Good Evening Weather2020 Bloggers,

As of 4:30 PM  it was 73° in McAlester, OK and 13° in western Nebraska!  We have a complex weather forecast for many locations around the nation. This is the storm Weather2020 forecasted five weeks ago to arrive between Christmas and New Year’s. Well, It’s Here! It is intense and strengthening. Right now the storm is still dropping south into northern Mexico and it will begin it’s turn northward.  Look at all of the Watches, Warnings, and Advisories:


There was a huge area or precipitation as of 4:30 PM hi-lighted by the tornado warnings and tornado watches are of the most immediate concern on this December 26th evening:

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 2.26.06 PM

Look at those active tornado warnings.  This Major Winter Storm has another strong spring component to it. On the winter side, Kansas City is once again in one of the toughest spots to forecast the weather. There will likely be a very heavy band of snow not that far away on Monday.  Here is the European Model snow forecast:


This is the European Model solution as of this morning. As you can see, KC misses out on the snow with this model solution. What about all of the others?

Model Solutions  for snow as I see them:

  • European Model:  As you can see above this solution has 1″ of snow or less in Kansas City. The temperatures during the rain are near 32 degrees so some icing is possible. There is a band forecast from eastern New Mexico and far western Texas northeast to near Salina, KS to eastern Nebraska and western and northern Iowa into Minnesota that have 6 to 21 inches of snow.
  • NAM Model: This model is similar to the European model and has Kansas City on the edge and being dry slotted just when it becomes cold enough for snow.
  • GFS Model:  This model has consistently produced a band of snow. And, if this solution is correct there would be around a five to six hour window where 10 inches of snow could fall very quickly with thunder and lightning.  This window opens up between 9 AM and 2 PM. I would like to see some support from the other models
  • Canadian Model: This model is more like the GFS

I will write up an extensive blog in the morning.  A Winter Storm Watch has been issued. There are many questions that we will attempt to answer in tomorrow’s blog. One of the biggest factors is the cold air surge. How much cold air will get down into the heavy rain that is falling. Ice is an increasing possibility of the cold air surge is just slightly stronger than the models are indicating.

Have a great Saturday night!  Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. I am having a great time in Vegas. I won big last night at black jack playing my system, and of course I cashed in the Royals winning World Series ticket. Here is a picture of a cumulonimbus cloud that greeted our landing in Vegas: