The final two storms in this series

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Good morning bloggers,

A series of six storm systems has been tracking across the United States.

  • Storm #4 of this series is now hitting the northeast hard
  • Storm #5 is now over the southern Rockies and western plains states
  • Storm #6 will be developing early next week

There will be a rather substantial break and shift in the pattern after storm #6 moves by and we can look for this part of the pattern to cycle back through near the end of May.  I am concerned that the jet stream will be much weaker and these storm systems will be farther north and much weaker in the fourth LRC cycle. If they are not that much weaker then that will be one way how the drought won’t begin building again.

Yesterday I showed this graphic on the air projecting the forecast outlook for the month of April:

This series of six storm systems was able to produce some wide spread rainfall and Kansas City actually ended up with above average rainfall in March as you can see on these March Stats:

Storm #4 is not done yet:

Winter storm warnings are in effect. This storm intensified as it moved into the northeast.  Boston will receive April snowflakes today with inland areas getting nearly a foot of snow.

Storm #5:

This next storm in the series is now spreading rain over Kansas and snow over the higher elevations farther west. This storm will be splitting in two or three pieces. Take a look:

On this map above, you can see the 500 mb forecast map valid tonight.  The storm moving out into the plains is caught underneath the main jet stream which is tracking across southern Canada north of this storm. Storm #5 will split into two pieces tonight with one piece over eastern Colorada and the main storm dropping southwest over New Mexico. This southern part will get ejected out on Monday as storm #6 develops.  Storm #5 will produce bands of rain out over the plains and then into the Mississippi River Valley by Monday night.  Here is the 24 hour rainfall forecast from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM Monday:

The latest data is much wetter on this storm #5 beginning with rain and thunderstorms in a thin April band near the south side of KC on Sunday morning.  Storm #5 is also producing this risk:

We will look at this severe weather set up later tomorrow and Monday. Then we will move onto storm #6:

Have a great Saturday! I have my first week off of the year from 41 Action News. I, of course, will be working on everything Weather2020, analyzing this fascinating pattern, working on our paper, and a lot more while heading out to California.  And, speaking of “heading” out, tonight I am emcee of the big Shave To Save fundraiser. And, then my vacation really begins around 10 PM tonight.

Gary

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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good Sunday morning to you sir. Picked up around .15 last night which brings my weekly total to around 2.5; in this LRC and in cycle 3, that is absolutely perfect!!! Even brough the pond up close to 1.5 feet!! 🙂 The interesting thing is, is that we were so close here to really filling everything; if we had managed to get one or two of those down pours Wednesday night, it really would have ran. A couple random thoughts on this early Sunday afternoon…. Looking ahead, the past 3 runs of the GFS showing my area gettin Close… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Not a drop last night.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Uh Oh. You know what happens when Gary leaves town. Does this mean there will be storm outbreak while he’s in Palm Springs? I bet with the moisture that they’ve received out west the desert region will be in bloom. Joshua Tree NP would be great to visit this time of year too!

rickmckc
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rickmckc

Actually, those 850MB temps and 500MB thicknesses on the GFS make me wonder if a few snowflakes might mix in on Thursday morning … which would be yet another validation of the LLTI theory (“Lezak Leaving Town Index” for those unaware of the nomenclature :)).

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

How much rain predicted for today’s rain?

rickmckc
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rickmckc

Latest GFS and NAM both showing .75-1.1 for KCI area from late tonight through Monday, although GFS shows Monday with showers in AM followed by clearing and warmer in afternoon.

Hope that one is right as it is time for some golf!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got clipped by the east side of storm # 5 as it streams NE, and got a sprinkle of rain from 7 AM to 7:15 AM (between Manhattan & Marysville, KS), but no rain has fallen since then (as of 8:50 AM).
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-central-region/weather-radar?play=1