The West Coast Gets Blasted & This Weeks Weather Pattern

/The West Coast Gets Blasted & This Weeks Weather Pattern

The West Coast Gets Blasted & This Weeks Weather Pattern

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

sat_nhemi_ir4

Los Angeles, CA is now in the path of the most recent Pacific storm system. As you can see on the above infrared satellite photo from 7:30 AM this morning, there is a rather thick band of moisture centered on Southern California this morning. The main storm is off the Oregon coast. What is yet another amazing fact is that this very wet season near the west coast is not in an El Niño year. This was one of my points last winter when we accurately predicted that Southern California would have another dry winter despite all of the El Niño hype. This year, they are more in the path of these systems.

There is a lot to go over on this Monday.  The week will begin with a big warming trend over much of the United States. A potential weekend storm has our attention today. Where is it now? It doesn’t exist and will eventually develop depending on many other factors that are really all over the place this morning. I went back and forth over last nights GFS model and found this little piece of seemingly insignificant energy near the Inside Passage of Alaska. That little thing rotates around that big upper low, and some energy comes in from the central Pacific Ocean later this week and this is what will end up being the beginning of what could be an impacting storm system across the plains:

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This energy will gradually evolve and carve out a possible storm system. There are other important factors. One of the biggest factors is a strong cold front that will move across Wednesday night and Thursday, and then the storm is timed to produce a possible ice storm? It has to be discussed as it could have major impacts in the areas that could experience this, as you can see below:

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The forecasts from these models have been varying greatly from model run to model run. The fact that this storm is not even going to begin showing up on the models until around Friday should leave us with some perspective here. Let’s be patient as there is still quite a lot that must happen between now and Friday before we get too specific.

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The latest GFS, this mornings model run, was farther south and a bit slower. We have many days, and many more solutions to take a look at before we have to really seriously prepare for whatever this is going to become?

Have a great day!

Gary

2017-01-10T00:01:15+00:00 January 9th, 2017|General|86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel January 9, 2017 at 7:25 am - Reply

    Wow I hope that storm doesn’t produce can you imagine that much ice there would be powerlines down everywhere ! Let’s pray for snow instead much easier to remove and enjoy have a great week bloggers!
    Michael

  2. Steve January 9, 2017 at 7:26 am - Reply

    Gary,
    As of now it looks like kc is on the edge of it. Looks to be more south of us. We will get some but not as much as south of us?

    • Heat Miser January 9, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

      As Gary said, way to soon to tell exactly where it will track. In a few days mabye we’ll get an idea…

  3. f00dl3 January 9, 2017 at 7:29 am - Reply

    Latest GFS has us closer to the core.

    Historically this type of setup is an Icy one in this part of the country. Not saying it’s going to happen, but historically speaking there are huge red flags right now.

    • Miss Jess January 9, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

      Can you share that link? Thanks!

  4. Mr. Pete January 9, 2017 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Power could be out for days in that scenario. Horrible!!!

  5. Three7s January 9, 2017 at 8:17 am - Reply

    Most of the models are still favoring this storm starting on Sunday. Are you still favoring the latter solution, Gary?

    • Gary January 9, 2017 at 8:21 am - Reply

      I am not favoring any solution yet. This storm is so far away from forming and I it is just too early.

      Gary

      • Richard January 9, 2017 at 11:38 am - Reply

        Sorry Gary
        Guess I was typing my comment below as you were posting this one

  6. Richard January 9, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Not good
    So if more than one model comes up with the early solution in a day or two from now is that when you start leaning in that direction too Gary ?
    I recall last week you saying not the 14th, but the 17th yes.

    • Three7s January 9, 2017 at 10:28 am - Reply

      That’s what I was referring to in my previous comment.

    • Heat Miser January 9, 2017 at 10:34 am - Reply

      Naw….the models have been horrible with exact path more than 3 days out. We might have a better idea late this week.

  7. Jason January 9, 2017 at 8:27 am - Reply

    It’s still way too early to trust any of these models as we have seen with previous storms. Some have called for over a foot of snow and we get 1″. Will be interesting to watch as the days progress. Hoping it doesn’t verify.

  8. f00dl3 January 9, 2017 at 8:40 am - Reply
    • Rockdoc January 9, 2017 at 8:59 am - Reply

      Good morning f00dl3. I think that one is too early. That’s for November 4th. Can you pull up the maps for November 14-18th? I think the 18th map shows it but the trough was not as deep. I pulled up the archived satellite map with surface info and it was November 18th when we had rain and the surface low was just to the south of KC!

  9. Rockdoc January 9, 2017 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Good Monday Morning Gary. I sure hope this storm does not verify. I remember the ice storm that hit January 30, 2002! For those who did not live here I found a link to some photos.

    http://fox4kc.com/2012/01/30/pictures-10-year-anniversary-of-epic-ice-storm/

    In looking at the 0z and 6z GFS model runs it seems like we will have some snow and sleet Friday evening into early Saturday. The major ice comes in Saturday evening lasting into Sunday morning. Both the 925mb and 850mb layers are above freezing while the surface temps are in the upper 20s until Sunday morning when it goes above freezing. This is quite a column of warm air with winds coming from the south. Maybe the moisture conveyor belt! It looks like it will change over to rain before noon so a soggy, chilly day for the Chiefs.

    As you said, the storm has yet to form. It will be interesting to watch Alaska’s gift to the Central Plains evolve. I just hope the surface low either drops further south or scoots to the north out in Kansas. That being said, the low on November 18th was just to our south before it hooked and exited north into Iowa.

    Time to start getting more wood for the fireplace just in case…Lol….

  10. Richard January 9, 2017 at 10:05 am - Reply

    Gary,
    Still analyzing ?

  11. Hunter January 9, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply

    It’s coming. Brace yourselves!

    • Dobber January 9, 2017 at 11:19 am - Reply

      Troll on hunter

    • MIke January 9, 2017 at 11:45 am - Reply

      I truly cant believe all of the hate that is on this blog. Why would some of you want to be so disrespectful to Gary or other people on the blog? If I knew some of your real names I would pray for you to be a nicer person in life and treat other people with dignity and respect. Just because it is an open forum doesn’t give any of us the right to be cruel. I realize we have young people and old people on the blog but enough is enough. Please keep your demeaning comments to yourself and learn to get involved in your community in a positive way. Put an end to the HATE

      Mike

      • Heat Miser January 9, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

        I think Hunter is REALLY freaking out…panicking. I think I just saw him at the grocery store buying milk and bread. LoL

    • CRW January 9, 2017 at 9:06 pm - Reply

      In ten days…

  12. Rockdoc January 9, 2017 at 11:43 am - Reply

    Dobber, I wonder if Hunter is from Troll Antarctica? There is a weather station there at the Norwegian research station. 😄

    https://www.wunderground.com/aq/troll

  13. Dan M. January 9, 2017 at 11:45 am - Reply

    Gary can you focus more thoughts on Friday and Saturday time frame? While I understand the focus on Sunday, there are numerous activities (College games in Lawrence and Manhattan, travel, etc.) on Saturday that will effect numerous people. Since this is 4-5 days out, a good understanding of your thoughts on those days would be very beneficial as to the timing of the possible storm.

    • Gary January 9, 2017 at 12:10 pm - Reply

      Dan,

      I will. The Canadian model just came out with a dry weekend. The GFS is trending that way. The European model has not done well this season predicting any of these in our area, well it has predicted some big wet systems that don’t happen. So we must patiently wait another day. We just know there is a chance of storm and we just have to leave it at this.

      To answer Humedude, yes we are using the LRC all of the time. We are getting better and better at our forecasts. And, we have automated these forecasts. This is what we launched with our new site. We now have a forecast for highs, lows, HDDs, CDDs, GDDs and more on the site. For your farm we have this from now through September already. It is being tested and it is doing quite well. Your criticism is understandable. But, let me put it this way and I know you have experienced it before. In winters where we have truly functional storm systems, the LRC can help much more. When you have another winter like this one where there are very few big storm systems near KC, the LRC tells you that it most likely will be another storm that doesn’t quite come together. So, it helps more than you are giving it credit for, and I discuss it all of the time. I would rather get very excited about this weekend system. It still has a chance of coming together and if it does we will have a major problem. But, I still lean against anything major because this is this years LRC near KC. So, you aren’t asking for too much. We are getting better. It would just be nice if one of these winters can set up where we can show you how the storm will happen and not how it most likely won’t. Does this make sense at all. In mid-December the LRC model that we are testing was the only model to predict the two week warm spell. The other models out there forecasted a continuation of the cold. And, the LRC model also has a warm second half of January. So, what good is it? I will leave that up to you. I think it is incredible. It isn’t perfect however, but we have raised the bar high and I take on that pressure every day as we try to share our technology with the rest of the world. It is a tremendous pressure.

      Gary

  14. REAL HUMEDUDE January 9, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

    Aren’t we at a juncture where the LRC should be able to easily tell us where and when this system will impact? If not what good is it?
    Am I asking for too much? Seems like LRC is discounting this system, if we do get 2″ of ice this would be a major LRC miss IMO. If we can’t predict a major ice storm in cycle #2, I think we are leaving a lot to be desired.

    • CRW January 9, 2017 at 9:08 pm - Reply

      It could probably get close but not exact.

  15. Richard January 9, 2017 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    I agree with others
    I would like thoughts on Sat too. But, if I am understanding him right, Gary said there is a little twist. Hard to say at this point how that twist will influence the whole thing. Too complex. Too early. And even by Thursday it might be too early.

    And the LRC is not fine tuned enough to give specifics on what these fickle winter storms will do. The LRC knows there will be a storm. It fits. But what form will it take, and what track will it take ? That is the question.

    • Heat MIser January 9, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      So, the LRC knows there will be a storm, but doesn’t know what kind or where. Not too useful.

      • Terry January 9, 2017 at 1:07 pm - Reply

        I I agree with you

  16. Dave January 9, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Hi.

    Just wanted to chime in and then I am out of here again.

    One of my biggest criticisms is the constant back and forth of what the weather may do…

    For example: Last night, Gary blogs about the possibility of a storm this weekend….talks about how it fits the LRC and why we may be in the right spot.

    Today, he looks at the models again and now is saying that ‘Kansas City isn’t in the right spot.’ And touts how one model run shows no storm (which may or may not be correct, because I looked at the Canadian and it still shows freezing rain event on Saturday…but I digress.)

    This is the reason why people get upset and become frustrated and why trolls come on here to make sport…it is the constant waffling.

    I mean, the last time we got snow, last week…one day it was yes, next day is was no, then 48 hours before it was yes, again.

    Really, all people want is a consistent weather forecast, without the constant “Will it or Won’t It.” For the next five days on KSHB, there is going to be prolonged hype about the ‘possibility of a winter storm…’ and there will be news stories about how people are getting prepared, how the Chiefs are getting prepared, etc. People will watch the news and then react.

    Same thing on the blog…hype it up, people react, downplay it, people react. But, the biggest thing…is that they keep coming back for more!

    We are all such lemmings, sometimes.

    Just my thoughts. Do I think the LRC is valid, maybe. Is it getting better at predicting the weather, yes. But, is it any different than the GFS, NAM, EURO, ext? Nope. It just makes predictions. It is up to weather forecaster to make a forecast.

    Oh, well, back to regularly scheduled programming.

    • Joe K January 9, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

      Dave,

      The LRC is considerably different than the models you referenced, they are short term with limited accuracy and the LRC is long term with a high rate of accuracy. That is the key word, “accuracy”, it is defined differently based on individual perception. The LRC has demonstrated a unique ability to accurately forecast/predict the cyclic patterns and when we will and wont have the opportunity for storms, lows, highs and temps. It isn’t easy to understand and in order to do so, you must really study what Gary is talking about. I too questioned the LRC in the beginning but have since come to rely on it. Is it a 100% accurate? No. Gary has never claimed it to be. If you look at its core, the cyclic patterns are there and have been spot on. Determining the seasonal influences is on Gary as he has stated many times. You are correct when you state interpreting the data is on the Meteorologist of which, Gary has stated many times. Just my 2 cents

    • Richard January 9, 2017 at 3:04 pm - Reply

      Enough.
      Lets wait another day or 2.

  17. Joe January 9, 2017 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    i bet a “Poof” warning is directly correlated to the amount of hype a “storm” receives.

    • Joe K January 9, 2017 at 2:51 pm - Reply

      The hype is coming from the bloggers, not the forecasters (unless were talking about a certain national weather outlet). We have all been warned about model watching. I haven’t seen or read where Gary has hyped this storm, quite the opposite, if you read his posts he has stated many times that while this does fit the LRC, there are too many variables to believe one model of another right now

  18. Terry January 9, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

    I think we better start talking about the storm because technically it is only 4 days away. And this could be a very impactable storm. So I think we should try to start getting ready for it and stop wondering what the models are going to do from model run tomorrow model run. Gary said in one of his talk with other bloggers he said there can be many solutions between now and then. But we still need to talk about it. And get people ready for what could happen and not wait until the last minute!

  19. Elaine Watson January 9, 2017 at 1:38 pm - Reply

    Mike, well said! I would like to add that I believe that the blog followers and contributors are weather enthusiasts. People that like to learn and discuss the weather. In my book the LRC is amazing, in particular the way that it has been so accurate in advance. It is not pin point accuracy and that seems to bother some. For those that don’t think it is valuable I just don’t understand why you hang around. There are many other places to check up on the forecasts and models.

  20. Kurt January 9, 2017 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    Is this a difficult LRC for the models to identify how a storm will form or impact our area? Is there bad data or informaiton being sampled by the models? I know we always have wrong model output and that the flipflop, but just seems like this year is even more apparent.

    I am not convinced on an impacting storm this weekend, as there hasn’t been one in the previous cycle to form like this. However, are other factors in play to actually produce a signicant storm?

    I will prepare for the worst and stock up on pet/bird food and groceries well before the weekend. Keeping in mind I don’t want to get perishable items if there is widespread power outages. It just seems this lrc is so hard to pin down a forecast if it’s more than 2 or 3 days before the event. I don’t think that’s happened in many lrc’s in prior years. We kind of knew where a storm would form. I’d like to see an actaul funcation 4 corners storm moving into the panhandle of TX/OK and ride along the KS/OK border to Springfield and west of St. Louis and put us in the sweet spot. It’s too bad we can’t get anything to form like that in this lrc and give us all something to track for days insteach of nowcasting the day of the event.

  21. f00dl3 January 9, 2017 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    I find it interesting that all the models are showing this as being a significant event. The CMC 12z is the weakest showing only ~0.08″ of freezing rain, but sleet and snow on top of that. GMC past 2 runs has shown consistancy showing us with ~ 1/2″ of ice, Euro consistantly showing us with 1-3″ of freezing rain… and CMC 00z showed us with 1-3″ as well.

    All that being said, keep in mind yesterday all the models were just starting to show this storm being an impact to us. Prior to that it had all the ice over the Tennessee valley. That being said – it had my attention. And with the LRC, knowing that the storm tracked just to the north of Kansas City – having the storm dive all the way down to Tennessee just wouldn’t make any sense at all provided we are in the more “moderating” part of the LRC pattern.

  22. f00dl3 January 9, 2017 at 2:08 pm - Reply

    If anything it would make more sense even if this thing went further north and just gave us rain/thunderstorms. Possibly some high winds.

    Anyone remember that one event around December 30th a few years back ago that we got 60 MPH winds with 1/4″ of freezing rain after the squall line passed? Dropped from ~63F to ~29F in a matter of 30 minutes?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 9, 2017 at 4:53 pm - Reply

      I do! Had severe wind damage at my old rental! I like to bring up that event when people are arguing we can’t get severe thunderstorms during the winter. WE CAN, AND WE DO!

  23. someweatherdude January 9, 2017 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    With all three major models showing a significant ice storm, I bought a gasoline generator today just in case. It’s a small one, just for my two sump pumps. I don’t want a flooded basement if the worst comes to pass and the power is out for more than a few hours. Hopefully I won’t need it! I figure it’s probably a good thing to have anyway. So now was as good a time as any to buy it.

  24. f00dl3 January 9, 2017 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    NAM really isn’t even picking up on it yet. Let’s wait to see what the NAM says before we say “all” the models are agreeing on it.

    • someweatherdude January 9, 2017 at 3:17 pm - Reply

      Well . . . the NAM doesn’t go out that far, and I couldn’t wait until the last minute to order online. Like I said, I hope it doesn’t happen. It would be horrible. But I’d rather be prepared than sorry.

  25. Matt276506 January 9, 2017 at 3:03 pm - Reply

    I am still hoping that Gary’s 13 day out forecast of 48° with a 20% of rain will pan out on Sunday. Any chance of that?

  26. Kai January 9, 2017 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    Just because we haven’t had big organized storms this season, doesn’t mean this storm will miss us. When and where is this LRC twist? Is it this weekend? The south hasn’t had big or organized storms either, correct? (And I’m talking about locations where the models are showing ice, not gulf states). So why would they get a big impacting storm if they haven’t had any this season? This would lead me to believe this is either a poof storm or a MUCH more north storm, unless there is a twist. Good day.

  27. Bill in Lawrence January 9, 2017 at 3:30 pm - Reply

    Gary:
    Good Monday thaw afternoon to you sir. At least I got one last early moon lit run with the snow this morning. It was beautiful out!!!

    I will begin by saying that I am sticking with my 8-12% chance of winter event with this whole set up and will explain my reasons below. However, before that what I mean by a winter event, is if we receive over .10 of ice, over 1.5 inches of sleet, or over 1.5 inches of snow and or a large cancellation of events for the time period. I am defining winter event by this LRC and the past 2 LRC’s not by what is historical normal for this area. We are in this LRC, so the criteria should be based on this LRC; that is, it really doesn’t take much to have a winter event in this LRC LOL.

    This entire event in my very hobbyist opinion rests on one factor and that is the front Wednesday night and how much cold air will it truly bring down and how far south will that cold will go.

    To me the most interesting thing about this weekend set up is actually that front on Wednesday night. Going back and looking at cycle 1, the only real front we had before the 18th storm was on the 11th. There may have been a front around the 15th or so that got washed out before it made it, but I’m not sure. It seems as though this front switched places or something in this cycle and is coming in 4-5 days later than in cycle 1. Or, the models are way overdoing the strength of this front to begin with and we have just Thursday and Friday in the lower 30’s and then are in the 40’s and 50’s for the weekend. I would surely not be surprised if that does indeed happen and the 12Z GFS and NAM did seem a bit warmer overall. On some of the previous runs, the teens were much further south than on the 12Z runs today; are we seeing the models beginning to slowly catch up to the fact that this front will not really be that strong? Can Blocking 2 of this LRC still bring down enough cold air to keep us below freezing long enough to produce a winter event? On a different note, will there actually be this much moisture with this storm? These are questions in my humble opinion that will be interesting to follow over the next few model runs.

    At the end of the day, I am just a history teacher trying to make some sense on a weather blog; I may well be off on these ideas and will be wrong. If we do get a winter event or by Friday the models are still showing one that is at above the criteria above, I will eat all the crow you can serve me; warm if possible 🙂 My percentages will have obviously been way too low. The LRC has shown that the players are there; the block is there just as in cycle 1 (though stronger and more durable than cycle 1) as is the lead storm and the November 18th storm and it is January so the fact that everything could come together and produce a winter storm is not shocking. However, based on this part of the LRC I would respectfully argue that the chances are low. If this were a week earlier when this second block just formed or in mid-February with the first block in cycle 3 I would give it much more credence.

    Again, as Caesar said before crossing the Rubicon, let the dice fly high; these are my thoughts and they will either be on the right track, or I will be in the movie Airplane. 🙂

    Have a great afternoon everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Jason January 9, 2017 at 3:52 pm - Reply

      Very well said

  28. Richard January 9, 2017 at 3:31 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Is this what you call upper level low weather mans woe ? I have heard that phrase for years.
    If this is one of those just curious what makes them so difficult.
    Guess you are close to being on the air here in a few. Will wait to hear your latest thoughts. I don’t envy you. But do appreciate you.

    • ClassyCat January 9, 2017 at 4:03 pm - Reply

      I believe it is actually cut-off-low, weather mans woe.

    • Alex Pickman January 9, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

      Yes the phrase is “cut off low – weatherman’s low”.

      They are a challenge as the upper level low is cut off from the main jet stream, cause the system to loose its steering force. The tend to linger for a few days, and even wobble about. Its creates a headache for forecasters as the parameters fluctuate throughout the day.

      • ClassyCat January 9, 2017 at 6:49 pm - Reply

        I think you mean weatherman’s woe, not weatherman’s low.

        • Alex Pickman January 9, 2017 at 8:43 pm - Reply

          Lmao! Correct!

  29. Heat Miser January 9, 2017 at 3:45 pm - Reply

    National weather service mentions some snow on the front end, lots of fr rain and sleet on day 2-3

  30. Tim January 9, 2017 at 4:07 pm - Reply

    Pretty interesting the concern the NWS discussion makes regarding it, and even the furry animal is discussing it on their blog. I guess this appears this may need to be taken pretty seriously.

    • Richard January 9, 2017 at 4:19 pm - Reply

      Everyone us talking about it. But will it happen, or not.
      I remember years ago (Superbowl Sunday ??) when we were going to get a foot of snow. We were under a warning. Everyone hunkered down. Taverns, etc were empty.
      Woke up the next morning to. Nothing. Zip.
      Now maybe something will happen. But to what extent.
      Hope it is not a crippling ice storm.
      Bigger things to worry about than the Chiefs game if is a big ice storm.

    • Jess January 9, 2017 at 4:33 pm - Reply

      Can you post the link? I can’t seem to find it.

  31. Richard January 9, 2017 at 4:09 pm - Reply

    Sad
    The iconic Pioneer Cabin ( Tunnel) sequoia tree has been brought down by the storm in CA.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/09/508919216/iconic-sequoia-tunnel-tree-brought-down-by-california-storm

  32. Urbanity January 9, 2017 at 4:18 pm - Reply

    The big player is whether there will be any blocking and if the flow phases or splits. If it the storm develops slowly we’ll most likely have a rain event as the cold air washes out. The perfect storm is dependent on the depth of the cold air, latest models are pushing the cold H off to the northeast and with a warming trend on the horizon I would suggest we’ll have to swallow yet another bitter pill.

    My thoughts on the LRC for this storm and this year is that I can’t recall a deep storm at all during the new LRC development, from that perspective how can there be a significant weather event this winter when it takes so much energy to produce significant weather?

  33. Michael Garner January 9, 2017 at 4:36 pm - Reply

    From what I am reading as of today this weekend may not be an issue at all other than watch temps will be just warm enough that we get a nice spring rain in January. Moisture yes, snow nope. And by the way I’m one that always think it could happen, a nice storm like 2009 Christmas but those don’t happen often, other than that year and the next. Waiting for a big game this weekend and maybe some fun weather means I will be carrying a charging cord all day so I can check every 5 min if any new announcements have been made!

  34. Richard January 9, 2017 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    I think Gary just said on the air confidence is low that it will warm up enough on Sunday.
    It was a quick statement. I might not have heard it right,

  35. Gary H January 9, 2017 at 5:07 pm - Reply

    This has the local NWS’s attention per their 4:15 forecast discussion:

    Friday – The Weekend:

    This is the time frame that we`ll continue to watch very closely
    and as the headline states, could be rather impactful for the
    forecast area. While there is still notable variability in model
    solutions this far out, the models have been coming into
    increasingly better agreement with each other, with the ECMWF
    continuing to remain consistent in its run-to-run solutions.
    Increasing confidence exists on an elevated warm layer combining
    with below freezing surface temps to create a messy situation for
    much of, if not the entire, forecast area. The depth of this warm
    layer is rather deep on model forecast soundings, providing a good
    sense that freezing rain could very well be the predominant precip
    type for at least the southern half to two-thirds of the forecast
    area. It currently looks like a classic freezing rain setup on
    said model soundings. Moisture looks to not be a limiting factor
    as the GoMex opens up for business, thanks to ridging over the SE
    U.S. allowing for an open stream of southerly to southwesterly
    flow to bring its moisture into the local region. However, and
    this is important to note and stress, especially for the latter
    half of the weekend, this system is still 5+ days out so the
    forecast has PLENTY of time to change. Can`t ignore the signals
    though, such as the CIPS analogs, that the models are depicting a
    setup similar to past ice storm events. Definitely stay tuned.

  36. Rockdoc January 9, 2017 at 5:28 pm - Reply

    For those wondering about ice accumulation and potential damage check this out.

    https://weather.com/news/news/ice-storm-damage-impacts-20121123

    The 18z model just came out and the GFS shows 0.34 inches of ice late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temps then warm into low – mid 30s with rain. Rain hangs out through Sunday and temps warm. Rain through Monday as well. This amount of ice can damage some trees/plants with some power outages. The Canadian model has 0.04 inches of ice on Saturday. Don’t have access to the Euro, and the NAM only goes out 84 hours.

    Gary has indicated on TV he favors the “warmer” solution and that any icing will not be large on Saturday. This was my take. I hope it’s only a nuisance type storm with no major icing!

  37. Hunter January 9, 2017 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    This is going to be a doozy! I hope no one is injured traveling this weekend. I better start gathering my supplies NOW lol!!!

    • Clint January 9, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

      You just worry about not forgetting the beer. Don’t overdue yourself!

    • Heat MIser January 9, 2017 at 6:44 pm - Reply

      LoL…how can someone come on here so often for so long with the sole goal of being a dick? You must be one unhappy guy.

      • Gerry January 9, 2017 at 7:34 pm - Reply

        By responding to Hunter, you just feed into his intentions. Grow up Heat. I sure hope your not a grown man because your actions are not exactly ideal as well.

        • Heat MIser January 9, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

          Gerry, by attacking those confronting the troll…you feed right into the trolls desire to cause dissent in the blog. Shhh…don’t speak.

          • Gerry January 9, 2017 at 8:58 pm - Reply

            Haha you are a grown man. Pathetic.

  38. Terry January 9, 2017 at 6:15 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Forcast highs and lows for this weekend

    Fri/28/L25/Sat/ H/29/L27/Sun/H33

  39. Mr. Pete January 9, 2017 at 6:35 pm - Reply

    So Friday is a possible winter storm or Friday night?

    • Gary January 9, 2017 at 6:46 pm - Reply

      Friday night Pete, let’s see what the new data shows this evening. The Friday night early Saturday part of the storm looks fairly small, but it could still be impacting.

      Gary

  40. Richard January 9, 2017 at 6:52 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Anything you can do to stop kshb from airing that weather team promo ?
    During the 5 p.m. It was aired twice back-to-back with nothing in between.
    You say Winter storm is coming, then the daytime gal, then Gerard both saying the same. With the weekend setup coming, that promo really grabs attention for a major storm.
    When first seeing it a few weeks ago, I thought those were taken from actual footage of you on the air during a broadcast in recent years, But now I assume those are not actual takes from when there was a major storm coming, because Gerard has not been here long enough, not been through a major storm with kshb to have said that on air. So, that means only one thing. You all were scripted with those for the promo. Way to grab attention.

    Ok i spent way too much time on that one. But just wondered if there is another promo they can use until this thing blows over.

  41. Michael January 9, 2017 at 7:16 pm - Reply

    Gary, what is more likely? A primarily snow event or a primarily ice event (or rain?).

  42. Heat MIser January 9, 2017 at 8:05 pm - Reply

    I think Gary has said pretty clearly he doesn’t see this as a big snow event…more ice or even rain I believe.

    • Hunter January 9, 2017 at 8:42 pm - Reply

      Lol someone has some passive-agressive issues^^^^^

      • Rockdoc January 9, 2017 at 10:01 pm - Reply

        Hunter I’m going to call you out. You are the one with passive-agressive behavior. I’m tired of you as are most people here on the blog. You are worse than fake news and Russian trolls. In fact I wonder if that is who you are. Typical propaganda to create chaos and instability in the normal discourse of idea.

        Want to meet up somewhere so us real bloggers can meet you? I suspect not, because you’re a Russian troll. Gary, please yank this non-American off of this blog!

        • Kirk January 9, 2017 at 10:45 pm - Reply

          Lmao! Well said.

  43. Chiefs January 9, 2017 at 10:13 pm - Reply

    00z gfs has some ice friday night into Saturday morning. Then staying as rain from there throu the rest of the weekend.

  44. stl78 January 9, 2017 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    What she said♤😆

  45. APLS January 9, 2017 at 10:48 pm - Reply

    Ya, this isn’t going to be too big of deal. Just not enough blocking, so the warm air is going to win out. What a shocker. Still could be miserable for the Chiefs game.

    Mid 30’s and rain. Barf.

  46. Mr. Pete January 9, 2017 at 10:55 pm - Reply

    Why all the drama on here today. Geez.

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