Good evening Weather2020 bloggers,
It has been a great discussion in today’s blog comments. Thank you for participating. This storm is about to begin it’s main phase of the storm. A few of you had discussed the snow in western Missouri on the RUC model. Well, it is likely wrong:
As I said this morning, this storm is strong, and it is taking a perfect track that in any other year would end up in a foot of snow near KC. And, there are solutions out there still showing this type of an amount. We have one big problem, however:
This map shows the flow, temperatures, and moisture at around 10,000 feet. The moisture is actually an average humidity over a larger layer. Look at where the zero line is located. It just won’t snow where it is above zero at this level. It doesn’t mean that this is right, remember, as this is just a computer model. So, here we are just a few hours away from this storm kicking into gear.
So, what does this mean? It depends on where you live. For Kansas City, nothing has changed yet from the time-line I put in the previous blog entry. I will update this time-line early on Monday:
Weather Forecast Time-Line For Kansas City:
- Now to 7 PM tonight: Dry for the Chiefs game, but cold and windy! (This already verified and the Chiefs won their 9th in a row!)
- 7 PM to 7 AM: Heavy rain, freezing rain, and sleet move in. Most of the precipitation is likely to be freezing rain or sleet. The snow line will be way out to the west and northwest. Some significant icing and sleet accumulation is likely. If it’s sleet there could be 1 to 3 inches of just sleet which would coat every surface. If it’s freezing rain, then there could be enough ice to cause power outages and other problems.
- 7 AM to Noon Monday: Sleet or freezing rain continues that will gradually change to snow
- Noon to 7 PM Monday: The mixture likely changes to snow with accumulations from 1 to 5″ possible depending on when it changes over, and this will come on top of sleet and freezing rain
I am planning on getting another full blog started early in the morning Monday. I am on Pacific time here in Vegas.