Weather Thoughts On Saturday

/Weather Thoughts On Saturday

Weather Thoughts On Saturday

Good Saturday afternoon bloggers,

I hope everyone is having a great start to the weekend.  The atmospheric river set up has started producing out west.  The storm system that got some of your attention for next weekend is now fitting the LRC better and moving into the early part of the  next week.  It will wobble around on the various models as we get a bit closer. It is fascinating watching it fall into the LRC puzzle. I am expecting a possible storm around the 17th, not the 14th or 15th as the models have been showing.

Weather headlines:

  • The west coast will get blasted. Over 20 inches of rain are likely in spots during the next week with snow levels going up and down as these systems move through
  • The east coast is getting hit today by a developing storm
  • There will be some big ups and downs this week with another Arctic blast likely by around Thursday or Friday
  • The next storm in the plains will track across Nebraska and Iowa into the Great Lakes with the Arctic front moving in
  • And, then the next storm farther south may affect Kansas/Oklahoma and the southern plains early in the next week

Take a look at the precipitation forecast for the next seven days:

1

Kansas City’s storm potential:

  • The GFS model just came out with another new solution. I lean in this direction of the timing, but not necessarily the strength. I HOPE that it has a chance of being right as it is showcasing the KC area with snow a week from Monday night, which is a long ways off. It has the strong Arctic front Thursday night and Friday and it tries to warm it up with sunshine for the Chiefs game Sunday.
  • The Canadian model has a very different solution, as should be expected. It looks more like last nights European model so we must pay close attention to the new Euro coming out soon.  This Canadian model digs the storm hard heading towards northwest Mexico. We have seen systems doing this already this season, but when they have they have ended up cutting/closing off down there leaving the plains dry. The flow is stronger at this time of the year, so if it doesn’t cut off we could have a big storm
  • The European Model again has a major winter storm next weekend. I still lean against this solution as it is a system that develops from a wave that doesn’t even exist at the moment.  It still has my attention.  This solution has many inches of snow in KC and during the Chiefs game. Again, I lean against this solution.

Have a great weekend! Thank you for sharing and participating in this weather experience. It certainly is entertaining and fun right now. I am taking Sunny for a walk as the temperatures are finally warming up to above 20 degrees.

Gary

2017-01-08T13:39:20+00:00 January 7th, 2017|General|50 Comments

50 Comments

  1. Craig January 7, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Gary, another “10-days out” storm. How many times have we seen this in just the past two months?
    Does a storm on the 17-18th fit the LRC? I’ve lost track of the day count in this current cycle.

    • Richard January 7, 2017 at 11:24 am - Reply

      Craig,
      As blue flash said in the previous blog there was a blizzard raging in Dakotas and Minnesota on Nov 17. So it fits the LRC cycle length of 59-60 days.

    • Gary January 7, 2017 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Yes, it fits the pattern to have a storm between around the 15th and 20th, centered on the 17th, but it still could vary by a day or two.

      Gary

      • Richard January 7, 2017 at 12:06 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Curious. Does the cycle length vary greatly from year to year ? Do you have an average cycle length from all of the years that you have been analyzing the LRC ?

  2. Hunter January 7, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    Always 10 days away…..

    • blue flash January 7, 2017 at 12:44 pm - Reply

      Of course! This blog is all about forecasting 10 days away. That’s what makes it so much fun!

  3. Rockdoc January 7, 2017 at 12:39 pm - Reply

    Current 12z GFS shows it moving into KC on Monday (16th) in the afternoon. First as freezing rain, and then switching to snow into Tuesday (17th). The surface temperature on Monday is below freezing, but the 925mb layer is above freezing through the afternoon. By 6pm it drops to below below freezing so we get snow. Currently showing ~ 4 inches.

    The ice/snow may be short lived since temps warm up into 30s on Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if this verifies.

    By the way, here’s archived 500mb figure for November 14th.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=20&pl=ln&yy=2016&mm=11&dd=14&hh=00&sc=1.0&ge=640×480&pg=web

    Here’s the one for November 18th.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=10&pl=ln&yy=2016&mm=11&dd=18&hh=00&sc=1.0&ge=640×480&pg=web

    Gary, which one of these better approximates the anticipated system per the LRC? Thanks!

    Hope you and Sunny had a nice walk 🐕🤗

    • Gary January 7, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      The latest European model has it similar to the GFS but a day or so earlier. I am glad you posted these maps, Rockdoc. I am always looking at the data and looking at previous cycles, but I hadn’t done so yet today. You picked out the two systems that have the potential to bring us some weather excitement. They are there. Are you impressed? I am impressed with your increasing ability and understanding of how to use the LRC. Can you see why there are many times that I say it “does NOT fit”, or it “DOES fit”? As you can clearly see, a system absolutely does fit the LRC within the next ten days. One of the many challenges is the seasonal affect, amongst many others. This January version of the weather pattern may very well bring us a good winter storm. Now, we still are somewhat at the mercy of the models since we now know this storm actually fits, and there is cold air available. IF there was no cold air available, then the conversation wouldn’t be as exciting. The blocking going on now is helping a lot in keeping the cold air near by. Which wave will the models truly catch onto now?

      To specifically answer your question, look at the latest European model. It actually models both of the waves you posted, one for next weekend and the second one after.

      And, did you see our walk with Buck on Facebook? A lot of fun! Now it’s onto working out.

      Gary

  4. Mr. Pete January 7, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

    It would be funny if a blizzard hit on the 16th. Kids are already out of school that day

  5. Mike January 7, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    EURO model shows a monster snow storm on Monday and Tuesday the 16th and 17th. Oh my!!!

  6. blue flash January 7, 2017 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Maybe a “superbowl reprise”….. Nice day for the game, then back to winter the next day!

  7. Rockdoc January 7, 2017 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    Thank You Gary! I will try to keep up with previous systems and posting of archived figures. I have not looked at Euro. The figures for the Euro are limited on various sites with not much detail. I think the experience web sites allow better access though. I will check it out though.

    Either way, I hope the storm does not come on Chief’s game day. Monday is a holiday so many people will be off from work!

    I’ll check out your FB for new pictures 🐕🤗

  8. Bill in Lawrence January 7, 2017 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    Happy Saturday afternoon everyone.

    Rockdoc:

    Plymouth is such a great place to get information; it has archived data going back into the 1990’s. Really a great place to get weather information.

    The storm on November 18th is one I noted to keep an eye on in cycles 2 and 3. I have noted that the models had it as a strong storm about 10 days out then at around 4 days they had it as just an open wave but then it came across the northern plains much stronger. The interesting thing to me at the time was that it brought down our first true cold air of the season as we hit 23 degrees that Saturday night. There was also a pretty decent piece of energy that came across 2 days before Thanksgiving; it looked wet early in the model runs, but then went north of us and we really just wound up with a windy, cloudy, chilly day after it passed followed by the big post Thanksgiving warm up.

    Okay, now it is own up time. I went back today and really looked at my notes from cycle 1, and have realized I have made some serious errors of analysis. Kind of like the emperor in Jedi. LOL

    First of all, I have discovered that I need to keep more detailed notes. This is the first year I began to take notes on each week of cycle 1 but they were lacking in details to say the least.

    Secondly, I was thinking the November 18th storm should not come back through until around the 22nd or 23rd of January so I am off by about 5-7 days in that analysis. Which had me thinking that the two storms showing up on the models were more related to the November 11th-14th time frame. I also have somewhat misread the November 18th storm as being the storm that really began our switch into a colder pattern since we did really cool off between the 18th and Thanksgiving. I of course forgot about the post Thanksgiving warm up and rain the Sunday after Thanksgiving and that it was really the weekend of December 3rd that we begin the slow move towards the colder part of the end of cycle 1 and beginning of cycle 2.

    Thirdly, I did not think that this second blocking part of the pattern form the Halloween part would ever be this strong nor that it could hold together better as it appears it will do later into the cycle; thus providing the possibility for the stronger storm of November 18th to give us a winter event. I am off of this whole thing by about a week.

    All that said, in my very hobbyist opinion, our chances of a winter storm in the next 2 weeks is still overall low; I’ll be a fool and stick to my 8-12% chances. There is for sure a chance I will be eating some crow here; the energy is there as that November 18th storm was strong; we did have two strong cold fronts around November 11th so the possibility of cold air is there; it is
    January so the block could for sure be stronger and all of this appears to be bearing out. However, I just don’t trust this part off the LRC to deliver a big winter storm to this area nor do I trust that block to really hold long enough. I’m kind of like Quint in Jaws; she can’t take 8 barrels, not 8 barrels she can’t; and of course what happens-the shark takes all 8 barrels under. Well, this part of the LRC can’t produce a winter storm not this part of the LRC….

    Of course this not the LRC being wrong, but my hobbyist interpretation of the LRC. The LRC has shown that there are players in this part that can produce a winter storm however small they may be. If we do indeed get a winter storm next week, then it is me alone who misinterpreted the pattern.

    So many model solutions to go. There will be snowy runs, icy runs, and tropical runs over the next 7-8 days. My own interpretation is that there is a 90% chance that we wind up looking more like the November 18th scenario than a winter storm. As Caesar said crossing the Rubicon, let the dice fly high!!!

    Have a great Saturday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  9. Craig January 7, 2017 at 4:51 pm - Reply
  10. Heat MIser January 7, 2017 at 5:03 pm - Reply

    And…it’s irrelevant. Let’s she what the models show in a week for ten days from now.

    • Hunter January 7, 2017 at 5:50 pm - Reply

      POOF

  11. Kai January 7, 2017 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    Intellicast app showing ice and snow next Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The Canadian model was the only model showing major ice storm that weekend. Don’t have much time to read the blog or comments, so was just wondering if someone could clear this up. Is this an LRC storm or should I take a hike? Ha!

    Thanks to anyone who answers. And yes, I know it’s 7-10 days out, and a trillion solutions will present itself from now until then. Again, just want to know if it fits the LRC.

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 5:28 am - Reply

      The storm fits the LRC, in two pieces or two separate systems. There are still problems with this forecast however. First of all it is five to eight days out, and secondly what could happen would be for the system to dig so hard that it gets lost in Mexico for a while. The latest GFS model does just that, drops it deeper into Mexico. With it being January, maybe the entire storm can come out like what some of the models have, the wet solutions, but confidence is shaky.

      Gary

  12. Darrin January 8, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

    Any updates on blog. Everyone is all over the place for precipitation chances next weekend.

  13. Jess January 8, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

    What does the latest Euro show?

    • Rickmckc January 8, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

      Sleet storm followed by 4 inches of snow. Temperature in the 20s.

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 9:40 am - Reply

      The latest European Model, which is from yesterday evening, had mammoth winter storm in KC with major ice then snow. I don’t buy it yet at all. Yes, the models are all over the place. Let’s see how the models come in this morning and I will write up a blog around noon today.

      Gary

  14. Steve January 8, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

    Rickmckc, What’s the time frame on that. Next weekend? Thanks.

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 9:40 am - Reply

      Don’t worry about the time frame on something that may not even happen. If there is any evidence that this storm is realistic we will then go into potential timing.

      Gary

      • Terry January 8, 2017 at 10:19 am - Reply

        So Gary are you saying that theres not going to be a storm? It has been showing up for a few days now ?

        • Gary January 8, 2017 at 10:36 am - Reply

          The LRC indicates two systems Terry, but again with this pattern we are in nothing as organized as the big storm systems showing up on some of the models. There is always a chance of a twist here or there, but I still favor the much weaker solutions.

          Gary

  15. Bill in Lawrence January 8, 2017 at 10:18 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good southerly breeze morning to you sir. The snow is coming under attack today for sure. 🙂

    I think one needs to ask some questions about next weekend when looking at the models.

    First of all, does a winter storm fit this part of the LRC? Looking back at cycle 1, you have to answer no. This part of the pattern is not the part most conducive to an impacting winter storm.

    That said, you also have to ask, can the fact that it is January and we are deep in winter and that the AO may be deeply negative have an impact on this storm? Then ask, how much of an impact? The answer of course is yes but is that fact strong enough to overcome this part of the pattern we are currently in? For that, I think you have to think in terms of percentages and in my very humble opinion you are looking at a 10% chance at best.

    The other question you have to ask, is does the look of the storm on the models make sense; not only the track but also the timing, cold air and amount of moisture? This was a decent storm in cycle 1 so the fact that we are looking at a strong storm does make sense regarding the LRC as does the timing. However, we have yet in the winter cycles have a storm throw this much moisture into the central plains, Oklahoma, and Missouri River valley so that fact has to make one pause at these outputs.

    At the end of the day, looking at all the factors, in my very humble opinion, one really has to take these model outputs with a huge grain of salt. Looking at all the factors, I would still respectfully argue that we have about a 10% chance of an impacting winter storm during the Saturday-Tuesday time frame; is the chance there yes it is. It is January and there is a decently strong storm for this LRC coming out into the plains in that time frame and the AO may be extremely negative. However, I think at the end of the day, where we are in cycle 2 will trump those 3 factors and the chances of an impacting winter storm are low.

    All that said, even with a 10% chance, it is more than worth paying attention to and following. 🙂

    I really do hope this makes sense as I am typing this kind of fast this morning.

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 10:43 am - Reply

      Bill,

      Good analysis. The Arctic Oscillation is not negative, it is in fact positive. This is one factor. The LRC indicates only a weak system splitting as it goes by, and some of the models are now trending in this direction. The high pressure area is so strong that it will take a strong storm to overcome that high pressure area to throw moisture up our way next weekend. Add in all of these factors and I would agree with a 90% chance of it not being a major storm, and only around that 10% chance of it becoming one. The chance of any significant precipitation is likely only in the 20 or 30% range which leans in the much drier direction.

      What should not be surprising to anyone is the massive exit of the Arctic air by as early as Sunday night and Monday. This will be the second time that in around one 24 hour period we would experience a major Arctic air mass down into the northern United States and then the incredibly mass exodus of the Arctic air in such a short time. It happened in December and it appears it will happen again within one week. Did I say incredible? And, this leaves us likely frustrated again. but I am not surprised.

      The models have to be up to 75″ of snow predicted for KC this season, and yet we are sitting at near 4″.

      Gary

    • Richard January 8, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

      Bill,
      Two things that you said above confuse me

      “First of all, does a winter storm fit this part of the LRC? Looking back at cycle 1, you have to answer no. ”

      “This was a decent storm in cycle 1”

      So, in cycle 1 it does not fit , but yet it was a decent storm ?
      I guess I need to go back and read again to understand those 2 seemingly contradicting statements.

      • Bill in Lawrence January 8, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

        Richard:

        Happy Sunday.

        What I meant was the the strom on November 18th was pretty strong it just did not have much impact here in the KC area. So the idea of a piece of more organized energy coming out makes sense but that does not means it will be a major winter strom for this area into Oklahoma. Hope that clears up a bit what I was trying to say.

        Gary:

        I messed up the AO comment; thanks so much for pointing that out. I was going off the projections from yesterday which had some ensembles taking the AO deeply negative around the 17th. As you have stated, the modeled forecast for the AO 8-10 days out has been about as good as the KC modeled forecast for snow 8-10 days out. In this case, Hunter is correct-10 days away LOL. Today’s outlook has the AO barely at minus 1 for the 17th and that is just one ensemble; what a difference 24 hours can make in a forecast.

        One positive for me is that at least the snow has stuck around for 4 days with this particular blocking; it has been a while since I have had 3 nights at 4 or below in a row. In the December blocking the real cold only lasted 2 days; granted it was generally colder longer, but the single digits to below 0 cold only lasted one night even with the same amount of snow on the ground.

        Anyway, it really does not get much more wintery in Lawrence than these past 4 days. This part of the pattern really has surprised me with how strong the cold was. Early March may be interesting.

        Have a great afternoon

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 10:47 am - Reply

      I don’t want to ruin the excitement here, but that map is way exaggerated. I just looked and Kansas City does not even get 0.01″ liquid equivalent. That is almost all an area of trace precipitation.

      Gary

      • Richard January 8, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        You don’t want to ruin what excitement ? I don’t think any of us are excited about or want ice.

  16. Clint January 8, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

    I want nothing to do with ice. Your above comment was music to my ears!

  17. MMike January 8, 2017 at 11:04 am - Reply

    As of Sunday, Jan. 8th Bill and Gary say no winter storm for KC. Next weekend.

    Still going to be very mild for the Chiefs game as forecasted several days ago.

  18. Darrin January 8, 2017 at 11:09 am - Reply

    Mild is good for me. With Chiefs in playoffs and if it some kind of storm does move thru… my snow drivers will be coming down with flu and fake illness…

    • MMike January 8, 2017 at 11:29 am - Reply

      Darrin,

      As of the going forecast from the LRC it shouldn’t be a problem. The forecast is for very mild and no précip. Perfect for the playoff game!

      I know what you mean on the surprise illnesses that all of sudden pop up.

  19. Terry January 8, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

    I think there will be a storm / cold air in the lrc could be wrong about things

    • Terry January 8, 2017 at 11:34 am - Reply

      Because in your 12 week forecast you had a possible snow storm January 15th the week

  20. Hunter January 8, 2017 at 11:42 am - Reply

    We’re getting slammed Terry. Modelitis said so.

  21. Rockdoc January 8, 2017 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    Good Sunday Morning Gary. You had indicated that you thought a storm/system would come through on the 17th, which is Tuesday. On previous model runs it was showing up on Monday into Tuesday. I had posted 500mb figures for both Nov 14th and Nov 18th which seem to correlate to what may be expected according to the LRC.

    The latest Euro 500mb for Saturday evening is similar to both of these. On the 18th of Nov there was a high pressure area to the SE. Although the location of the low pressure zone and depth of the trough is closer to the 14th.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=500h_mslp&rh=2017010800&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=10&pl=ln&yy=2016&mm=11&dd=18&hh=00&sc=1.0&ge=640×480&pg=web

    Given that the LRC may “wobble” +/- 2 or so days, something is definitely afoot. This storm system has been showing up on the models for some time, although it shifts around on days and location.

    The only question is if the system targets our neck of the woods. If I remember correctly, the November 14th storm went south and the 18th of November storm went north through Nebraska/Iowa. I’m thinking we’ll get something, but not sure when. Hopefully no more than sleet or a couple of inches of snow.

    If the ice storm does verify with current model boundry for temps, I feel very bad for those in southern Missouri, northern Oklahoma & Arkansas and into the Appalachian region. A lot of ice, not pretty!

    PS, saw your Facebook posting. Wow, whose that other dog that jumps over your back?

  22. Rockdoc January 8, 2017 at 12:06 pm - Reply

    Guess I had too many links…I’m in mod…lol…😂😄😂

  23. Richard January 8, 2017 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    New data yet ?

  24. Kai January 8, 2017 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    So, this is a similar case where forecasters were calling for a big storm to impact that game on the east coast (not really a sports fan so don’t remember if it was football or baseball). Anyway, Gary stuck to his guns and nailed that forecast weeks or months out.

    Now we have a major ice storm on the models, and everybody is going bonkers, but Gary and the LRC is for dry and mild chiefs sunday, yes, or am I incorrect?

    Will Gary prevail?

    • Gary January 8, 2017 at 12:53 pm - Reply

      It’s not will Gary prevail, my goodness. The question is will this storm come together. There is a chance. It is supposed to be there. The big question will be how functional it ends up being.

      The new European model blasts us again with ice. We have seven days to track this one. The Chiefs game forecast is on the line!

      Gary

      • Kai January 8, 2017 at 1:38 pm - Reply

        Gary, I do appreciate that you take the time to write back and answer all of our questions. I understand you are a very busy guy, and I envy you for the work you do, while still taking the time to write back to the silly things we may say at times or all the time. Most of the excitement comes from tweaking out on the weather models. It is just a fascinating weather pattern we are in. And don’t you forget, we worship the Lezak! All hail Gary and the LRC! 🙂

  25. Clint January 8, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    Lol its life and death Lezak!

    • Kirk January 8, 2017 at 1:10 pm - Reply

      No pressure!

  26. someweatherdude January 8, 2017 at 1:11 pm - Reply

    Euro, Canadian and GFS all have different solutions right now. Canadian is the snowiest for the immediate KC area. GFS is still further south and less organized. Euro is further north/west and tons of snow, but it stays further north/west. Canadian is sort of in the middle. Interesting . . .

  27. Richard January 8, 2017 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    No ice for Sunday please
    New blog Gary ?

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