Good morning bloggers,

The coldest air that happened within this pattern occurred during the middle of December with 9 degrees below zero happening on December 17th. We are in that part of the pattern today, and this morning there is a freeze just northwest of Kansas City. Low clouds were thick over northwest Missouri overnight and we didn’t get the frost or freeze, but temperatures did drop into the 30s this morning.  The pattern continues to cycle in that 56 to 61 day range as described by the LRC and what happens in the next two weeks will be fascinating to track. Do you remember the Christmas Eve-Christmas Day storm?  Take a look at the pattern from December 25th, Christmas Day:

It’s incredible how similar these two maps look.  The second map is from one of the recent GFS models that showed the pattern so similar and exactly 117 days later, or a 58.5 day cycle. Now, this is just on the model. We often see the models show various versions of the pattern when it is two weeks out or so. We will see a cycle 1 version of this pattern one day, then this cycle 2 version above on a mother model run, then the February version will show up. In the end it will be the April version and it will be different. The “same” but different as Gary England called it around a decade ago.

What does this mean for the second half of April?  The models continue to insist on a wet second half of this month.  The first test will be around Friday, with the second chance around Easter Sunday night into Monday, but this larger storm isn’t due in until later in the month. So, several chances are showing up.

This would again be incredible, especially after what happened to break the ice during the thirteen straight days of rain that ended just a few days ago. The storm systems are there that did cycle through in previous cycles. But, to produce this much rain as shown above over such a huge area is still something I am not ready to forecast.

Have a great Tuesday!

Gary