Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large area in preparation for this approaching storm system. It is being issued very early to get the awareness out there. Some areas in the watch will likely be dry through most of Friday.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Becoming sunny to partly cloudy. There is a 0% chance of any freezing rain!
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 0% chance of any freezing rain. It will stay dry!
  • Friday morning: Dry early, then a band of sleet of light freezing rain is possible by noon. Temperatures around 25°.
  • Friday afternoon: There is a chance of sleet of light freezing rain with very light accumulations possible.
  • Friday night: Some light freezing rain or sleet possible. Accumulations of under 1/10th of an inch possible.
  • Saturday: A chance of freezing rain. Accumulations of 1/10th of inch possible.
  • Saturday night-Sunday morning: Freezing rain increasing and accumulating. Temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees!  Accumulations of 0.1″ to 0.5″ expected. This will cause slick and hazardous conditions to untreated surfaces. Heading out of your neighborhoods to go to tailgating Sunday morning may be challenging. Temperatures 30° to 32°
  • Sunday afternoon:  Freezing rain changing to rain with temperatures rising to just above 32°
  • Sunday night-Monday: A band of heavier rain moves in with temperatures jumping to 50° before sunrise

The winter storm watch being issued this early brings awareness to the ice storm.  It will be dry in many areas until Friday night. Here are the advisories from the NWS as of this morning:

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One of the main points, aspects of the LRC is that every year is unique.  There are moments we have discussed this with you over the years, and now is one of those moments.  We are cycling through the 2016-2017 LRC and this pattern is one I have never seen before.  This next storm is caught within this pattern and it is just fascinating.  Just look at last nights 10 PM surface map:

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69 degrees at 10 pm in St.Louis?  70 in Tulsa!  And after a high of 63 in KC, it was down to 24 degrees. Yesterday was fun to track, now what is going to happen next?  As discussed in our weather time-line above it will be dry for a good 30 more hours at least, as of 7 AM this morning. Here is a graphic I showed last night:

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This graphic above shows our confidence level that there will be icing. Confidence is very high that we will have a .10″ to .50″ accumulation. Confidence goes way down on amounts more than 0.5″. That .5″ threshold will place areas on the edge of this becoming a major ice storm.  It will likely be the biggest ice storm in many years, but it is likely not going to be like the one in 2002.  We obviously still need to monitor this closely.

There will likely be a band of very heavy snow northwest of the upper level storm systems track. This will affect eastern Colorado and extreme northwest Kansas.   Kansas City has no chance of snow accumulations from this system and as you can see we are still 10″ below my forecast snowfall for the season:

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There is a lot to analyze and I will update this blog this evening.  Let’s see how the models come in this morning and we can continue our discussion in the comments section. The storm we are tracking is just now forming near the California coast this morning! We have a lot more time to track this storm. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary