Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will be developingi over the southwestern stated beginning later tonight and Thursday. The model solutions are all over the place. A cold front is now on the move and about to blast south, and incredibly stall.  How will this all come together over the weekend? Many areas could use a big drink of water from Mother Nature.

The models:  The models have once again come out with widely varying solutions

  • European model: This model created a major ice storm over parts of Oklahoma and southern Kansas and was quite wet.
  • NAM model:  This model is slower with the storm.  It has a lead light freezing rain event at 3 AM tonight, and has been the only model to have this.  It only had around .01″ Friday night.  Temps approach 32 on Saturday which is as far ad this model goes out!
  • GFS model:  This model has again come out with a light icing near KC and not much ice anywhere.  Warmer air gets drawn in and the storm is a bit slower and farther north on Sunday into Monday. It does produce some great precipitation over western Kansas where they really need it.
  • Canadian model: The Canadian model has a high temperature of 48 degrees on Sunday evening. Wow! But, it also has around 1/2″ of ice accumulation before it warms above freezing.

My take on the storm at this stage:  I still will be consistent tonight on the air!  Mike Marusarz, my anchorman, just sent me the link about major power outages, major tree damage and more. I can’t stop the hype. Is it possible, sure, but I would put the chance of a major ice storm at less than 10% right now. If that chance increases, then we can adjust. But, I JUST DON’T SEE IT. So, we are still forecasting a minor icing event near KC.  It still could cause major impacts if you are the one that falls or gets into an accident.  Again, if we see any evidence truly in the direction of a major ice storm, then we will update our forecast.

Just the next few hours are fascinating to me, how about you? Look at this one forecast map valid at 2 PM this afternoon. It will likely be in the 60s near KC, 70s over Oklahoma, and 9 degrees in Valentine, NE. This is a strong cold front heading our way:

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By Thursday night at 12:30 AM the extremes are incredible once again. This has already happened a couple of other times this season. This forecast shows a 93 degree contrast in temperatures from Bismarck, ND where it is forecast to be 27 degrees below zero, to Dallas, TX where it is forecast to be 66° at the same time:

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The cold air will be surging south, but then it will stall in response to the southwestern developing storm system.  There will be a tremendous moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico with added moisture from the Pacific that will be tapped by this storm.

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The new data is trending slowly warmer, and it is still a few days away. Let’s look deeper into this on 41 Action News, KSHB.com, and in the blog tomorrow.

Gary