350 Billion Gallons Of Water For California & They Are In A Drought?

/350 Billion Gallons Of Water For California & They Are In A Drought?

350 Billion Gallons Of Water For California & They Are In A Drought?

Good Tuesday morning bloggers,

The Models:

  • European Model: This model came out and has gone back to a major ice storm over parts of the plains. It was colder and a bit farther south. It is quite different from it’s previous run
  • Overnight GFS Model:
  • Overnight Nam Model:

A series of very wet storm systems continues to batter the west coast with the next one aiming at Southern California. What is going on with this weather pattern as this wet storm forming in the next three days may also target the drying out region over the plains?

Today’s Weather Topics & Headlines

  • Huge warm-up over night:  The temperature in Kansas City warmed up from 41° at 7 PM to 57° by 7 AM
  • California storms have filled reservoirs with 350 Billion gallons of water with tremendous rains and higher mountain snows
  • The storm that forms near Southern California Friday is being monitored closely for a potential ice storm over the plains

While California braces for the next storm and there is discussion of how this storm will impact the plains with a possible ice storm, Weather2020 is forecasting that a drought will continue to grow as we move into spring and summer. Where will it be the strongest?  This is something we are still identifying.  Take a look at this drought monitor as of last week:

1

If you look closely you may be able to see the LRC mean ridge on this drought monitor.  There is a broad ridge aloft, a long wave ridge that has been dominating the pattern since it began in October.  Just imagine drawing a mean lean through the drought areas that have been steadily growing. I will try to draw in that line and then repost this map.

Okay, the drought monitor shows increasing drought over the United States.  The drought is quite obviously taking a major “hit” this week in California, and there is a chance that one wet storm may emerge over the plains states this weekend.  There are many questions with this next storm system.

The storm system coming developing over Southern California in the next 72 hours will be fascinating to track as it moves out into the plains states. Another big factor is this strong cold front that will be moving across then northern plains tonight and the central plains on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm up ahead of this front:

4

Where you see 60 degrees, it could be closer to 70 degrees.  And then the cold blast will arrive and this will become a big factor in the potential ice storm this weekend.

Let’s look at the weekend storm system:

The models are all over the place. Seriously, ridiculously, all over the place. The European Model just came out with this ice forecast:

screen-shot-2017-01-10-at-6-45-56-am

Look at what this same model had in one of the runs from yesterday:

2

Look at these two forecast maps I just posted. The European Model went from modeling a major ice storm down to a much more minor one.

We have to pay close attention to this possibility because the ingredients are there for an ice storm.  I wouldn’t necessarily start preparing for a major ice storm yet. We have time to see where the models are trending.  By Wednesday or Thursday it should become more apparent how this storm will be coming together. Right now it is just too early and there are way too many different model forecasts with widely differing forecast results.

LRC Thoughts

Some of you have asked me to go more in-depth into this weekend storm system, and I am trying to, but to get specific at this point is just impossible. And, others have wondered about the LRC and how it helps. The LRC is doing incredible. The pattern is cycling regularly. It is just absolutely fascinating and it does help. Weather2020 forecasted this potential storm system, but we just don’t know the specifics until we get closer. The LRC is capable of helping us with major impacting events.  Last year our automated system forecasted the extreme flooding event in Louisiana.  The part of the pattern cycling through in this next week is directly related to the part of the pattern  that cycled through in mid-November.  And, then there was a big warm-up before and afterwards, and there is a big warm-up  forecast afterwards again for next week, and of course we are in the big warm-up ahead of this system this morning.  My point is that the LRC is an incredible tool, but when there is a storm such as this next one we will still have to use other methods of forecasting in combination with our knowledge of the LRC to make the most accurate forecast possible.

The “Players” For This Storm

  • Player #1: A strong cold front will develop and blast south on Wednesday into Thursday
  • Player #2: The Southern California storm that forms on Friday has to be monitored closely
  • Player #3: Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico

How will this all come together?  Let’s begin with this mornings Pacific cold front:

screen-shot-2017-01-10-at-7-25-13-am

This blue line shows the cold front approaching KC this morning. A cold rain was in progress near the Missouri/Iowa border as I was writing this at 7 AM.  This front will move through, but then it will incredibly fall apart and dissipate later today and tonight in response to another wave approaching the plains.

The stronger front will be organizing tonight and Wednesday. Kansas City could jump well into the 60s ahead of this developing front. And, then the front will blast south Wednesday night placing a much colder and drier air mass in place ahead of the storm system.

namconus_td2m_us_46

You can see ingredient #3 in my list on this map. There is a tremendous amount of moisture available for this system for a mid-January storm.  These are the dew points in the 60s with even higher dew points over the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will not lack moisture.

So, the other ingredient on my list is the storm itself in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Where will it track? How strong will it be? These factors will decide what the temperatures will do and what impacts this storm will have and this is something that will come more into focus in the next day or two. Tomorrow I will get more specific on timing and other features.

Have a great day. I think we can all say that this system has our attention. Thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-01-11T00:37:18+00:00 January 10th, 2017|General|105 Comments

105 Comments

  1. Alex Pickman January 10, 2017 at 3:57 am - Reply

    Feels amazing outside. 38° when I went to work at 6pm last night…now its 51° at around 4am. Two more hours left of work. Snow is all but melted through the night.

    Lets bring on this next system! We have been due for a major Ice Storm Storm around here. I remember the 2002 storm vividly. We had 3″ of ice in Marceline, MO. I was in Middle School at the time, but that Ice Storm was one to remember. School let out at 12:30 that afternoon, and I remember walking home as it started drizzling. Temperature was 27° (I remember checking the thermometer before leaving). Once my parents got off work, the freezing rain picked up. We went to the Catholic School for the Spaghetti Dinner, and I remember by the time we were slowly headed back home, transforners were already blowing up. I sat on the back deck in the freezing rain for a few hours that night, just watching, and listening. It was amazing….seeing the power flashes light up in the distance across town, and the constant cracking sound of trees, and branches coming down. Truly a surreal experience, and Im glad I witnessed it, as only 10 miles away in Brookfield, they wound up with 6 inches of snow on top a little bit of ice. That band of ice was narrow, but produced some big time ice.

    I know how devastating they are, but I cant help my love for Huge snowstorms, and Huge Ice Storms. They fascinate me. Ive said for a while we are overdue for a big one. Will this be it? Who knows at this point, but its been 14 years since the last truly whopper of an Ice Storm.

    Ive got to witness my 2 favorite winter weather events in Marceline. The 2002 mega Ice Storm, and the Feb 1, 2011 Blizzard, where I got to witness a 22″ blizzard that set Marceline’s daily snowfall record.

    Hopefully this fairly quiet pattern has a twist up its sleeve as we head into Feburary. Maybe even this storm?

  2. Alex Pickman January 10, 2017 at 4:54 am - Reply

    06z GFS is quite impressive with ice accumulations. This is going to be fascinating to watch unfold. Cant wait for the High Res models to get ahold of this.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011006&fh=240&r=us_c&dpdt=

  3. Ross January 10, 2017 at 6:26 am - Reply

    I remember the ice storm vividly as well and was not to fond of it. My wife was in the hospital and I remember leaving late to go home and check on our dog and when I went out to the car, a tree was broken and gently leaning over my car. I crept home and skated in the front door to find the power out. It was out for three days in N. OP. Next day, took my dog to get boarded and stayed at a friend’s house with power. Praying for a small icing to no icing event. Too much going on this weekend!

  4. Gary H January 10, 2017 at 6:35 am - Reply

    I remember the 2002 ice storm too. Was out of power for a week in Olathe. Work was out for two weeks.

  5. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 6:53 am - Reply

    Gary’s forecast last night at 10 sounded like he thought we would not have any ice at all and there is nothing to worry about, Chiefs would be playing in rain with temps in the 40s

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 7:40 am - Reply

      I may be “wish casting” a bit, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities. I don’t wishcast really. I just try to be rather specific at times. Kansas City has been shown to be one of the toughest places to forecast the weather. This storm shows why. It could easily jump to near 50 degrees on Sunday night, or it could be a significant ice storm. Which one is it going to be, or will it line up somewhere in between. We just don’t know for sure yet.

      Gary

  6. Rockdoc January 10, 2017 at 7:26 am - Reply

    Good Morning Gary. Wow, I do not envy you mets with this type of weather set up. Danged if you do, danged if you don’t. The freezing temperature line and where it sets up is going to be dicey at best. The models keep going back and forth on this resulting in different amounts of ice and rain. Looks like soundings and T-skew charts are going to get a workout.

    I still find it fascinating that the little swirl out by Alaska will go around the other low and then drop south towards California to become our storm. Well with all of the moisture that will get pulled northwards, the drought should shrink in our area! Have a Great Day Everybody!

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 7:38 am - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      Wasn’t that fascinating, but it is so true. That little system moving west is literally the beginning of what will be our storm system over the plains. That fact alone should have us take a deep breath.

      Being a meteorologist forecasting the weather for just Kansas City is certainly going to be, already is a bit stressful. I think you may know how much pressure I put on myself and our team/teams (KSHB and Weather2020) to get these accurately predicted. The criticism comes with the territory, but I know at the end of the day that we do our best and we usually get it right. This one is a bigger challenge than usual. We have a few days to analyze and lay it out there.

      Thank you for the support, understanding, and insight that you and other bloggers provide.

      Gary

  7. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 8:18 am - Reply

    For what it’s worth, GFS has been holding to it’s guns for the most part. 1/2″ of ice or so.

  8. 2doghouse January 10, 2017 at 8:29 am - Reply

    Gary
    I 100% get needing to wait a day or so for sake of accuracy. But at what point do you make a call for the purpose of safety? Wouldn’t it be better to be wrong and have people over prepared? Then say waiting til Thursday and then the general public is scrambling for supplies etc. do you get pressure from the station to commit? I am curious

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:36 am - Reply

      Yes, I think that tomorrow would be that day. If it continues to threaten being a potential ice storm, three days of preparation time will help. So, good point. But, it is still a bit early when this storm does not yet exist.

      Gary

  9. Mr. Pete January 10, 2017 at 8:31 am - Reply

    I’m still really confused on what day this potential ice storm is supposed to hit us.

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

      Pete,

      Friday night at the earliest, then there is a chance Saturday and Sunday, but this depends on the track and how this system forms near San Diego.

      Gary

  10. Tim January 10, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    Gary- good luck this week with forecasting. I absolutely do not envy you at all in this scenario with the models not being overly consistent. Don’t beat yourself up if you can’t forecast this one ahead of time. The most important thing is the possibility of a major event is already on the radar for most people now, and that awareness is crucial. At the end of the day now-casting starting on Friday may be the only accurate way to forecast.

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:37 am - Reply

      Thanks Tim.

      Gary

  11. Clint January 10, 2017 at 8:42 am - Reply

    The NAM should help out a little today, but early returns look a little icy

    • Tim January 10, 2017 at 8:48 am - Reply

      That it is. Should be interesting to see the runs this afternoon and evening.

  12. Clint January 10, 2017 at 8:45 am - Reply

    The NAM only catching the very beginning of the possible event.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011012&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

      The NAM did the best of all of the models with the very small icing event we had a few weeks ago. By tomorrow we will pay particularly close attention to this model.

      Gary

  13. Clint January 10, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

    I agree it seems to always handle these types of systems very well. In my opinion it’s the best at forecasting the thermal profiles

  14. Dan January 10, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Not so fast on the drought. This pattern may bring plenty of rain in the spring and summer. Last two years not much in cycles 1&2, but did ok afterwards in cycles 3&4. What’s it going to take to wipe away the California drought.

  15. Urbanity January 10, 2017 at 9:19 am - Reply

    Gary, just meteorology question here, if you have 1033MB High over Utah, and a 1025H over northeast Iowa, and a moisture laden weak low over central/southern Oklahoma, would that create a situation where moisture is suppressed to the south because the southward flow is stronger from the 1033H than the 1025H, given that the centered location between the two highs is for this dicussion right over Kansas Highway 135.

    On a side note, Kansas weather is like an ancient chinese torture ritual, fans of accurate forecasts 4-5 days out are the victims.

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

      You are asking a really complex question, and then your statement leaves us a lot to think about. Good job. There is an inverted trough between the two highs. It will depend on the strength of that upper level system, and where it tracks which will end up deciding how the surface temperatures will respond, amongst other factors.

      Gary

  16. Ksukat January 10, 2017 at 9:33 am - Reply

    Gary,

    At four o’clock and ten o’clock news yesterday.
    You seemed felt that we would have a light icing event Friday. Then Sunday would be dry. Are you still leaning in this direction? Or are the models beginning to change your thoughts.

  17. Dan M. January 10, 2017 at 9:42 am - Reply

    Saw something this morning that models were predicting temps at 1 mile up to be in the 40’s while surface temps in the middle 20’s Friday night and Saturday. Since we are only talking about a 5,000 foot difference with a 20 degree drop in temps, does this seem reasonable? At what point would these warmer temps mix down? And as a more general question, at what point would freezing rain change to sleet? I can see how a system like this would be hard to forecast as a few degrees can change the precipitation type.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

      Dan – if the surface is indeed that cold, the warmer air will have a tough time “mixing”. That cold layer will be much more dense, making it favor the surface, while the warmer air will be buoyant and favor the higher atmospheric levels. That’s why when the temps stratify in the atmoshere, they tend to stay stratified.

      • Dan M. January 10, 2017 at 10:28 am - Reply

        Thanks REAL. That makes sense as I wasn’t considering the density. Still a 20 degree difference in the first 5000 feet seems odd.

  18. Mark January 10, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

    I am having a hard time reconciling a 60 day cycle down here in AR. Counting back 60 days in the big warm up in Dec and now again doesn’t bring up similar weather. On my calendar I can see it but the last time I had marked down the similar weather is off by 10 days or so.

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

      Be careful. This is another different solution. Either way, we have a fun storm to track. Some icing is likely. There are still many questions. Let’s see how all of the models come in first.

      This GFS has it up to 40 degrees by 6 AM Monday. This is going to be quite fascinating.

      Gary

  19. MMike January 10, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

    Gary,

    If that ULL goes further SE then what the current GFS is showing, we go back into a snow event Monday morning?? It appears there will be a heavy snow band on the NW side of it. This current run of the GFS has maybe the second slug of moisture coming in during the second half? Maybe we catch the first half of Sunday dry? That would be huge

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

      It’s so warm aloft Mike, I just don’t think this storm has much of a potential to create snow in our area. It is something to keep track of, however.

      Gary

  20. Terry January 10, 2017 at 10:49 am - Reply

    Gary or someone how much I should get before it starts affecting the power?

    • Terry January 10, 2017 at 10:50 am - Reply

      It supposed to say ice event before it affects the power?

    • Clint January 10, 2017 at 10:56 am - Reply

      Could be wrong but I believe ice amounts of .25 or more

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 11:46 am - Reply

      Power lines can withstand some ice. But if strong wind is thrown in there on top of the ice, that is when they come down. And branches that fall onto lines

  21. Big Papa POOF January 10, 2017 at 10:51 am - Reply

    POOF POOF POOF

    • Joe January 10, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

      LoL

  22. APLS January 10, 2017 at 10:59 am - Reply

    Man, this is a forecasting nightmare. 12z Canadian model has it warming into the mid 50’s(!!!!)by 7am on Monday. The track of both the 12Z GFS and Canadian, combined with last night 0Z run of the Euro, have shown a considerable shift west in the overall track. This would allow for significant warming out ahead of the storm, which would cause any icing issues to be only short lived.

    There is most likely going to be “some” icing over most of the viewing area. The longer it holds off, the better for everyone. This certainly doesn’t at all look like a major ice storm ala 2002, as with that storm, the surface temps stayed well below freezing for a long duration. That’s not the case with this storm. The temperature profiles will not allow for 2-3 inches of FZRA.

    This is excellent news. Nobody needs that. Will see how it trends..

    Adam

  23. Phillip January 10, 2017 at 11:57 am - Reply

    Too early to make a call like that. ^ You can never be that sure this far out when the storm is going to change tracks a little here and there until it gets into the plains. Like Gary said, we’ll know more in the next day or two. Needless to say, this is going to be exciting to watch and track the next couple days!

  24. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    Canadian still shows 1/2 – 1″ of ice before it switches over, even with the storm way out west. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011012/gfs_apcpn_ncus_22.png

    Everything after that forecast hour is rain

  25. weatherfreaker January 10, 2017 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    I was reading last night about the 2002 ice storm. It stated that at the time, they did not know exactly how bad it would be until about 24 hours or a little more before hand. It made me think that in 15 years, we really don’t seem to have great confidence in most cases much earlier than we did 15 years ago. We always talk on this blog about how it really takes until about a day or two before a pending event for us to really know the expected severity of this type of event…understandable, but interesting in a time now when we assume our “advanced” technology gives us “more knowledge” than we had 15 years ago. Just an interesting thought…

    • f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 12:30 pm - Reply

      Totally agree. Are we better off forecasting now than then? It’s easier than ever to get the info, but the info is still guesswork.

    • Rockdoc January 10, 2017 at 12:35 pm - Reply

      I think this type of storm is a little different due to the temperature column and what will form (snow, sleet, ice or rain). They need soundings from the weather balloons close to the time frame of the storm in order to determine exactly where the cold layer sets up below the warmer air. Also what the winds are through the atmosphere. That’s what makes this so dicey. The computer programs are more robust compared to 15 years ago, so I think there will be a higher level of confidence more than 0.5-1 day out.

      I think that with the LRC Gary knew we would be getting a storm in here about this time……given the differences in season between LRC #1 and LRC #2, the exact setup may not be known 12 weeks out. Hope this makes sense.

      • Gary January 10, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

        Rockdoc and all other bloggers,

        Here is my quick analysis of all of the models. First take away: We just got a different solution, but with a strong trend in one direction: Slower and more cut-off. We have to see if this trend continues. What does this mean? The chance of any major ice storm is going way down. In my mind it was already low. It is not non existent, but the chance of a major ice storm has gone down, especially for KC, but also for surrounding areas. Takeaway number 2: The chance of a more minor icing is still somewhat moderate to high, but I am talking fairly low amounts of ice, but this can still be an impact. Takeaway number 3: The chance of a heavy rain event Monday is higher, but temperatures are rising well above freezing by this time frame.

        Again, this is still three to six days out. This is why I like to wait and see before making conclusions. The other sources spelling doom and gloom ice storm are fine if you want to get the message out. But, it may have been premature. Thank you for letting me think out loud here. I am preparing for how I will describe this on the air tonight beginning at 4 PM. I am planning on being focused and to the point on these things.

        It still is quite fascinating and still in motion.

        Gary

        • MMike January 10, 2017 at 1:09 pm - Reply

          “The other sources spelling doom and gloom ice storm are fine if you want to get the message out”

          What sources….from what I’ve seen, they’re doing the same thing you are…model watching. They have mentioned the potential of ice just like you have.

        • Clint January 10, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

          What in your opinion constitutes a major ice storm?

          • Gary January 10, 2017 at 3:31 pm - Reply

            A major ice storm is one that will cause wide spread power outages for days, sheets of ice on the roads, trees and powerlines down. This would take accumulations of ice approaching 3/4″ or 1″ or more on these surfaces.

            I am going to call this a light icing event possible. I don’t like using minor, as I have in the past. It is never minor for the person that falls and breaks their arm, or gets in an accident.

            Gary

  26. Rockdoc January 10, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    I’ll post this again since there is a lot of talk about issues with ice. Good article with information about different thicknesses of ice, and what the potential effects are. Also good graphics showing how the air temperatures through the different layers of the atmosphere can cause the formation of snow, sleet, ice and rain.

    As Richard has indicated, the winds also come into play. Looking at the 12z run, surface winds stay light at around 5 kt, but bump up a little to 10 kt Saturday night and maybe some on Sunday. We don’t want to see ice be >0.5 inches for sure! 0.25 – 0.5 inches can cause some power outages, and up to 0.25 inches of ice is considered to be a nuisance. Hopefully the winds stay down!

    https://weather.com/news/news/ice-storm-damage-impacts-20121123

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 2:26 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc
      Good link. Thanks. Good tips about food safety too.

  27. jeffinks January 10, 2017 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    The Ice storm in 2002 was bad. Lost power for a week. Trees had fallen on roof. Funny thing is I had to move from the great city of KC to Wichita and I bought a house here in Oct of 04 Jan of 06 we had a bad ice storm here and had no power for aweek and trees on the roof. I seem too attacked Ice for some reason and I love snow and we do not seem to get much where ever i live.

  28. Jason January 10, 2017 at 1:21 pm - Reply

    Thanks for the update Gary.

  29. Terry January 10, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    Gary that low pressure in Southwest does not look like a more cut-off low to me because it doesn’t sit there and comes right out of the Southwest to the northeast a 100 to 150 miles SE of KC. So how can you say it looks more like That ?

  30. Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 2:08 pm - Reply

    I only get excited for snow. Ice sucks..who wants that. Sounds like it will probably a be a fairly minor icing event for us luckily, then rain (in January…god winter sucks here for snow lovers). On to the next…want snow.

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      Heat Miser
      lol
      It is always onto the next around here.
      On to the next storm. On to the next cycle.
      But by then it will be on to the next LRC.
      So ready for the new LRC if you are a snow lover. I am

  31. Dave January 10, 2017 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Looks like a cold January rain.

    That’s fun.

    Kansas City weather is great.

    Not really.

  32. APLS January 10, 2017 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    New to the blog. Been fun to enjoy the experience!

    Completely agree with Gary’s assessment. Zero need for alarm bells here. Unless there is a drastic change, this looks like a minor event, with temps warming above freezing.

    12Z Euro has some sleet Friday evening into Saturday morning, with more sleet possible Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, before changing over to rain for Sunday. There is some freezing rain on the south side of the metro, but likely less than .25.

    I’m with Heat Miser. Ice really does suck. Its zero fun for anyone. I don’t root for these. Now, if this were a snowstorm….Ha!

  33. Snow Miser January 10, 2017 at 2:42 pm - Reply
    • Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 3:41 pm - Reply

      Now THAT is what I call a snowstorm. Snow Miser, make it so!!!!

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2017 at 3:53 pm - Reply

        That would kill many people as they tried to shovel that, including me. That would be aweful!

        • Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 4:01 pm - Reply

          Use a snow plow

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

        I’d like to point out quite a few people had given up on this LRC as having no signature storms. Well, it appears we have a strong case for signature storm #1. It took until cycle #2 to reveal itself. I wouldn’t be surprised to have another couple of these sneak up here in cycle 2, not making any calls but maybe we have hope for a couple systems we can hang our hat on in between M.R. (Mean Ridge) cycles. I especially like the name Mean Ridge, it fits perfectly as I picture a mean old ridge making it dry, sorta like a drought grinch character lol

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2017 at 7:35 pm - Reply

        Heady being in Joplin makes forecasts for NE OK. So he’s probably covering all the bases and just saying region may experience ice anytime after later Thursday. The precip will be streaming in from the SW, so those areas will experience ice several hours to even a full day before we do. KC shouldn’t have any issues until Friday pm

        • Richard January 10, 2017 at 7:57 pm - Reply

          Wish there was a way to show his graphic here. It shows KC in the moderate purple area and says Thursday thru Saturday.
          Ok, so he is sjowing all areas that get in that purple during the 36 hr timeframe

  34. Mr. Pete January 10, 2017 at 2:49 pm - Reply

    No ice storm please. There is just nothing enjoyable about them, at all.

  35. MIke January 10, 2017 at 2:56 pm - Reply

    12Z EURO shows around 1.5″ of moisture for the KC Metro are from Friday to next Tuesday. We all could use the moisture. Hopefully all rain

    • Snow Miser January 10, 2017 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      Yeah, but just imagine if that was all snow. 15 inches! Or thereabouts.

      • Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 3:42 pm - Reply

        snow miser…work your magic and make it happen

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 3:48 pm - Reply

      But the question is when will most of that 1.5″ fall ? During 20 degree temps or after it gets above freezing ? Gary said it dould be slowing down. Meaning most of it might come after it goes bove freezing, right ?

  36. REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2017 at 3:29 pm - Reply

    Drought? Amazing, my creek is still running and ponds are all at 95% capacity or greater. The difference between a summer drought with the heat and excessive evaporation rates and a winter drought are significant. I haven’t even noticed this drought, which is my mind isn’t a drought at all. Winters are notoriously dry around here, so I’m not to worried about these winter time drought conditions lol

    • Three7s January 10, 2017 at 3:53 pm - Reply

      And it’s not like we haven’t had any precip at all. We’ve had a couple of solid rains and a couple of snows that really add up. We’re getting far more precip than last year’s winter, IMO.

  37. Fred Nolan January 10, 2017 at 3:44 pm - Reply

    Ice, Ice baby…..sorry couldnt resist.

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 4:05 pm - Reply

      Seems to be slowing down like Gary said.
      Getting ready to watch him on kshb now

  38. Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    Weatherbell in the 7 day map snows a decent amount of snow/ice on the ground for our whole area and cold temps

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:14 pm - Reply

      Weatherbell predicted that the second half of January would be brutally cold. When I was on Weather Brains four weeks ago, they read that forecast and I said, “he will be wrong”. I will get the clip next week as they will be wrong. They also said we would have six inches on the ground for Christmas. Wrong again. It’s incredible that difference we will be making in the coming year/years when our technology is weighted in.

      So, on their 7 day map…..wrong once again. But, for some reason everyone loves looking at wrong forecasts.

      Gary

  39. APLS January 10, 2017 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    18Z GFS show about a quarter inch of ice falling Saturday into Saturday night. Cold rain on Sunday and temps warming to near or above 50 degrees by early Monday morning.

    Total storm QPF is over 1 inch with southern parts of the viewing area near or over 2 inches.

    What a waste of a winter storm! lol

    • MIke January 10, 2017 at 4:33 pm - Reply

      Not a waste at all. I really don’t know many people who would want that much moisture in the form of ice. Snow on the other hand would be fun!

      • Three7s January 10, 2017 at 4:43 pm - Reply

        I could only imagine that much snow falling during the Chiefs game. It would be amazing.

  40. APLS January 10, 2017 at 5:00 pm - Reply

    Correct, Mike. It’s not a waste from a moisture standpoint, but from a standpoint that it’s January, and most of this will be plain ole’ rain.

    Snow would be great. The fact that it’s not, is disappointing to winter enthusiasts!

  41. Brian C January 10, 2017 at 5:04 pm - Reply

    I just want some decent moisture. My ponds are needing some runoff

  42. David January 10, 2017 at 5:05 pm - Reply

    Looks like a minor event. Lots hype (weather channel, accuweather, etc.). They tend to focus on headlining the potential vs. reality. We will get a little ice and then a cold rain.

  43. Eric M Rothrock January 10, 2017 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    How are the models looking this evening? Man I know alot of you don’t want a ice storm but I’ll take anything! I would love a nice ice storm. I love the way it looks when ice is covering everything. It’s so beautiful! Any chance this could pan out to be a good ice storm despite it trending towards a warmer solution?

  44. Richard January 10, 2017 at 7:15 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    On facebook there is a weather2020 post that retweeted Doug Heady with a graphic showing moderate ice here it says Thursday thru Saturday.
    I thought it was not gong to start here until Friday. Why does he show Thursday ?
    It is on facebook weather 2020 page

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:10 pm - Reply

      There is a very small fast moving system that could produce a quick band of freezing light rain early Thursday. Let’s see what the new data shows.

      GAry

  45. Terry January 10, 2017 at 7:41 pm - Reply

    A local station Ch 5 is still saying a possible ice storm this weekend still starting Friday night through Sunday morning and may turn is to Rain then back to freezing rain Sunday night temperatures hugging around the freezing mark or just slightly above.

    • Richard January 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm - Reply

      Terry
      That is what Gary has said except for the freezing rain Sunday night.
      Why are you quoting channel 5 ? Just curious

  46. stl78 January 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm - Reply

    It’s only tues. I will put more stock in the nam when it can fully sample storm

  47. Kurt January 10, 2017 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    I was amazed how fast we lost the cold air again after artic cold over the weekend. This happens a lot in this lrc. Wait an see if we get moisture and how much and what the temps are going to be

  48. blue flash January 10, 2017 at 8:01 pm - Reply

    Can anyone explain what happened with the wind today? When I went out at 2:00 today the wind was howling…20 gusting to 30. When I left at 4:30 it was dead calm. I’ve rarely seen such a rapid change.

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      The front died to our south. It was expected and really fascinating and now the winds are already returning to the south. What a pattern to track this wild weather.

      Gary

      • blue flash January 10, 2017 at 8:30 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary…..its like somebody turned off the switch……

  49. Brian C January 10, 2017 at 8:04 pm - Reply

    Ha Terry c’mon now you can’t mention competitors here. It’s not going to snow a lot and that’s all I care about

    • Heat MIser January 10, 2017 at 10:41 pm - Reply

      You can mention competitors here…it was on the KSHB blog that you couldn’t do that.

  50. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    It’s already down to 30 at Olathe JoCo. Wasn’t tonight’s low supposed to be 34? 00z GFS said 35 at init, NAM 38, RAP 38 – for ~8pm. If temps are unpredictable now, how can we even trust anything past WED AM? Even the initiation has a 4-9 degree error!

    • Gary January 10, 2017 at 10:26 pm - Reply

      It’s going up big time by sunrise.

      Gary

  51. Skylar January 10, 2017 at 10:17 pm - Reply

    Tonight’s GFS is looking worse for areas to the west and north, with a skinny but long strip of over 2″ of ice being depicted again. New NAM was also a bit wetter for the same time frames (78/84).

  52. Fred Nolan January 10, 2017 at 10:23 pm - Reply

    Arent the winds supposed to return tomorrow as well?

  53. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    So if the models had a 4-9 degree initiation error for right now, we may not get to the low 60s tomorrow, couldn’t this cold front tomorrow drop us colder, and force the storm to dig further south or slow down, creating more overrunning. There are still tons of questions to this thing.

  54. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 10:44 pm - Reply

    00z Canadian slams us … 1.2-1.7″ ice

    • Clint January 10, 2017 at 10:47 pm - Reply

      Brings the low further east right through missouri. Hope the Canadian is drunk!

  55. f00dl3 January 10, 2017 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    Also handles current temp trends better

  56. Alex Pickman January 10, 2017 at 11:18 pm - Reply

    Canadian is impressive. Energy still off shore, though. Will have a much better idea once tbe models can sample the system inland. Ingredients are there, but there are Sooo many variables that have to come together. Thermal Profiles are critical with this. Should be fun to watch the models adjust tomorrow

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011100&fh=180&r=us_c&dpdt=

  57. APLS January 10, 2017 at 11:30 pm - Reply

    Agreed, Alex. Tomorrow we should hope to get a better handle on things. Right now, the 0Z Canadian is an outlier. Will it become a trend? Model runs still haven’t really shown a consistent track beyond about 90 hours or so.

    Profiles and track will be key to see tomorrow. Hoping for better consistency.

    Adam

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