Quick Evening Update

/Quick Evening Update

Quick Evening Update

Good evening Weather2020 bloggers,

It has been a great discussion in today’s blog comments. Thank you for participating. This storm is about to begin it’s main phase of the storm. A few of you had discussed the snow in western Missouri on the RUC model. Well, it is likely wrong:

1

As I said this morning, this storm is strong, and it is taking a perfect track that in any other year would end up in a foot of snow near KC. And, there are solutions out there still showing this type of an amount. We have one big problem, however:

4

This map shows the flow, temperatures, and moisture at around 10,000 feet. The moisture is actually an average humidity over a larger layer. Look at where the zero line is located. It just won’t snow where it is above zero at this level. It doesn’t mean that this is right, remember, as this is just a computer model. So, here we are just a few hours away from this storm kicking into gear.

So, what does this mean? It depends on where you live. For Kansas City, nothing has changed yet from the time-line I put in the previous blog entry. I will update this time-line early on Monday:

Weather Forecast Time-Line For Kansas City:

  • Now to 7 PM tonight: Dry for the Chiefs game, but cold and windy! (This already verified and the Chiefs won their 9th in a row!)
  • 7 PM to 7 AM: Heavy rain, freezing rain, and sleet move in. Most of the precipitation is likely to be freezing rain or sleet. The snow line will be way out to the west and northwest. Some significant icing and sleet accumulation is likely. If it’s sleet there could be 1 to 3 inches of just sleet which would coat every surface. If it’s freezing rain, then there could be enough ice to cause power outages and other problems.
  • 7 AM to Noon Monday: Sleet or freezing rain continues that will gradually change to snow
  • Noon to 7 PM Monday: The mixture likely changes to snow with accumulations from 1 to 5″ possible depending on when it changes over, and this will come on top of sleet and freezing rain

I am planning on getting another full blog started early in the morning Monday. I am on Pacific time here in Vegas.

IMG_0277 (1)

Gary

2017-01-16T07:05:39+00:00 December 27th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. Derek December 27, 2015 at 6:48 pm - Reply

    So Gary what’s this mean for KC?

    • Gary December 27, 2015 at 7:02 pm - Reply

      I put it into the blog. I will write up a full blog in a few hours. Let’s see what the new data shows.

      Gary

  2. Alex December 27, 2015 at 6:51 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    What are your thoughts with the latest RAP/RUC runs (18-23Z) showing snow as far South as St. Joseph through the early morning tomorrow (to the North of the sleet line)? It seems to be a narrower band of sleet/fzra than the NAM and forecasters have been predicting.

    Thanks!

    Alex in St. Joseph

    • Alex Pickman December 27, 2015 at 7:26 pm - Reply

      Just to avoid confusion. My comments will always be under the name “Alex Pickman” LOL.

      We are both Alex’s in St. Joe haha

  3. Alex December 27, 2015 at 6:54 pm - Reply

    Other quick question! I just looked at Topeka’s 0Z sounding. There’s only a tiny warm nose about 50mb wide that’s warmer than 0C. What effect does the depth of the warm nose have on precipitation? Will a narrower nose above freezing produce frozen precip with lower density at the surface?

    Thanks!

    • Bill in Lawrence December 27, 2015 at 7:03 pm - Reply

      Alex:

      Where did you find the Topeka sounding? I don’t think the NCEP is updated yet…

      Thanks so much….

      Bill in Lawrence

    • MikeL December 27, 2015 at 7:43 pm - Reply

      I just saw that on the site I use and that TOP sounding has sleet written all over it. Need that warm nose to cool below freezing to get the snow going here in T-town.

  4. Dave December 27, 2015 at 6:58 pm - Reply

    whats that mean

  5. Dale December 27, 2015 at 7:03 pm - Reply

    I’m feeling more vindicated by the hour. I predicted this 5 days ago. I said if you follow the LRC, you already know the outcome….and here I sit tonight. Yep, it feels great. Drive to Des Moines now, so you can see accumulating snow.

    Go Rain! I told ya so!

    • Joe December 27, 2015 at 8:48 pm - Reply

      Dale,

      You are obviously a trouble maker and fortunately, Gary does have control of this blog so you wont be allowed to expand on your already sarcastic/antagonistic behavior.

      BTW, your “vindication” must be self soothing as this does not seem to be shaping up to be all rain as you have been stating all along

  6. Waldo weather December 27, 2015 at 7:05 pm - Reply

    Going to be a long night radar watching

  7. Alice December 27, 2015 at 7:07 pm - Reply

    How does accuweather know that it will start snowing in Olathe in 28 min ???

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/olathe-ks/66061/minute-weather-forecast/328849

    • Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 7:13 pm - Reply

      It’s estimating when it will arrive based on the radar.

  8. Bob December 27, 2015 at 7:08 pm - Reply

    Lol. Look at the real radar Alice

    • Alice December 27, 2015 at 7:17 pm - Reply

      It says “snow starting in 26 min”……not rain, not ice, not sleet.
      I only go there for laughs now and then.
      Now they have a “new” crystal ball I guess. Not any more accurate than the old one.
      I was chuckling when I saw that, so of course I had to click to see it.

      • Dale December 27, 2015 at 8:20 pm - Reply

        The 00z NAM shows a broad swath of snow again. Who’d a thunk it?….all NW of KC!!!
        WOOOHOOOO

  9. Jack December 27, 2015 at 7:14 pm - Reply

    So, Gary, you are not lowering your snow totals? You still believe we will get a window for snow?

    Waiting for the storm to organize on radar, looking to see where the true comma head will form.. Haven’t seen it yet.

  10. Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 7:18 pm - Reply

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/live-snow-piles-up-in-new-mexi/54428497

    Check this out…shows a big bad tornado in Arkansas today and a ten foot snow drift in the Tx panhandle

    • Dobber December 27, 2015 at 7:30 pm - Reply

      That doesn’t look real to me but wow!

  11. L.B December 27, 2015 at 7:29 pm - Reply

    still a few, and I mean very few snow flakes here near Hillsdale lake. could it be that this will be all snow? or will it change over? I was in olathe earlier and had a few flakes hit me at home depot

  12. L.B December 27, 2015 at 7:36 pm - Reply

    not quite sold on the forecast but I could be and probably am wrong

  13. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 7:41 pm - Reply

    Sprinkling here in blue springs 33°

  14. Skylar December 27, 2015 at 8:07 pm - Reply

    Getting some light precipitation that looks like small snowflakes or freezing drizzle by JoCo executive. 31 degrees.

    • Skylar December 27, 2015 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      Light freezing rain

  15. L.B December 27, 2015 at 8:13 pm - Reply

    it wants to snow ! Now will it/

  16. Mike December 27, 2015 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    Just some boring light rain in OP. 31 degrees. What a waste of moisture.

    Mike

  17. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 8:15 pm - Reply

    At least we know the atmosphere is saturated enough that the precip on radar is actually falling and not just virga!!

  18. LS Mike December 27, 2015 at 8:21 pm - Reply

    Sleeting in Lee’s Summit

  19. Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    The brick patio and the grill are icing over out here is Lee’s Summit. Light rain mixed with what feels like very small sleet coming down now for over an hour at least that know of.

  20. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 8:29 pm - Reply

    34 here. I don’t think it will go below freezing tonight . When is the next storm due? Mid January?

    • CRW December 27, 2015 at 8:30 pm - Reply

      That’s what I’ve been asking all along. LOL.

  21. Bill in Lawrence December 27, 2015 at 8:30 pm - Reply

    Good evening everybody….

    Again….please note that this is the observations of a hobbyist on a good day!!!

    Well, the correction on the NAM finally happened….it is now taking the upper level low into central Arkansas ands then NE to Saint Louis….honestly it is almost too far south and east for me here in Lawerence. The heavier precip the 12Z was showing is now east of KC…this run also brings in much colder air at the surface with the freeze line setting up well south of KC by 10 tonight…..really, it looks very similar to the radar trends right now I think…..Lawrence will be on the edge of the heavier precip according to the NAM and again….the radar trends support that….

    I am going just off of the 500 and surface outputs and 850 outputs…I am not looking at any Radar simulations etc.

    One final observation…whatever precip that falls with this storm will not be plain old rain accept maybe for the first 20 minuets….this is the December version of this storm and we are in the winter component of it…even on this run, it is the biggest winter event we have seen here since February 2014….

    Again just my thoughts but man the NAM went south and east with this thing….

    Bill in Lawrence

  22. Alice December 27, 2015 at 8:30 pm - Reply

    Lightly sleeting in E. Olathe….
    But looking at radar there seems to be a dryslot just to the South and west?
    Will it fill in ?

  23. Skylar December 27, 2015 at 8:35 pm - Reply

    EAX also just said on Twitter and Facebook that the latest data would shift things more east. We could go from 3-6″ of snow to significant icing in less than 25 miles, with that transition possibly going directly through the city.

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 8:48 pm - Reply

      Per Skylar off of Twitter…would love to hear Gary’s thoughts on this.

      Taking a look at 00Z sounding data shows a very pronounced warm nose
      over southern Missouri, but lower in the atmosphere than models had
      predicted it to be (peaks out at 850 hPa instead of 800 hPa). Wind
      flow lower in the atmosphere favors this warm air to spread more
      north-northeast instead of the north-northwest trajectories further
      up aloft. This could delay the onset of warm air aloft over western
      MO and northeast KS, so that the transition from snow and sleet over
      to freezing rain may not occur across the I-35 corridor until 12Z or
      later, after several hours of mostly snow and a little sleet could
      accumulate to several inches. RAP has been hinting at this colder
      possibility and new NAM trickling in seems to be trending much colder
      aloft as well. Will likely need to increase snow/sleet amounts quite
      a bit for the I-35 corridor and points northwest, where 3″ to 8″ of
      snow isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Further complicating
      things is the fact that precipitation may obtain a convective element
      toward sunrise, right as the precipitation changeover is occurring.
      If this leads to thundersnow, as could happen just northwest of KC,
      this could lead to snow rates of 2″ per hour or greater, but if it’s
      falling as sleet (or even graupel/hail) that will cut back on snow
      amounts quite a bit. Will continue to watch model data trickle in but
      a new forecast to increase snow amounts near and northwest of I-35
      will likely be coming out shortly.

  24. Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 8:36 pm - Reply

    WIBW Meteorologist in Topeka talking about KC temps to be colder than expected, thus less sleet and more snow with heaviest band shifting East…very interesting. Listen to the whole video.

    http://www.wibw.com/home/headlines/Winter-weather-likely-Saturday-night-through-early-next-week-363450111.html

    • Clint December 27, 2015 at 8:46 pm - Reply

      National weather service in KC saying temps trending cooler than expected will update soon. According to their post on facebook

  25. Jason December 27, 2015 at 8:37 pm - Reply

    Always enjoy reading your comments Bill. I live just south of Lawrence and work in town so nice to hear your perspective. Wish we could get some snow. Hoping for less freezing rain at the very least.

  26. MikeL December 27, 2015 at 8:51 pm - Reply

    Forecast update discussion from NWS in KC…

    .UPDATE…
    Issued at 800 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

    Taking a look at 00Z sounding data shows a very pronounced warm nose
    over southern Missouri, but lower in the atmosphere than models had
    predicted it to be (peaks out at 850 hPa instead of 800 hPa). Wind
    flow lower in the atmosphere favors this warm air to spread more
    north-northeast instead of the north-northwest trajectories further
    up aloft. This could delay the onset of warm air aloft over western
    MO and northeast KS, so that the transition from snow and sleet over
    to freezing rain may not occur across the I-35 corridor until 12Z or
    later, after several hours of mostly snow and a little sleet could
    accumulate to several inches. RAP has been hinting at this colder
    possibility and new NAM trickling in seems to be trending much colder
    aloft as well. Will likely need to increase snow/sleet amounts quite
    a bit for the I-35 corridor and points northwest, where 3″ to 8″ of
    snow isn`t out of the realm of possibility. Further complicating
    things is the fact that precipitation may obtain a convective element
    toward sunrise, right as the precipitation changeover is occurring.
    If this leads to thundersnow, as could happen just northwest of KC,
    this could lead to snow rates of 2″ per hour or greater, but if it`s
    falling as sleet (or even graupel/hail) that will cut back on snow
    amounts quite a bit. Will continue to watch model data trickle in but
    a new forecast to increase snow amounts near and northwest of I-35
    will likely be coming out shortly.

  27. Jack December 27, 2015 at 8:51 pm - Reply

    Gary, I am interested to here what you have to say about these “colder temperatures” and “shift east”. Are you expecting higher snow totals?? I don’t have a feel for it right now.

  28. heat miser December 27, 2015 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri – posted on Facebook
    51 mins ·

    As precipitation spreads northwest into the region this evening, we would appreciate knowing what kind of precipitation is falling at your location.

    As conditions seem to be trending a bit cooler, we may begin shifting the forecast more toward snow and sleet and less ice for areas near I-35 and points northwest. We’ll have an updated forecast in an hour or two.

  29. Ross December 27, 2015 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    We also have another index in our favor that will encourage more snow. Go LLTI! Kind of wish I was home in KC to experience it, but will see what the storm does in the quad cities.

  30. Chris Paxton December 27, 2015 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    Bill in Lawrence,
    I’m a newbie on this site, I read everything but have only posted once. I enjoy everyones enthusiasm of weather! My kids say I’m a weather nerd…they’re right lol. I live down in SedaLia (MO) I noticed you said there is more cold air then was first anticipated with this storm and it’s sliding east more….do you think it slides far enough east to give us some exciting weather? By exciting weather I mean snow and or the possibility of ice. Thanks,
    Chris Paxton

    • Jack December 27, 2015 at 9:04 pm - Reply

      We are supposed to get a bunch of sleet regardless of any shift so yes there is a good chance for exciting weather, now how much snow?? That is the question. Eyes to the temperatures and the radar. Let’s watch this storm evolve.

      • Chris Paxton December 28, 2015 at 12:27 am - Reply

        Jack, thanks for the info. The last time I checked we had 36° in Sedalia….hopefully the temperature drops a few more degrees.

  31. Dale December 27, 2015 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    I don’t see any more snow on the 00z NAM. This storm is bringing warm air into our region. NW MO looks to get a decent snow. If Gary sees something different, why wouldn’t he say something.

  32. f00dl3 December 27, 2015 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Freezing Rain in Lenexa near the old town area right now. 31F.

  33. Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 8:58 pm - Reply

    Freezing rain falling here in Waldo. 31 out.

  34. Kurt December 27, 2015 at 8:58 pm - Reply

    That’s very confusing to me, even a shift south and east, there is a huge winter storm warning area to the north and west of St Joseoh and Kansas City. How much of a shift and what would be the snow totals?

    The entire state of Iowa is in a warning except a watch in the far northwest corner

    Just curious to see and guess it’s wait and watch.

    • Alex December 27, 2015 at 9:03 pm - Reply

      We’re talking about 30-50 mile shifts that would move the warm nose NE rather than NW. For the Western portion of the storm, the comma head is hundreds of miles across so that snow is pretty guaranteed as long as the low doesn’t zip out of the area too quickly. The real question marks are on where this warm nose pushes in and paints a band of ZR and Sleet probably no wider than 50 miles but that follows the path of the low.

  35. f00dl3 December 27, 2015 at 9:00 pm - Reply

    Sleet mixed in but mainly ZR right now.

  36. Alex December 27, 2015 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    Heh NWS in Pleasant Hill reiterating what I saw in recent RAP/RUC runs.

    “Taking a look at 00Z sounding data shows a very pronounced warm nose
    over southern Missouri, but lower in the atmosphere than models had
    predicted it to be (peaks out at 850 hPa instead of 800 hPa). Wind
    flow lower in the atmosphere favors this warm air to spread more
    north-northeast instead of the north-northwest trajectories further
    up aloft. This could delay the onset of warm air aloft over western
    MO and northeast KS, so that the transition from snow and sleet over
    to freezing rain may not occur across the I-35 corridor until 12Z or
    later, after several hours of mostly snow and a little sleet could
    accumulate to several inches. RAP has been hinting at this colder
    possibility and new NAM trickling in seems to be trending much colder
    aloft as well. Will likely need to increase snow/sleet amounts quite
    a bit for the I-35 corridor and points northwest, where 3″ to 8″ of
    snow isn`t out of the realm of possibility. ”

    As for finding the 0Z soundings so fast, I used the Storm Prediction Center’s archives. The page auto refreshes when new data is in and so just periodically check the page for it.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

    I can’t find it by navigating the NWS site though, had to google “weather soundings”…

  37. Jack December 27, 2015 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    It is 31 degrees and freezing raining at my location at 87th and lack man in Lenexa

  38. Morgan December 27, 2015 at 9:12 pm - Reply

    Not a good sign when it starts as freezing rain. A sleet storm is what most should expect in KC. Just don’t see how we pull off a modest snow out of this marginal set up.

    • Alex December 27, 2015 at 9:23 pm - Reply

      I mean the freezing rain now isn’t associated with the warm air from the low, it’s just the transitional state of the column. Cold air advection will cool the column through the evening hours and transition to snow until morning tomorrow when the actual warm nose of the low pushes in and sets up a line of freezing rain. The models have finally come into agreement on the easterly shift too, so it wouldn’t be shocking if KC ends up with some moderate snow in addition to freezing rain. 0Z soundings are more indicative of freezing rain than sleet though; the warm nose is a little too shallow and near surface to do any significant refreezing.

  39. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 9:16 pm - Reply

    Regular rain here as its above freezing at the moment . But the snowplows are out treating the roads already

  40. David December 27, 2015 at 9:18 pm - Reply

    Just looked at the 00z NAM and as others have said, it shifted the low well SE of where it earlier had, topeka is now on the back edge, and really Lawrence as Bill said. 1.3 inches of QPF predicted, but only 1 inch of snow and no freezing rain. This could mean only one thing: a huge sleet event. I’m really bummed because just a few years ago, it was supposed to snow, but we ended up with tons of sleet, even though it was 2F. Stupid warm air aloft. Also, Wichita won’t see much snow either if this pans out

  41. Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    Solid thin layer of ice on my grill on patio now and the freezing rain is increasing in south Lee’s Summit. It is 30 degrees here. Does not fit the forecast that went out previously…colder now than it was supposed to get all night. For those of you who understand the changing forecast better than I do, can you please explain in simple terms what I can expect in LS tonight and tomorrow?

    • Alex December 27, 2015 at 10:00 pm - Reply

      Latest models and soundings from the 6PM timeframe are showing the low pressure system moving further east than initially thought and a shallower “warm layer” in the atmosphere as the precipitation falls.

      This has a few implications:

      A) With the eastward shift, the “warm nose” will dig further to the east and set up the freezing rain line further SE.
      B) The warm nose is pretty shallow and pretty low in the atmosphere. This means that there isn’t much time after the precipitation melts for it to refreeze before it reaches the surface. This means a higher probability of freezing rain and a lower probability of sleet.
      C) The shallower warm nose also means the onset of precipitation will lean towards snow moreso in the previous forecasts. As the column continues to cool overnight ahead of the low pressure system due to cold air advection, there will probably be a transition to snow before it switches back to freezing rain/sleet in the morning as the low pressure system pushes warm air into the area in the lower-middle atmosphere.

      What this means is that areas NW of I-35 will see probably only snow tonight (perhaps a brief period of sleet or freezing rain at the onset, less likely the further NW you go). Towards the SE you will see an onset of freezing rain tonight (likely very little sleet) before a switchover to snow (shorter snow event the further you go SW) and then in the morning (6-9AM) there will be a switchover from SE to NW back to freezing rain and sleet as the low pushes closer. As the low moves out of the area, atmospheric temperatures will recool on the backside of the storm and leave us with a quick shot of snow for most of the area except for probably the extreme SE.

      Storm totals will shape up as follows:

      Snow decreases from NW to SE. Far northwest MO may see up to a foot while places SE of KC may see little or none.
      Sleet will be a bit of a tossup. Generally more along and SE of I-35 but everyone will probably see some.
      Icing will increase from NW to SE.

      • Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 10:10 pm - Reply

        That is very helpful Alex! I appreciate the clarifiation. Have a great night, and enjoy the event! With it sounding like more freezing rain is likely, I am hoping no one has power outages in the area!

  42. Skylar December 27, 2015 at 9:23 pm - Reply

    Dry pockets on the radar are starting to fill in some more. Already have a heavy glaze of ice on non pavement surfaces in east Olathe.

  43. Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 9:24 pm - Reply

    Just make sure you put your location in here so we know what’s going on where. Thanks!

  44. Austin Braddock December 27, 2015 at 9:30 pm - Reply

    Freezing sprinkles 1/2 south of Baldwin City Kansas. As of 9:20.

  45. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 9:36 pm - Reply

    Straight freezing rain here in blue springs. Cars and everything sitting out have a glaze of ice on them already. Steps don’t seem to be too slippery, yet.

    • Gary H December 27, 2015 at 9:45 pm - Reply

      I second that, McCabe. I’m also in Blue Springs just SW of 40 and 7. Everything is glazed over.

  46. Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    Light freezing rain in Lawrence, temp is 31

    • nick December 27, 2015 at 9:56 pm - Reply

      Heat! Where’s your brother winter?!

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 10:04 pm - Reply

      Correction…30 degrees in Lawrence

      • Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 10:10 pm - Reply

        I’m not sure…he could be in seclusion what with these above normal temps across the country. Poor little frosty guy is probably depressed. Heh heh! Although, he’s ticking me off with that blizzard in Texas.

  47. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 9:51 pm - Reply

    Prairie Village, KS. Regular rain from what I can tell. 34 degrees.

  48. shoedog December 27, 2015 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    Just came home from movie theater at 95 and Mission. came out to freezing rain, car coated. Starting to freeze on grass and branches. Live at 133rd and Roe, temperature 34 but again glazing on surfaces other than roads. Roads just wet. Wind kicking up, with Ice on branches and power lines could be a bad night. Stay safe

  49. Kathy December 27, 2015 at 10:02 pm - Reply

    Thin layer of ice on my deck and 32 degrees, 3 miles north of Worlds of Fun.

  50. KellyinLS December 27, 2015 at 10:06 pm - Reply

    Deck and railings are iced over outside in Lees Summit. Pavement is just wet. Hope we see a little snow!

  51. Tim December 27, 2015 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    Northern independence, freezing rain with a few sleet pellets at 10pm

  52. Morgan December 27, 2015 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    We aren’t seeing much of any snow from this. Just starting to slush up on the cars in Waldo.

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 10:11 pm - Reply

      It just started…big storm…let’s watch and see how it pans out.

  53. Austin Braddock December 27, 2015 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    still freezing mist outside. Not even a glaze yet, but getting their. What is the latest computer models

  54. Jason December 27, 2015 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    NWS KC lowered their precip amounts stating storms in TX/LA are robbing the system of moisture.

    • Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 10:34 pm - Reply

      Where are you seeing this? Does this mean that the rain/sleet will end tonight and nothing else will happen?

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 10:52 pm - Reply

      post link

  55. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    No one is talking about this but the next few days look COLD. Wow

    • Rockdoc December 27, 2015 at 11:22 pm - Reply

      Yep, looks to be in the teens at night and low-mid 20s during the day. Time to think about heading south in 50 days from this week:) Looking at projected temps am thinking Aruba since Mexico will be on cool side, relatively speaking.

  56. Jack December 27, 2015 at 10:40 pm - Reply

    I am confused.. JD updated the blog at 10 and said the storm appears to be going more south than the models forecasted yet he still only said dusting-2 for KC metro… so the snow totals are even less than forecasted by Gary, but the storm is going more south?? Ugh this is frustrating.

  57. L.B December 27, 2015 at 10:44 pm - Reply

    went from flurries to rain. no snow! good night folks, rainy icy morning , nothing to see here

    • Austin Braddock December 27, 2015 at 10:48 pm - Reply

      Lb where are you

  58. Jason December 27, 2015 at 10:52 pm - Reply

    NWS KC Twitter account tweeted the lesser amounts. .1-.25″ ice and 1-3″ snow around KC area. Sure it will vary. Freezing drizzle here south of Lawrence. Not looking forward to my drive to work in the morning.

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 10:53 pm - Reply

      Sounds a lot like what they were saying before

  59. Rockdoc December 27, 2015 at 10:58 pm - Reply

    Just left pub from watching Sunday Night Football game at 10pm. Rain with freezing rain sticking on vehicles at 91st and Metcalf. Same over towards 95th and Mission. Ice on railings on balcony. Roads too warm for ice at the moment.

  60. Jason December 27, 2015 at 10:58 pm - Reply

    You may be right. They just said they were thinking lesser amount and then threw these numbers out. Who knows. Drive safe everyone.

  61. Kurt December 27, 2015 at 11:00 pm - Reply

    National weather service calling for 2-4 inches of snow tonight after midnight and 3-5 tomorrow. At least in St Joseph.

    Just waiting for the first flakes to fly

    • Heat Miserr December 27, 2015 at 11:06 pm - Reply

      Yup, Topeka station calling for sleet and snow…changing to heavy snow tomorrow afternoon…accum 3-6 inches …less in KC…I’m in Lawrence…right in the middle. Guess we’ll see what happens.

  62. Auri December 27, 2015 at 11:12 pm - Reply

    Sleet/freezing rain mix at 291 and 35 near liberty. Glazing on deck already but the cement patio was just wet

  63. Rockdoc December 27, 2015 at 11:14 pm - Reply

    KSHB just reported road closure in vicinity of I-435 and I-35. JD is on air now. Storm track has shifted. It has gone slightly south in Texas. “Significant icing in some areas”. No in depth details. Just toooo dicy to pinpoint.

  64. Bill in Lawrence December 27, 2015 at 11:15 pm - Reply

    Jason:

    Happy Sunday evening to you and everybody….

    I’m between Lone Star and Clinton Dam….

    It has been raining here for about an hour or so…cars are solid ice and our drive way is pretty iced up….pretty decent band of rain coming across right now….

    Will be interesting to see how that precip in Texas evolves…..that looks like the coma head??

    This will of course not have the impact it looked like yesterday at this time but I would still put forth that this still may well be the biggest winter event since February 2014. We will for sure know by tomorrow……but there is no doubt if there is a way to miss a winter storm or have a weaker version….KC will find it…….

    I have satellite internet which I have just ran out of for the month…..will be spotty posting from now on…..

    Bill in Lawrence

    Bill in Lawrence.

    • Rockdoc December 27, 2015 at 11:26 pm - Reply

      Oh Bill, sorry to hear we may be losing you due to internet connection. Country living I guess. Stay safe, and warm:)

  65. Morgan December 27, 2015 at 11:24 pm - Reply

    Trending weaker for this area as well. No need to stay up late for this one. Snowflake contest will probably live on.

  66. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 11:30 pm - Reply

    ^typical troll. Go to sleep. This could be a very dangerous storm, stop down playing it.

    • Morgan December 27, 2015 at 11:37 pm - Reply

      Not trolling. Some ice and perhaps sleet. Not nearly as much as previously thought either because of recent model trends. That’s one positive.

      • Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 11:41 pm - Reply

        And a couple of inches of snow possible on the backside…you keep forgetting that.

    • Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 11:39 pm - Reply

      He does tend to give up waaaay to early. Sounds like this will be a dangerous mess no matter which scenario plays out.

  67. David December 27, 2015 at 11:54 pm - Reply

    I think most weather service offices feel like they messed up, but it is a very tough storm to predict. Lower totals for sure, but KC wasn’t on target for a lot of snow anyway. The main piece of this was the severe weather south, tons of flooding in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, and the Blizzard across New Mexico and Texas. We were just caught in the middle like normal. We still got a lot of moisture out of it

    • Heat Miser December 28, 2015 at 12:05 am - Reply

      I’m not sure they messed up. Our forecast hasn’t really changed any. You could argue they messed up if KC ends up getting a bunch of snow…but far the freezing rain and sleet seem to be right on time.

      • David December 28, 2015 at 12:12 am - Reply

        You’re right Heat. I should have said Western Kansas areas, maybe even SC KS. The NAM really had it go much further west than it is, which I believe is what the NWS out of Dodge City used. Forecast offices around here were pretty spot on. With weather, especially winter weather, it is hard to predict and if they don’t put something out quickly, the public gets upset. I always tell people, in the summer, a location may receive a thunderstorm 15 miles away and get 0.5 inch more precipitation than another location and people don’t get upset. However, in winter, that’s a difference of 5 inches of snow (given a 10:1 snow to rain ratio)

      • Alex December 28, 2015 at 12:37 am - Reply

        I’m a bit confused with the sudden negativity on this blog honestly. NWS in Topeka just put out an update with the cold air being further east than expected. The real bummer is definitely central KS where there’s much more dry air than initially thought.

  68. CKS December 27, 2015 at 11:56 pm - Reply

    Definitely snowing here in Plattsburg! Small, drifting flakes that are sticking to the patio furniture.

  69. Jack December 27, 2015 at 11:57 pm - Reply

    One thing we have to remember is that areas just north of us like Atchison and St. Joe are supposed to get totals of 4-8 inches and decreasing as you go southeast. If the switch over to snow is around 6 or 7 in the morning, we could find ourselves in the metro receiving 3-6 inches of snow! It all depends on that change over. It is now sleeting and 31 degrees here at college phflumm. Still waiting for the radar to really come together.

    GARY, I am very interested to hear what you have to say about these potential snow totals!?!?

    • Rockdoc December 28, 2015 at 12:20 am - Reply

      He’s out partying. He’s on vacation????. We need to let Gary have his vacation and sleep in?. I believe he said he would check back in tomorrow morning.

      Let’s enjoy the storm, report what we see and our locations, and of course observations on radar, models and vert soundings. We are collectively smart so we can figure this stuff out. Maybe not as precise as Gary, but a very good idea based on models and scientific knowledge. We’ve also had a great teacher! Anyways, just my rambling 2 cents worth?

  70. Jack December 28, 2015 at 12:14 am - Reply

    Looking this mornings 6z gfs’s storm track, it seems like the storm is taking a very similar track to that model’s output… and that model gave the metro 5-7 inches of snow.. wonder if there is any chance we can see that…

  71. Mr. Pete December 28, 2015 at 12:19 am - Reply

    Mixed bag of mess falling in Prairie Village but in looking at the radar I really doubt it will amount to much of anything.

    • Rockdoc December 28, 2015 at 12:26 am - Reply

      On Ye of Little Faith Mr. Pete. It just takes time, plus with the low diving a wee bit south and I think slowing down, it could be a wee bit longer. Have freezing rain there yet? Encountered some here at 95th and Mission around 10. Sleeting now. Cars are glazed in ice with sleet on top and its 12:25 AM here in South PV.

      • Heat Miser December 28, 2015 at 12:30 am - Reply

        29 degrees in Lawrence, cars entombed in ice, sleeting now, windy, generally nasty out there!!!!!

  72. rickmckc December 28, 2015 at 12:30 am - Reply

    Not sure why all the negativity here on snow potential. 00z EURO is showing 9″ for downtown airport and 12″ at KCI by 00z tomorrow.

    As Gary always says, it’s just a model … but it’s a pretty good one based on past performance.

    BTW, it is now snowing on my back porch near I-29/64th. Started out as light freezing rain earlier this evening.

    • Dobber December 28, 2015 at 12:37 am - Reply

      Snowing in downtown as well Rick just north of plaza.

    • Jack December 28, 2015 at 12:38 am - Reply

      Hmmm very interesting.. but it may be too close to the storm to look at. Interesting to say the least though.

    • Auri December 28, 2015 at 12:45 am - Reply

      Snowing here at 291 and I35 too.

  73. Morgan December 28, 2015 at 12:32 am - Reply

    Not that it matters now but EURO is definitely east this run.

    • rickmckc December 28, 2015 at 12:38 am - Reply

      Of course it matters. See my comment just above you.

  74. Plowboy87 December 28, 2015 at 12:37 am - Reply

    Sleet in oak grove.

  75. Mr. Pete December 28, 2015 at 12:38 am - Reply

    Update. Heavy sleet in PVKS now. Brick patio is starting to get covered now

  76. Alex December 28, 2015 at 12:39 am - Reply

    Currently a dusting of sleet and still coming down in East St. Joseph. St. Joseph office reporting light snow (but they’re probably 8 miles west of me)

  77. Morgan December 28, 2015 at 12:43 am - Reply

    Heavy sleet now near Brookside area.

  78. Jack December 28, 2015 at 12:44 am - Reply

    My 2nd favorite station, last year’s most accurate, has the metro on the edge of 3-7 inches of snow.. that seems about right to me.

  79. Bill in Lawrence December 28, 2015 at 12:47 am - Reply

    Looks like on radar that the upper level low is still in central Texas and is just now beginning to lift out……the bands are rotating in from the SE and you can also see the coma head beginning to take shape in Texas…..still a long ways to go before this is over in my very humble opinion……as Heat said….winds really beginning to pick up here SW of Lawrence…..

  80. rickmckc December 28, 2015 at 12:50 am - Reply

    Euro is showing the main snowfall occurring between noon and 6pm tomorrow which is a lot different from the NWS recent update.

    Not sure what to make of that other than someone is going to be very wrong!

    All you late-night watchers enjoy. Off to bed for me!

  81. Mr. Pete December 28, 2015 at 12:57 am - Reply

    Snowplows are now actively plowing streets here in Prairie Village. This mess is sticking to all surfaces now.

    • Rockdoc December 28, 2015 at 1:04 am - Reply

      They’re plowing? Maybe laying down salt. Bet they did not pre-treat as some other communities did. Not enough to blade yet I would think. Bet they wanted to wait until any chance of rain passed so as to not waste treatment materials. Where’s Terry? He’d know for sure! Maybe Gary can send him an E-mail just to make sure all is OK.

  82. Rockdoc December 28, 2015 at 12:59 am - Reply

    No snow yet in South PV. It was sleeting about 20 minutes ago. Now it seems to be freezing rain. As someone said earlier, Heat Meiser I believe, cars are entombed. This is going to be ugly folks. Freezing rain then sleet, followed by more sleet, followed by more freezing rain and then maybe some snow. Superglued mess?. Glad I took tomorrow off, plus I never get to stay up this late to watch Tv and chat with fellow weather nerds?

  83. Heat Miser December 28, 2015 at 1:00 am - Reply

    Can someone post the url for the latest Euro showing snowfall potential?

    • Rockdoc December 28, 2015 at 1:06 am - Reply

      Heat, can you see my previous comments waiting moderation? The. Don’t know what’s up with that.

      • HEAT MISER December 28, 2015 at 1:10 am - Reply

        No, this is the last one I can see from you. I think it does that randomly mabye…happens to me ocassionaly out of the blue too:

        On Ye of Little Faith Mr. Pete. It just takes time, plus with the low diving a wee bit south and I think slowing down, it could be a wee bit longer. Have freezing rain there yet? Encountered some here at 95th and Mission around 10. Sleeting now. Cars are glazed in ice with sleet on top and its 12:25 AM here in South PV.

    • rickmckc December 28, 2015 at 1:30 am - Reply

      Heat, you gotta pay for it. It’s “eurowx.com”. They have a week free trial.

  84. JB in Parkville December 28, 2015 at 1:00 am - Reply

    Snowing at a pretty good clip 45 hwy east of 435. Light icing since 10pm

  85. Heat Miser December 28, 2015 at 1:07 am - Reply

    28 degrees with light freezing rain in Lawrence, winds from the North at 18 mph, gusts to 31

  86. lsdoc December 28, 2015 at 1:09 am - Reply

    I don’t post here often, but live between Lee’s Summit and Lake Lotawana. Moderate freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow at 1:00 a.m. It appears that Mother Nature can’t make up her mind, so has decided to throw the entire kitchen sink at us. The radar is lighting up about 15 miles to the SE of me and moving NW (hoping that is not convection), then there appearas to be a dry slot for a few hours after that. Not an expert here – just an observation.

  87. lsdoc December 28, 2015 at 1:18 am - Reply

    Let me rephrase – not a true “dry slot”. Just a “lull” in precip. Still waiting to see what happens tomorrow.

  88. Alex Pickman December 28, 2015 at 1:33 am - Reply

    Snow/grauple coming down in St. Joe. Currently in southend at work on Lower Lake road. Heavy dusting, and roads are covered. 4 to 8 inches is looking increasingly likely as thearly column continues to cool. Looks like we may stay all snow, which would be great. We don’t need that from rain crap up here. It looked like a couple of the models were hinting at some convective banding setting up in the morning. Would be interesting to see how or if that unfolds, and if it does, where those bands set up. If one sits over St. Joe for a while with 2″/hr snowfall rates, it will pile up quick. The biggest forecast challenge however is how much snow falls along and southeast of the I 35 corridor? There will be a sharp shut off, and looking at the latest data, KC will likely be on that gradient. Won’t be surprised if there is nothing but sleet on the south side, and 3 to 5 inches near the airport. I’m glad I’m live in St. Joe for this storm. Been a blast tracking this thing the last 312 hours. Either way, whether you get snow, or freezing rain and sleet, or both….driving is going to be a mess. Hell we are still used to 60 degree weather LOL. I’ll update later on tonight, as I’m sure the other Alex in St. Joe will too.

    • Alex December 28, 2015 at 1:54 am - Reply

      Can concur on this report. Snow/sleet mix coming down now although it’s decidedly more snow. I can just hear the sleet hitting hard surfaces. Probably a quarter to a half inch accumulated on the sidewalk/road at this point. One point of concern for me is seeing how much snow is blowing off of the roof already. It’s apparently light enough snow to get blown around quite a bit. Drifts and visibility could be a real headache come morning commute. Hopefully not too many people have to get out and about tomorrow! We’ll see if I have another update tonight. Looks like that last little surge of moisture is close to getting tapped out before we see the lower level low move a little closer. It’s still spinnin along in Texas.

  89. Morgan December 28, 2015 at 1:42 am - Reply

    Long duration sleet storm in full force. At least the ground is white. Trying to sleep through the pelting against the house might be difficult.

  90. Jack December 28, 2015 at 1:53 am - Reply

    Currently stumped by the radar right now.. can sort pick the small comma head in Texas but the storm is still just way down there. Do not remember the models predicting this lull in the activity.. no new precip increasing this moment.. I have no feeling on what is going to happen. I will be back up at 4:30 to check things.

  91. Alex Pickman December 28, 2015 at 1:56 am - Reply

    Snow is really coming down in South Joe now. Grass is really turning white. Still mixed with some grauple and sleet, but seems to be transitioning to snow steadily

  92. Alex Pickman December 28, 2015 at 3:19 am - Reply

    Precip is definitely increasing across northern Kansas and NW Missouri. 0.5″ of sleet/snow on the ground.

    Also, remember to measure the sleet you guys have accumulated. That adds to your yearly snow total, unless the official measuring guidelines changed. I don’t think they did

  93. Alex Pickman December 28, 2015 at 3:47 am - Reply

    Changed over to heavy sleet, mixed with freezing rain. Temp is 26°. Going to be fun drive home at 6am

  94. f00dl3 December 28, 2015 at 5:02 am - Reply

    Big poof!

    • Gary December 28, 2015 at 5:05 am - Reply

      It’s tracking south. I started a new blog1

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