The West Coast Gets Blasted & This Weeks Weather Pattern

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

sat_nhemi_ir4

Los Angeles, CA is now in the path of the most recent Pacific storm system. As you can see on the above infrared satellite photo from 7:30 AM this morning, there is a rather thick band of moisture centered on Southern California this morning. The main storm is off the Oregon coast. What is yet another amazing fact is that this very wet season near the west coast is not in an El Niño year. This was one of my points last winter when we accurately predicted that Southern California would have another dry winter despite all of the El Niño hype. This year, they are more in the path of these systems.

There is a lot to go over on this Monday.  The week will begin with a big warming trend over much of the United States. A potential weekend storm has our attention today. Where is it now? It doesn’t exist and will eventually develop depending on many other factors that are really all over the place this morning. I went back and forth over last nights GFS model and found this little piece of seemingly insignificant energy near the Inside Passage of Alaska. That little thing rotates around that big upper low, and some energy comes in from the central Pacific Ocean later this week and this is what will end up being the beginning of what could be an impacting storm system across the plains:

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This energy will gradually evolve and carve out a possible storm system. There are other important factors. One of the biggest factors is a strong cold front that will move across Wednesday night and Thursday, and then the storm is timed to produce a possible ice storm? It has to be discussed as it could have major impacts in the areas that could experience this, as you can see below:

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The forecasts from these models have been varying greatly from model run to model run. The fact that this storm is not even going to begin showing up on the models until around Friday should leave us with some perspective here. Let’s be patient as there is still quite a lot that must happen between now and Friday before we get too specific.

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The latest GFS, this mornings model run, was farther south and a bit slower. We have many days, and many more solutions to take a look at before we have to really seriously prepare for whatever this is going to become?

Have a great day!

Gary

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Mr. PeteAPLSKirkstl78Chiefs Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Why all the drama on here today. Geez.

APLS
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APLS

Ya, this isn’t going to be too big of deal. Just not enough blocking, so the warm air is going to win out. What a shocker. Still could be miserable for the Chiefs game.

Mid 30’s and rain. Barf.

stl78
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stl78

What she said♤😆

Chiefs
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Chiefs

00z gfs has some ice friday night into Saturday morning. Then staying as rain from there throu the rest of the weekend.

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

I think Gary has said pretty clearly he doesn’t see this as a big snow event…more ice or even rain I believe.

Hunter
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Hunter

Lol someone has some passive-agressive issues^^^^^

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Hunter I’m going to call you out. You are the one with passive-agressive behavior. I’m tired of you as are most people here on the blog. You are worse than fake news and Russian trolls. In fact I wonder if that is who you are. Typical propaganda to create chaos and instability in the normal discourse of idea.

Want to meet up somewhere so us real bloggers can meet you? I suspect not, because you’re a Russian troll. Gary, please yank this non-American off of this blog!

Kirk
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Kirk

Lmao! Well said.

Michael
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Michael

Gary, what is more likely? A primarily snow event or a primarily ice event (or rain?).

Richard
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Richard

Gary, Anything you can do to stop kshb from airing that weather team promo ? During the 5 p.m. It was aired twice back-to-back with nothing in between. You say Winter storm is coming, then the daytime gal, then Gerard both saying the same. With the weekend setup coming, that promo really grabs attention for a major storm. When first seeing it a few weeks ago, I thought those were taken from actual footage of you on the air during a broadcast in recent years, But now I assume those are not actual takes from when there was a major… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

So Friday is a possible winter storm or Friday night?

Terry
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Terry

Gary
Forcast highs and lows for this weekend

Fri/28/L25/Sat/ H/29/L27/Sun/H33

Hunter
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Hunter

This is going to be a doozy! I hope no one is injured traveling this weekend. I better start gathering my supplies NOW lol!!!

Clint
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Clint

You just worry about not forgetting the beer. Don’t overdue yourself!

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

LoL…how can someone come on here so often for so long with the sole goal of being a dick? You must be one unhappy guy.

Gerry
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Gerry

By responding to Hunter, you just feed into his intentions. Grow up Heat. I sure hope your not a grown man because your actions are not exactly ideal as well.

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

Gerry, by attacking those confronting the troll…you feed right into the trolls desire to cause dissent in the blog. Shhh…don’t speak.

Gerry
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Gerry

Haha you are a grown man. Pathetic.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

For those wondering about ice accumulation and potential damage check this out. https://weather.com/news/news/ice-storm-damage-impacts-20121123 The 18z model just came out and the GFS shows 0.34 inches of ice late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temps then warm into low – mid 30s with rain. Rain hangs out through Sunday and temps warm. Rain through Monday as well. This amount of ice can damage some trees/plants with some power outages. The Canadian model has 0.04 inches of ice on Saturday. Don’t have access to the Euro, and the NAM only goes out 84 hours. Gary has indicated on TV he favors… Read more »

Gary H
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Gary H

This has the local NWS’s attention per their 4:15 forecast discussion: Friday – The Weekend: This is the time frame that we`ll continue to watch very closely and as the headline states, could be rather impactful for the forecast area. While there is still notable variability in model solutions this far out, the models have been coming into increasingly better agreement with each other, with the ECMWF continuing to remain consistent in its run-to-run solutions. Increasing confidence exists on an elevated warm layer combining with below freezing surface temps to create a messy situation for much of, if not the… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

I think Gary just said on the air confidence is low that it will warm up enough on Sunday.
It was a quick statement. I might not have heard it right,

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

From what I am reading as of today this weekend may not be an issue at all other than watch temps will be just warm enough that we get a nice spring rain in January. Moisture yes, snow nope. And by the way I’m one that always think it could happen, a nice storm like 2009 Christmas but those don’t happen often, other than that year and the next. Waiting for a big game this weekend and maybe some fun weather means I will be carrying a charging cord all day so I can check every 5 min if any… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

The big player is whether there will be any blocking and if the flow phases or splits. If it the storm develops slowly we’ll most likely have a rain event as the cold air washes out. The perfect storm is dependent on the depth of the cold air, latest models are pushing the cold H off to the northeast and with a warming trend on the horizon I would suggest we’ll have to swallow yet another bitter pill. My thoughts on the LRC for this storm and this year is that I can’t recall a deep storm at all during… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Sad
The iconic Pioneer Cabin ( Tunnel) sequoia tree has been brought down by the storm in CA.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/09/508919216/iconic-sequoia-tunnel-tree-brought-down-by-california-storm

Tim
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Tim

Pretty interesting the concern the NWS discussion makes regarding it, and even the furry animal is discussing it on their blog. I guess this appears this may need to be taken pretty seriously.

Richard
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Richard

Everyone us talking about it. But will it happen, or not.
I remember years ago (Superbowl Sunday ??) when we were going to get a foot of snow. We were under a warning. Everyone hunkered down. Taverns, etc were empty.
Woke up the next morning to. Nothing. Zip.
Now maybe something will happen. But to what extent.
Hope it is not a crippling ice storm.
Bigger things to worry about than the Chiefs game if is a big ice storm.

Jess
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Jess

Can you post the link? I can’t seem to find it.

Richard
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Richard

I think this is nws not sure id it is what Heat Miser was looking at though

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.0997&lon=-94.5786#.WHQUemK9KSM

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

Looks like what I just said, except the snow on the back end instead of the front end. I’d rather have rain than ice, but on the other hand, rain in January sucks…I want snow!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

National weather service mentions some snow on the front end, lots of fr rain and sleet on day 2-3

Richard
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Richard

Gary,
Is this what you call upper level low weather mans woe ? I have heard that phrase for years.
If this is one of those just curious what makes them so difficult.
Guess you are close to being on the air here in a few. Will wait to hear your latest thoughts. I don’t envy you. But do appreciate you.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I believe it is actually cut-off-low, weather mans woe.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Yes the phrase is “cut off low – weatherman’s low”.

They are a challenge as the upper level low is cut off from the main jet stream, cause the system to loose its steering force. The tend to linger for a few days, and even wobble about. Its creates a headache for forecasters as the parameters fluctuate throughout the day.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I think you mean weatherman’s woe, not weatherman’s low.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Lmao! Correct!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good Monday thaw afternoon to you sir. At least I got one last early moon lit run with the snow this morning. It was beautiful out!!! I will begin by saying that I am sticking with my 8-12% chance of winter event with this whole set up and will explain my reasons below. However, before that what I mean by a winter event, is if we receive over .10 of ice, over 1.5 inches of sleet, or over 1.5 inches of snow and or a large cancellation of events for the time period. I am defining winter event by… Read more »

Jason
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Jason

Very well said

Kai
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Kai

Just because we haven’t had big organized storms this season, doesn’t mean this storm will miss us. When and where is this LRC twist? Is it this weekend? The south hasn’t had big or organized storms either, correct? (And I’m talking about locations where the models are showing ice, not gulf states). So why would they get a big impacting storm if they haven’t had any this season? This would lead me to believe this is either a poof storm or a MUCH more north storm, unless there is a twist. Good day.

Matt276506
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Matt276506

I am still hoping that Gary’s 13 day out forecast of 48° with a 20% of rain will pan out on Sunday. Any chance of that?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

NAM really isn’t even picking up on it yet. Let’s wait to see what the NAM says before we say “all” the models are agreeing on it.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

Well . . . the NAM doesn’t go out that far, and I couldn’t wait until the last minute to order online. Like I said, I hope it doesn’t happen. It would be horrible. But I’d rather be prepared than sorry.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

With all three major models showing a significant ice storm, I bought a gasoline generator today just in case. It’s a small one, just for my two sump pumps. I don’t want a flooded basement if the worst comes to pass and the power is out for more than a few hours. Hopefully I won’t need it! I figure it’s probably a good thing to have anyway. So now was as good a time as any to buy it.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

If anything it would make more sense even if this thing went further north and just gave us rain/thunderstorms. Possibly some high winds.

Anyone remember that one event around December 30th a few years back ago that we got 60 MPH winds with 1/4″ of freezing rain after the squall line passed? Dropped from ~63F to ~29F in a matter of 30 minutes?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I do! Had severe wind damage at my old rental! I like to bring up that event when people are arguing we can’t get severe thunderstorms during the winter. WE CAN, AND WE DO!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I find it interesting that all the models are showing this as being a significant event. The CMC 12z is the weakest showing only ~0.08″ of freezing rain, but sleet and snow on top of that. GMC past 2 runs has shown consistancy showing us with ~ 1/2″ of ice, Euro consistantly showing us with 1-3″ of freezing rain… and CMC 00z showed us with 1-3″ as well. All that being said, keep in mind yesterday all the models were just starting to show this storm being an impact to us. Prior to that it had all the ice over… Read more »

Kurt
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Kurt

Is this a difficult LRC for the models to identify how a storm will form or impact our area? Is there bad data or informaiton being sampled by the models? I know we always have wrong model output and that the flipflop, but just seems like this year is even more apparent. I am not convinced on an impacting storm this weekend, as there hasn’t been one in the previous cycle to form like this. However, are other factors in play to actually produce a signicant storm? I will prepare for the worst and stock up on pet/bird food and… Read more »

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Mike, well said! I would like to add that I believe that the blog followers and contributors are weather enthusiasts. People that like to learn and discuss the weather. In my book the LRC is amazing, in particular the way that it has been so accurate in advance. It is not pin point accuracy and that seems to bother some. For those that don’t think it is valuable I just don’t understand why you hang around. There are many other places to check up on the forecasts and models.

Terry
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Terry

I think we better start talking about the storm because technically it is only 4 days away. And this could be a very impactable storm. So I think we should try to start getting ready for it and stop wondering what the models are going to do from model run tomorrow model run. Gary said in one of his talk with other bloggers he said there can be many solutions between now and then. But we still need to talk about it. And get people ready for what could happen and not wait until the last minute!

Joe
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Joe

i bet a “Poof” warning is directly correlated to the amount of hype a “storm” receives.

Joe K
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Joe K

The hype is coming from the bloggers, not the forecasters (unless were talking about a certain national weather outlet). We have all been warned about model watching. I haven’t seen or read where Gary has hyped this storm, quite the opposite, if you read his posts he has stated many times that while this does fit the LRC, there are too many variables to believe one model of another right now

Clint
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Clint

comment image

12z Euro

Richard
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Richard

Enough.
Lets wait another day or 2.

Dave
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Dave

Hi. Just wanted to chime in and then I am out of here again. One of my biggest criticisms is the constant back and forth of what the weather may do… For example: Last night, Gary blogs about the possibility of a storm this weekend….talks about how it fits the LRC and why we may be in the right spot. Today, he looks at the models again and now is saying that ‘Kansas City isn’t in the right spot.’ And touts how one model run shows no storm (which may or may not be correct, because I looked at the… Read more »

Joe K
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Joe K

Dave, The LRC is considerably different than the models you referenced, they are short term with limited accuracy and the LRC is long term with a high rate of accuracy. That is the key word, “accuracy”, it is defined differently based on individual perception. The LRC has demonstrated a unique ability to accurately forecast/predict the cyclic patterns and when we will and wont have the opportunity for storms, lows, highs and temps. It isn’t easy to understand and in order to do so, you must really study what Gary is talking about. I too questioned the LRC in the beginning… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

I agree with others
I would like thoughts on Sat too. But, if I am understanding him right, Gary said there is a little twist. Hard to say at this point how that twist will influence the whole thing. Too complex. Too early. And even by Thursday it might be too early.

And the LRC is not fine tuned enough to give specifics on what these fickle winter storms will do. The LRC knows there will be a storm. It fits. But what form will it take, and what track will it take ? That is the question.

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

So, the LRC knows there will be a storm, but doesn’t know what kind or where. Not too useful.

Terry
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Terry

I I agree with you

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Aren’t we at a juncture where the LRC should be able to easily tell us where and when this system will impact? If not what good is it?
Am I asking for too much? Seems like LRC is discounting this system, if we do get 2″ of ice this would be a major LRC miss IMO. If we can’t predict a major ice storm in cycle #2, I think we are leaving a lot to be desired.

CRW
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CRW

It could probably get close but not exact.

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Gary can you focus more thoughts on Friday and Saturday time frame? While I understand the focus on Sunday, there are numerous activities (College games in Lawrence and Manhattan, travel, etc.) on Saturday that will effect numerous people. Since this is 4-5 days out, a good understanding of your thoughts on those days would be very beneficial as to the timing of the possible storm.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Dobber, I wonder if Hunter is from Troll Antarctica? There is a weather station there at the Norwegian research station. 😄

https://www.wunderground.com/aq/troll

Hunter
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Hunter

It’s coming. Brace yourselves!

Dobber
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Dobber

Troll on hunter

MIke
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MIke

I truly cant believe all of the hate that is on this blog. Why would some of you want to be so disrespectful to Gary or other people on the blog? If I knew some of your real names I would pray for you to be a nicer person in life and treat other people with dignity and respect. Just because it is an open forum doesn’t give any of us the right to be cruel. I realize we have young people and old people on the blog but enough is enough. Please keep your demeaning comments to yourself and… Read more »

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I think Hunter is REALLY freaking out…panicking. I think I just saw him at the grocery store buying milk and bread. LoL

CRW
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CRW

In ten days…

Richard
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Richard

Gary,
Still analyzing ?

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good Monday Morning Gary. I sure hope this storm does not verify. I remember the ice storm that hit January 30, 2002! For those who did not live here I found a link to some photos. http://fox4kc.com/2012/01/30/pictures-10-year-anniversary-of-epic-ice-storm/ In looking at the 0z and 6z GFS model runs it seems like we will have some snow and sleet Friday evening into early Saturday. The major ice comes in Saturday evening lasting into Sunday morning. Both the 925mb and 850mb layers are above freezing while the surface temps are in the upper 20s until Sunday morning when it goes above freezing. This… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

So is this a parallel tocomment image ?

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Good morning f00dl3. I think that one is too early. That’s for November 4th. Can you pull up the maps for November 14-18th? I think the 18th map shows it but the trough was not as deep. I pulled up the archived satellite map with surface info and it was November 18th when we had rain and the surface low was just to the south of KC!

Jason
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Jason

It’s still way too early to trust any of these models as we have seen with previous storms. Some have called for over a foot of snow and we get 1″. Will be interesting to watch as the days progress. Hoping it doesn’t verify.

Richard
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Richard

Not good
So if more than one model comes up with the early solution in a day or two from now is that when you start leaning in that direction too Gary ?
I recall last week you saying not the 14th, but the 17th yes.

Three7s
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Three7s

That’s what I was referring to in my previous comment.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Naw….the models have been horrible with exact path more than 3 days out. We might have a better idea late this week.

Three7s
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Three7s

Most of the models are still favoring this storm starting on Sunday. Are you still favoring the latter solution, Gary?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Power could be out for days in that scenario. Horrible!!!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Latest GFS has us closer to the core.

Historically this type of setup is an Icy one in this part of the country. Not saying it’s going to happen, but historically speaking there are huge red flags right now.

Miss Jess
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Miss Jess

Can you share that link? Thanks!

Steve
Guest
Steve

Gary,
As of now it looks like kc is on the edge of it. Looks to be more south of us. We will get some but not as much as south of us?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

As Gary said, way to soon to tell exactly where it will track. In a few days mabye we’ll get an idea…

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Wow I hope that storm doesn’t produce can you imagine that much ice there would be powerlines down everywhere ! Let’s pray for snow instead much easier to remove and enjoy have a great week bloggers!
Michael