What A Fascinating Weather Pattern We Are In

/What A Fascinating Weather Pattern We Are In

What A Fascinating Weather Pattern We Are In

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will be developingi over the southwestern stated beginning later tonight and Thursday. The model solutions are all over the place. A cold front is now on the move and about to blast south, and incredibly stall.  How will this all come together over the weekend? Many areas could use a big drink of water from Mother Nature.

The models:  The models have once again come out with widely varying solutions

  • European model: This model created a major ice storm over parts of Oklahoma and southern Kansas and was quite wet.
  • NAM model:  This model is slower with the storm.  It has a lead light freezing rain event at 3 AM tonight, and has been the only model to have this.  It only had around .01″ Friday night.  Temps approach 32 on Saturday which is as far ad this model goes out!
  • GFS model:  This model has again come out with a light icing near KC and not much ice anywhere.  Warmer air gets drawn in and the storm is a bit slower and farther north on Sunday into Monday. It does produce some great precipitation over western Kansas where they really need it.
  • Canadian model: The Canadian model has a high temperature of 48 degrees on Sunday evening. Wow! But, it also has around 1/2″ of ice accumulation before it warms above freezing.

My take on the storm at this stage:  I still will be consistent tonight on the air!  Mike Marusarz, my anchorman, just sent me the link about major power outages, major tree damage and more. I can’t stop the hype. Is it possible, sure, but I would put the chance of a major ice storm at less than 10% right now. If that chance increases, then we can adjust. But, I JUST DON’T SEE IT. So, we are still forecasting a minor icing event near KC.  It still could cause major impacts if you are the one that falls or gets into an accident.  Again, if we see any evidence truly in the direction of a major ice storm, then we will update our forecast.

Just the next few hours are fascinating to me, how about you? Look at this one forecast map valid at 2 PM this afternoon. It will likely be in the 60s near KC, 70s over Oklahoma, and 9 degrees in Valentine, NE. This is a strong cold front heading our way:


By Thursday night at 12:30 AM the extremes are incredible once again. This has already happened a couple of other times this season. This forecast shows a 93 degree contrast in temperatures from Bismarck, ND where it is forecast to be 27 degrees below zero, to Dallas, TX where it is forecast to be 66° at the same time:


The cold air will be surging south, but then it will stall in response to the southwestern developing storm system.  There will be a tremendous moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico with added moisture from the Pacific that will be tapped by this storm.


The new data is trending slowly warmer, and it is still a few days away. Let’s look deeper into this on 41 Action News, KSHB.com, and in the blog tomorrow.


2017-01-14T07:50:20+00:00 January 11th, 2017|General|181 Comments


  1. Alex Pickman January 11, 2017 at 3:45 am - Reply

    This is the most fascinating storm system we have had approach in the last few years. Although I wish we werent dealing with the warm air aloft, and it was snow instead. Should be exciting as this energy comes on shore to see which way the models trend once the storm is sampled inland

    • Rockdoc January 11, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

      Couldn’t agree more Alex. Until this puppy comes on shore the models are just grabbing. But they are definitely onto something.

  2. Mike January 11, 2017 at 5:57 am - Reply

    EURO shows .78″ of ice for the KC metro area but the best news is the 2.30″ of moisture from now until next Tuesday. Impressive amount of moisture considering it is January.

  3. Brian C January 11, 2017 at 6:47 am - Reply

    Rain baby rain!

  4. Terry January 11, 2017 at 7:04 am - Reply

    Rain freezing Not Rain

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 9:29 am - Reply

      Why would you wish for freezing rain…nothing good about that at all.

  5. Choppy January 11, 2017 at 7:20 am - Reply

    You gotta have a screw loose if you’re wishing for freezing rain.

    • Randy Keller January 11, 2017 at 1:27 pm - Reply

      maybe he just likes weather extremes? storms are interesting no matter what to me.

  6. Clint January 11, 2017 at 7:21 am - Reply

    Springfield NWS issuing Winter Storm Watches. Says that N HWY 54 could see over 1/2 in of ice

  7. Skylar January 11, 2017 at 7:25 am - Reply

    This is definitely an interesting system to follow. A validation of the GFS in the end would be a victory for Gary and the LRC which have been forecasting a slower and warmer arrival of this system. And, in past events, it’s been shown that relying on the LRC would have provided the best forecast in the end.

    However, given how significant this storm could be if it were just a few degrees cooler, I feel like it would be very irresponsible to downplay the potential impacts. Even just a light glaze during the Friday evening rush hour could cause a traffic nightmare. Even with light precipitation, this would still easily be more than minor or a nuisance.

  8. Bill in Lawrence January 11, 2017 at 7:39 am - Reply


    Good Wednesday morning to you sir.

    Just a couple thoughts this morning.

    First of all, the temperature contrasts are just amazing and this front will be so much fun to track today. This is kind of corny I know, but I love watching strong fronts like this.

    Looking at the models, even the GFS, I am ready to eat my crow whenever anyone wants to serve it up. Even the warmer and slower GFS (which I think has the best handle on the situation) is still giving us over .10 of ice Friday-Tuesday so by my criteria, this looks to be a winter event and I was wrong. Please serve it warm if at all possible. 🙂

    Finally, so much to think about with this set up. As a hobbyist, I think I will just sit back and observe as I am not qualified to be discussing this situation; when talking about something like a possible ice situation even if light, I don’t want to be throwing out ideas that are misinterpreting the data and are false. That is just my own personal thing and is not for anyone else. Hope that makes sense.

    This will be interesting to follow and see how it all evolves for sure. There will be time later to discuss this in relation to the LRC but for now time to watch it all unfold.

    Have a great Wednesday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Baseball Mike January 11, 2017 at 8:02 am - Reply

      Good morning Bill

      I agree with and your thoughts- I have not been commenting much over the past couple of months-yesterday was interesting in that the wind was out of the south southwest and then the wind came in from the northwest brisk-then it was so incredible that our windmill stopped dead in its tracks as the front died to the south- the wind is brisk again this morning out of the south southwest-if you have the view to the northwest you can start to make out the etchings of the next front-another weather source that I listen to every morning relys mostly on the GFS I believe is sensing the slower movement and therefore hinting that we may not get the brunt of the storm but any slight icing will of course cause treacherous driving-thanks for your insight-Michael/Berryton /Topeka

  9. Rockdoc January 11, 2017 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Regardless of what happens, to put it into perspective, the January 2002 storm produced between 2-3 inches of ice. All we can do at this time is monitor and let the pros interpret the data.

  10. Clint January 11, 2017 at 8:07 am - Reply

    Folks in the Warrensburg, Clinton, and Sedaila areas could see some light fr. drizzle tomorrow morning per the NAM. .05 is forecasted but as we saw with I-29 in the last storm that can make roads very slick.

  11. rred95 January 11, 2017 at 8:16 am - Reply

    Don’t find this pattern fascinating at all, although im mostly interested in snowfall in winter, I guess I should try and open my mind to rain, wind, and temp swings,

    • Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 9:05 am - Reply

      lol, feel your pain brother!

  12. Kathy January 11, 2017 at 8:37 am - Reply

    For those of you who remember the 2002 ice storm, I would like to ask a question: Do any of you remember the forecast leading up to that storm? Was it pretty much a sure thing with all of the models or did they waiver as well in the days leading up to the storm? Just curious. And, I remember that storm very well. My house caught on fire because the line from our meter to the pole snapped causing an arching at our meter, which in turn caused a fire. Fortunately, a neighbor spotted it and immediately called our fire department, which limited the damage to our house. We were at work and never knew (no one called us) until we got home. Fortunately, our new home has buried lines and we have a generator installed.

  13. Skylar January 11, 2017 at 8:47 am - Reply

    The new NAM is coming out with the freezing line several counties farther south than the GFS. That could easily be wrong, but its only another reason we shouldnt be discounting the potential of this event.

  14. Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    I see a big rain event, if you are talking 2-3 inches of precip, and warm air aloft, that is a lot of heat falling through the cold layer. Another thing I noticed is the forecast lows thru the weekend seem to be way to low, generally in these events the evening lows stay relatively close to the average day time temp. Latest GFS has upper low moving due east thru southern Kansas…might see some big wet snow flakes on Monday under calm winds, that’s always a majestic thing to witness.

    • Richard January 11, 2017 at 9:06 am - Reply

      Heat rises. How will heat fall through the cold layer. Cold is heavier. Dense.

      • Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 9:12 am - Reply

        Heat is carried in the rain droplets.

  15. David January 11, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    I also saw the new NAM. However, it has most of the ice south of KC

  16. Richard January 11, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Anything for KC tomorrow like the graphic that Heady showed yesterday on twitter ?
    He had KC in the purple moderate ice Thurs-Sat.
    So, will there be a band here on Thursday ? One day out.

  17. Kurt January 11, 2017 at 9:08 am - Reply

    The forecast for the 2002 ice storm was for almost 20 inches of snow near St. Joseph. However, we only had about half a foot of wet snow before it transitioned to a freezing rain/drizzle and left a layer of ice on top of the snow. We faired decently up here, but furhter north near Maryville I believe there were collapsed roofs (flat roofs) due to more snow and the ice that fell on the snow.

    Our worse ice came when I was in Houston in December 2007 and my relatives up here were without power off and on for 11 days leading up to Christmas.

  18. MMike January 11, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Total moisture for this storm could be in the 1-2 inch range. Since Dec. 1st, KC Officially has seen 1.58 inches of moisture. Should we see that much moisture by Tuesday, we will soar to above average moisture to date for the winter. Now, it certainly has been dry since Oct. 1st after we saw 45-50 inches of moisture again in 2016(well above the annual average)but, currently, soils are plenty moist. See for yourself. We have had moist soils since the first part of Dec. The rain event that we had to open Dec. never got out of the soils, it froze with the below average temps in Dec. The frost line has since melted, froze again, and melted again. With the snow melt and some rain events, plus several drizzle days and higher humidity days, our top-soils are in very good shape. We may have dried out below 6 inches, but I don’t know for sure as I have not seen a soil test since Mid-Nov.

    My point, although below average by just .32 since Dec. 1st, the timing of the moisture and the preserving of it by the cold temps and open soils, we’re actually pretty moist right now. Yes, ponds have come down in some areas and other parts of KC might be drier, all in all, it could be much worse. This storm should load us back up for some time and once again, put us in a surplus for the winter season. I wonder if we will freeze the top 1-2 inches again Thursday through Saturday evening causing most of the heavy rain later Sunday to run off? Some of you folks that need water to your ponds might want that.

    We’re also below average on temps since Dec. 1st. We’ll see how this month ends up and how winter finishes. Lot a winter left.

    Now, will we see an ice storm? We still don’t know, do we?

  19. Mr. Pete January 11, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

    Well whatever happens, unlike in 2002, it’s gonna warm up pretty quickly after the event, unlike last time where it was bitterly cold for days after

  20. Rockdoc January 11, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    The NAM only goes to 6 pm Saturday right now. The Canadian and GFS have most of the storm from Saturday through Sunday. The Canadian is more aggressive with regards to the amount of ice. We’ll have to wait on the NAM to see what it does through Sunday. NAM appears to be a little slower on the arrival up in our area.

  21. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Gonna repost what I put on Facebook!

    So in this weekend’s weather situation you get a dam effect provided by the Rocky Mountains. As the storm system dives into and churns over the desert southwest/Baja, warm pacific tropical air is tossed up over the mountains due to the fact the mountains provide lift to the air. On the other side of the mountains, you have a bowl effect. The cold front due in later today will seep in, but that air at the surface can not be modified by the air being elevated by the mountains. As this happens, and the low kicks out, the low then starts to pull moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico over that cold air at the very surface. The problem is, warm air rises, cold air sinks. The cold air at the surface becomes saturated to 100% humidity, but the warm air trapped above it prevents the surface air from mixing with the mid level air. This creates a prolonged period of freezing rain. Eventually the warm air may win as the storm gets closer, but, you have 3 different air masses fighting for control. And you have tropical Pacific air caught in the middle level of the atmosphere, meaning the interface where the moist and cold air collide at the surface is cold, and that region in the lower atmosphere where the precipitation starts from the surface contrast is warmer.

    In all reality, 1-1.5″ of ice would not shock me. Models ALWAYS underestimate cold air trapping.

    • Skylar January 11, 2017 at 9:38 am - Reply

      I think another possibility people aren’t paying enough attention to is the cold air winning out. Having it be nearly 30 below in the Dakotas Means the few points are even lower..and may possibly end up creating a wall to most of the precipitation until right as the storm moves by.

    • f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 9:41 am - Reply

      Also there is a surface high over the Gulf of Mexico which will only help to excess the moisture flow.

    • SnowDays January 11, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

      This is great, thanks for sharing!

      Somewhere in your description there is an analogy of a Mexican Seven Layer Dip and all those layers of air haha but I’m just an English teacher and not enough of a foody/weather man for that…

    • waldo weather January 11, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

      Where did you post this on facebook? Thanks.

    • Richard January 11, 2017 at 9:52 am - Reply

      1- 1.5 ? Not good.
      What about wind when the ice starts stacking up on the power lines. Any way to tell from models what kind of wind will come Fri-Sun ?

      • f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

        The data I’m pulling out of GRIB2 files shows that the winds should only be 5-15 MPH. So at least that’s good news there.

  22. Dave January 11, 2017 at 9:38 am - Reply

    I was reading the NWS forecast discussion this morning and I find it interesting that they keep saying the same thing with regards to several of the models…that they may be ‘underestimating’ the cold air.

    Either way, it will be fun to track over the next few days.

    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

  23. REAL HUMEDUDE January 11, 2017 at 9:45 am - Reply

    We have signature storm #1 ! Many said we would not enjoy ANY signature storms, but I cautioned that cycle #2 is very often MUCH different than cycle #1. We might get another couple signature storms to come along this cycle, this is clearly another MLK storm to put on the calendar.
    Also, remember when many bloggers were convinced this would be the warmest winter ever? Might not EVER get cold this year? LMAO at that thought now, its been well below zero twice already! So maybe next year we will keep our shirt on about the upcoming season as we now know how many tricks can come down in later cycles.

    • MMike January 11, 2017 at 10:00 am - Reply


      I know, right? There’s no cold air in the pattern and no way do we have winter this year because October and November were so warm. It will be bone dry too. Now the same folks are talking drought….again.

      Look at all these warm surges and cold fronts that we have had since Dec. 1st, how can this not be a wet pattern in the spring when the seasonal moisture lines up and these features cycle back through.

      • Richard January 11, 2017 at 10:12 am - Reply

        Wrong. I don’t see anyone talking about drought rught now, or recently.
        Now, I was one who thought it would be a winter on the warner side. I also remember saying I would take my lumps and admit if I was wrong.
        So on the warm winter I was wrong.
        Remains to be seen if we go into a drought this summer.

        • MMike January 11, 2017 at 10:26 am - Reply


          “Weather2020 is forecasting that a drought will continue to grow as we move into spring and summer”

          Gary just said this yesterday. And, yes, there was all kinds of the same ole some ole in October and November that this winter will be very warm and dry…plenty talk about drought too.

          Listen, that may very well happen, it’s bound to one of these years again. But, most should not call out a whole season before it even starts. Many did with winter..

          Also, winter is far from over, you may still end being right. Currently, we’re below average on temps and we’ll likely be above average on moisture by Monday sometime. It could all shut off after that, you just never know.

          Go Chiefs, Richard….big game. Just give us fans a 6 hour window of dry…

  24. waldo weather January 11, 2017 at 9:48 am - Reply

    NWS Kansas City twitter…. Expecting a prolonged freezing rain event with around 1/2″ of ice.

  25. Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 10:00 am - Reply

    Sound Familiar?

    Up until the point of the storm the weather in Kansas City had been remarkably pleasant; The city appeared to be experiencing a mild winter, and 2 days before the storm the temperature was over 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

    According to Weather Central;

    “ An Arctic front moved slowly southward into the Central Plains from January 29 to 30, resulting in a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Meanwhile, a strong southwesterly jet stream began transporting a large surge of moist air with connections to the tropical Pacific. A strong temperature boundary developed, separating the warm, moist airmass across the southern U.S. from the colder, drier airmass to the north. As surface impulses moved along the frontal boundary, the stage was set for a widespread variety of winter weather. An upper level low progressing eastward across the central Pacific provided the added ingredients for a prolonged precipitation event.”

    The storm left up to 3 inches of ice over the affected regions on the evening of January 30. Affected infrastructure initially held, but began to crumble as the night wore on. Electric transformers were prone to explosion and in some cases created small fires, and trees shattered under the weight of hundreds of pounds of ice. Larger trees were actually more susceptible to cracking and falling than smaller trees, with pin oak trees falling while twigs remained undamaged. After the 31st, more than 650,000 residents were without power, including 350,000 in the Kansas City metropolitan area alone and 250,000 in Oklahoma. In some cases, power didn’t return to residents for nearly 14 days. Approximately 500,000 trees were affected in Kansas City alone, including two “Bicentennial Trees” which were estimated at being over 200 years old. States of emergency were announced by the governors of all three states. Then on the tail end of the storm, some places got snow on top of the ice that had fallen, only worsening the problem.

  26. MMike January 11, 2017 at 10:04 am - Reply


    I remember that clearly, you are right, it was crazy warm right before that ice storm.

    Speaking of cold, the front has plowed through NW MO, down into the lower 30’s already, how warm do we go before the cold front hits. 55 right now.

  27. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:07 am - Reply

    Funny – the GFS is warm and has the freezing rain to our north, the NAM is colder and keeps the bulk to our south, and the Canadian is a blend of both, has it right over us, and slams us.

  28. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Even with the GFS being to our north and warm, it still gives us 1/4″ of ice. Ice Storm Warning criteria, on the low end.

  29. MMike January 11, 2017 at 10:11 am - Reply

    Latest GFS would also suggest a dry tailgate and kick-off……temps around 31-32. I’ll take it.

  30. Terry January 11, 2017 at 10:20 am - Reply

    I think some are trying to down play this Ice event and if it dose get bad out side it you can’t be a matter of life or death for people.

    • Terry January 11, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

      I can be i meant to say. So i dont think we should be saying its not going to get bad. Didnt we say that the models are still flawed or all over the place we are still saying it.

      • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 12:31 pm - Reply

        Terry, rooting for snow is fine. You shouldn’t root for ice…it’s dangerous and there is nothing good about it.

  31. Big Papa POOF January 11, 2017 at 10:45 am - Reply

    Terry – I have just THREE words for ya!


    • Three7s January 11, 2017 at 11:45 am - Reply

      We sure hope it goes “POOF”.

  32. Fred Nolan January 11, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

    So just exactly how does this storm line up with the LRC? Was this event ever on the “radar” in terms of long range forecasting?

    • MMike January 11, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply


      Weather2020 12 week forecast did have a storm at the end of the week of Jan. 9th and the beginning of the week of Jan. 16th. So, yes, it did predict this from 3-4 weeks ago when it updated it’s 12 week forecast. It will miss the artic/cold air mass for late this week. Did it predict an ice storm, no, but it had a storm between the 14th and 17th. But, given it’s Jan. one should know that when a storm comes through in Jan. all forms of precip. are on the table.

  33. LSMike(Cowboys) January 11, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

    Please don’t let this take the power out, I have to watch my Cowboys play. That would be horrible if we could not watch the games!!!

    • MMike January 11, 2017 at 11:17 am - Reply


      Those Cowboys aren’t going to do the same thing as the Rangers did, are they? Best record in the league for both teams….uh oh.

      Good Luck…hopefully we(the Chiefs) see you in the SB.

  34. Eric January 11, 2017 at 11:07 am - Reply

    Any updates on the models?

  35. stl78 January 11, 2017 at 11:14 am - Reply

    Can u watch on phone or tablet mike?

    • LSMike(Cowboys) January 11, 2017 at 11:17 am - Reply

      ya I gotta back up plan ready….NWS “The main focus of the forecast period is this weekend, as a
      potential winter storm looks increasingly likely”

      • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 12:29 pm - Reply

        yeah, but for who?

  36. Dan M. January 11, 2017 at 11:25 am - Reply

    Gary any updates on timing etc.? I am mostly concerned about the day on Saturday til about 6pm. Models seem be all over the place for Saturday with precip and temperatures.

  37. APLS January 11, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    12Z Canadian took a big jump towards the GFS. Still significant icing, but cut the totals by more than half from last nights fun.

  38. Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    The storm is so massive it has left Gary speechless, currently he is drooling over his keyboard unable to express his emotions, literally in a state of shock. Gary! snap out of it man, we need your perspective!

    • Gary January 11, 2017 at 11:49 am - Reply

      Here is what I just finished up on the blog. I was in a meeting: My take on the storm at this stage: I still will be consistent tonight on the air! Mike Marusarz, my anchorman, just sent me the link about major power outages, major tree damage and more. I can’t stop the hype. Is it possible, sure, but I would put the chance of a major ice storm at less than 10% right now. If that chance increases, then we can adjust. But, I JUST DON’T SEE IT. So, we are still forecasting a minor icing event near KC. It still could cause major impacts if you are the one that falls or gets into an accident. Again, if we see any evidence truly in the direction of a major ice storm, then we will update our forecast.

      • Urbanity January 11, 2017 at 12:01 pm - Reply

        Good news, TY

  39. David January 11, 2017 at 11:51 am - Reply

    I think we will get some ice, but not even close to having enough for massive power outages. I’d say maybe 0.2 inches of ice Saturday/Sat night, followed by rain Sunday afternoon to about Tuesday morning. Will it cause accidents, sure, if people arent careful.

  40. Phillip January 11, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

    Who near us do you see getting a major ice storm Gary? And what has to change for us to get more of the ice?

    • Gary January 11, 2017 at 12:01 pm - Reply


      There are many factors to track. I will try to lay this out tomorrow. #1: How much cold air blasts in here tonight through Friday is a big factor. The track of the upper level storm that forms near Los Angeles Friday is a huge factor. Will it kick out over western Kansas, eastern Colorado, or drift towards central Kansas? And, what will the strength of that upper level storm be is factor #3. The strength and track will help decide whether the warmer air can be pulled northward. A slightly weaker and farther south storm could help the below freezing temperatures stay a bit longer.

      There are other factors as well. Right now, the trend continues to be for the main precipitation event arriving Sunday night into Monday and not earlier. If it is earlier the icing could add up before it warms up. Does this make sense?


  41. Dave January 11, 2017 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    I think the comment: “minor event” is an interesting take.

    Couple of weeks, ago, there was a minor event of ‘freezing drizzle,’ that shut down I-70 for several hours, left people stranded, and caused hundreds of accidents.

    I think that “minor event” was downplayed by Gary, and he was surprised that it happened…after the fact.

    It doesn’t take a “minor event” to have a major impact…especially when so many people will be traveling for the playoff game or having other activities to attend to.

    Hope you are right, but if you are wrong…

    • ClassyCat January 11, 2017 at 12:25 pm - Reply

      And Dave, Gary has clearly stated multiple times (see his write up above) that minor doesn’t mean it can’t have major impacts. This would lead one to conclude that when he says the work “minor”, he is referring to the amount of ice coming down from the sky I would think. He doesn’t see major power outages or widespread tree damage or roof damage. Could you have an isolated area due to weak trees or where more overhead power lines are versus underground? Sure. He’s also stated (see his write up above or watch him on the air) that minor is not minor for some who fall and break their arm or crash their car.

    • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

      Minor icing can make it slick obviously, but a major event would involve downed trees and power line, which isn’t in the cards. That’s the point he’s making.

  42. Brian C January 11, 2017 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    I love reading the meltdowns and repetitive bragging on this blog.

    • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 12:34 pm - Reply

      repetitive bragging? Where?

  43. Dave January 11, 2017 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Yes, I have read his statement.

    Maybe that’s his take…minor is .10 and major is .25.

    All I know is that when people hear the word minor, they assume a non-event or something small…or insignificant.

    It is a dangerous use of word play, in my opinion…and it is just my opinion.

    • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 12:36 pm - Reply

      In a vacuum, yes. But on the air when Gary mentions minor ice accumulations, he always includes that could still cause slick spots and can still be dangerous. He always explains what to expect. If he just said minor ice accumulations expected and that was it, then you would have a point.

    • Clint January 11, 2017 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      Gary takes major to be .75-1in or more. To me major is .5 or more but I guess it’s all relative to what your doing and where you live

    • ClassyCat January 11, 2017 at 12:39 pm - Reply

      Dave, apparently you don’t read what he writes or listen to what he says, because he did say the work minor (in terms of ice and widespread damage) but in the same breath he said it cause major headaches if you are the one who experiences a problem. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but I think it’s concluded by not reading or listening to his entire explanation. He’s never once said “minor”, don’t worry about it. He’s always said it can still cause problems. I don’t know what else he can say. If he doesn’t believe it’s going to be a major ice event, he should not say it will be. Obviously, everyone knows a major ice storm is bad, but that’s why he also said a minor one can still be bad for certain individuals.

      • ClassyCat January 11, 2017 at 12:40 pm - Reply

        word, not work.

  44. Big Papa POOF January 11, 2017 at 12:39 pm - Reply


  45. MIke January 11, 2017 at 12:42 pm - Reply

    12 EURO shows 1″ of ice and 1.66″ of moisture for KC.

    • Clint January 11, 2017 at 12:44 pm - Reply

      Ouch! Would you be able to link that please?

    • Gant January 11, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

      I saw that. Definitely moved north in the current run.

    • Terry January 11, 2017 at 1:52 pm - Reply

      Is the GFS model always right ? No o dont think it is

  46. Phillip January 11, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

    Better stock up. Could get ugly

  47. Phillip January 11, 2017 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    Thank you for clarifying some things for me Gary!

  48. APLS January 11, 2017 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    Ya, the Euro is nasty. But is it right?? Gary is obviously hedging towards the GFS.

    Probably smart…but…

  49. Dave from Shawnee January 11, 2017 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    I put the 2002 ice storm in the “major” category, but many people would also put isolated areas of 0.1″ of icing in the “major” category if it affects them in a negative way (slip on ice, slide off road, etc.). Words like “major” and “minor” obviously mean different things to different people, hence the lively discussion above. Bloggers, what do you consider a “major” icing event? Put some thought and numbers to it, I’m anxious to hear what you have to say as there are a lot of fantastic amateur meteorologists on this blog. If 25,000+ people are without power in the KC metro area for at least 24 hours, I’d put that in the “major” category. Agree? Disagree? Hey, it’s just my opinion and everybody has one just like everyone…well you know what I mean.

  50. Dave January 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    I appreciate your opinion, ClassyCat.

    Perhaps, we are just going to disagree with the use of word play. Hope that doesn’t stop us from being friends.

    Also, I don’t watch GL on television. I don’t watch the news, too depressing and often, too one-sided for my take.

    I do like to read the blog, not only for the information, but for the opinions of others. Interesting to note that it is rare to find anyone who may disagree with Gary. Sometimes, MowerMike…sometimes Foodl3, but rarely anyone else. Is it bad that I may disagree with him on this issue? No. I don’t believe so. Is it wrong for you to also have an opinion? No, not all.

    Perhaps the problem with our society is that we all want to be right all the time…and we are quick to dismiss the thoughts of others who aren’t in our ‘bubble.’

    Oh, well. Have a nice day and enjoy this weather event…be it minor or major.

    • Gary January 11, 2017 at 1:23 pm - Reply

      We are are allowed our opinions. And, if we have an open discussion we can learn. On the storm, do I know exactly what will happen? Nope. Is there a chance of a major ice storm. Sure there is, but I think that the chance is low based on what I am analyzing. I would put the chance at less than 90% of a major ice storm, and yes 1/2″ or more is going to be on the threshold of major. And, I am not using the word “minor”, I am using light icing, which could lead to major impacts if you are the one impacted. Minor is not a good word to use in this situation, in my opinion. Thoughts?

      The European model is the only model I have seen holding onto the below 32° air as the heavier rain moves in. But, it still has a chance of being right, I just doubt it. If it looks more likely, then guess what? We would then update the forecast. I just like to lay it out there as I see it.

      Okay, onto analyzing the new data. I am on the air at 4, 5, 6, 6:30 and 10 PM. What has happened to my job? I am on a lot. Gerard Jebaily will be helping along with Jeff Penner this afternoon, then the girls come in tomorrow to continue our team effort!

      And, one more note, even that cold Euro model has 48 degrees Sunday night. I may get that forecast on the nose yet!


      • ClassyCat January 11, 2017 at 1:27 pm - Reply

        Gary, you are correct. I think there was minor used, but you definitely changed that to light icing. I did forget that part.

      • Terry January 11, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

        TWC Euro and it says 31 degrees so how can it say 48 ?

        • waldo weather January 11, 2017 at 2:07 pm - Reply

          Yeah.. I don’t see Sunday getting above 40 at all… I see 33 as a high.

    • ClassyCat January 11, 2017 at 1:26 pm - Reply

      Dave, I don’t agree with Gary all the time. I’m simply stating a fact (not opinion) of what he has actually said or written. You can certainly have your opinion or interpretation. I stated that. I just think your opinion is not considering all the facts. Otherwise, I believe it would change. You are appearing to stop your interpretation of the word minor right there with that word. Reading what he wrote or hearing what he said (either above or on tv) would, I think, make one conclude that he considers minor to mean the amount of ice, but in no way totally dismisses possible effects on people or property. He’s stated this numerous times, but you seem to ignore that part for some reason. It’s just that minor is not as severe as major. I think that is obvious. Your next to last paragraph is right out of the Obama playbook from his recent speech. My opinion of him is not high, to say the least, but it’s an opinion.

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 2:37 pm - Reply

      Thing is, this blog isn’t where the the public gets it’s information…it’s on t.v. My only point is that Gary always explains what to expect condition-wise, weather the icing is minor or major. So, I don’t think there is any problem using the term minor if one wants too…it’s always put into context.

      • Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 2:37 pm - Reply

        lol…I said weather instead of whether…kinda funny

  51. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 1:32 pm - Reply

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t the GFS favored a western bias with the last 2 snows?

    • Clint January 11, 2017 at 1:35 pm - Reply

      You are correct, I am interested in the NAM tomorrow or even tonight

  52. Randy Keller January 11, 2017 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    why do all message boards turn into arguments? must be the sign of the times i guess? everyone here is a weather fan so why argue? keep up the great site Gary and thanks !

  53. Clint January 11, 2017 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    69 in Warrensburg time to celebrate!

  54. Clint January 11, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Looks like the biggest difference in the models is the position of the High pressure to the north.

  55. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    and the models are struggling with temps. Got colder last night than expected, and warmer now.

    • Tim January 11, 2017 at 1:49 pm - Reply

      .. and that’s what makes this so fascinating. a couple degrees could make a major difference with this event…

  56. Kai January 11, 2017 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    Not gonna lie, this warm air outside right now feels really damn great! Kind of disappointed that we are going to get cold again with possible ice.

  57. Michael Garner January 11, 2017 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    Winds are blowing hard out of th north here in Leavenworth. Don’t know when it changed but it has and you can feel the change. Will be interesting to see how deep/south this front pushes

  58. weatherfreaker January 11, 2017 at 2:23 pm - Reply

    Winter Storm Watches issued to our south all over…wonder if that will be us in KC this time tomorrow?

    • Terry January 11, 2017 at 3:00 pm - Reply

      Heard on another local station they expect us to be under a winter storm watch either later today or tomorrow morning. But I know there’s going to be someone here that would disagree with that or argue that problem.

      • Clint January 11, 2017 at 3:05 pm - Reply

        I would agree with that completely. The 18z NAM keeps us below freezing into Sunday morning and that’s as far as it goes.

  59. LSMike(Cowboys) January 11, 2017 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    I am one of the original bloggers and went to both blogger meetings and I disagree with Gary often, I think he gets a lot of modelitis way to often… that’s my take…Go Cowboys

  60. Weatherby Tom January 11, 2017 at 2:48 pm - Reply

    Seems like the Weather Services in Stl and Oklahoma issue their watches and warnings way too early.

  61. Michael Garner January 11, 2017 at 2:49 pm - Reply

    Temperature drop of 12 degrees in 45 min

  62. LSMike(Cowboys) January 11, 2017 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    NWS Kansas city…..Major Winter Storm Possible This Weekend…Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm system will impact much of the lower Missouri Valley this weekend. This feature will bring freezing rain/freezing drizzle to the area as early as Friday afternoon and continues through Sunday. The potential exists for significant widespread icing across much of Missouri and eastern Kansas with power outages, downed tree limbs, and very dangerous travel conditions.
    National Weather Service Kansas City, Missouri
    Wednesday, January 11, 2017
    Experimental Situation Report
    Click for a description of this product
    Click to evaluate this product
    4:27 AM

    •Widespread icing looks more and more likely this weekend.
    •Significant travel impacts possible across Missouri and eastern Kansas.
    •Power outages and downed tree limbs will also be a possibility.
    •Model solutions still pinning down locations of heaviest precipitation.
    •Once models converge on precipitation totals, confidence will increase on expected icing amounts.

    • Mark January 11, 2017 at 3:40 pm - Reply

      Summaries are usually shorter than the thing they are summarizing.

  63. Kurt January 11, 2017 at 3:15 pm - Reply

    Even when the forecasters at the NWS get a comfort level, people will be unhappy if they are either in or out of a warning and it does more or less than forecasted or the temps fluctuate from the forecast and less ice occurs.

    Unfortunately, we’re are a society (myself included) of complainers and bitchy people that want to know right now and don’t want to be inconvenienced by a change in scheduled or build in longer drive time and deal with a nuisance.

    Did anyone complain about it being warm the last two days? How nice it felt compared to Sunday and Monday morning? Smiley face.

    • Eric January 11, 2017 at 4:10 pm - Reply

      Oh wow that looks good. I wonder how well the Euro has been lately. Does anyone know?

  64. blue flash January 11, 2017 at 3:28 pm - Reply

    Cold front passage at Sports Complex 2:27

    • blue flash January 11, 2017 at 3:29 pm - Reply

      Sorry 3:27

  65. Kurt January 11, 2017 at 3:28 pm - Reply

    Thanks for the link Clint,

    I feel for anyone that has power issues and tree damage from this.

    Wow, that’s alot of variation in a narrow area, from .2 or .3 to 2.00 in Kansas and even just within Buchanan county .6 to less than .2, just like a thunderstorm. But depending on surfance temps and road surfance temps, look what happened with a heavy mist/drizzle in less than 20 minutes on December 16th.

    I would hope that people are much more prepared this time and think the road crews would have much more treatment down on roads before the onset.

  66. Mr. Pete January 11, 2017 at 3:38 pm - Reply

    Very windy today!!!’

  67. someweatherdude January 11, 2017 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    I don’t know if you guys ever look at these, but it shows a pretty cool cross section of the atmosphere going up over KC. You can see where we are below freezing at the surface, then above freezing up to about 700 mb, then back to below freezing — all until about 1/16.


  68. Dan January 11, 2017 at 4:05 pm - Reply

    Temp just went from 62 in Lee’s Summit to 48 in Olathe!! Thought the front was getting here later tonight??

  69. Skylar January 11, 2017 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    New GFS has about .4-.75″ of freezing rain all around the city except for a narrow but noteable hole right along I-70.


  70. APLS January 11, 2017 at 4:20 pm - Reply

    Yep, that’s a slight uptick from the last few runs. Will be interesting to see if the 0z holds that trend.

  71. Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    Wow…TWC and Accuweather are sure hyping this ice storm up for our whole area…say it could rival 2002 ice storm. WSW south of here…if it won’t cold enough to be that bad here, why would it be cold enough to be that bad south of us? I’m so confused.

  72. APLS January 11, 2017 at 4:25 pm - Reply


    It’s the media. They have nothing if they don’t have hype. It’s all about ratings. This can’t rival the 2002 storm, because it’s not going to be cold enough, long enough for it to reach that point.

    Now, if it were going to be below freezing for the entire duration, then yes, I would agree. But it’s not, so it won’t…lol

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      True, but even half as bad as 2002 would still be pretty nasty.

  73. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 4:26 pm - Reply

    So I would say the Euro and the NAM are almost identical at this point in how it ejects the storm. CMC is slightly north and west, with the GFS even further north and west. But then again as I mentioned earlier, the GFS has had a north and west bias all winter.

    • Gary H January 11, 2017 at 4:48 pm - Reply

      Euro and NAM are hi-res, which I understand handle temp profiles better then the lo-res GFS and CMC.

    • Clint January 11, 2017 at 5:22 pm - Reply

      NWS prefer the Euro

  74. Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 4:32 pm - Reply

    We should know a log more in 24 hours….hopefully….

  75. Heat Miser January 11, 2017 at 4:32 pm - Reply

    lol…i meant a lot more

  76. Craig January 11, 2017 at 4:44 pm - Reply

    This is remarkable.
    I can’t recall another time where the 10-day GFS has EVERY SQUARE INCH of the US seeing at least a small amount of measurable precipitation.


  77. Eric January 11, 2017 at 4:50 pm - Reply

    Well the Fox 4 weather blog seems to think there is an increasing chance to get a good ice storm. He of course wouldn’t pinpoint certain areas but I am curious if anything has changed much. Maybe I am looking into his blog too much or reading it incorrectly but it seems like we have a good chance for .5 or more ice. I guess we will see. Gary any updated thoughts?

    • Gary January 11, 2017 at 5:38 pm - Reply

      We are going into the 0.10″ to 0.5″ icing forecast. It is still three more days away. That’s a long time. Anything between now and Saturday morning looks extremely light. I do not favor the European model. So many blindly do. Let’s say the Euro does better 52% of the time, this means the GFS does better 48% of the time. We have to keep that in mind. Not one other model supports the Euro, so it is the outlier on the colder temps, and it still had us up to 60 degrees on Monday.


  78. someweatherdude January 11, 2017 at 4:54 pm - Reply

    Man . . . I’ve been in moderation so long, my post is going to be lost. I posted these. You can see a cross-section of the atmosphere that’s creating the mess for the weekend.


    • f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 6:23 pm - Reply

      I’m working on some model temp tables from my db tomorrow… I can do prettier!

  79. Fred Nolan January 11, 2017 at 5:12 pm - Reply

    Better go out and get your milk and bread now. With all the media hype the stores will be empty by tomorrow.

  80. Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 5:36 pm - Reply

    65 at lunch, 32 on the way home from work. I guess the cold front went thru. LoL

  81. Scottie January 11, 2017 at 6:22 pm - Reply

    Hide yo kids, hide yo wife

  82. Terry January 11, 2017 at 6:32 pm - Reply

    This blog cracks me up today. Who will be right Who will be wrong who will win !

    • Richard January 11, 2017 at 7:51 pm - Reply

      I don’t think you are the real Terry

  83. APLS January 11, 2017 at 6:37 pm - Reply

    Well Terry, that’s why they call it forecasting. It’s an educated guess. The NWS is favoring the Euro. Gary is throwing it out. He has often said that the GFS is his favorite model, so none of this is a surprise.

    But that’s how it works. Forecasters make choices. Everybody interprets data differently. Some will be right and some will be wrong.


  84. Jason January 11, 2017 at 6:46 pm - Reply

    This may have been mentioned earlier, but how windy is it suppose to be Saturday and Sunday? That would make even light icing more of an issue as far as trees down and power outages go.

  85. Joshua January 11, 2017 at 6:59 pm - Reply

    I think Gary is downplaying this event to get more people out at Arrowhead….jkjk

  86. APLS January 11, 2017 at 7:06 pm - Reply


    I am a Chiefs season ticket holder. KC doesn’t get these home playoff games often. Barring road closures on Sunday morning, Chiefs fans will be out in full force.

    Could be a nightmare getting there though, absolutely.

  87. Phillip January 11, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

    He for sure seems to be downplaying this quite a bit. Ice is ice. We don’t need a whole lot at all to cause problems. I doubt we see enough to cause downed trees or powerlines in the immediate metro, but there will still be traffic accidents. Especially with intoxicated fans leaving arrowhead Sunday 😬

  88. Patrick January 11, 2017 at 7:27 pm - Reply

    Gary, how long are the cycles this year? Or do you need to see when cycle 3 starts?

  89. Mr. Pete January 11, 2017 at 7:36 pm - Reply

    I watched Gary tonight on 41. He wasn’t hyping this up at all. For what it’s worth I think he was trying to calm everyone down.

  90. Richard January 11, 2017 at 7:48 pm - Reply

    Today a friend of mine that lives in Loveland CO was in Denver. He drove home 65 miles from the other side of Denver, and said as he pulled into his driveway a white rain started pouring out of the sky. Said it was coming down fast and hard, like a sleet snow. Said it was very strange for Colorado.
    Now he says it’s snowing like crazy. It was 62 yesterday and 60 this morning. Now it’s 22 degrees. He calls it bipolar weather.

    • Ross January 11, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

      Heard they had to shut down to Colorado ski resorts due to too much snow.

  91. Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    Ooohhh…Gary doing a Facebook live tonight at 9:00

  92. f00dl3a January 11, 2017 at 8:19 pm - Reply

    Because I can, and because I’m nerding out in many ways right now with weather and programming and just having fun.

    Today’s 18z model data, GrADS generated images, the grads script I use because quite honestly I don’t care if anyone else has it either.

    Images are in infancy. Just started doing the image / GrADS programming last 2 weeks. Will eventually get frozen precip/etc images built out. Working on doing a mass conversion of hourly weather observations from my old format importing into 4000+ MySQL tables to a single MySQL table in JSON format… doing a lot of stuff right now on my time off! Keeping busy!

    NO – I do not have access to the Euro GRIB2 data. Yet. I may try to beg. I’m not paying.

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6ScTEIoK3tPdFdockNnZGRGUkU << 18z model data
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6ScTEIoK3tPMjQ2TFl4aklqV3c << Some earlier JSON hourly weather data.

  93. Richard January 11, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    Just curious, will the weekend night time anchors and mets stay ivernight at the station if the roads are real bad Saturday night ?
    Have you ever done that

  94. Fred Nolan January 11, 2017 at 8:32 pm - Reply

    Crickets on here from Gary. Glad I dont pay for this blog.

    • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 8:40 pm - Reply

      He’s probably prepping for his 9:00 Facebook live session.

      • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 8:43 pm - Reply

        You can ask him any questions then.

    • Richard January 11, 2017 at 8:58 pm - Reply

      If you don’t pay for this blog who pays it for you ?
      And since it is free to you, then don’t complain.

  95. MMike January 11, 2017 at 8:38 pm - Reply


    A chance of a winter storm with ice accumulations, how significant is unclear at this time as it is always is from 3 days out.

    What more do you need, Fred?

    He’s explained himself plenty on here and what direction he leans.

  96. Richard January 11, 2017 at 9:00 pm - Reply

    Comments are loading very slow tonight. Is it the amount of comments causing this ? Is it just me ?

  97. Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 9:30 pm - Reply

    sounds like no big deal….it might get slick Saturday night into Sunday morning…but later in the day Sunday any ice melts as it changes to rain

  98. Phillip January 11, 2017 at 9:39 pm - Reply

    Pretty much a non event here

  99. KCWeatherBug January 11, 2017 at 9:40 pm - Reply

    I think its funny how literally everyone, including the NWS, is leaning towards this being a significant event for KC, as per usual Mr. Lezak has to be opposite of everyone else. I’ve followed this blog for many years now, and I hate to say it but Gary has come back and wrote “we missed the mark” blog posts more than “hey we had it right”.

    • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 11:06 pm - Reply

      I think Gary is usually pretty right about ice predictions.

  100. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    GFS 00z looks south again… just south of the metro

    • Waldo Weather January 11, 2017 at 9:57 pm - Reply

      Link please?

  101. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 9:59 pm - Reply

    GFS was north and west, then south… sound familiar? De ja vu to both 2-3 in snows?

    • Clint January 11, 2017 at 10:14 pm - Reply


  102. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:05 pm - Reply

    00z GFS shows KC with 0.7-0.9″ ice swiss cheese higher amounts – convective almost in nature – especially near Ottawa with 1.2-1.4″

  103. APLS January 11, 2017 at 10:11 pm - Reply

    Soo..the GFS has gone from .25 inches on the 12Z run this morning, to .75+ inches on tonight’s 0Z run.

    That’s ummm…not good.


    • Gary January 11, 2017 at 10:27 pm - Reply

      The ratio of liquid water falling to actual ice accumulation is around .33, so if we get 1/2″ of liquid water before it rises above freezing, then that will result in around 0.17″ of ice accumulation. By noon Sunday, the GFS has around 1/2″ liquid in KC, with heavier amounts to the south.

      The temperatures are critical. We have three more days everyone!


      • Michael Casteel January 11, 2017 at 10:33 pm - Reply

        Gary, you just got of the air and are already posting on blog! That awesome, you must be a multi task guru! Thanks for all you do,

        • Heat MIser January 11, 2017 at 11:18 pm - Reply

          GARY = SUPERMAN

  104. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:12 pm - Reply

    GFS shows almost the entire state of Kansas with 0.5+” ice

  105. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    00z GFS, 18z NAM, and 12z Euro, and 12z Canadian all match with the heaviest axis of ice setting up to include KC. Rates differ, but range from .7 to 1.5″

    GFS pulled the same track variations 3-4 days out with the last 2 winter events.

  106. f00dl3 January 11, 2017 at 10:36 pm - Reply

    But Gary , keep in mind we have been running 2-4 degrees colder than models with shallow arctic air.

  107. APLS January 11, 2017 at 10:37 pm - Reply


    I’m a bit confused by what you are talking about. Your above comment says “The GFS has around a half inch of liquid by noon on Sunday”.

    Here is the link to the 0z GFS for QPF by noon on Sunday. It shows over 1 inch.


  108. Clint January 11, 2017 at 10:47 pm - Reply

    Canadian also showing 1in plus ice accumulations on the south side

  109. APLS January 11, 2017 at 10:48 pm - Reply

    0Z Canadian is almost identical in QPF to the GFS. About and inch of liquid by noon on Sunday. Has almost and inch of ice by that time as well


  110. Mr. Pete January 11, 2017 at 11:08 pm - Reply

    Gonna warm up quickly after this event. I Can’t help but to think that this helps no matter what happens

Leave A Comment