Model Thoughts On Next Weekend

/Model Thoughts On Next Weekend

Model Thoughts On Next Weekend

Good Sunday afternoon bloggers,

Here we go again! The european model just came out with another new solution. The GFS model came out with a consistent solution to its last run. The Canadian model has its own version of what may happen next weekend. The LRC strongly suggests there will be a storm system to track in this time period. So, what is it? What is going to happen? We are predicting the future and the January version of this years cycling pattern has certainly been entertaining. Now, please know that the models have been predicting some big storm systems for the Kansas City area many other times this season and not one of them has come through. Not one! Most of the time I can just rule them out and say it doesn’t fit the LRC and I have been right this season. This storm system does fit, but for it to be as functional as the European model is showing is very unlikely. It is not out of the range of possibilities however. I just don’t favor this solution. Let’s take a look at it anyway:

screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-1-02-51-pm

The map above and the map below are the same map, but just the zoomed in version below:

4

I am not going to over analyze a solution that is likely wrong.  How can I not pay attention to this? It has my attention, but so does the GFS model that drops the upper low into Mexico. If you look back at this years LRC over the past three months, you will find a few big upper lows that dropped south over Baja.

Okay, just wanted to do a quick blog today. Let’s keep the great discussion moving forward. New data rolls in soon.

GAry

 

2017-01-09T07:09:46+00:00 January 8th, 2017|General|20 Comments

20 Comments

  1. Rred95 January 8, 2017 at 1:47 pm - Reply

    I want a big snowstorm, but not when chiefs are playing. Bad weather games favor running teams. Aka Pittsburgh. KC needs a good passing attack to win.

  2. KAM January 8, 2017 at 1:54 pm - Reply

    Suppose to leave kci tomorrow at 8 a.m. to reno. Thoughts? Severe flooding?

  3. Terry January 8, 2017 at 1:55 pm - Reply

    Gary at one time you told me that the European model it’s Doing to better job than the GFS models have and you favor that model and you said the same thing about the Canadian model.

    • Terry January 8, 2017 at 1:57 pm - Reply

      But as we have learned before storm doesn’t always follow the same track as in different Cycles to cycle am I right on that ?

  4. Mike January 8, 2017 at 2:52 pm - Reply

    Lets hope the EURO model is out to lunch. It is showing 1.99″ of ice accumulation from Saturday to Monday night. As other bloggers will chime in it is 6-8 days away and many more model runs will take place but it is interesting and I am sure it will change 16 more times. Smiley face.

  5. Gerry January 8, 2017 at 3:06 pm - Reply

    Call me crazy, but I think we are due for a big storm of some kind. I think this storm will shift further North with time and impact KC. Just my two cents.

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 3:39 pm - Reply

      I don’t think you are crazy. We are due. And, this next week has the potential. I don’t want it to happen on the big game at Arrowhead, but I can’t control any of it. Sometimes I feel that pressure, LOL.

      LRC Analysis Update: I just analyzed the November part of this pattern and I can see a better chance of the European model being right than I had thought. There is definitely a decent chance. Why? The system that comes into the west coast next Friday, the 13th, can be traced back to the part of the pattern that cycled through between November 12th and November 18th. In this part of the pattern there was a weak upper low that dropped into Mexico, but it got picked up by a rather strong wave that moved across the plains on November 18th. In this LRC Cycle 2 and January version we have much colder air, a block breaking down, and some other factors that are being considered. But, it is there, will the storm dig hard into Mexico, or move out like the European Model. We should know which solution is trending in the right direction in the next two days or so.

      Gary

      • mark meyer January 8, 2017 at 4:00 pm - Reply

        Gary

        What day in early Dec do you consider to be the start date for cycle 2?

        mark

        • Gary January 8, 2017 at 4:50 pm - Reply

          Mark,

          That’s a really tough question. There is so much to it. I would have to go and look. This pattern is so fascinating.

          Gary

  6. ClassyCat January 8, 2017 at 3:47 pm - Reply

    Gary, can you give us a daily forecast for the time period of the Chiefs game from now until the game? This wouldn’t be to hold your feet to any fire, but rather to see how your forecast and the models contrast as the models vary so much.

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 4:53 pm - Reply

      ClassyCat,

      I forecasted a 20% chance of rain or snow and 48 degrees 13 days before the game. I have been trying to be very consistent. If the European model is right, then that forecast will have to change, but until I get evidence in that model having a chance, I will stick with somewhere between 38 and 50 that day. Stay tuned!

      Gary

  7. Richard January 8, 2017 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    Garys post on facebok
    The The Kansas City Chiefs will be playing the Steelers next weekend. There is a chance of a storm, but I am just not certain yet if it will hit us or miss us. I am hoping for a dry day next Sunday, but right now I have concerns!

  8. Richard January 8, 2017 at 4:44 pm - Reply
  9. Chiefs January 8, 2017 at 5:40 pm - Reply

    Gfs has the main show south of Kc. With it digging deep into Mexico like Gary said might happen. Nothing really but rain on Monday. Should be a fun week of watching the models.

  10. Terry January 8, 2017 at 5:57 pm - Reply

    Get for some sleet/ice/freezing rain/ snow / Thats what its did in the last cycle on the GFS cycle to cycle in different LRC but I believe that Jetstream is a lot stronger this go around and in January.

    • Hunter January 8, 2017 at 7:08 pm - Reply

      It’s coming Terry! Are you excited yet?

      • Rob January 8, 2017 at 7:31 pm - Reply

        Hunter,

        Stop using your parents internet, move out of their basement and get a real life. Typically when people like you act the way you do behind a screenname means that at some point in your life you were bullied. Get some help and move on with your life. If you need some direction walk out of your parents front door, get on your tricycle and head to Dr. Phil. He will help you with your emotional scars. Good Luck!

        • Joe K January 8, 2017 at 11:09 pm - Reply

          Rob,

          It would surprise you to know how old he is. We all just try to ignore him and his many different screen names over the years. Pretty pathetic to pay money to troll a weather blog of all things

  11. Darrin January 9, 2017 at 7:04 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Do you still think that based on LRC that you future prediction for chiefs game Sunday will Hold true? I don’t even pretend to be able to read the models.

  12. Dale January 9, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

    The weather channel has a story that says this could be a major three-day ice event from Missouri all the way to the Texas panhandle. https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/potential-ice-storm-later-this-week
    The snow isn’t what concerns me but the ice as my wife has a funeral to attend in the Texas Panhandle on Saturday.

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