First Week Of 2017 Weather Set-Up

/First Week Of 2017 Weather Set-Up

First Week Of 2017 Weather Set-Up

Good afternoon Weather2020 bloggers,

There is a cold front strengthening/developing right now over the plains and a cold blast will arrive tonight and spread south and east Tuesday.  The front is not very well defined and has very little push to it. What I mean, is it is really not moving at this time and it is waiting for a wave to move across the northern plains and then it will become better organized and shift south overnight. I will be showing this on 41Action News tonight, that you can watch streaming on kshb.com.  Here is the front as of around 11:30 AM:

2

There is a band of rain moving across, with a few thunderstorms. Here is the radar image at noon:

screen-shot-2017-01-02-at-11-56-18-am

What happens next is interesting and there is only one model showing snow on Friday over parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. It is the GFS model. The other models have not yet shown this solution at all. Here is the Canadian model solution with the GFS model overlaid on top showing the difference in the flow from a snowier solution and the other models showing a phased and drier solution for Friday:

screen-shot-2017-01-02-at-11-29-28-am

Again, in the red it shows what the GFS model has in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The other thing to notice is the big upper low dropping south near the Canada/North Pacific Ocean border, or really the Inside Passage of Alaska. This storm is likely going to drop almost due south and it is the biggest development for next weeks huge warm up that needs to be monitored closely.

I am heading back into work and will look through the comments later. Let’s see what the European model shows. Happy New Year and thank you for participating in this LRC Forecast Experience.

Gary

2017-01-03T08:27:05+00:00 January 2nd, 2017|General|24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. Terry January 2, 2017 at 11:53 am - Reply

    So Gary what is your take on what you’re saying? About a snowy solution friday / Saturday/ sunday ? I noticed on the GFS 12z It shows a storm coming out of the West across the Midwest and across Kansas?

  2. Weatherby Tom January 2, 2017 at 12:43 pm - Reply

    Good, much appreciated soaking rain here for the last hour

  3. Rockdoc January 2, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Gary, I able to locate archived GFS images going back to November 6th – 8th since I think this timeframe covers the middle to later part of this week. Here is one image showing the 500mb followed by one that shows both 500mb and vort. Below these is a link to current GFS for midnight Friday. I think the GFS is onto something if we are going to use the LRC. This system has been showing up over several different model runs. Sometimes the snow would go poof, but we did have some rain back on the 6th – 7th as shown on the last link.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=20&pl=lcf&yy=2016&mm=11&dd=08&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=640×480&pg=web

    http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2017010212&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=

    http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

    Just my 2 cents worth, but something to monitor to see if the trough verifies later this week and brings in some moisture. Have a Great Day Everybody!

  4. Michael Garner January 2, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Is it just me or has half of 2017 been cloudy and rainy? Haha would love snow but any preceip in the winter is good

    • Rockdoc January 2, 2017 at 12:53 pm - Reply

      You’re too funny. First 1/2 of 2017 been cloudy-rainy! Lol…😉

  5. Rockdoc January 2, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

    Gary, I able to locate archived GFS images going back to November 6th – 8th since I think this timeframe covers the middle to later part of this week. Here is one image showing the 500mb. Below this is a link to current GFS for midnight Friday. I think the GFS is onto something if we are going to use the LRC. This system has been showing up over several different model runs. Sometimes the snow would go poof, but we did have some rain back on the 6th – 7th.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=20&pl=lcf&yy=2016&mm=11&dd=08&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=640×480&pg=web

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2017010212&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=

    Just my 2 cents worth, but something to monitor to see if the trough verifies later this week and brings in some moisture. I reposted without links to other archive site since complete links not working. Have a Great Day Everybody!

  6. Rockdoc January 2, 2017 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Gary, 2 of my comments are in mod. No big deal! But if you can, delete the first since links to UCAR aren’t working. I reposted and deleted them in the 2nd post so this is the functional posting with links 😂

    Thanks!

  7. Farmermike January 2, 2017 at 1:37 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    so if this possible weekend storm shifts north like they always seem to do that should put it in the right spot this time……. just between I-70 and the ks/neb border then if it would move east very slowly and ………..

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 1:58 pm - Reply

      I just don’t think so. The system that Rockdoc is talking about from the last cycle didn’t “want” to be here either. We need to keep monitoring it, but the models are not trending to that storm happening. We currently only have one model showing it, the GFS. This model has done okay at times this season. And, I know we could go back to the first snow of the season and I believe the GFS was the only model that had that one for a while. We are within just three to four days, so we should know very soon if the other models come on board.

      Gary

  8. ClassyCat January 2, 2017 at 3:50 pm - Reply

    Gary, what’s your call as of now for the Chiefs game on the 15th? It appears that we may be at the end of a pretty good warm up. At least for January.

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 5:13 pm - Reply

      It looks really really nice! I am going 48 and dry for now.

      Gary

  9. Kai January 2, 2017 at 5:22 pm - Reply

    1Weather app has light snow at 60% Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Yes, give or take a day or two, but isn’t the forecast on the weather app made using the LRC? Aren’t I supposed to trust it?

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 5:27 pm - Reply

      Kai,

      There is a chance of a dusting!

      Gary

  10. Terry January 2, 2017 at 5:32 pm - Reply

    Gary how come anybody hasn’t mentioned yet about the possible storm Friday Saturday or Sunday?

    • Terry January 2, 2017 at 5:34 pm - Reply

      So no body doesn’t think there will be a storm then this coming weekend? Still showing up there

      • Rod January 2, 2017 at 9:47 pm - Reply

        There is a storm for the weekend with several inches per the GFS for MO & AR but per the NWS it’s the only model showing it with no support run to run from the other models, so it’s suspect & only very slight chances put out for now. Will have to wait a few days to see if Euro or Canadian model jumps on the snow.

    • Heat MIser January 2, 2017 at 9:44 pm - Reply

      Read his comment above Terry. He said GFS shows storm for us, the others don’t.

  11. Richard January 2, 2017 at 6:15 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Looks like you are expecting a decent day for the Chiefs game, 48 degrees. Nice

    (This is not weather related but here is the Chiefs schedule for 2017.)

    Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers

    Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Houston Texans

  12. Bill in Lawrence January 2, 2017 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good eveing to you sir.

    The NAM just threw us our curve ball; not much a curve mind you, but the 0Z is showing something for Wednesday night where the 12Z did not. We look to be on the far SW edge here in Lawrence, but looks like Saint Joe could be in the bulls eye of it.

    Interesting little development. Considering I thought we would be dry all week As this was kind of an non event for Lawrence in cycle 1, a dusting to an inch sounds awesome!! My gosh how snow starved have we been these past few winters where I am getting excited about the possibility of a dusting to an inch. Possibility mind you as this is for sure not Excalibur lodged in the stone.

    Have a great evening

    Bill In Washington Creek in Lawrence

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 9:48 pm - Reply

      I will take a 1″ curve ball. I liked it. We will discuss this in the morning, and I am on the air right now with an update.

      Gary

  13. Mr. Pete January 2, 2017 at 9:37 pm - Reply

    Drove to Saint Louis today in a heavy fog not the best of conditions…

  14. Kai January 2, 2017 at 10:24 pm - Reply

    Are we warming above freezing this weekend or not? Seeing sources calling for some “big” snow for states south of us this weekend. That just can’t be true if a warming trend is supposed to commence. I don’t know who or what to believe any more. I NEED SNOW NOW! Thank you.

  15. Craig January 3, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Latest NAM (18z) now has 3″ bullseye right on KC from Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

  16. Craig January 3, 2017 at 3:55 pm - Reply

    18z GFS confirming the slightly higher amounts but also shifting slightly north.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

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