Good Morning Weather2020 Bloggers,
The year began mild and now we have a cold change that will last around five days. Severe thunderstorms raged through the deep south last night and one tornado struck a southern Alabama town killing four people last night, all from the same household. It was apparently a mobile home that got hit where these people lived. A mobile home is one of the worst structures to be in during a tornado and if there is any chance of significant severe weather, then I would make sure that the plan is to be in a safer structure during these events. It only takes a strong severe thunderstorm with a 70 mph wind to destroy a mobile home.
The high temperature in Kansas City was 43° at midnight, so today completes a fourteen day stretch of above average temperatures. The five day cold wave is now beginning and there is a chance of snow in the middle of this stretch from a fast moving wave of energy, and not a big storm. Kansas City has had only 2.3″ of snow so far and there is a chance of another small snow storm this week. Here is the European Model output for snow from EuroWX.com:
This is a disturbance that will zip across and it just happens to be targeting the Kansas City viewing area. The other models vary from a dusting to up to 1 inch of snow, with the European model showing a bit more.
The New Data:
- NAM Model: The NAM model came out with snow spreading in from the northwest during the early evening on Wednesday. This model has a dusting to 1/2″ modeled with a thin band of closer to 1″ possible near the north side of Kansas City
- GFS Model: The GFS also has a band of a dusting to almost 2″ of snow near Kansas City, centered on the north side. I would favor a little farther south position from this model depending on how strong the push of cold air ends up being.
- Canadian Model: This model only had a dusting of snow in our area
- European Model: The new Euro was slightly farther north, but still had wide spread 1 to 2 inch amounts near Kansas City, centered up near St. Joseph
Gary’s Forecast: This is a very small fast moving system that will likely produce this band of snow. It is cold enough that the snow will immediately accumulate on the roads Wednesday night, so even a half inch could create a slick mess in the area. I am likely going to make the prediction of an inch or less is possible when I am on the air tonight.
I will post an analysis of the models here later this morning.
The Big Picture:
In analyzing this mornings weather pattern and data I noticed something rather interesting. Off the west coast of each major Northern Hemisphere land mass is a high over low pattern. This is a lot to look at and I want to show you what I just saw:
If you really look closely, then you can see the upper High on the top of the map is the one in the Gulf of Alaska, and the one at the bottom of the map is the one off of the Great Britain coast. It really is fascinating and this is affecting the pattern right now. These two upper highs that have formed are being influenced by a seasonal effect of the land vs. sea contrast. The larger land masses during the winter get much colder than the air over the oceans and this land/sea effect can help create this influence on the pattern at times. It still depends on the LRC and how this pattern has set up in the westerly belt. I just found this interesting this morning and decided to share it with you. These features are forecast to break down in the next ten days due to the next part of the cycling pattern that we are moving into around mid-January.
There are a lot of factors that affect the cycling weather pattern with the LRC as the most important, the centerpiece of the the big puzzle that we are showing as organization to the chaos in that river of air above us.
This weather pattern, the one we are experiencing now and this winter, is cycling regularly. And, I think we can all agree that Kansas City is, for the third winter in a row, in a tough spot for weather excitement. So, we have to set our standards low. This next system approaching just may very well become quite exciting for a few hours on Wednesday night. If it’s under an inch I doubt there will be many school closings, but if it gets into that 1 to 2 inch range that the European model showed last night I can see a lot of school closings on Thursday morning. The timing is from 9 PM to around 6 AM Wednesday night.
Thank you for participating in this weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions and we appreciate your comments.