Happy New Year

/Happy New Year

Happy New Year

Happy New Year Weather2020 Bloggers,

We hope everyone had a safe New Year’s Eve. I was up at midnight, and now I am up early on New Year’s Day, then I may take a nap.  Thank you for your wonderful supporting thoughts on my losing my wonderful dog and best friend Breezy.  She was an incredible dog and part of my life for the past eleven years and the pain is rather deep, but I know I will feel better soon. She will forever live in the book, “It’s A Sunny Life”. This book has a great weather section in the back and it is about Breezy, Storm, and Windy (my previous three weather dogs) adopting Sunny and going on an adventure.

Well, it wasn’t really a December to Remember was it?  Take a look at what happened in Kansas City during this last month of 2016:

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-7-46-21-am

As you can see, after one very cold stretch the year ended with eleven straight days of above average temperatures.

December Stats in KC:

  • 15 above average days
  • 14 below average days
  • 2 average days
  • 2.3 inches of snow
  • Below average rainfall by 0.34″. The total was 1.19″
  • Highest temperatures:  65° on Christmas Day
  • Lowest temperature: -9° on December 18th
  • The average temperature was 30.1° or just barely below average at -1.4°

Remember November?  As much as some forecasts for a very cold December came out it didn’t turn out that way. The computer models are so flawed. If you go back to the middle of our cold spell last month you may actually remember December as a month where forecasts from so many sources were predicting the cold weather to continue.  What model had a forecast of the last eleven days of the month being above average. I believe none of them did, well, except one. Our LRC model. Take a look at this:

6

This forecast chart is using our LRC computer model that we have been developing for over a year. It did not do so well with the strength of the cold outbreak, but look how well it did with the above average temperatures at the end of the year.  Why do you think I had confidence that it would not be a December to remember in KC. The forecast has been verifying, but it’s still not perfect.

I picked a zip code out west in Los Angeles to see how the Weather2020 projection using the LRC did. Take a look:

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-7-59-07-am

This projection is for HDD’s or Heating Degree Days.  Just look at the forecast from 60 days ago that is verifying. These two forecasts were made in October.  Energy customers can use this information to help make wise and profitable decisions. Agriculture and other wide ranging businesses can utilize our LRC forecast models as well. This is just showing two examples, but we are now providing this information for every zip code in the United States.  We have been testing and back testing for years now and this model is working well. Combine this automated system with our team of meteorologists updates and our videos, can you see the value? This is what we have been working on and testing with a few of our business customers. Our system has been beating what the average is for each month over 90% of the time.

The Developing January Pattern:

The models have not done well at all, but there has been a big trend that we have been waiting for and the models are coming into consensus on as of this morning.  This is the European model from last night. A big warm up will happen in the first two days of the new year, and then there will be an Arctic air mass heading south by Tuesday. This part of the pattern was forecast by us in the winter forecast as you can see on our site, just click on it if you want to read though it again.  We just weren’t sure when these cold blasts would arrive, but now we know, and we also know when it will warm up and this is why we stated a few weeks ago to Remember November. That part of the pattern that was quite warm will be cycling through this month. We will be getting the January version of the LRC this time, so let’s see what the differences end up being.

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-8-16-02-am

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-8-16-17-am

The mean ridge, the long term long-wave ridge that is a huge part of this years pattern will be showing up three or four times in the next two to three weeks. This ridge is one of the biggest reasons why there have been a lack of strong and organized storm systems this so far this season.  If this forecast verifies, then the cold blast this week will only last around four days.

We will look ahead this week. Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience blog and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Gary

2017-01-03T08:27:34+00:00 January 1st, 2017|General|28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. Dakota January 1, 2017 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Sorry about your loss, Gary. I lost my cat Butch on the 18th of December. I got him when he was a kitten and he lived to be more than 15 years old. Always a difficult time to lose a member of the family.

    • Gary January 1, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

      Thank you Dakota, yes a very tough time. Having Sunny helps a lot! She was there when Breezy died and I think that helped her with closure. I really watched her experience it and I am convinced she has an understanding, on her doggy level, of what happened.

      Gary

      • Patti January 1, 2017 at 9:23 am - Reply

        I totally believe that dogs do understand if they see what is happening. It makes a huge difference. Sunny will be good comfort for you.

  2. Bill in Lawrence January 1, 2017 at 8:22 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good frosty New Year’s morning to you sir. First off, it is great to read your blog this morning. I can only imagine that it is tough to truly focus on this this morning, but so glad to see it. 🙂

    We hit 16 last night and the lakes, ponds and creeks all froze back over solid this morning. What is interesting, is that if you look at the 0Z GFS last night may be close to as cold as we get for the entire week. That said, I wound up close to 10 degrees colder last night than what the GFS or NAM had forecasted so I would guess that where I live with optimal cooling I bet we hit the upper single digits one morning this week.

    Another little interesting tidbit is that while the days have been warm overall especially as compared to average, I have been below freezing every night since Christmas night and last night was my third night in the teens. I think it shows just how dry this part of the pattern really is as we have had perfect cooling nights this past week. It will be interesting to see how dry this part is in the summer. We have had a couple of fronts this week so wonder if they can do anything in cycles 4-7 or if this past week combined with the warm up coming will be when summer really cranks full force with little to no relief.

    I really have not looked at the models regarding this week accept for the timing of the front tomorrow, but my cursory look last night showed very little moisture so it looks like this New Years/Halloween part of the pattern will just produce a 3-4 day cold shot before the warm up commences. It will be interesting to see just how warm we can get in this next part of the pattern. It could be blunted somewhat due to the fact that it is January, but looking at it historically, we can have 70’s in January so if we hit 70 between the 10th of January and the 21st, I would not be surprised at all.

    Will be interesting to see what the end of cycle 2 and the beginning of cycle 3 offer when the winter window begins to really open back up. Who knew, maybe this week will wind up throwing a curve ball and we can squeeze out some type of winter event. The possibilities are of course there, it just looks as of now like that in cycle 2, this little cold part will stay mainly dry.

    Happy New Years everyone.

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawerence

    • Gary January 1, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

      Bill,

      I just finished the blog. We need a really good curve ball!

      Gary

      • Bill in Lawrence January 1, 2017 at 9:58 am - Reply

        Gary:

        Awesome write up!!! Very informative!!! I think we know that this cold blast has about 3-4 days worth of legs before the real warm up begins. As you said, it will be interesting to see what the January/Cycle 2 version of the warm up looks like. There are some fronts in there so I would guess we have a day or two of more normal temps. but as I said above, it would not surprise me at all to see us make a run at 70 degrees in this time frame.

        I love what you above. We do indeed need a curve ball. While I do think in spring and summer we will be okay, this entire winter pattern of this LRC needs to throw us a curve ball. We have seen the fast balls and while they can bring cold, we need the curve ball to bring more than .95 of moisture over 30 days with the cold. 🙂

        Hope you get a good rest today.

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  3. Clint January 1, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

    Go Chiefs! Heat, get the Broncos in line today they need to win!

    • Heat MIser January 1, 2017 at 4:43 pm - Reply

      Hee hee…Broncos up by 17 at half. 😉

  4. SnowDays January 1, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

    Gary, sorry about your loss, but you have such a great outlook on life.
    I had a suspicion that you guys were working on a computer model but I’m excited to hear about it!

  5. Mr. Pete January 1, 2017 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Hi Gary. I wanted to say Happy New Year to you and that I hope you are doing better after your recent loss of Breezy. Thanks for all that you do here and I’m looking forward to sharing 2017 with everyone on this blog.

  6. Richard January 1, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    So sorry to hear about Breezy. Not easy to lose a pet and so suddenly.
    My condolences to you.

    Ready for some snow after the warnup leves us. Mybe end of Jan or middle Feb ?

  7. Chris Paxton January 1, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Very sorry for your loss. I can certainly relate on how big a role a pet can have in one’s life. I have a border collie who I’ve had since 2000 when she was a puppy. This dog has been there through many highs and many lows in my life and is always there to greet me with a dog kiss and brush up against my legs every time I get home. They can always tell when you are feeling down and a little extra attention. Every day she’ll greet me and sit right next to my recliner, as they want nothing more than to be with their person! There is absolutely nothing more faithful than a dog! I know that she is not going to be around much longer but we will enjoy every day we have left (she still gets around good for an old girl)!!! I love your passion for your pets and can see how important they are to you. Our pets are truly a blessing from above and you have been blessed with many great dogs over the years and they were blessed to have a dog dad like you that returns their love to them as it should be! My thoughts are with you friend.

  8. Richard January 1, 2017 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Chiefs related tidbit listening to radio
    Just heard that the last Chief to score 4 touchdowns in a season against the Broncos was Otis Taylor. Wow. That is where Tyreke Hill is now.
    Hill is more consistnt than Dante Hall was.

  9. Rockdoc January 1, 2017 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    Happy New Year Gary and Weather 2020 bloggers! 🎆🎊🎆 Here’s looking to a Great 2017 LRC. Neat graphics Gary with your computer model. Looks like the LRC tracked well in terms of heating degrees for LA. I really think you should put in for that competition being sponsored by the Bureau of Reclamation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/22/this-crowdsourcing-government-contest-hopes-to-nail-long-range-forecasting/?utm_term=.17fa4357fb48

    It would be the perfect feather for your Weather 2020 🎩 and for your team!

    Have a great day everyone, and go Chiefs and Broncos!!!

  10. Rockdoc January 2, 2017 at 8:21 am - Reply

    Good Monday morning Gary. I want to report a problem with your new web site. I wanted to reread your blog’s back in early November, which would be related to the LRC for this week. Unfortunately none of the graphics/figures nor your videos load. I checked using both my Nexus Notepad and Samsung phone. On the video box for Sunday November 6th it says “Error loading this resource”. The figures have a generic type gif box.

    Maybe your computer guru can fix this? Thanks!

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      I will ask our tech team this week and see if we can get those back in there. I am not sure what happened?

      Gary

  11. Bill in Lawrence January 2, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Gary:
    Good March foggy morning to you sir. Wow-we actually have a cloudy sky this morning. I think it has been 8 days since I have seen a true lower level cloud nor do I think my dew point ever made it into the 30’s. No doubt that this has been a truly dry 8 day stretch.

    A few random thoughts this morning.

    Looking at the surface charts this morning, I think the front is currently located just east of Colby, Kansas at the moment. Guidance is showing the front/wind shift line through here around 7:00 tonight so it will be interesting to see if it comes through earlier today.

    Regarding winter weather, it certainly appears that the New Year’s/Halloween part is not going to produce a winter event in cycle 2 unless things really change in the models today. Can this part catch lightening in a bottle in early March? Maybe the front from Friday can be a bit stronger and the cold air could be stronger? Maybe a 20% chance? A betting person would have to bet that this part of the pattern is not going to produce one. I was hoping we would get lucky as the cold air will for sure be here, but not the moisture. Such is winter in KC and more so, such is the winter of LRC 2016-2017. For a winter weather enthusiast, you have to now hang your hat on the last 6-10 days of cycle 2 and the first 10 days of cycle 3. Yes, there is maybe one set up in the warm phase but one would have to argue that slim has just left town on that chance.

    While the New Year’s/Halloween part does not look to produce a winter event, I do think it needs to watched for the spring and summer. We are seeing yet another warm air overriding a colder drier air mass. Could this morning in May produce an area of showers and thunderstorms? There are several of these types of set ups in this LRC which is why I do not think we will have a repeat of 1980 and 2012 this summer. Oh it is going to be blistering hot and dry for some decent stretches even more than a normal summer here, but I do think there are enough set up and players that can bring relief. The New Year’s/Halloween is just such a set up.

    All the above said, looking at both cycles 1 and 2, we seem to have about 30-35 days of each cycle where we are really going to struggle to get moisture. This past 8 days is a great example of that. In the summer, we will most likely really cook in those dry stretches. It will be interesting for sure to see how the 12-15 days after the New Year’s/Halloween part play out in this cycle before we return to the colder stormier parts around the end of January. If that stretch is as dry as these past 8 days, or as dry as in cycle 1, that will be truly telling. This past 8 day stretch and that 12-15 day stretch is probably when we will make our runs at a 100 degrees this summer.

    One final thing I thought about this morning. Since November 19th, I have maybe had 10 nights above freezing which to me has made this a stronger winter than last winter. Most of that has to do with how dry we have been in stretches and us having optimal cooling at night, but it got me thinking that I would respectfully argue that this pattern can produce some late freezes in the rural areas. I would not be surprised when this post-Christmas part returns in April, that I do not have a late freeze from it. Lawrence proper will not, but I could see me here having a low of 27 or 28 while Lawrence itself is around 33 or 34. Maybe something to watch.

    Just a few random thoughts on the second day of 2017. Time to follow the front. 

    Have a great Monday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

      Bill,

      The front will likely be waiting on the northern branch wave to our north to pass by and force it through, so it could take close to midnight. It will be interesting to watch.

      I will be writing up a new blog later this morning.

      Gary

  12. Richard January 2, 2017 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Gary your icon is still not there.

    Will we will see snow by the end of Jan ?

    I still cannot find the 12 week forecast on here. Help ?
    .

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

      The 12 week is on the 1Weather tab. Click on the 1Weather tab or pan down to 1Weather and our 12 week is there. On the icon, I will look into that. I think I know what you are talking about.

      Gary

      • Richard January 2, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

        Gary
        Thanks I found it.
        Wish the zip code box was at top of this page like it was in the other format.
        Can the box be added here on the blog as well ? (2 places ? )

        • Dobber January 2, 2017 at 10:15 am - Reply

          Are you going to get an icon Richard?

          • Richard January 2, 2017 at 4:02 pm - Reply

            Dobber
            Man, there you go again. Knock it off.
            I guess the New year will be the same old thing with you.
            I and others have mentioned the missing icon to Gary because it makes it harder to see his replies.

  13. Mr. Pete January 2, 2017 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Just confirmed that I can’t see your weather 2020 icon either Gary. When you post.

  14. Hunter January 2, 2017 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Big snows a comin’ Lol

  15. RobertCali January 2, 2017 at 11:22 am - Reply

    Are the 12-week forecasts now only going to be available on the APP and not on this website?

    • Gary January 2, 2017 at 11:34 am - Reply

      Robert,

      Click on the 1Weather App and it brings you to the 12 Week forecasts. So, it’s there, it is just sort of hidden. We will look into adding it in more prominently. We have a lot of things we are working on.

      Gary

  16. Alex Pickman January 2, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Just had pea sized hail here in Stewartsville, MO. I believe my buddy Jacob sent you a picture, Gary.

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