Happy New Year Weather2020 Bloggers,
We hope everyone had a safe New Year’s Eve. I was up at midnight, and now I am up early on New Year’s Day, then I may take a nap. Thank you for your wonderful supporting thoughts on my losing my wonderful dog and best friend Breezy. She was an incredible dog and part of my life for the past eleven years and the pain is rather deep, but I know I will feel better soon. She will forever live in the book, “It’s A Sunny Life”. This book has a great weather section in the back and it is about Breezy, Storm, and Windy (my previous three weather dogs) adopting Sunny and going on an adventure.
Well, it wasn’t really a December to Remember was it? Take a look at what happened in Kansas City during this last month of 2016:
As you can see, after one very cold stretch the year ended with eleven straight days of above average temperatures.
December Stats in KC:
- 15 above average days
- 14 below average days
- 2 average days
- 2.3 inches of snow
- Below average rainfall by 0.34″. The total was 1.19″
- Highest temperatures: 65° on Christmas Day
- Lowest temperature: -9° on December 18th
- The average temperature was 30.1° or just barely below average at -1.4°
Remember November? As much as some forecasts for a very cold December came out it didn’t turn out that way. The computer models are so flawed. If you go back to the middle of our cold spell last month you may actually remember December as a month where forecasts from so many sources were predicting the cold weather to continue. What model had a forecast of the last eleven days of the month being above average. I believe none of them did, well, except one. Our LRC model. Take a look at this:
This forecast chart is using our LRC computer model that we have been developing for over a year. It did not do so well with the strength of the cold outbreak, but look how well it did with the above average temperatures at the end of the year. Why do you think I had confidence that it would not be a December to remember in KC. The forecast has been verifying, but it’s still not perfect.
I picked a zip code out west in Los Angeles to see how the Weather2020 projection using the LRC did. Take a look:
This projection is for HDD’s or Heating Degree Days. Just look at the forecast from 60 days ago that is verifying. These two forecasts were made in October. Energy customers can use this information to help make wise and profitable decisions. Agriculture and other wide ranging businesses can utilize our LRC forecast models as well. This is just showing two examples, but we are now providing this information for every zip code in the United States. We have been testing and back testing for years now and this model is working well. Combine this automated system with our team of meteorologists updates and our videos, can you see the value? This is what we have been working on and testing with a few of our business customers. Our system has been beating what the average is for each month over 90% of the time.
The Developing January Pattern:
The models have not done well at all, but there has been a big trend that we have been waiting for and the models are coming into consensus on as of this morning. This is the European model from last night. A big warm up will happen in the first two days of the new year, and then there will be an Arctic air mass heading south by Tuesday. This part of the pattern was forecast by us in the winter forecast as you can see on our site, just click on it if you want to read though it again. We just weren’t sure when these cold blasts would arrive, but now we know, and we also know when it will warm up and this is why we stated a few weeks ago to Remember November. That part of the pattern that was quite warm will be cycling through this month. We will be getting the January version of the LRC this time, so let’s see what the differences end up being.
The mean ridge, the long term long-wave ridge that is a huge part of this years pattern will be showing up three or four times in the next two to three weeks. This ridge is one of the biggest reasons why there have been a lack of strong and organized storm systems this so far this season. If this forecast verifies, then the cold blast this week will only last around four days.
We will look ahead this week. Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience blog and HAPPY NEW YEAR!