The Early Week Weather Pattern

/The Early Week Weather Pattern

The Early Week Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

An area of snow is spreading across Nebraska and South Dakota this morning as a clipper-like system is tracking across the plains into the Great Lakes states this morning. Here is the radar as of 7:45 AM this morning:

This afternoon, the surface storm associated with this wave will be tracking into the Chicago, IL vicinity with a band of rain and a few thunderstorms.  The snow will continue near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, and a cold front will be approaching Kansas City just as the Royals home openers first pitch is made around 3 PM.

Here is the set up for this afternoon:

The Royals then have Tuesday off, and game two at home will be Wednesday night. The latest NAM model has a dry forecast for Wednesday evening:

The rain chances appear they will increase later Wednesday night into Thursday. It is really going to be interesting later this week as some models have some decent rain and others do not.

Have a great day. We will look ahead to the set up later in the week tomorrow.

Gary

2017-04-11T08:42:48+00:00 April 10th, 2017|General|16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Ben April 10, 2017 at 8:02 am - Reply

    Gary do you still expect a freeze from April 10-17? We really need things to dry out and warm up the next couple weeks I hope these chances this week fizzle out

    • Gary April 10, 2017 at 8:12 am - Reply

      Tonight appears to be the best chance. This is the storm we thought could produce the freeze, and it will drop into the 30s by morning. There better not be one after this week. It could dip to near 32 degrees in the area tomorrow.

      Gary

      • Ben April 10, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

        Thanks

  2. Jason April 10, 2017 at 8:25 am - Reply

    Interesting there may be more rain this week. I was thinking we were going into a dry period for a couple weeks? Guess not.

  3. Urbanity April 10, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Gary, I am anticipating the LRC will hold true and we will be dry this week for the most part. KWCH out of Wichita is showing rain chances Wed-Sun here in central KS, seriously? We would need a stalled front and some heat on its southern fringe for that to happen, do you anticipate that kind of set up for central-eastern Kansas? That would not fit with the LRC. Can you give us a follow up on the “The Mean Ridge”, has the ridging greatly diminished for a period of time longer than you expected? Thanks for your blog.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

      Keith – there is supposed to be a stalled front later this week, why doesn’t that fit the LRC? Fronts don’t stall out in the winter, so this would be the time of year for that to happen and that part of LRC is untested. We know that fronts will come through, but with seasonal variations you can’t tell when those fronts will come back or completely stall out. I hate to be the bearer of bad news( or good news?), but your forecast off 100F by May and 120F all summer is just not going to happen. I figured you would be happy that your forecast will bust, right? The ridge was even there while you were getting your huge rains, the storms have slipped beneath the ridge, not so “mean” after all!

      • Urbanity April 10, 2017 at 9:43 am - Reply

        Hume, I thought I understood the ridge, but now I am not so sure….but, if it doesn’t rain this week we can blame it on the ridge. Stalled fronts will little upper air support during the year of the ridge should not produce much precipitation. If we get another deluge for a few days this would definitely fly in the face of the persistent ridging that should occur all year long.

        Regarding my temp forecast, it was 86 degrees here yesterday, ten days before it was forecasted to be 69 by accuweather. The same forecast exists for the April 22nd weekend, we will see what happens, because only the LRC can predict the weather pattern for the 22nd weekend this far out, and Gary says a big storm will ramp up that weekend, if so we should see some compression heating that easily exceeds the 86 we saw yesterday. The summer, who knows, but it would make sense to me that we could see record heat giving the projected long dry spells and tremendous ridging.

      • Gary April 10, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

        The front is actually stalling in response to yet another ridge right over the central plains once again. This will leave us with a very unstable air mass, and thus the potential for some rain. The NAM is now one of the drier solutions and only has .10″ to .25″ through Thursday evening. We will be analyzing this closely. If there are thunderstorms they would move fairly slowly for April, due to the ridge, and there could be spots with locally higher amounts.

        And, you are correct Real Humedude. The ridge was north of the storm systems that brought us the badly needed rain. Now, they are forming overhead once again. Let’s see what this part of the pattern brings. Remember we average 7.5″ of rain between now and the end of May. It always rains in every pattern. The question will be how much in this one. We broke the mold of the season for a two week stretch. Let’s see if that was a trend or just a blip on this season.

        Gary

        • Urbanity April 10, 2017 at 3:30 pm - Reply

          Arghhh! The ridge, “front stalling because of ridge leaving unstable airmass”..?? I thought the ridge created stability….perhaps the NAM precip output indicates this?
          Ridge=stability, Hume=correct, April 10th=frost advisory, cats&dogs=living together, mass hysteria=normalcy. What is going on here.

          • REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2017 at 3:45 pm - Reply

            Lol, I think he’s saying the stalled front will lead to the highly unstable airmass since we will be on the juicy side of the front. I like you, liken a ridge with stable airmasses however there is significant differences between a mean ridge and an anticyclone which we have learned to fear in this region. The anticyclone will Absolutly kill any trace of a cloud, where a mean Ridge can support thunderstorms when the right conditions present themselves. Gary has mentioned Tropical systems flush under ridges, so not unheard of in met world to get systems evolving beneath a ridge. However, you won’t see diddly under a anticyclone, that’s all I can tell you from a Layman

            • Gary April 10, 2017 at 4:30 pm - Reply

              The problem with this set up is that the front won’t just stall like in the summer, but it may quickly lift back to the north. How this process happens will decide whether we get any organized precipitation. The NAM continues to keep it mostly dry, but it only goes out to Thursday night.
              Gary

  4. Michael Casteel April 10, 2017 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Got a pleasant surprise at 12:30a.m. this morning. The cap must have broke, cause some thunderstorms formed just west of Maryville and gave us a healthy 1.01″ of rain. We had some hail too. Pea size to dime size for about twenty minutes. Hope you guys get some down south! Have a great Monday bloggers!
    Michael

    • Gary April 10, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

      I woke up and saw your area getting hit hard. That was nice!

  5. KS Jones April 10, 2017 at 5:15 pm - Reply

    Have had a Hawk Wind from the west all day today, and we are expected to get a freeze tonight.
    Burned the grassland yesterday, and the quarter-mile long firebreak I blazed through dense woodlands held the fire away from the house and other buildings. I worked on that firebreak for two weeks and had all the deadfalls and thatch removed from the trail, so I wasn’t expecting any surprises.

  6. Richard April 10, 2017 at 6:21 pm - Reply

    Winds have been strong the last few days. Pollen making me miserable. But I did throw my line out yesterday ! Caught zip, but good to be out.

    The last time the Royals got shut out in a home opener was Municipal Stadium 1971.
    Nice tribute to Ventura though.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE April 10, 2017 at 7:44 pm - Reply

      Richard…..you need a new fishing hole! You deserve better, experiment a little with some new places. I want you get a big one!

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