Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Los Angeles, CA is now in the path of the most recent Pacific storm system. As you can see on the above infrared satellite photo from 7:30 AM this morning, there is a rather thick band of moisture centered on Southern California this morning. The main storm is off the Oregon coast. What is yet another amazing fact is that this very wet season near the west coast is not in an El Niño year. This was one of my points last winter when we accurately predicted that Southern California would have another dry winter despite all of the El Niño hype. This year, they are more in the path of these systems.
There is a lot to go over on this Monday. The week will begin with a big warming trend over much of the United States. A potential weekend storm has our attention today. Where is it now? It doesn’t exist and will eventually develop depending on many other factors that are really all over the place this morning. I went back and forth over last nights GFS model and found this little piece of seemingly insignificant energy near the Inside Passage of Alaska. That little thing rotates around that big upper low, and some energy comes in from the central Pacific Ocean later this week and this is what will end up being the beginning of what could be an impacting storm system across the plains:
This energy will gradually evolve and carve out a possible storm system. There are other important factors. One of the biggest factors is a strong cold front that will move across Wednesday night and Thursday, and then the storm is timed to produce a possible ice storm? It has to be discussed as it could have major impacts in the areas that could experience this, as you can see below:
The forecasts from these models have been varying greatly from model run to model run. The fact that this storm is not even going to begin showing up on the models until around Friday should leave us with some perspective here. Let’s be patient as there is still quite a lot that must happen between now and Friday before we get too specific.
The latest GFS, this mornings model run, was farther south and a bit slower. We have many days, and many more solutions to take a look at before we have to really seriously prepare for whatever this is going to become?
Have a great day!