s take it one at a time.

      Gary

  5. Mr. Pete April 11, 2017 at 9:07 am - Reply

    So do we foresee any more freezes this year?

  6. Craig April 11, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Wow! That map for April 21 sure looks like a few severe storm setups are coming, too.

  7. Kathy April 11, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

    I looked back at the blog for the Christmas day storm, and found this: http://weather2020.com/2016/12/23/christmas-weekend-storm-system/#comments

    The SPC actually issued a slight risk of severe weather for areas just north and west of Kansas City. Granted, we didn’t get a huge amount of moisture during that event, but we did get something, so it will be interesting how the seasonal differences affect this pattern this time around. Severe weather or a lot of rain? or both?

  8. Jason April 11, 2017 at 11:07 am - Reply

    What happened to 2 weeks of a dry period? Poof I guess

  9. Jason April 11, 2017 at 11:08 am - Reply

    Big Crawfish and shrimp boil at my folks place in central Kansas on the 22nd. Hope it can stay dry that day.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 11, 2017 at 11:17 am - Reply

      Do you guys catch your own crawdads? I’ve hardly ever found appetizing crawdads for sale, amd those at restaurants are usually pretty gross. The best I’ve ever had was straight outta my creek, and you gotta time ot right when they are really big right before their die off

      • Jason April 11, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

        We have friends who live in Louisiana. They get crawfish and shrimp fresh off the boat, pack them in 3 huge Yeti coolers, and drive straight through to my parents place. They are never frozen, still alive, just on ice. So good! They bring oysters as well that we grill

  10. Rockdoc April 11, 2017 at 1:29 pm - Reply

    Lucky you Jason! This is prime crawdad season down south. Best mudbugs too. Ummmm, ummmm. With ice cold beers too 🍺🍺

    Jazz Heritage Festival will be cranking up in New Orleans the end of April thru 1st week of May. Always a good time.😊

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