How Much Ice This Weekend?

/How Much Ice This Weekend?

How Much Ice This Weekend?

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large area in preparation for this approaching storm system. It is being issued very early to get the awareness out there. Some areas in the watch will likely be dry through most of Friday.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Becoming sunny to partly cloudy. There is a 0% chance of any freezing rain!
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 0% chance of any freezing rain. It will stay dry!
  • Friday morning: Dry early, then a band of sleet of light freezing rain is possible by noon. Temperatures around 25°.
  • Friday afternoon: There is a chance of sleet of light freezing rain with very light accumulations possible.
  • Friday night: Some light freezing rain or sleet possible. Accumulations of under 1/10th of an inch possible.
  • Saturday: A chance of freezing rain. Accumulations of 1/10th of inch possible.
  • Saturday night-Sunday morning: Freezing rain increasing and accumulating. Temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees!  Accumulations of 0.1″ to 0.5″ expected. This will cause slick and hazardous conditions to untreated surfaces. Heading out of your neighborhoods to go to tailgating Sunday morning may be challenging. Temperatures 30° to 32°
  • Sunday afternoon:  Freezing rain changing to rain with temperatures rising to just above 32°
  • Sunday night-Monday: A band of heavier rain moves in with temperatures jumping to 50° before sunrise

The winter storm watch being issued this early brings awareness to the ice storm.  It will be dry in many areas until Friday night. Here are the advisories from the NWS as of this morning:

Screen Shot 2017-01-12 at 7.05.55 AM

One of the main points, aspects of the LRC is that every year is unique.  There are moments we have discussed this with you over the years, and now is one of those moments.  We are cycling through the 2016-2017 LRC and this pattern is one I have never seen before.  This next storm is caught within this pattern and it is just fascinating.  Just look at last nights 10 PM surface map:

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69 degrees at 10 pm in St.Louis?  70 in Tulsa!  And after a high of 63 in KC, it was down to 24 degrees. Yesterday was fun to track, now what is going to happen next?  As discussed in our weather time-line above it will be dry for a good 30 more hours at least, as of 7 AM this morning. Here is a graphic I showed last night:

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This graphic above shows our confidence level that there will be icing. Confidence is very high that we will have a .10″ to .50″ accumulation. Confidence goes way down on amounts more than 0.5″. That .5″ threshold will place areas on the edge of this becoming a major ice storm.  It will likely be the biggest ice storm in many years, but it is likely not going to be like the one in 2002.  We obviously still need to monitor this closely.

There will likely be a band of very heavy snow northwest of the upper level storm systems track. This will affect eastern Colorado and extreme northwest Kansas.   Kansas City has no chance of snow accumulations from this system and as you can see we are still 10″ below my forecast snowfall for the season:

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There is a lot to analyze and I will update this blog this evening.  Let’s see how the models come in this morning and we can continue our discussion in the comments section. The storm we are tracking is just now forming near the California coast this morning! We have a lot more time to track this storm. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-01-14T07:49:57+00:00 January 12th, 2017|General|297 Comments

297 Comments

  1. Fred Nolan January 12, 2017 at 1:33 am - Reply

    First.

  2. jeffinks January 12, 2017 at 2:08 am - Reply

    I hope this thing weakens or something happens. I im down in Wichita, Ks. They have us under a winter storm watch. Talking about they might have to issue a Ice Storm warning for us later.but still to early to say. Calling for .50- to 1 inch of ice.

  3. Dave R January 12, 2017 at 4:38 am - Reply

    I don’t want ice just some plain ole rain.

  4. Mike January 12, 2017 at 5:50 am - Reply

    Well the 00Z Euro is still showing .58″ to 1.05″ of ice.The heaviest band is on the Northwest side of KC.

  5. stl78 January 12, 2017 at 6:02 am - Reply

    Well I’m supposed to b traveling back to kc from Beaumont Texas Fri afternoon. Looks as though I should stay put. Damn I hate traveling for work!

    • LSMike(Cowboys) January 12, 2017 at 6:06 am - Reply

      Drive to Dallas and go to Cowboys game

  6. stl78 January 12, 2017 at 6:22 am - Reply

    Lol..I despise jerry jones

    • LSMike(Cowboys) January 12, 2017 at 6:29 am - Reply

      lol, you either hatem or love them. If you want a good laugh Google ‘the fake jerry jones’ a sports station in d/fw called the ticket has it every Monday morning after the game on Sunday. It sounds just like him and is really funny. Good luck and be safe getting home.

  7. stl78 January 12, 2017 at 6:35 am - Reply

    I will and thano u Mike

  8. Meag January 12, 2017 at 6:48 am - Reply

    Coming out of lurking to say NWS is calling for 0.25-0.75 in KC. Their forecast discussion says they favor the Euro and a colder solution.

  9. Tim January 12, 2017 at 6:59 am - Reply

    How likely will this impact the Friday PM commute in metro?

  10. Jason January 12, 2017 at 7:20 am - Reply

    Very light flurries in Lawrence. Very light

  11. DanT January 12, 2017 at 7:21 am - Reply

    Am I expecting too much out of the LRC. I keep trying to use the LRC to compare this storm to the storm that came through on the previous cycle. I guess maybe I need to not ask myself what did this storm give us last time with precipitation amounts and expect it to do the same this time? Are we to use the LRC as a macro forecasting tool and then the computer models (closer to the event) as a micro forecasting tool?

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 7:43 am - Reply

      DanT,

      Yes and no to your question. It really depends on the storm system. The broad answer is yes, however. The LRC definitely provides enough information by just “knowing” the pattern well to predict when a storm will be most likely in your area and when it will most likely be dry. As we get closer to an event the LRC can also help in where a storm system will track. You are correct in your assessment of using it as a macro forecasting tool for the larger picture, and we can use it to know when the computer models are right and when they are wrong. As you suggest, however, we still must rely on the other computer models as we get closer to the event for the specific forecast on amounts. In the future we will have an LRC model that we can use to get more specific, but until that model is developed your assessment is on target. It will still help tremendously to forecast when there will be an Arctic outbreak (in the first half of February), when there will be severe weather outbreaks, the timing of heat waves and more. We can get, and have gotten very specific and with good results!

      Gary

      • DanT January 12, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

        I will say that I have used the LRC to prepare and plan my half marathon and triathlon season since people like to sign up early. Last year the LRC suggested it would be cold around the middle of May for the KC triathlon. Turns out it was cold. Knowing this I signed for one in June when it was warmer.

  12. Waldo Weather January 12, 2017 at 7:32 am - Reply

    So basically, everyone will be getting ice. Depending on areas, some could see power outages. Also depending on when it warms up Sunday, more could see their power go out. But at least by Monday the temps will melt the ice away, which would still leave some without power, but at least it won’t still be freezing out so hopefully they would be able to fix the power outages faster without having to fight ice. I see traveling to the Chiefs game a huge nightmare. But that’s just my 2 cents. Happy Thursday! Looking forward to reading the blog today!

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 7:43 am - Reply

      It could be a problem. I am on Sportsradio 810 AM and I will be discussing this. Of all days!

      Gary

  13. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 7:44 am - Reply

    It’s 19 out. The models showed us only dipping to 24. #modelBiases

    • waldo weather January 12, 2017 at 8:26 am - Reply

      Totally agree!

  14. Urbanity January 12, 2017 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Gary, are things looking as grim as I think they are to the west of Salina? If the forecast is for 2+ inches of precip, and it’s below freezing, can we expect a devastating storm?

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 8:16 am - Reply

      Yes, it certainly appears this way. It would be nice if it were cold enough for snow, but central Kansas could really have a problem. Let’s see how the models come in today.

      Gary

  15. Adam January 12, 2017 at 8:20 am - Reply

    ‘It’s 19 out. The models showed us only dipping to 24. #modelBiases’

    ^ This

    • Tim January 12, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

      I’m having this same concern. I certainly hope this is not the case going into tomorrow afternoon…

  16. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

    The 06z GFS has us at 0.49″ of ice but only dropped us to 25 this morning. We got to 18. If you take the fact that it errored by 7 degrees and factor in that error, the GFS has us at or below freezing until forecast hour 90. The QPF at that point for the KC metro area is at 1.2 to 1.5″.

    The 00z Canadian GEM has us at 0.8 to 1.2″ of ice in the metro. It accurately hit this AM’s lows. Maybe had a cold bias of 1 degree.

    The 06z NAM model had us dipping to 22 this morning. It had a error of 4 degrees. The NAM keeps us at or below freezing through hour 84 with 0.8 to 1.2″ of liquid, but oddly enough, only 0.3 to 0.5″ of ice. I think that model is erroring out. It does have us peaking to 33 on Saturday – again – it had a 4 degree too warm error this morning.

  17. Eric January 12, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

    I am very much a weather noob, however I find it fascinating and love tracking it to the best of my ability. So my question may be dumb but I am just curious. So I know the storm is still far away and we have a lot of tracking to do. I see Gary has predicted it to possibly get up to 50 degrees Sunday into Monday. My question is, could the predicted 50 degrees be wrong and could it end up being colder i.e 32 degrees or lower? Or are temps usually pretty easy to predict?

    • waldo weather January 12, 2017 at 8:43 am - Reply

      Great question… just like f00dl3 was saying, the models have already been off with the temps. So why wouldn’t that be wrong also? Will it even get over 32 on sunday? If not, would cause MAJOR problems.

  18. Richard January 12, 2017 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Gary,
    Heard you on sports radio saying the heaviest will be Sat night-Sun morn. If freezing rain comes down heavy enough, it will wash away any road treatments, right ?

  19. MMike January 12, 2017 at 8:37 am - Reply

    Richard,

    Yes, most contractors, state, county, and city will likely be pre-treating today and tomorrow. All my trucks will be laying a base down starting tomorrow morning. This should help the first weaker wave of moisture from being too much of a problem. If the heavier stuff hits Saturday later, we will treat again. However, if the precip is too heavy, yes, it will be a problem with maintaining the salt application in place.

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 9:01 am - Reply

      Thanks Mike
      So it is not a waste to pre-treat for lighter events
      Is it a combo of salt sand ?
      I have heard of beet juice strange application

  20. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6ScTEIoK3tPbXRITENSVTd1WDA

    Data dump! 00 and 06z generated stuff from my GrADS experimentation

  21. Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

    The 12Z NAM certainly seems to support Gary’s thoughts on this storm. Not only was the freezing rain output pretty insignificant, the entire QPF for the period was much less than any of the other models have been depicting.

    Matt

    • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

      Actually it is more favorable for ice for KC – the main band is just starting to get going over central Kansas at hour 84. It doesn’t see the entire storm. The main band that would otherwise on previous runs went up over Nebraska would propagate over us – still giving us near an inch of ice.

      • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:59 am - Reply

        And has a 2-3 degree error.

      • Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 9:04 am - Reply

        How so? Surface temperatures are definitively above freezing after hour 75 on this run. Unless the temperature is going to drop again, which isn’t being suggested anywhere, the moisture that comes through after hour 84 wouldn’t produce ice at all. I’m not saying you’re assessment is wrong, but what am I missing here?

        • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

          Subtract 3 degrees from the forecast surface temperatures shown by the run as that at initiation it shows us at 19 and it was actually 16-17

          • Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

            That’s a fair point and I see where you’re coming from. It’s my belief though, that even if the 2-3 degree error that we see at the onset were to continue through the entire forecast period, any precipitation that were to come through after hour 84 would arrive with temperatures at or slightly above freezing based upon current projections.

            One thing I know for sure though, I don’t envy anyone who has to go on television and try to issue an accurate forecast for this particular storm. This is a tough one to say the least.

  22. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

    The real irony is even with a 7 degree error rate it will still be to warm for snow at the 850 mb level.

  23. Clint January 12, 2017 at 9:01 am - Reply

    Also if you look at the QPF of the 12z NAM while temps are below freezing it match the ice accumulation, this model is messed up on this run. But if you cross the QPF of the NAM with the temp profile of the Canadian we would all see .5 to 1in of ice with isolated higher amount (esp west). Everything is trending colder longer

    • Clint January 12, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

      Meant to say it doesn’t match oops!

  24. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Well if power goes out, it could mean no watching the Chiefs game! If internet doesn’t go down and I can figure out way to power the modem then I could watch it on laptop or listen to streaming radio. I live in an apartment so no generator! Maybe there is something at electronic store where the item runs on batteries and you can plug in the modem? Any ideas guys?

    • Meag January 12, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

      You could get a UPS (uninterruptable power supply). Not sure how long of a runtime a small one would have

      • Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 9:31 am - Reply

        Whats that? Never heard of that. I have small portable charger for my cell phone/laptop which I charged up last night.

      • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

        I got one for my desktop gaming/programming rig. APC UPC XS1300. Provides about 45 minutes idle power, 25 minutes under load. Will not do if we lose power for days.

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply

      I have a small “old school” battery operated transistor radio. Bought a few yrs ago at Walgreen for 10 bucks. Got it to take into our safe shelter ( interior closet ) during tornado warnings. Will use that to listen to the game if power goes out.

      • Richard January 12, 2017 at 9:34 am - Reply

        Actually used to hve a bettery operated t.v. during power outages until analog went extinct.
        Have not looked to see if there are battery operated t.v.s since then

  25. Austin Braddock January 12, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

    If we get 1. -1.5 inches of ice there will be no football game on Sunday. It will be Monday.

    • Jeff January 12, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

      Really doubt that’s the case. Barring power outages at the stadium, the game will be played. The NFL has played games in a lot worse.

    • Clint January 12, 2017 at 10:04 am - Reply

      NO it will be Sunday no matter what. NFL never postpones

      • MMike January 12, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

        Clint,

        If they have a stadium full of ice, a hazard to 80,000 fans…you bet they will delay that game or move it to Monday. I hope they do as an ice storm will disrupt the mood of the crowd.

        This could be disastrous for the Chiefs if fans have a tough time making there and the conditions are uncomfortable, the game will become a neutral one and the home field advantage is gone.

        • Jeff January 12, 2017 at 10:45 am - Reply

          Respectfully disagree. The NFL would play in front of an empty stadium before it cancels. The bucks are in the TV revenue. Short of a cataclysmic storm, which this isn’t, they’ll play. They’ve played in much much worse than this will be. Like I said earlier, short of a power outage, the game will go on.

          • MMike January 12, 2017 at 11:14 am - Reply

            Jeff,

            Timing of the ice will be key, if Arrowhead officials have little time to get the ice off the seats, the railings, the all important stairs, they won’t risk falling ice and slick steps to get a game started on time. How much ice will be key…

          • Gary January 12, 2017 at 11:36 am - Reply

            Everyone will be at the game, it will be incredible. Hopefully it is just drizzling and 33 by kickoff, which is what the models are hinting at.

            The pressure is on ME!

            Gary

      • MIke January 12, 2017 at 10:43 am - Reply

        Clint

        That isn’t necessary true. The NFL has canceled games and changed the location of a game.

        • Jeff January 12, 2017 at 10:47 am - Reply

          True, a hurricane with days of advance warning. Never a playoff game or a cold weather/winter weather game on short notice. This simply isn’t going to be bad enough to warrant.

          • Jeff January 12, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

            Forgot about the Buffalo-Jets game a couple years ago when the there was 5 feet of snow in Buffalo and the game was moved to Detroit. So yes, possible in extreme weather. This won’t qualify.

          • ClassyCat January 12, 2017 at 11:08 am - Reply

            Totally agree with Jeff. Short of power supply’s exploding at Arrowhead and starting a fire, there is no way this gets cancelled.

        • Clint January 12, 2017 at 11:29 am - Reply

          I’m with you I wish they would but I don’t think they will.

          • Jeff January 12, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

            I’ve been to many many weather games at Arrowhead since 1972 when it opened. My seats have been packed in ice, the steps have been ice and snow covered and the game went on as scheduled, much worse than this will be. This is the NFL, barring cataclysmic type weather, the show goes on, TV $$$ drives the engine, not the fans comfort. You go out and deal with it, been doing it with the Chiefs since 1968.

          • MMike January 12, 2017 at 1:27 pm - Reply

            Jeff,

            Oh I know, but, back then many didn’t sue as much as they do now. Liability is at a much higher stake nowadays. I’m in business for myself, it seems like we’re getting sued every other day. I know it’s very unlikely they will cancel or move the game, I was just hoping they would as the more sensitive fans will be hanging out upstairs under cover opposed to being part of the needed noise. This happened in the Titans game, it wasn’t much of a home field advantage that day as the crowd was totally out of it. I know that was a regular season game and this is much bigger. I’ll be there regardless, it’s go time!!

            Get there fans….let’s do this!

  26. Dale January 12, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply

    what are the chances the cold front stalls south of us or the warmer air fails to materialize Monday? It seems with ice on the ground all the way to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border it would be an impediment to warming up to the lower 40s Monday.

    • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

      I think today’s Arctic air is a lot stronger than they thought. Yesterday I saw today’s forecast high from Gary was 38. Looks the 7 day now shows us only hitting 30 today.

  27. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

    The GFS is showing parts of the Texas Panhandle about 20 degrees warmer than it actually is right now.

  28. Dan M. January 12, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

    Is there a model that everybody is favoring right now? NAM??? GFS is much warmer then everything else. NWS seem to favor colder Euro. Gary can you do a breakdown today of each model and your thoughts in comparison? Living in Topeka and needing to travel to Lawrence on Saturday and back that afternoon, is there any difference here vs. KC? Usually not due to the 30-60 mile difference.

  29. Austin Braddock January 12, 2017 at 9:52 am - Reply

    Right now the models are off by 3-7 degrees in cold air, in Texas they are off 20 degrees. Forecasting this ice is like walking on thin ice on a pond. Be steady and wait.

  30. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Yeah the 12z GFS should be thrown out. Wow. 20-25 degree error. Terrible.

  31. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

    GFS has over 1″ of freezing rain for KC, but it’s also hasn’t done the best job of initializing temperatures.

  32. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 9:58 am - Reply

    Hasn’t the GFS had a wet bias this winter?

  33. Austin Braddock January 12, 2017 at 9:58 am - Reply

    Is the 12z GFS and GFS models two different ones or the same one different name

  34. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:03 am - Reply

    Considering the 20 degree error in the GFS you could almost say it would be more accurate if it drew the deformation band 150 miles further south – instead of over western Kansas into central Nebraska – from southwestern Kansas over us to northern Missouri.

    • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:04 am - Reply

      This is a mess.

    • waldo weather January 12, 2017 at 10:22 am - Reply

      I totally agree with you. I really think these models are down playing this cold air as we have already seen.

  35. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:05 am - Reply

    Yes – the GFS has had a wet bias. Look back at the previous runs – when they had more stableness earlier today. NAM and Euro showed us with 0.8 to 1.2″ of freezing rain, considering error, and GFS showed us with 1.2 to 1.5″

  36. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Consider this – GFS shows us at 46 degrees Monday morning. GFS initiated with a 20 degree error over the Texas panhandle. If the GFS is 20 degrees off now… it could easily still end up being freezing Monday morning. 2.2″ of moisture. But also, that 2.2″ of moisture is with the 20 degree bias… so the precip amounts could easily be way off too.

    Throw these runs away and wait for the 00z runs. Those will probably be the last useful ones.

  37. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:16 am - Reply

    What if we don’t even hit 25 today? This Arctic Air is still seeping in with northerly winds.

    • Austin Braddock January 12, 2017 at 10:20 am - Reply

      We may get 10 inches of snow than.

  38. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 10:20 am - Reply

    I don’t think the errors can be applied so linearly like that. Rather, what effect would a stronger push of cold air have on this setup? Probably a later start to precipitation, with lesser amounts. Similar to what the NAM is showing.

    • Gary H January 12, 2017 at 12:11 pm - Reply

      May convert some of the freezing rain precip type to sleet since the cold layer at the surface would be thicker.

  39. Tim January 12, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

    I am just in wonderment right now over how we are this close to the event, and that the models still do not have a decent grab on the surface temperatures through the weekend. With that said, if the cold air/front stays further south as could be extrapolated by the temp bias, wouldn’t that also mean that the bulk of the heavier precip would stay further south as well?

  40. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

    The Canadian is the only 12z model that has accurately depicted the subzero temperatures across Nebraska this morning, but its positioning of the front is only slightly better than the GFS.

  41. Big Papa POOF January 12, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    SAY IT WITH ME, FOLKS

    POOF POOF POOF

  42. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

    12z Canadian sticks to it’s guns of about an inch of ice in KC.

    • Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 10:46 am - Reply

      Indeed it does. Our friends in central Kansas would really like to see this model be wrong! Pushing 3″ in some spots! Yikes.

  43. Austin Braddock January 12, 2017 at 10:50 am - Reply

    Link please

  44. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Need upcoming sounding data for arctic air readings for models to get better handle on it. Whats odd is the 12z NAM shows both surface and 925mb layer below freezing until 15z Sunday so this may explain low total ice of 0.08 inches. GFS has 925mb layer warmer so more ice. This will be key in my opinion, what happens in that layer.

    I’m hoping for low ice, but planning for worst case scenario. Better to be prepared than caught with pants down 😉

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 11:35 am - Reply

      We are upping our totals to .25″ to .75″, but hoping for less. The temperatures will be critical. It’s amazing the difference between 32.5 degrees and 31.5 degrees can be, and it may literally come down to this in many areas. If it is 33 and raining it is just rain, if it’s 29 and raining, then horrible ice storm potential. We know it will warm up Sunday afternoon and night, but what will happen before that happens?

      Gary

  45. Joshua January 12, 2017 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Rockdoc,

    So is the 12z NAM calling for more sleet and snow because of the cold layers?

  46. Tim January 12, 2017 at 11:12 am - Reply

    That is interesting with the 12z NAM looking at the composite reflectivity with precip type. It appears it shows mainly sleet as our precip type until sometime Saturday late afternoon.

  47. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 11:13 am - Reply

    What if we dip into the single digits tomorrow morning? The Arctic air is shallow but extends pretty far north…

    • Tim January 12, 2017 at 11:17 am - Reply

      I sure hope not! LOL!

    • Tim January 12, 2017 at 11:18 am - Reply

      It seems like a possibility considering we are still in the lower 20s.. are we even going to reach 30?

  48. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 11:22 am - Reply

    NAM does not have total sleet reading. However, in scrolling through what type of precipitation there will be Saturday – Sunday no sleet.

    Also as previously indicated, lower total QPF by 15z Sunday, 0.3 inches. Other models show 0.7 inches for GFS and 0.4 inches for Canadian at 12z.

    I think the key will be the 925mb layer temps, and if it stays cooler then maybe not as much ice. This layer is ~2500 feet up so if the surface to 2500 + feet up is below freezing then we may luck out. Gary or someone with more knowledge may be able to help out here.

  49. Tim January 12, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

    Interesting that the furry channel has a high of 27 today with a low of 13 tomorrow.

  50. Jason January 12, 2017 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Sounds like it’s going to be a mess of a weekend. May have to listen to the game on my phone or battery powered radio. First home playoff game in forever and we quite possibly won’t be able to watch it. Such is life. Stay safe everyone

  51. Joshua January 12, 2017 at 11:40 am - Reply

    My question is if it stays colder than expected, will we see sleet/snow and/or will the colder air result in lower QPF?

    • ClassyCat January 12, 2017 at 12:22 pm - Reply

      Joshua, the chance for snow is very low on this storm no matter how cold it gets at the surface. The reason is the air up above us is much warmer, well above freezing. There isn’t much chance of snow unless that warm air way above us erodes and is colder. The surface temperatures are not the issue on snow with this storm.

      • Joshua January 12, 2017 at 12:33 pm - Reply

        Thanks Classy. So I take it the colder the surface temps go will not have any impact on our precip type or amounts.

        • ClassyCat January 12, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

          That’s pretty much true. It all depends on how it forms up above us and whether it changes and is snow/sleet/rain or ice pellets when it hits at the surface. That’s why it’s entirely possible to have a huge snowstorm at 28 degrees, but have an ice storm at 19 degrees. Either one is supportive of snow at the surface, but it’s the air above that dictates how it starts/transitions if it does/finishes.

  52. Richard January 12, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    Gary
    Just heard a bit of Gerard on kshb at 11. Did he say first round will start by lunchtime tomorrow ? I thought it was not going to start until late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening,

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

      Go read my time line on the blog.

      Gary

  53. Rod January 12, 2017 at 11:54 am - Reply

    NWS office in St. Louis is forecasting .50″ to .75″ of an inch of freezing rain in my area just south of Columbia near Ashland. Could be a serious ice storm for the Columbia/Jeff city area if these amounts verify.

  54. Miss Jess January 12, 2017 at 11:56 am - Reply

    I work at a bank inside a Price Chopper until 6 PM on Saturday. They normally do not let us leave early when there are snow storms, but I’m hoping if ice is involved that they take our safety into consideration. How much ice is supposed to fall Saturday afternoon to make travel dangerous?

  55. Heat Miser January 12, 2017 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    I heard KC just got upgraded to a WSW

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 12:05 pm - Reply

      Warning ?

      • Gary January 12, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

        I am certain it will end up being an Ice Storm Warning eventually. It is still likely dry through at least 10 AM tomorrow with the main part of the storm coming in late Saturday night.

        This is a tough forecast.

        Gary

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      We were already under a watch as of early this morning.
      Heat Miser do you see a winter storm warning ?

      • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

        Yes, warning. I haven’t seen it yet, but someone at work said they got an alert for KC on their phone

        • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 12:28 pm - Reply

          I still don’t see it and this lady can be a little bit flakey…so mabye she read it wrong?

  56. Mr. Pete January 12, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

    When does the nws anticipate issuing a ice storm warning?

  57. supercell January 12, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    NFL may move Chiefs game to 7:30 PM start to avoid worst of ice storm. Snow/rain NFL will play through, but ice is a different beast. If it’s too dangerous for fans to arrive to the stadium then NFL will move start time. Look for a decision on game time by late Saturday.

  58. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Here is NWS KC discussion from earlier today. Good discussion on different models and how the storm may play out.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1

  59. APLS January 12, 2017 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    12Z Euro coming in colder but lighter on QPF.

    Still around .50-.75 of ice.

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 12:56 pm - Reply

      Exactly! Be careful bloggers. The Euro has a slower solution that has a lot less than it has had and it’s warmer. Remember, it’s only
      Thursday.

      On my way in to work. I have gotten calls from various sources with so much hype. This is not easy. There are worst case scenarios, and these have been based on this same Euro model that has suddenly come in with less ice. I will do my usual analysis. I will be doing a Facebook live around 9 PM tonight.

      Gary

  60. Kai January 12, 2017 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    Car insurance companies are going to HATE this storm during, and when all is said and done.

  61. Snow Miser January 12, 2017 at 12:58 pm - Reply

    Is there the remotest chance the upper level air could come in colder than expected and we get snow instead of ice? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.

    • RickMcKC January 12, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

      There’s always a chance but to quote your question, it’s the remotest. No model in the last five days has had snow within 200 miles of KC area. That would be a shift of such dramatic proportions that they would be wise to destroy all the computers running the models!

    • Snow Miser January 12, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

      I will try to use my magic Snow Miser powers to make the upper air colder.

      But don’t get angry at me if it doesn’t work. Heat Miser can be a pain to deal with sometimes. :-\

  62. Choppy January 12, 2017 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    Autobody guys are gonna be cuttin a fat hog.

  63. Weatherfreaker January 12, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    Can someone explain in more detail what the new Euro is looking like exactly? New ice totals? How much less than what?

  64. Weatherby Tom January 12, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Co workers know nothing about the weather, do not listen to them, this blog is where we get the “real” weather news.

    • Heat Miser January 12, 2017 at 1:24 pm - Reply

      She said channel 5 prematurely released a Winter Storm Warning alert. You don’t have to know a thing about the weather to be able to read “Winter Storm Warning” in big fat letters on your phone.

  65. APLS January 12, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    My mistake. Yes, the Euro is warmer. Brings the freezing line throug the metro around 0Z Sunday night.

    Still much slower than the GFS.

    • RickMcKC January 12, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

      True … but it is still showing .68 of precip (ice) by that point, with another .4 or so of rain falling thereafter with temps >32.

      My uneducated hobbyist guess (to quote Bill in Lawrence) is that there will be lots of ice on trees, etc but with temps so close to freezing and salt/treatment still on the roads, travel will not be as difficult as some are imagining.

  66. Snowflake January 12, 2017 at 1:21 pm - Reply

    I’m starting to wonder when Gary will up his forecast and back down from considering this a light icing event…seems to have Major written all over it, no?

    • Heat Miser January 12, 2017 at 1:23 pm - Reply

      He already has upped it to .25 to .75 inches.

  67. APLS January 12, 2017 at 1:22 pm - Reply

    I would tend to agree Rick. Just praying that getting to Arrowhead on Sunday morning isn’t a total nightmare.

    I just envision it not being pretty.

  68. LSMike(Cowboys) January 12, 2017 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    There is no difference in a .50 or a 1.00 of ice when it comes to dangerous road conditions. You cannot drive on ice period…………………………….IMO the hype is needed for an ice storm, most people like Weatherby Tom said have no clue till it happens.

  69. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    The euro has less than previous runs but still have .5-.75 of ice which would cause serious problems. It seems to be coming down slightly while other models are coming up leading me to believe they may finally be coming together for a solution. Probably everyone with at least .25 some up to 1 inch and a widespread .5-.75. That would still cause many power and tree problems just not quite the same destruction as in 2002.

  70. Plowboy87 January 12, 2017 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    On the gfs model, snow depth chart shows 3″ at 72hr, Is that sleet?

  71. ndgogrl74 January 12, 2017 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    Sorry for the tangent – but what how does the full moon affect the weather in a situation like this – or does it?

  72. COLMo_Gio January 12, 2017 at 1:38 pm - Reply

    NWS just upgraded counties on the extreme southern boarder of the EAX area to a Ice Storm Warning.

  73. Richard January 12, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Gary
    You put the same post on the kshb blog and it says we can continue our discussion in the comments section
    But the comments section is closed there. Will it open ?

  74. Dave January 12, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    There’s going to be so much flip flopping in the next 24 hours…from a minor ice storm to a major ice storm to a minor ice storm… each flip and flop based on every model run.

    Soon, it won’t matter…because we will need to just look out the window.

    Hate to be a school superintendent and have to make a decision about tomorrow afternoon…they don’t want a repeat of December 17th, when kids were at school until 9:00 or 10:00 PM. In fact, Columbia has already closed…

    • Melanie January 12, 2017 at 2:17 pm - Reply

      The Shawnee Mission School district already planned for a no school day tomorrow. Thankful my kids won’t have to walk or ride the bus in the freezing rain.

    • Heat Miser January 12, 2017 at 2:17 pm - Reply

      If there is any doubt they will send them home early

  75. Kurt January 12, 2017 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    If the roads are adequately treated, and the rain isn’t heavy enough will the treatment keep the main interstates clear? I see the icy streets being those in your neighborhood, side streets, side walks and county blacktop roads. Also bridges and overpasses. It’s an event that calls for cautious driving. As we have temps supposed to be warming during the event, it’s not like we are getting an inch of ice on frozen ground and then temps continue to drop with no melting.

    Yes, I think it will be uncomfortable to be out and about. Most likely some scattered to perhaps pockets on numerous power outages. However, like Gary mentioned, only about 1/3 of the total QPF actually builds up as ice. Does anyone really think that we would be 6 to 9 inches of QPF that forms into 2 to 3 inches of ice?

    I do think that any ice is bad, been there done that on December 16th, but is being prepared and cautious if you want to go out. Otherwise, stay inside and wait it out.

    I think up here it won’t be as significant (in St. Joseph), maybe 1/4 to 4/10 of an inch of ice. Yes, it will freeze on my porch and sidewalk and the driveway. But it will thaw. It’s nothing compared to the inch of ice we had in December 2007 that put 50,000 customers in northwest Missouri without power for days. That event shut down St. Joseph for a couple days.

    The worst ice storm I experienced was 1994 when we had pouring rain that froze to power lines and trees, again well over an inch of ice. Fortunately the ground wasn’t frozen, so it was only on trees, fences, power lines etc. so roads were ok if you didn’t have tree debris blocking the road.

    • ClassyCat January 12, 2017 at 2:16 pm - Reply

      Kurt, I may not be remembering correctly, but I think Gary said that at the forecasted temperatures, about 1/3 of QPF builds up. Certainly, in 2002, there were 203 inches of ice, but we did not get 6-9 inches of QPF. It was much colder then than it will be with this storm. So, I think your statement holds true for this storm because of the temps, but I don’t think it’s a general 1/3 builds up. It depends on temps and Gary was referencing this storm……I think. I could be wrong.

      • ClassyCat January 12, 2017 at 2:16 pm - Reply

        2-3 inches of ice.

  76. ginapuff January 12, 2017 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    They just upgraded southern Missouri to an ice storm warning. When would they issue it for the metro? Overnight shift at NWS?

    • Clint January 12, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

      most likely tonight or tomorrow

      • ginapuff January 12, 2017 at 2:25 pm - Reply

        They just issued it for the metro. I was surprised that it was this early!

      • ginapuff January 12, 2017 at 2:26 pm - Reply

        Just issued it for the metro. I was surprised that it was this early!

  77. Randy Keller January 12, 2017 at 2:08 pm - Reply

    20 here now, wind chill 8 low tonight 8 southern nebraska.

    this has a dry air pocket written all over it for our area.

    Boomer Sooner

  78. Phillip January 12, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    So much moisture for this storm to work with. Don’t have to worry about the precip falling. Worrying about the surface temps is what we’ll be doing.

  79. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 2:21 pm - Reply

    I always wonder why do Missouri schools close with so much less than Kansas schools? I noticed with the snow here last week almost all Missouri schools cancelled and less than 5 schools in Kansas did. This has always intrigued me. Here in Lawrence I have noticed it takes a lot for schools to close and they haven’t had a snow day in 3 years here.

    • Max January 12, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

      Gary,
      How about a time-lapse graphic showing when travel gets bad?

    • Max January 12, 2017 at 4:16 pm - Reply

      Calling off school depends on how many students walk as well as the formulas the states use to provide school funding among other things.

  80. Phillip January 12, 2017 at 2:25 pm - Reply

    Ice storm warning.

  81. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    The new NAM is coming in less wet again

  82. waldo weather January 12, 2017 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    Well Weather 2020 was down for awhile… The Ice Storm Warning is finally out!

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 4:34 pm - Reply

      Website is bad when busy. It was bad yesterday too.
      They need to redo it.

    • Richard January 12, 2017 at 4:35 pm - Reply

      Website is bad when busy. It was bad yesterday too.
      They need to redo it. My comments are not loading either

  83. Tim January 12, 2017 at 4:08 pm - Reply

    ..and the 18Z GFS came in less wet..

  84. K-stater January 12, 2017 at 4:26 pm - Reply

    The nam model seems like it is off to me. It has much lower totals than the other models and has not handled this system well at all in my opinion. I’m not sure i trust any model in this storm. GFS also seems off to me and i am usually skeptical of the euro and Canadian model. I think the canadian has handled this the best but not sure if i fully trust it. We will have to wait and see.

  85. Fred Nolan January 12, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    Grocery store here in OP packed wall to wall. People with 10 cases of water. Very little bread and milk left.
    Hopefully power outages if any are very minimal.

  86. Richard January 12, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    Gary
    This website is bunk getting it to load. Been trying for 10 min. to get here, it never did this before with the other format. What good is it if we can’t get access when there are a lot of comments.
    I was just going to comment that Nick Bender channel 9 did a facebook live as soon as the ice storm warning was issued, (I dont go to their facebook. It was posted by a friend)
    was hoping you would do one. So 9a.m. ? Thought tomorrow was going to be dry until night time. That us what you said on sports radio this morning

  87. COLMo_Gio January 12, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    The NAM and the GFS haven’t handled this storm at all. Both have been abysmal at getting a hold of any of the elements surrounding it. At this point, I wouldn’t trust them at all, and from what I’m able to read into the discussions at the NWS, they aren’t buying into them either.

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 4:36 pm - Reply

      The Euro backed off big time with the GFS and NAM models. We have a lot more time to track this system. I know one thing for certain. It will be dry through 9 AM tomorrow morning at least.

      Another tough forecast for KC.

      Gary

      • COLMo_Gio January 12, 2017 at 4:47 pm - Reply

        Link to the latest Euro?

        • RickMcKC January 12, 2017 at 5:44 pm - Reply

          Eurowx.com … but it is a pay site. Cost is $9.95/mo and well worth it during the winter months. I activate my subscription in December and cancel it in March.

  88. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    18z GFS is more wet but warmer, I think the NAM is onto something with a cutoff and narrower area of precip, but way too far south. I think the Canadian GEM is handling this best and the Euro and Canadian are the only 2 models somewhat in agreement.

    But, again, trends. Didn’t the GFS have a north and west bias, and then the NAM came in further south, and in the end the track was a blend of the two.

  89. SnowDays January 12, 2017 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    I can lose power, tv, and not leave my house for 3 days, but this blog being down for 30 minutes was terrifying!

    • Tim January 12, 2017 at 4:50 pm - Reply

      Exactly.. my connection to the real weather vanished when I needed it most! LOL

  90. Richard January 12, 2017 at 4:41 pm - Reply

    Bunk
    Website freezing not loading

  91. Gary H January 12, 2017 at 4:51 pm - Reply

    The balloons are flying now. San Diego NWS will sample the actual storm over CA. The 00Z runs should be more accurate than the 18Z runs were.

  92. APLS January 12, 2017 at 4:51 pm - Reply

    Yep. Models have backed way off on ice and QPF amounts today.

    Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend towards lesser amounts.

  93. Mr. Pete January 12, 2017 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    Test

  94. Kurt January 12, 2017 at 5:06 pm - Reply

    They cancelled schools in St. Joseph for Friday. I know that they don’t want another repeat of December 16th. Just seems really premature, but better to error on the side of caution.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:05 pm - Reply

      I think we all know public schools play it at times embarrassingly safe when it comes to winter weather. It’s almost like they just want a day off sometimes. LoL

  95. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 5:08 pm - Reply

    Topeka NWS was mentioning that the sharp precipitation cutoff is inconsistent with the amount of moisture present and similar setups from the past. But if the 00z models follow suite we’re going to be missing out on one of our few good chances for moisture.

  96. Baseball Mike January 12, 2017 at 5:21 pm - Reply

    Good evening Gary-yes this set-up is difficult to forecast but it is interesting what Skylar is saying about what our NWS is saying and one of our meteorologists here in Topeka is sort of down playing and showing the moisture more scattered! Our other meteorologist is hyping up and basically demonstrating a fear factor- I know they are both sharing their opinions but it is always interesting to see how different they are. Just hope it isn’t as bad for everyone . Michael/Topeka/Berryton

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 5:42 pm - Reply

      Well, you know where I am on all of this. With social media, over hype by taking worst case scenarios and making them as if it is going to happen, it is driving me a bit crazy. I am trying to help my team here at KSHB be smart, but when MODOT comes out and basically tells everyone to stay home on a night that its dry, well you get what I am saying.

      Many of you know that I will do my best to explain what I think will happen. I still think that the icing will be in the ,10″ to .50″ range, more likely .25″ near KC.

      It’s still two full days away.

      GAry

      • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:01 pm - Reply

        Gary, you said earlier today you were upping your forecast to .25-.75 inches…are changing it again back down?

      • Kat January 12, 2017 at 6:28 pm - Reply

        I think you nailed it Gary! NWS can’t go wrong with over-hype “Prepare for the worst” then “Well at least nobody suffered” because weather really is so unpredictable. At least the grocers will benefit and who knows how many generators will finally leave the shelves. I bought a snow blower 2 years ago and still in the box…best snow insurance investment ever! LOL

    • Dan M. January 12, 2017 at 7:35 pm - Reply

      Mike – I’m in Topeka and will take a guess that’s 13 is going with doom and gloom while 27 is downplaying it. Correct???

  97. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 5:30 pm - Reply

    12z runs were poop too…

  98. Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:04 pm - Reply

    NWS is actually saying .5 to 1.00 inches of ice in the Warning issued for Lawrence, and I think .25-.75 for the KC Warning area? Gary, are you saying the NWS is also over-hyping this….I didn’t think the NWS did that?

  99. Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:07 pm - Reply

    …also, the NWS says sporatic power outages as opposed to widespread outages…mabye partly because of lack of wind? So they arent overhyping that

  100. APLS January 12, 2017 at 6:08 pm - Reply

    Yes, he obviously didn’t stick to that updated forecast, because just as he was about to, the 12Z model suite came in line with his previous expectations.

    Adam

  101. WeathermanKumke January 12, 2017 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    Sup Gary,

    Going with an Inch for the SW Side of the Metro here in the Big O-Town. Hope all is well

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 6:24 pm - Reply

      Zach, do you realize how much an inch of ice is? That is a ridiculous amount. Very rare. It would take around 3″ of rain for that to happen.

      Gary

  102. APLS January 12, 2017 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    Heat,

    Did you red their afternoon AFD?? This is their first paragraph.

    “A dangerous and potentially crippling ice storm is expected this
    weekend as several rounds of prolonged freezing rain is expected.
    Travel will be extremely dangerous and roads may become impassable
    and power outages may result from ice accumulating on trees and
    powerlines. Precautions should be taken to be prepared if power is
    lost or if you are traveling and your car becomes disabled.”

    Sounds pretty “hype-ish” to me…

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:37 pm - Reply

      Hype…or is that what they think will happen. NWS isn’t trying to maximize any advertising dollars like TWC or Accuweather or local news channels might do, they are just trying to be as accurate as possible

  103. APLS January 12, 2017 at 6:24 pm - Reply

    Gary just showed his in-house model on the 6:00 newscast showing only .20 inches of ice, just as the NWS said this will be a “crippling” storm.

    Somebody is going to have egg on their face come Sunday..

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      .2 to .3″ of ice is still a lot! Let’s see what the new models show.

      Gary

  104. COLMo_Gio January 12, 2017 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    I understand Gary’s desire to not “over hype” the situation. However, I don’t think the latest models are a accurate representation of what we’re going to actually see. The abundance of moisture and the history of past similar storms outweigh them. I read on another blog that one possible cause for the deviation on the latest models (GFS & NAM) could be how terribly they handled the temps for today. As far as the other models, I guess we will just have to see.

  105. Choppy January 12, 2017 at 6:33 pm - Reply

    Lauria is in line with Gary so what is the NWS looking at that’s so extremely different? Signs on the highway are telling people to stay home. I don’t get it.

  106. Phillip January 12, 2017 at 6:35 pm - Reply

    It would not take 3″ of rain to get 1″ of ice. Just sayin’. You’ve been down playing this “event” from the get go. Which forecast are you going to go with? The one from yesterday? Or the updated one today? Or are you going back to just .25″-.50? I get that it’s hard to forecast weather, but stick to a forecast. It’s been changed so many times in the last 2 days. Go with your gut Gary. Based on what I’ve read the past two days from you, you should have stuck to the initial .25-.50

    • Gary January 12, 2017 at 6:41 pm - Reply

      Still going with .10″ to .50″! We did put the higher end to .75″, but confidence is too low at that extreme, so I am in the original range. I think it will verify. That is still an ice storm.

      Gary

      • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:59 pm - Reply

        True, but .1 is marginal and .5 is much more significant…isn’t that a really large range to predict…will you narrow that down as it gets closer?

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

      I think Gary knows, due to getting burned in the past, that to say “a major winter storm will impact the area and then it’s not that bad” is worse than saying “it probably wont be too bad, but there is a chance it could be worse”. I think weather guys get hit harder when the former happens. Just a few hrs ago Gary up his ice total forecast and said just a few degree difference can mean the difference between rain and a horrible ice storm, and that this is a tough call. Hmmm…mabye best to say you just don’t know? Hope for the best but prepare for the worst as either is possible?

  107. Terry January 12, 2017 at 6:41 pm - Reply

    Who is going to Right and Who is going to be wrong ? Who will win the jackpot of being right an Win ?

  108. Richard January 12, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

    .20 inches is still a concern. You can’t drive on ice no matter what.
    As far as schools closing, better safe than sorry.
    Afternoon commute would be better without school traffic. Teachers, students. Especially students that don’t know how to druve on ice, since this has not happened in a few years. There are a whole lot that have no idea how to navigate ice. Which as I already said you cannot drive on ice. And neighborhood untreated streets will be slick even at .20 inch of ice.

  109. Skylar January 12, 2017 at 6:47 pm - Reply

    I’ve been trying to research the freezing rain to liquid ratios, and I have found absolutely nothing in regards to this. But we definitely did not receive 6-9″ of moisture from the system in 2002.

    • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 7:06 pm - Reply

      Very true. Also consider elevated surfaces will have ice stick much easier than your driveway – (trees, power lines)… but at the same time since it’s been cold and it may drop to the teens, this stuff may freeze pretty easy on roads creating an ice rink out there.

      • Richard January 12, 2017 at 7:20 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        Ice does not form on lines and tree branches as easily ir as fast as solid flat surfaces. The rounded surface of lines, branches allows for dripping, runoff. But solid, cold surfaces accumulate easier,

        • Richard January 12, 2017 at 7:22 pm - Reply

          Sorry meant to put a ? at the end of that. It was a question

  110. Dave R January 12, 2017 at 6:52 pm - Reply

    Gary got burnt last year and has been cautious since then.

  111. Lsmike January 12, 2017 at 6:56 pm - Reply

    Modalities

  112. Mr. Pete January 12, 2017 at 6:57 pm - Reply

    I’m confused. Is this a freezing rain storm or a ice storm? Freezing rain sticks to everything but ice pellets just bounce off everything and pile up on the ground. I think ice and freezing rain should be differentiated

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 7:03 pm - Reply

      ice pellets are sleet. We are talking about freezing rain…which is what the ice storm warning is about

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      I think sleet and or snow fall under a WSW or a WWA, whereas an Ice storm warning means freezing rain coats everything in ice

  113. Michael Casteel January 12, 2017 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    No matter what the weather brings I just came out of Sams Club and they said it’s been busier today than it was at Christmas time LOL good for the retail stores I guess stay safe everybody over the weekend
    Michael

  114. APLS January 12, 2017 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    NWS in Kansas City just did a live periscope and talked about scaling back their forecasted ice amounts.

    • Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 7:23 pm - Reply

      I wonder what changed their mind in the past 3 hours. Seems a little jumpy to me.

      • COLMo_Gio January 12, 2017 at 7:26 pm - Reply

        Everyone is jumpy because no one wants to be wrong. It’s actually hilarious. Gary downplayed it, then up played it, and is downplaying it. The NWS was meh about it, up played it, and is now thinking about downplaying it. Guarantee later tonight/tomorrow if the models go back to high ice amounts everyone ups their totals and goes back to up playing. Meteorology = most overpaid glorified guessers. However, their job is a valuable one…when its right lol

    • Randy Keller January 12, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

      Gary > NWS

      GO SOONERS

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

      Nothing like an ice storm to demonstrate our limits in forecasting abilities.

  115. Jason January 12, 2017 at 7:20 pm - Reply

    There will be ice. It may be on lower side, it may be in higher side. Being exact is impossible. He can’t come out and say there will be .25″-.32″ of ice. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best is my motto. Thanks for all the updates Gary. Great work as usual.

    My daughter goes to college west of St. Joe. They sent out an emergency alert telling kids to go home tonight if they can since there is no school Monday. Generator on campus at the req center for those that can’t if power goes out.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 8:01 pm - Reply

      Of course not Jason. But during the course of today Gary’ total range has been .1 to .75…would like a little more clarification than that, that’s all.

      • Jason January 12, 2017 at 9:01 pm - Reply

        Fair enough. Always enjoy your posts.

  116. Dave R January 12, 2017 at 7:26 pm - Reply

    Last Ice Storm Warning was in 2008. I’m glad to get some exciting weather again. The dusting snowstorms bore me.

  117. Kristi January 12, 2017 at 7:28 pm - Reply

    Where is the storm gonna track how far can it dig the farther north it goes the less we get what is the latest track ???

  118. APLS January 12, 2017 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    Matt,

    They said it was because afternoon data came in weaker on QPF amounts. Everyone talks about “modelitis” but everyone seems to have it…lol.

    We are at the mercy of the data we receive.

    Adam

    • Matt Maisch January 12, 2017 at 8:04 pm - Reply

      Hi Adam,

      I would definitely agree with you about the modelitis! If they’re guilty of it, who isn’t?

      Matt

  119. Troy January 12, 2017 at 7:41 pm - Reply

    Here is a link to the 5 worst KS ice storms.
    http://www.weather.gov/ict/ks_worse_ice_storms

  120. LB January 12, 2017 at 8:26 pm - Reply

    I think 5 days from now no one will care what it did three day ago, except the one’s who don’t know how to grive

  121. LB January 12, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    drive….sorry

  122. Snow Miser January 12, 2017 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    #icepocalypse

  123. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 8:36 pm - Reply

    NAM is sticking to us not getting anything

  124. Chiefs January 12, 2017 at 8:38 pm - Reply

    00z Nam. Dont look to impressive with the liquid amounts unless you live south.

  125. Andy January 12, 2017 at 8:40 pm - Reply

    Olathe and Blue Valley buying into the hype, already cancelled school tomorrow.

  126. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 8:47 pm - Reply

    I really just don’t think the nam is handling this right. I don’t necessarily think it will be a huge ice storm, although the potential is there for a decent one. We will have to see what other models say. We are getting close to just now casting time.

  127. APLS January 12, 2017 at 8:52 pm - Reply

    Oh man, if the NAM is right, this is a total bust.

    .10 total downtown. LOL!!

  128. Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 8:53 pm - Reply

    Pretty much everyone has said the one thing this storm has is plenty of moisture

  129. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    It’s Because of the moisture it has available I couldn’t see less than .25 of ice for anyone unless the temperature rose much faster than expected.

  130. Kurt January 12, 2017 at 8:59 pm - Reply

    Why would the national weather service put almost two states under an ice storm warning and the two states to the north under a watch with that data?

    Did the data they sampled have Swiss cheese for breakfast? To panic millions of people and cancel schools, discourage travel and disrupt commerce. We aren’t a gulf coast state, we should be better equipped to deal with this.

    And to not have a good handle on how significant this will or won’t be?

    Absurd, just like the poor way the December 16th nightmare was handled. Talk about 2 extremes. The meteorologists in all media need to work together with transportation officials and schools and municipalities much better.

    Quit trying to out forecast one another and focus on getting it right and quit sensationalizing everything. How hard is to to just stay home this weekend and wait it out? I know that doesn’t apply to all, but if this doesn’t disrupt power things should get to normal Monday

  131. Chiefs January 12, 2017 at 9:02 pm - Reply

    Its slower. There still is more moisture Monday when its rain.

  132. Chiefs January 12, 2017 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    Gary by far has been the most calm of all the other channels and nws. Saying from the start that this was not as bad as others where making it out to be

  133. APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:08 pm - Reply

    Kurt,

    It’s because the data has changed. They wanted to be aggressive and get the message out early, and now the data has backed off some, and this has a chance to be much to do about nothing.

    Sometimes you can’t win with forecasting. If Gary hadn’t waffled this morning, he would look brilliant right now. Literally was the only outlet in town that was forecasting as low as .10.

    Adam

  134. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:12 pm - Reply

    Can we all get some sort of petition going to ECMWF to get rid of that stupid $6,000/year or whatever they charge to get Euro data? I sent them an email requesting access flat out saying hey I’m doing this stuff just to learn programming / grib2 / how to work with the day – and they gave me access to historical stuff. But turns out I could have just done this off their freaking website.

    Just sent an awesome sauce response to them.

    heh yeah so I dug around a bit and see that you have something called MARS… I’m assuming that is where I would get operational model grib2 data from. As an individual just doing this to learn there is no way on earth I would pay $6,000 / a good portion of my annual income, for something that’s educational. That is absurd. I guess I was wishing for something that only the rich elite or pros with corporate backng can afford?

  135. Richard January 12, 2017 at 9:14 pm - Reply

    Gary
    On facebook live right now said the heaviest precip will be Sun night-Mon. Thats what he said yesterday. But today didnt he say heaviest would be Sat night-Sun morn ?

  136. Joshua January 12, 2017 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    I am so confused… I thought the Gulf was open for business with this storm? Will the system completely fall apart before Saturday night?

    When you made your original forecast of 0.1-0.5″ Ice it was because you figured temps would be too warm for the duration of precip. Now it appears you may be correct simply because there will not be enough available moisture. I completely don’t understand what is going on.

  137. APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    There is plenty of moisture. The issue is that the overall storm is slowing down, which means the onset and heaviest precip fall later, which also means less ice before the surface temps climb above freezing.

    The slower progression is the issue. This could really end up being a much more minor issue. Great news! GET TO ARROWHEAD ON SUNDAY KANSAS CITY!!

    Btw, tickets to Sunday’s playoff game at arrowhead are going for UNDER $30 on StubHub! If you’ve ever wanted to go to a playoff game at arrowhead, but couldn’t afford it, here is your chance!

  138. Terry January 12, 2017 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    My work called me No work tomorrow.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:35 pm - Reply

      LoL…why Terry? Nothing is happening tomorrow weather-wise.

  139. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:29 pm - Reply

    I think our cold air was so strong that the shallow Arctic high acted as a block slowing the storm down. Since the storm is kicking from Baja northwest, instead of pushing it further south inatead the cold air just made it cut off a bit.

    • APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:34 pm - Reply

      Excellent point. In any case, this is all great news. Hope the storm continues to slow.

  140. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:31 pm - Reply

    I hate typing on phone keyboards sometimes….

  141. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 9:33 pm - Reply

    Everyone on here is acting like it will be insignificant now just because of ONE run of ONE model. Let’s at least wait for the gfs euro and Canadian before we jump to conclusions. It could be a lot of it could be a little we won’t know until it happens.

    • chiefs January 12, 2017 at 9:43 pm - Reply

      the euro and gfs have been trending this way as well today

  142. APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    0Z GFS now taking temps above freezing for a period of time Saturday afternoon.

  143. David January 12, 2017 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    Gary, by far was the most calm. This is why its much easier to start out low and then scale up vs down, especially when the storm was 3 days away.

  144. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    It would appear that Gary is going with lower total QPF for Sunday at 18z of 0.11″ liquid and 0.1″ ice for KC metro. Was on twitter at ~6:30 pm. For St. Joe, same liquid, but 0″ ice, and in Butler it was 0.41″ liquid with 0.2″ ice.

    Not sure which blend of model data Gary’s using for this, but something seems to be off. The NAM has been on the low side and Gary indicated that the Euro dropped as well. I don’t have access to that model to evaluate.

    The weather balloons that went up on the west coast and those that go up tomorrow should provide better data. This will allow for improved forecasts.

    Ice is not like predicting straight rain or snow. Much more complex with frontal boundary movement, surface temps, temps in the 925 mb layer, wind directions, other surface features such as high pressure bring in cold air near the surface, and the upper level features such as the high P zone off the SE coast and closed off low to the SW.

    I encourage everyone to recognize this storm for what it is. A complex stew with numerous subtle flavors that waft through from time to time.

  145. Mr. Pete January 12, 2017 at 9:47 pm - Reply

    Hen House had no bread or milk. Unbelievable.

    • Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 9:57 pm - Reply

      They should be restocked sometime tomorrow morning. I think this storm has awakened folks due to memories of the 2002 storm.

      You can’t blame people and the mets. This puppy has been all over the map with no real consistent solutions, other than the Euro and perhaps the Canadian models, and they were on the high side in terms of ice accumulation.

      This is not a typical weather event. Ice is much more dangerous and way harder to predict accumulations due to subtel changes in temperatures in the column.

      People should take heed and just be prepared. If it turns out to be not as bad then we can all celebrate and watch the Chiefs. If it turns out to be worse then we just have to buck up and get through the aftermath.

      God Bless Gary and all other mets, DOTs, and Emergency Managers. TIS NOT EASY FOLKS!

  146. APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    0Z GFS now going above freezing by 7am Sunday. This is all wonderful news!

    • Joe K January 12, 2017 at 10:08 pm - Reply

      APLS,

      This close to the storm, the models become less useful. The dynamics to this storm are incredible as well as unpredictable. So when looking at the models, keep that in mind as the Mets know this and use their expertise and knowledge to attempt to interpret them.

      • APLS January 12, 2017 at 10:18 pm - Reply

        Joe,

        I’m with you for the most part. Here is my issue, however. NWS issued their afternoon AFD with strong wording based on morning data. Gary, for a brief period, upped his forecast, because of the data. The NWS said this evening on a live feed, they would be trimming back forecasted ice totals because of, you guessed it, afternoon data! Gary went back to his previous forecast because of the same.

        The evening data is continuing the same trend, and would fully expect forecasts to follow suit, because of the new data.

        Storm is still a few days away, so how do forecasts trend through that time?? Depends on yet again…the data…lol

        It will forever and always matter.

        • Joe K January 12, 2017 at 10:54 pm - Reply

          APLS,

          Agreed and good observations however, one thing I have learned over the years is that even the mets get caught up in the data sometimes but I have seen too many storms such as this fool everybody. I guess we will know soon enough

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:33 pm - Reply

      yeah…that’s not happening

  147. chiefs January 12, 2017 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    Gfs is wetter than the Nam but its also warmer

  148. APLS January 12, 2017 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    GFS has just over .30 inches of ice, but that’s less than half of what it showed on its 12Z run this morning. So this continues the trend on seeing lighter amounts.

    • f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:58 pm - Reply

      And it donut holes us. .6″ by the airport… 3/4″ near Lawrence

  149. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    Watch us get nothing and this ends up all rain and being a total flop. KC weather for ya.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:32 pm - Reply

      lol…nobody is thinking that will happen…we will get some ice…only question is how much

  150. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 9:59 pm - Reply

    Keep in mind gfs is very bad with temps. It is usually pretty accurate with precip totals though. When does Canadian come out?

  151. chiefs January 12, 2017 at 10:06 pm - Reply

    i wonder if it was a record day for new sign ups on here today.

  152. Eric M Rothrock January 12, 2017 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    I am so confused! Gary definitely downplayed it on his FB live chat then I went over to KMBC FB live chat and they acted way more concerned… Hmmm it seems like everyone is in disagreement! Lol I don’t understand why schools are being cancelled for tomorrow…. Makes no sense to me.

  153. APLS January 12, 2017 at 10:08 pm - Reply

    Canadian model should be coming out shortly..

  154. chiefs January 12, 2017 at 10:10 pm - Reply

    School are closing based only on headlines of nws ICE STORM WARNING. tomorrow not even gonna be bad until maybe late pm. and even them amounts look minor. very early sunday morning looking like the only major issue chances

  155. Jess January 12, 2017 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    When does the Euro come out?

    • Gary H January 12, 2017 at 10:47 pm - Reply

      About 1 AM

  156. f00dl3 January 12, 2017 at 10:15 pm - Reply

    Funny… all these models/even high res ones/ you would think we have better forecasting but they all just have different ideas.

  157. Eric M Rothrock January 12, 2017 at 10:21 pm - Reply

    Just watched some of Joe Laurias FB live and he seems to be right in between Gary and KMBC. He’s not downplaying it, but he’s also not freaking people out like KMBC is. It’ll be interesting to see what actually happens! I’m one of the weird ones who wants a big ice storm… I love any kind of winter weather, always have since I was a kid.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:30 pm - Reply

      Eric..i love snowstorms and the like, but stuck at home in the dark with no power…there’s just nothing at all fun about that.

      • Eric M Rothrock January 12, 2017 at 10:45 pm - Reply

        Yeah I can understand that Heat Miser. I would be ok with that for a day but after that I’d get a little annoyed. I just love the way it looks outside after an ice storm. It’s very pretty. Like I said I am definitely one of the weird ones who’s wishing for more ice.

  158. Three7s January 12, 2017 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    I’m really surprised at the school closings already for tomorrow. Most of the models have ZERO precip tomorrow. Yes, I know there’s always a chance, but seriously…….

  159. APLS January 12, 2017 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    0Z Canadian model is following the GFS on going above freezing for a time Saturday afternoon. So thats a significant change from the morning data.

  160. Chiefs January 12, 2017 at 10:34 pm - Reply

    Gary on the 10pm news said he was leaning toward the .10 of ice. And that’s what the power cast showed. Showed no real ice until 7am or so Sunday lasting very little time before it changed to rain.

    • Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:43 pm - Reply

      If Gary is right, makes the NWS look like incompetent, blithering idiots. LoL

  161. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 10:34 pm - Reply

    Can someone post a link to the Canadian model please. I don’t think temps being above freezing briefly Saturday afternoon would affect totals because lack of precip at this time.

  162. APLS January 12, 2017 at 10:34 pm - Reply

    0Z Canadian at 12Z Sunday morning: 28 degrees

    0Z GFS at 12Z Sunday morning: 33 degrees

    What a huge difference..

    • Three7s January 12, 2017 at 10:36 pm - Reply

      Yeah, but we all saw how well the temps were handled by the models today……

  163. Kstater January 12, 2017 at 10:35 pm - Reply

    I am not sure what model Gary uses for powercast but it seemed to show even less ice than the nam which is the weakest on ice totals.

  164. Rockdoc January 12, 2017 at 10:36 pm - Reply

    It appears that the WPC has high confidence that our area will receive 0.5″ -0.75″ of freezing rain/ice over a 24 hour period up to 18z Sunday. It is in the 95th percentile range for freezing rain accumulation.

    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=24&ptype=icez

  165. APLS January 12, 2017 at 10:38 pm - Reply

    0Z Canadian is by far the coldest model. Keeps temps at freezing or below through 0Z Sunday evening.

    Also still shows a significant ice storm. It’s in its own camp now.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011300&fh=78&r=us_c&dpdt=

  166. Mr. Pete January 12, 2017 at 10:40 pm - Reply

    I’ll be so happy if this ice storm never gets its act together. It’s no fun at all. A power outage would be bad. Snow is so much prettier.

    • Three7s January 12, 2017 at 10:43 pm - Reply

      I just find it funny how the stores were completely packed today for, potentially, a non-event tomorrow.

      • Joe K January 12, 2017 at 10:57 pm - Reply

        Three 7s,

        That has become the norm. People panic when facing a 1-3 inch snow however, when pertaining to a potential ice storm, I tend to agree in the” better to be prepared than not” theory

    • Chiefs January 12, 2017 at 10:45 pm - Reply

      I agree snow is 1 thing. But ice. No thank you

  167. Heat MIser January 12, 2017 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    There is nothing good about ice. Snow rules!

  168. Joshua January 12, 2017 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    From NWS Topeka earlier this evening

    “The models are still struggling with how far north to
    bring the freezing rain on Friday and Saturday. The 12Z GFS has the
    QPF amounts and placement that makes the most sense conceptually
    when compared to past ice storms under similar synoptic patterns.
    Usually there is an elongated swath of precip from southwest to
    northeast across the central US with embedded convection. Therefore
    I`m not sure why some of the models have limited QPF until the main
    low pressure lifts out. Moisture does not seem to be an issue
    especially in the elevated warm layer.”

  169. Phillip January 12, 2017 at 11:05 pm - Reply

    Gonna be worse than you think 😉 Buckle up… gonna get icy!!

  170. SnowDays January 12, 2017 at 11:17 pm - Reply

    Wow close to 300 comments, just like the old days on the KSHB blog. Can’t wait to see how this all shakes out tomorrow!

    Also, for the record, as a high school teacher, I don’t want to see kids driving on ice so I’m happy with the snow day!

  171. Snowmizer January 12, 2017 at 11:35 pm - Reply

    I can’t believe Superintendents of schools around the area are calling off schools! Longtime it’s been since I’ve posted. Don’t even know if I am going to show up as Snowmizer! So far the superintendent at LSR-7 (Lees Summit) is not panicking!

  172. WeathermanKumke January 13, 2017 at 1:06 am - Reply

    Looks like the Euro is Staying course for a major Ice Storm in KC. Has Been the ONLY Model for the last 6 days to put the swath of heavy Ice from KC SW towards Central and SW Kansas/NW Oklahoma.

    • D100patel January 13, 2017 at 1:33 am - Reply

      have a link by chance?

  173. Dave LS January 13, 2017 at 1:19 am - Reply

    Looking at the water vapor satellite you can see just how much pacific moisture is being pulled in. As for the gulf, I know that high pressure is pumping it in too. The question is, where is the battle ground going to set up?

  174. Dave LS January 13, 2017 at 3:07 am - Reply

    Still in moderation but, will be interesting to see the temp swings this weekend.
    GO CHEIFS!! I feel Maclin has a game to remember.

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