Where Will The Snow Fall Tonight? Updated!

/Where Will The Snow Fall Tonight? Updated!

Where Will The Snow Fall Tonight? Updated!

6:45 PM Update:

It was pretty fascinating, but we just found the disturbance that will help make radar exciting in the next few hours. This is a great indication of an upper level system and the snow radar echoes have rapidly responded. Take a look:

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Can you see it? Pretty neat. I am still forecasting 1 to 2 inches near KC! Let’s see if it grows in the next few hours.

Previous updates below:

5 PM Update:

Here is the late afternoon in-house model that just came out valid at 11 PM tonight:

 

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3 PM Update:

Here is our latest in house model at 41 Action News. This model has a more realistic solution into the range that I have been expecting. This is likely a 1 to 2 inch snow event, and some spots may get less. There is still a chance of a little thin band with a bit more than 2″?

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This is just not a “real” storm system. Let’s enjoy it for what it is. If we get more than an inch it will be a bonus!

Previous entry below:

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

There is a Blizzard Warning for northwest Alaska where up to four inches of snow will be likely with 50 mph winds causing visibilities to drop to near zero. Now, I am not sure how many people live in that red zone, which is the farthest northwest part of the United States, but that warning is in effect for today. Farther south across the lower 48 states there are a variety of winter storm warnings and advisories stretching from California and Oregon to Kansas City:

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-7-46-27-am

A Winter Weather Advisory is indicated in that purple color over the plains.  The Kansas City region just happens to be in the path of this fast moving system. This storm is not identifiable on the satellite and radar right now, as of 8 AM this morning. It will be coming more into focus early this evening and we will be able to see which counties will be targeted.  Here is the liquid equivalent precipitation from this mornings NAM model

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I live on the south side, so I am hoping the models are off by just a “blip”.  As is, this would be a 1/2″ to 1″ snow on the south side of the KC metro area with 2″ on the north side with a 3 to 4 inch bulls-eye over north central Missouri. Again, this is if this model is exactly right. The models are rarely exactly right, but until I see the radar this is all I have to go with at this point.

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-8-37-46-am

The above map is from the NAM model. Let’s see how the other models come in today.  Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

2017-01-05T08:18:10+00:00 January 4th, 2017|General|78 Comments

78 Comments

  1. Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 8:06 am - Reply

    I just noticed on the radar there’s already some very light snow in southern Nebraska and even over to NW Missouri.

  2. waldo weather January 4, 2017 at 8:21 am - Reply

    Fingers crossed! I love me some SNOW!

  3. Mr. Pete January 4, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Sure is cold enough to snow.

  4. Austin Braddock January 4, 2017 at 9:00 am - Reply

    In Alaska did you mean 4 inches or ft

  5. Austin Braddock January 4, 2017 at 9:01 am - Reply

    In Alaska did you mean 4 inches or ft

    • Dakota January 4, 2017 at 11:04 am - Reply

      I would imagine inches. The northern part of Alaska actually doesn’t get that much snow, it’s just super cold. The southern parts of Alaska, especially in the mountain areas by the ocean, get hundreds of inches of snow each season in some cases. You can actually have a blizzard warning with no snow falling! The wind and visibility factor just have to be there.

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2017 at 11:32 am - Reply

      No, it’s 4 inches. I looked it up on the NWS website. I know, I know, how is 4 inches impressive in any way.

      • Gary January 4, 2017 at 1:06 pm - Reply

        4″ is a lot in a dry climate! 4″ would be huge for KC.

  6. Kathy January 4, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Hmmm…I am very close to that heavier strip of snow. Of course, we will have heavier amounts NE of the metro, and then I get to work after a long, arduous drive on I-35, and my boss says, “why are you late…it barely snowed.” Hopefully, you will have things narrowed down better this evening, so I’ll watch you before I go to bed to get a better sense of how early I need to leave for work in the morning.

  7. Ksukat January 4, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

    I live in Olathe. So are we looking at a dusting? Run a snow business.

  8. stl78 January 4, 2017 at 9:29 am - Reply

    Kathy, if I were u I would just figure on leaving as if u were going to b in the 4 in strip. Worst case scenario, u are a bit early. I hate being late to anything. Up here in Se minn we are sitting at 1. Windchill advisory for up to -30. No snow in the forecast though. I hope those of u that want the snow, get it and everyone remains safe. We will b headed back to kc tomorrow after we check out the school here in winona

  9. JeepinAustin January 4, 2017 at 10:40 am - Reply

    Bring the snow!!! Deep and Drifting!

  10. Ross January 4, 2017 at 10:44 am - Reply

    Have family in Boise & Eagle, Idaho area and they have 6-10 inches of snow already on the ground and still snowing.

  11. Ndgogrl74 January 4, 2017 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Any update?

  12. Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 12:26 pm - Reply

    4km NAM, 3km NAM (which is replacing the 4km), NAM, RDPS, GEM, RAP, all have a nice little swath of 2 to 4″ of snow north of I-70. Canadian seems to be the most bullish in bringing in the the heaviest swath of 3 to 5 inches east along 36 highway across northern Kansas and into north central Missouri, with 2 to 4″ extending eastward from there into Illinois.

    • ndgogrl74 January 4, 2017 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      would you mind posting a link to those models please?

      • Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 12:43 pm - Reply

        ndgogrI74, I posted them, but that comment is in moderation, unfortunately, lol. Hopefully it gets out of there. I figured it would be moderated with all of the links I posted

        • ndgogrl74 January 4, 2017 at 12:48 pm - Reply

          Thanks – I will attempt to be patient 🙂

  13. MMike January 4, 2017 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    Good ole 1-3 inch snow in a very cold air mass, looks like that’s what we’re going to see tonight. I’ll take it!

    Models for next Sunday’s big Chiefs game:

    GFS-Para……64
    GFS 55-60 at game time, cold front near
    Canadian Model: -5 Friday morning and high of 6 next Friday. It doesn’t go out far enough but it would appear that the arctic air mass(if even close to right) will be exiting by Sunday.
    EURO: I don’t get this info so some one can fill it in that does.

    It all depends on how those air masses set up as there appears to be a possible storm in there also. (late next week into the following Monday)

    11 days to go…lot of cold air in southern Canada in the long term, if it stays there we’re golden and it will be very warm for the game. The GFS has been very warm on the last several runs for next weekend, but, the cold is not far away.

    • Richard January 4, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

      Thanks Alex
      Looks like the ski areas of CO will be in the sweet spot. Too bad those heavy snows don’t make it over the Rockies to us.

  14. Eric January 4, 2017 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    So what are the models saying for tonight?

  15. Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    As I figured…. My last comment got moderated LOL. Too many links lmao.

  16. Richard January 4, 2017 at 1:10 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Are you still going for 48 and dry for the playoff on Jan 15 ?

  17. Rockdoc January 4, 2017 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Alex, I’ll try posting just a few and see if they get through moderation. First up is the 3K NAM showing at 7am tomorrow. I picked the Kuchera snowfall amount since I think it may be a little closer due to the dry air, plus the direction of the storm. Based on the slides I had posted yesterday, storms that come from the Pac NW tend to have higher ratios.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010412&fh=25&r=us_mw&dpdt=

    Next is the HRRR at 5am. The 18z almost done so this is as far as it goes right now. This also shows Kuchera total.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010417&fh=18&r=us_mw&dpdt=

    Here is the GFS for 9am with the Kuchera.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010412&fh=27&r=us_mw&dpdt=

    If ratio is closer to 10:1 then reduce these amounts about 1/2 inch or so to get you in the ball park.

  18. Rockdoc January 4, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

    Gary….looks like Alex and I got hung up in mod due to posting of links to models…..lol….;-)

  19. Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 1:22 pm - Reply

    I’m getting impatient. I want snow RIGHT NOW!

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2017 at 2:22 pm - Reply

      LoL..that’s why they call you Snow Miser!

      • Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 2:38 pm - Reply

        I’ve got the Snow Miser song going through my head.

        • Heat Miser January 4, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

          Freeze Miser right?

    • Richard January 4, 2017 at 2:43 pm - Reply

      Doesn’t look very encouraging for Johnson County KS. But no surprise. It never was going to be much anyway.

  20. Kai January 4, 2017 at 2:00 pm - Reply

    Seems tonight’s snow is more north and east than what previous previous models suggested, no?

    St. Joe seems to be in the heavier amounts per all the models, so no more complaining from St. Joe-ans come the next snowfall after this one! 😜

    Here’s to hoping KC (Independence) gets AT LEAST a good 2 inches tonight! 🙂

    • Clint January 4, 2017 at 2:43 pm - Reply

      Looks like the Missouri side will do well!

    • Richard January 4, 2017 at 2:45 pm - Reply

      Ok now does this one show more for Johnson County ? (More than the nam you posted above)

      • Gary January 4, 2017 at 2:50 pm - Reply

        I just updated the blog with a snowfall forecast that I think makes more sense. Check it out.

        Gary

        • ndgogrl74 January 4, 2017 at 3:13 pm - Reply

          Same timing, Gary? For Jackson Co, MO.

    • Craig January 4, 2017 at 2:51 pm - Reply

      me likey that link!

  21. Hunter January 4, 2017 at 3:52 pm - Reply

    Will all the groceries I bought, it better snow! Or will it POOF in certian locations….again lol

    • Clint January 4, 2017 at 5:14 pm - Reply

      No food just beer!

  22. MMike January 4, 2017 at 3:55 pm - Reply

    Hunter,

    You keep using all those food stamps for these storms the government is going to cut you off….LOL LMAO
    ROTFLMAO.

    • Heat Miser January 4, 2017 at 4:05 pm - Reply

      LOL

    • Joe K January 4, 2017 at 4:27 pm - Reply

      MMIke,

      Don’t ya know you may hurt the little snowflakes feelings 😀

  23. Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 4:29 pm - Reply

    The storm showing up in the northern plains for Tues next week seems to be trending southward in the latest runs. on the GFS.

  24. Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    Flurry/light snow here in St. Joe has already put down a very light dusting

  25. Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    Looking at the radar, I would say the air column is saturated enough that snow flakes are falling where the returns suggest. This is a good sign in aiding snow totals. Just an observation, but im still confident in 2 to 3 inches along and just south of highway 36, with locally higher amount of near 4 inches in spots.

  26. Eric January 4, 2017 at 4:57 pm - Reply

    The new map looks like KC metro is in the heavier stuff. Any updates to the totals in the Overland Park area? Still thinking 1-2 inches?

    • Gary January 4, 2017 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      I added in the map to the blog. Let’s see how this evolves.

      GAry

  27. RickMcKC January 4, 2017 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    On the 5pm update … what do the colors mean? Are we (KC metro) now in the 3″ area?

    • Gary January 4, 2017 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      There are no 3″ areas. I am expecting wide spread 1 to 2 inches. There may still be a thin 3″ band somewhere.

      Gary

  28. Hunter January 4, 2017 at 5:32 pm - Reply

    Something tells me this is the biggest snow this year! Smiley face lol
    #kcblizzard2017

  29. David January 4, 2017 at 5:35 pm - Reply

    Hunter, I know you’re trying to be funny, but there won’t be much wind with this even if a much higher solution happened (also I know it won’t)

  30. f00dl3 January 4, 2017 at 5:57 pm - Reply

    https://www.facebook.com/photo/download/?fbid=10154689713760944&ext=1483833327&hash=AeR_2RFZG7F-Etyx

    ^ Setup looks favorable right now for us to be in a good spot based on the way this thing is popping out.

    • Heat MIser January 4, 2017 at 7:00 pm - Reply

      That link doesnt work

  31. Mr. Pete January 4, 2017 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    I’m in Saint Louis tonight. Local news predicts 2-3 inches for here – same system.

    • Gary January 4, 2017 at 6:45 pm - Reply

      Look at the radar map I just posted. It’s pretty cool as we just found the disturbance. And, this can be traced back to an upper low in the last LRC Cycle. Again, I just posted it to the top of the blog.

      Gary

  32. Kelly Lewis January 4, 2017 at 7:28 pm - Reply

    Nice dusting in St Joe

  33. SnowDays January 4, 2017 at 7:38 pm - Reply

    The high school students at the end of the day were acting like 1st graders! You’d think they had been back in school a lot longer than one day with how giddy they were even at the slim possibility of a snow day!!

    • Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 7:47 pm - Reply

      Just think how disappointed they’ll be tomorrow morning if the *don’t* get a snow day!

      • Rockdoc January 4, 2017 at 8:05 pm - Reply

        But I don’t like all those inexperienced drivers on the road. SO let the high school kids have the day off! Same goes for those 4×4 drivers who think they can stop on a dime and drive “normal” speeds.

        Gary, what does the pink color mean in new map? Not much good without values or legend…

        Sure am gald I put out birdseed this morning. Will reload the feeders tonight since tweetie birds will be hungry and need the calories the next several days 🐥🐦🐥

        • Richard January 4, 2017 at 8:48 pm - Reply

          Well said Rockdoc
          I agree. The ones who think they “can handle” one or two inches make the roads dangerous for everyone. The ones who are trying to be safe are in danger of the idiots who are being reckless. Defensive driving is the only way to make it on a good day. But even more so when there is ice or a dusting of snow. Drive defensively as though your life depends on it, because it does. Be aware of everyone if you need to be out in it.

  34. Weatherby Tom January 4, 2017 at 8:18 pm - Reply

    Nice moderate snow coming down here now, just started and things are already turning white!

  35. Michael Casteel January 4, 2017 at 8:22 pm - Reply

    Got about 1 and 1/2 up here in Maryville. Yards are turning white. Need some more to get be excited! C’Mon mother nature, bring it down on us!!!
    Michael

  36. Mike Holm January 4, 2017 at 8:26 pm - Reply

    Snowing heavily in Staley. Three-quarter to an inch an hour pace.

  37. Steve January 4, 2017 at 8:44 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Which upper low were you talking about in your previous comment. 1″ on the ground SW of Hiawatha so far as of now.

  38. Kelly Lewis January 4, 2017 at 9:18 pm - Reply

    Just started to kind of flurry off of 119 Metcalf, so not expecting over an inch here.

  39. Kurt January 4, 2017 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    1 inch on the ground just south of St Joseph, little wind and had some bigger flakes earlier so it was just clumping gently like as now globe was shaken and everything was settling back

    Filled bird feeders and got them cleaned out of any snow and staged in garage for the morning. I had about 50 cardinals up thus evening right before dark in the light snow

  40. Snow Miser January 4, 2017 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    Wow that’s a lot of cardinals! If I get 3 I consider myself lucky.

    Anyway, both the NAM and the HRRR are showing a small batch of light snow mid-morning tomorrow.

  41. Kurt January 4, 2017 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    I would trade anyone out the gold finches, they clean out my feeders in a few hours

  42. Austin Braddock January 4, 2017 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    No snow yet in Baldwin city

  43. Alex Pickman January 4, 2017 at 10:42 pm - Reply

    I am at 1.8″ here in Stewartsville, MO

  44. Alex Pickman January 5, 2017 at 12:03 am - Reply

    2″ on the dot here in Stewartsville, MO now

  45. Plowboy87 January 5, 2017 at 12:30 am - Reply

    Measured 1.75 in oak grove at the moment.

  46. Rockdoc January 5, 2017 at 12:57 am - Reply

    One plus inch here in south PV as of midnight. Snow stopped about 12:40am. Sent Gary photo on Twitter. Too bad we can’t post here 🤔

    Radar showing any more snow will go south. Not much back west either! I think it may be done unless it refires later on tonight.

  47. Steve January 5, 2017 at 7:02 am - Reply

    2.5″ Snow SW of Hiawatha. 6 degrees as of now.

  48. Kelly January 5, 2017 at 5:40 pm - Reply

    Two inches . Dearborn, MO

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