Major Winter Storm Targets The Plains

/Major Winter Storm Targets The Plains

Major Winter Storm Targets The Plains

Good Evening Weather2020 Bloggers,

As of 4:30 PM  it was 73° in McAlester, OK and 13° in western Nebraska!  We have a complex weather forecast for many locations around the nation. This is the storm Weather2020 forecasted five weeks ago to arrive between Christmas and New Year’s. Well, It’s Here! It is intense and strengthening. Right now the storm is still dropping south into northern Mexico and it will begin it’s turn northward.  Look at all of the Watches, Warnings, and Advisories:

1

There was a huge area or precipitation as of 4:30 PM hi-lighted by the tornado warnings and tornado watches are of the most immediate concern on this December 26th evening:

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 2.26.06 PM

Look at those active tornado warnings.  This Major Winter Storm has another strong spring component to it. On the winter side, Kansas City is once again in one of the toughest spots to forecast the weather. There will likely be a very heavy band of snow not that far away on Monday.  Here is the European Model snow forecast:

2

This is the European Model solution as of this morning. As you can see, KC misses out on the snow with this model solution. What about all of the others?

Model Solutions  for snow as I see them:

  • European Model:  As you can see above this solution has 1″ of snow or less in Kansas City. The temperatures during the rain are near 32 degrees so some icing is possible. There is a band forecast from eastern New Mexico and far western Texas northeast to near Salina, KS to eastern Nebraska and western and northern Iowa into Minnesota that have 6 to 21 inches of snow.
  • NAM Model: This model is similar to the European model and has Kansas City on the edge and being dry slotted just when it becomes cold enough for snow.
  • GFS Model:  This model has consistently produced a band of snow. And, if this solution is correct there would be around a five to six hour window where 10 inches of snow could fall very quickly with thunder and lightning.  This window opens up between 9 AM and 2 PM. I would like to see some support from the other models
  • Canadian Model: This model is more like the GFS

I will write up an extensive blog in the morning.  A Winter Storm Watch has been issued. There are many questions that we will attempt to answer in tomorrow’s blog. One of the biggest factors is the cold air surge. How much cold air will get down into the heavy rain that is falling. Ice is an increasing possibility of the cold air surge is just slightly stronger than the models are indicating.

Have a great Saturday night!  Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. I am having a great time in Vegas. I won big last night at black jack playing my system, and of course I cashed in the Royals winning World Series ticket. Here is a picture of a cumulonimbus cloud that greeted our landing in Vegas:

IMG_4557

Gary

2017-01-16T07:05:57+00:00 December 26th, 2015|General|101 Comments

101 Comments

  1. Alex Pickman December 26, 2015 at 4:49 pm - Reply

    Go GFS Go GEM!!!

  2. MikeL December 26, 2015 at 4:51 pm - Reply

    NWS in Topeka is forecasting up to .25 inches of ice along an Emporia to Topeka line. Honestly, I don’t believe that. I think it will be mainly snow/sleet or rain. White or wet. I’m guessing they’re not sure either.

    Gary, tough forecast so good luck! Bill in Lawrence said on the last blog the 00z runs tonight should be interesting and I agree. At least this is a fun storm to track.

  3. Jack December 26, 2015 at 4:55 pm - Reply

    Gary, thank you so much for your write up and putting out what all if the models are saying. But what do YOU think is going to happen? What direction are you leaning towards???

    • Gary December 26, 2015 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      Jack,

      If I was certain that KC was going to get hit by a major snow event I would fly back tomorrow night. I just don’t want to miss it, but I also don’t want to fly back for nothing. I think there are two many uncertainties at the moment. I am not sure if I put this in the blog, but I think I did, I believe that if you take a consensus of all of the models, Kansas City doesn’t have much of a chance for any snow accumulation until around 9 AM Monday, and this timing can still move by a few hours. But, at that moment, there is around a 5 hour window and if we are in the comma head the snowfall rates could be quite high. So, a lot could fall in a very little time and it is one of the possible solutions. Ask Doug Heady, one of our Weather2020 meteorologists in Joplin, MO. There was one season that they had three major winter storm systems that winter where it only snowed for like four or five hours, yet they had a foot of snow. This is something I have my eyes on. But, there are other solutions out there that don’t even have any snow at all. Either those other models will trend towards the GFS model, or the GFS will suddenly trend towards those other models. This is why Kansas City is one of the most unpredictable cities in the world for weather.

      Gary

      • Jack December 26, 2015 at 5:06 pm - Reply

        You did say in your blog that there is a chance for that window of snow, so are you saying you are leaning the GFS’s outcome of snow?? Or the nam’s of no snow.

        I looked at th GFS’s hourly snow rates and it has in 1+ snowfall rates Monday afternoon and in the past when the GFS predicted this it has been 2-3 inches of snow per hour. That would be some heavy snow.

        • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 5:15 pm - Reply

          Seems to be me is saying he isn’t really leaning one way or the other at the moment.

  4. Michael Casteel December 26, 2015 at 5:11 pm - Reply

    Hoping for a WHITE-OUT Monday! Got my bobcats fueled and ready. Good luck in Vegas and have a safe flight home Gary!
    Michael

  5. Mr. Pete December 26, 2015 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    That’s a cool looking cloud Gary. Thanks for sharing. I find it interesting that we have all these models, forecasts and theories yet no one seems to know what is going to happen in KC. Now what’s the deal???

    • Bob December 26, 2015 at 6:11 pm - Reply

      Well said Pete. How could they have all this technology and still not put out much information. Pretty frustrating because I could make a forecast with limited data and they can’t?!?!

      • MMike December 26, 2015 at 6:42 pm - Reply

        They have issued a forecast:

        Tonight…rain with temps falling to around 32 or so.

        Tomorrow…dry for the most part until later in the day. Next batch of heavier rain moves in tomorrow and last until Monday morning.

        Sunday late night into Monday evening. Winter Storm watch posted for the possibility of ice and snow accums. All weather folks have mentioned the track will be crucial as is always the case with strong ULL’s.

        So, the forecast is there. Forecast updates will be needed as we get into tomorrow evening. This will be the case with this storm as it has been with all major winter storms for the last 50 years.

        Winter storm tracks are never a slam dunk..a wiggle here a wiggle there can make all the difference. This will never change no matter what technology we have.

        • Dale December 26, 2015 at 6:56 pm - Reply

          Lol pretty basic forecast there…. KCTV5 at least put out a priliminary snowfall forecast. I’m not asking for perfect, but give me a reason to seperate you from my own laptop.

          Btw…just Rain baby!!!

  6. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 5:23 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good Saturday evening to you sir!!! Hope Vegas is good!!!!

    Indeed…..thanks for taking the time from your vacation to update the blog; though I know from all of my years on the blog you are more excited to follow this potential storm than playing Black Jack!!!! 🙂 I don’t blame you for not coming back….as soon as you got on the plane the Low would take a hard turn left and track across Salina and of course….this is KC…even if every model had us in a blizzard chances are something would go amiss!!!! 🙂

    Honestly…whatever happens….after last winter and with how warm this winter as been to even be in the conversation this late in the game is something to smile about. Ironically with all of the cold last year we still this year already have more winter storm watches than last year….granted only one…but that beats last year!!

    Finally…and I am going out on a limb here…one could argue that the LRC would say that the more western track is the correct one and I can for sure see that and it may well verify. However, I would respectfully counter and say that the GFS at 12Z may have a better handle on the track with the LRC in that it is December not early November; there is colder air for this system to work with so that may well help keep the low tracking more east in this cycle as compared to cycle 1….not sure if I am explaining myself properly so I will just stop…:-)

    Back to surface observations and preparing American Governmnet class for second semester…

    Have a great night everyone….

    • Gary December 26, 2015 at 6:58 pm - Reply

      Thanks Bill, and spot on! I doubt I will come back home, but I will see if the morning models converge on a snowy solution….or not. We so rarely get to enjoy a snowstorm, so of course I want it for everyone. And, yes, this is a weather pattern that is producing consistent exciting storm systems. This one is producing big time already. Now, let’s see what sets up. New data is in soon, then it’s off to the Red Square at Mandalay Bay for dinner.

      Gary

  7. Jack December 26, 2015 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    I just looked at the precip types on the nam and gfs on instant weather maps and it showed barely any freezing rain whatsoever. Am I looking at something wrong??

    • HEAT MISER December 26, 2015 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      That’s good…we dont want freezing rain…we want snow

  8. Baseball Mike December 26, 2015 at 6:40 pm - Reply

    Good evening Gary-seems like this is a tough storm to call even though the LRC did show it coming-Here in Topeka there are three different forecasts–seems to me too many models and too much technology muddys the water-but it is raining hard here-almost had an inch–thanks for the info-Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  9. Elaine Watson December 26, 2015 at 6:47 pm - Reply

    36.8 here. I am 6 miles east of McLouth. Wishing it could drop a few degrees more. We have had .38 inches of rain. Ohhh, wish this could be all snow!! Models and forecasts are all over the place. Fun , none the less.

  10. Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 6:48 pm - Reply

    Good Evening Gary. Glad to hear someone has luck and know-how on the tables in Vegas. Keep it rolling:)

    Just some thoughts regarding the 18z GFS and NAM 4k. Gary, or any other blogger with more geekness, if I’m going out on a limb here feel free to jump in and correct me.

    Since there is concern about ice I checked out the temps for several mb heights from midday Sunday until the change over about 9-12 on Monday using the NAM 4k. The surface temps are ~33F Sun at 3pm, and then below 32F at 6pm through Monday at noonish. The 925mb (2500 ft) is consistently below -3C (~27F), the 850mb wobbles between -3 to +2 (~27-35F). This would suggest that the warmer wedge/moisture will be above the cooler temps thusband producing ice as it falls. Given the QPF of ~0.2 inches during this time, this verifies the anticipated 0.2 to 0.3 inches of ice as reported. They must have used the NAM model too!

    Also of note, it looks to transition to freezing pellets about 6 am Monday in some areas. There is also a really nice band of heavy snow that shows on the GFS which supports their total of ~8 to 9 INCHES in and around the metro. Would be about noonish.

    Perhaps Jeff or you could toss in a few skew-T charts showing folks the temp/elevation setup lines for ice, similar to what JD did. Several folks got lost on those.

    Anyways, great blog as always. One more small load of wood to get just in case we get a wee bit more ice. Now I need to dig out camping equipment so at least I can heat water for coffee in the fireplace:)

    Hope I didn’t bore folks with my thoughts on ice. Have fun in Vegas Gary. Not telling you to come home, I bet you would like to make snow angels and play with the kids in the snow.

    • Gary December 26, 2015 at 7:00 pm - Reply

      Rock,

      Great information. Thank you so much for participating regularly. I will think about posting a Skew-T. I like to wait as the models are always changing. I will look into it.

      We will discuss this big time tomorrow.

      Gary

      • Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 7:13 pm - Reply

        Thank you Gary! Now, time to grab a cocktail, head to the table and WIN!!!

    • Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 7:09 pm - Reply

      That was such a great post!!! Can’t wait to see what halogens!

      • Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 7:10 pm - Reply

        Happens ***

      • CRW December 26, 2015 at 7:32 pm - Reply

        You must have been trying to type on your phone.

    • Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 7:33 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc:

      Thanks so much for posting about the soundings!!!

      I went and looked for Topeka soundings (no soundings for Lawrence) and the GFS has Topeka below freezing at the surface from tomorrow morning forwards and actually has surface temps continue to fall. I am extrapolating that my location about 6 miles SW of Lawrence will be close to Topeka….maybe 2-3 hours difference. There is for sure a warm nose at about the 700 level for quite a while tomorrow so I m guessing that if the GFS is correct, there will be some sleet/fr rain before transition to snow. This is all of course predicated on the GFS being correct!!! 🙂

      Winds are gusting here to around 25 and my temp. just hit 34….guessing it will bounce between 33-38 most of the evening….

      Have a good one…

      Bill in Lawrence

  11. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 7:12 pm - Reply

    A couple of random observations….

    Looking at the current surface charts, the front has pushed through Columbia and Springfield and well south of Jefferson City…..winds have really picked up here and my temp is now hovering at 37. The freeze line looks to be in a line from Concrodia, Kansas to just west of Hutchinson.

    Looking at the 23Z RAP surface features there are 3 surface high pressure areas from Wyoming into southern Alberta with a pressure of 1039….they look to be pushing south somewhat….

    Will be interesting to follow these features in addition to what the models show….

    NAM out shortly….will be something if the GFS and NAM are still as far apart as they have been….

    Have a great evening…

    Bill in Lawrence

    • Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 7:23 pm - Reply

      Looking forward to your further musings when the new models roll in. I’m sure the chatter will pick up:)

      Nothing happening tonight unless you are into the Toilet Bowl games. No offense to those that support a team playing. Just soooo many bowl games these days.

      God Bless those in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma with the blizzard conditions. And boy, parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa are going to need help with all of the ice followed by bitter cold.

  12. Myles December 26, 2015 at 7:24 pm - Reply

    This is fun to watch unfold but frustrating at the same time. Would love squeeze out some decent snow to be able to get the trucks out. I’m in St. Joe so will be right on the line it looks like.

    • Alex Pickman December 26, 2015 at 8:34 pm - Reply

      I’m in St. Joe as well. What part of town you live?

  13. Mr. Pete December 26, 2015 at 7:25 pm - Reply

    I predict that sometime tomorrow afternoon someone will figure out the storm. Not trying to knock anyone but that’s the deal….

  14. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 7:35 pm - Reply

    Already 37 in Lenexa 87 & Pflumm

  15. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 7:51 pm - Reply

    RGEM is nuts 2-3″ ice and 2-4″ snow

  16. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 7:51 pm - Reply

    Interesting….the rain shield right now (7:50 P.M.) is basically right behind the front….the front is about 20 miles further south of the southern edge of it….it probably doesn’t mean anything but it is kind of cool!!!!

    Bill in Lawrence

  17. MikeL December 26, 2015 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    00z Topeka sounding temp was 3C (37F) at 850mb with a north wind. My surface temp (in SW Topeka) is also 37F so if these two warm spots can cool five more degrees, maybe I’ll see some real flakes!

  18. Dan December 26, 2015 at 7:58 pm - Reply

    Bill,
    We cover some properties over in Lawrence and everything I can tell from surface temperatures and dew points that it will be between 32 and 33 in the morning. Right at the border line however the winds are expected to be around 22 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. I think the pavements are pretty warm and don’t expect any icing in the morning. What are your thoughts?

  19. CRW December 26, 2015 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    This looks like a perfect Ark-la-tx storm just passing a handful of miles east of KC. Interesting to see how this storm plays out. It looks like the GFS models have it a little too far east.

  20. Heat Miserr December 26, 2015 at 8:11 pm - Reply

    Reports of many homes and bldgs damaged near Dallas from large wedge tornado, one report of people trapped in bldg (TWC). What a large and powerful storm system.

    • Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 10:16 pm - Reply

      Dan:

      Happy Saturday!!

      We should be fine tonight…..I am SW of town between Clinton Dam and Lone Star Lake and still sitting at around 35. I don’t think we will really hit below 32 until later tonight and the rain should be long gone. There may be a loan slick spot on side walks but with the wind I would think that after the rain shuts off things should dry pretty quickly. Looking at the radar, the rain should be out of Lawrence in the next hour or so. We got a lot more rain than I thought we would.

      Hope this helps….I’ll keep an eye on things for the next few hours.

      Bill in Lawrence

  21. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 8:15 pm - Reply
  22. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 8:19 pm - Reply

    https://twitter.com/DFWscanner?lang=en

    Yikes!

    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 36m36 minutes ago

    7:41pm – Search and rescue efforts ongoing. Heavy rescue personnel have been requested for multiple people trapped in destroyed structures.
    150 retweets 32 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 41m41 minutes ago

    7:37pm – People need to avoid the cities of Rowlett, Garland, and Sunnyvale due to significant tornado damage.
    194 retweets 39 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 44m44 minutes ago

    7:33pm – Dozens of damaged structures and dozens of injuries in Rowlett, Sunnyvale, and Garland areas. This is a bad situation.
    183 retweets 44 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 46m46 minutes ago

    7:31pm – Residents in Blue Ridge and northeast Collin County need to seek shelter now. Large tornado still on the ground.
    60 retweets 15 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 48m48 minutes ago

    7:30pm – Now reports of structures damaged near Nevada in Collin County.
    42 retweets 13 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 54m54 minutes ago

    7:23pm – Reports of a fatality accident on I30 and Broadway, multiple victims reported.
    89 retweets 21 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 58m58 minutes ago

    7:19pm – Major multiple car pileup on I30. Multiple people trapped. Public safety reports severe injuries.
    165 retweets 26 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 59m59 minutes ago

    7:19pm – Rowlett has contacted surrounding cities for “as much help as we can get.”
    233 retweets 55 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 1h1 hour ago

    7:17pm – Reports of people trapped in damage and major gas leaks in Rowlett. Multiple injuries. Its bad.
    308 retweets 69 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 1h1 hour ago

    7:16pm – Storm spotters continue to report a large tornado on the ground near Farmersville. SEEK SHELTER NOW!
    69 retweets 15 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 1h1 hour ago

    7:15pm – Several fire personnel and ambulances have been requested to the Rowlett area to help with search and rescue & injuries.
    77 retweets 28 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 1h1 hour ago

    7:11pm – Vehicles overturned, piled up off I30 in Rowlett, public safety reports.
    116 retweets 27 likes
    DFW Scanner ‏@DFWscanner 1h1 hour ago

    7:10pm – Rowlett officer simply reports “lotta people injured, lotta damage.” Major damage in Rowlett from large tornado strike.

  23. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 8:22 pm - Reply

    Mass casualties being reported near Dallas from large wedge tornado.

    Looks like it hit an interstate full of cars as well….Yikes!

  24. Skylar December 26, 2015 at 8:26 pm - Reply

    00z NAM is another slight shift east. KC still gets less than three inches, but it’s a small improvement, and better than a slight shift west.

  25. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 8:28 pm - Reply

    NAM didn’t change. Weird what it does with the track of the low after it reaches NW Arkansas. Takes it west and then north again. Pretty much all rain here.

  26. Dale December 26, 2015 at 8:29 pm - Reply

    Whoa. The 00z NAM is no joke. Looks like a whopper now! A large 6″ swath with isolated amounts approaching a foot. Maybe I was wrong about KC getting slammed

    Oops, that snow is for west/central KS. My bad lol!

    • stl78 December 26, 2015 at 8:50 pm - Reply

      It seems as though your only motive is to piss off the snow lovers! Thats a shame. If u dont like snow, fine. Why try and anger those that do.

      • Joe December 27, 2015 at 8:03 am - Reply

        Agreed! We definitely do not need another MUKU. Humor is one thing, constant sarcasm is completely different. Dale, not sure your prediction of “all rain” is going to hold up with tis one

  27. Rob December 26, 2015 at 8:45 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    Time for Dale to go or I am cancelling. Not that my $2.00 or whatever it is a month means anything but I was hoping to enjoy the blog, but that A$$H01E just PISSES ME OFF! If he is allowed to continue I am gone and so might some others as stated before.

  28. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    Almost a half inch of ice showing up on the NAM. Shifted east this run like the GFS but not as much cold sector precip.

  29. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 8:58 pm - Reply
    • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 9:06 pm - Reply

      Nasty look on those maps. That would bring everything in the city to a screeching halt.

    • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 9:21 pm - Reply

      That’s the 12z run.

  30. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 9:29 pm - Reply

    Keep moving easy little Low.

  31. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 9:39 pm - Reply

    Canadian would be a disaster if it verified. It’s stood its ground for the last two days. A little SE this run.

    • David December 26, 2015 at 9:42 pm - Reply

      Which site are you using for the Canadian?

      • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 10:01 pm - Reply

        This has storm evolution in six hour increments. Click on global tab and select CMC. It’s still only showing the 12z run for some odd reason.

  32. Clint December 26, 2015 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    GFS just pooped a hammer!

    • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 9:52 pm - Reply

      Not sure what you mean by that but it looks a tad SE of the 18z run.

  33. Clint December 26, 2015 at 9:55 pm - Reply

    Looks good for Kc I think 8 or 9 inches I need a shift se about 30 more miles

  34. John Sickels December 26, 2015 at 9:56 pm - Reply

    I will take rain. I will take snow. PLEASE no ice storms.

  35. Mr. Pete December 26, 2015 at 9:57 pm - Reply

    Let it snow!!!! ⛄️⛄️⛄️

  36. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    I still cant over the differences between the track of the GFS and the NAM this close to the event. At hour 42 the GFS has it heading to Saint Louis and the NAM still has it north of Tulsa….and you’re right Morgan…the NAM is doing some funky things with it….just weird!!

    This is probably nothing but the southern edge of the rain shield tonight looks real close to the track on the GFS….right where the front has lined up….wonder if that will wind up being the actual track when it is all said and done….

    One look at the 0Z runs tomorrow then it is time to look out the window/watch the surface observations!!!! 🙂

    It is still good to be in the conversation this close to the event but if there is ever an area that snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it is KC in winter!!!!! 🙂

    Have a great evening everybody….

    Bill in Lawrence

  37. Psych doc December 26, 2015 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    Just some observations from about 5 miles east of Manhattan. Current temp 32 with a dew point of 30. Winds north at 19-20 sustained with a max just of 33. Currently having stong burst of sleet, sounds like it’s hailing if you stand by any north facing Windows. Just got the new outdoor weather station I got for Christmas up in time to log this storm! Fascinating!

  38. LS Mike December 26, 2015 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    JD just exploded absolutely nothing !!! ?

    • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 10:32 pm - Reply

      Not sure what this means.

  39. LS Mike December 26, 2015 at 10:28 pm - Reply

    *Explained

  40. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    Sorry….meant to also mention that it is 2 below in NW Nebraska currently…..

    Going to be interesting to track that cold air over the next 12-14 hours……

  41. Alex Pickman December 26, 2015 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    GEM really digs the system east, and still brings in 4 to 8 inches of snow

  42. Mr. Pete December 26, 2015 at 10:48 pm - Reply

    Once more, I’m sure it will all be figured out tomorrow around 1pm. Well, maybe not??

  43. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    I didn’t think I would say this but I would lean the snowiest model right now. Look at our sounding. The atmosphere is cooling equally – even at that pesky 3000 ft layer we have had a problem with all season long – only several degrees warmer there instead of 8-10 degrees warmer like every other storm we have had this year. This should narrow the precip. type to sleet or snow – freezing rain is becoming less a risk in the KC metro area right now.

  44. Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 11:17 pm - Reply

    Regardless of the 3 model guidance at this time, we all need to start prepping for worst case scenario in case we get whalloped with ice. All it takes is about 0.5 inches to be a crippling storm.

    Tomorrow morning and early afternoon may be our last chance. Most people know the drill, but…..just some thoughts. Girl Scout and Military training is kicking in now.

    Extra batteries/bulbs for flash lights, phone and other electronics charged up, extra water especially if you are on a well, firewood, gasoline for generators, medicines and extra cash in case you need to leave home, same for pet food and their medicine, and any special papers or documents.

    Fire extinguishers and emergency first aid kit. Warm clothes, blankets, high energy snacks and water in cars. Also for extra heat, coffee cans and candles.

    Don’t mean to play Mom since I think most here are pretty darn smart and on top of things. Just a gentle reminder before we all get sucked in and wound around the ULL, models and everything else going forward. Also think of the elderly.

    Thanks for listening. Rockdoc

  45. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 11:32 pm - Reply

    Observation stations reporting light snow in JoCo Exec & Topeka right now.

    • Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 11:39 pm - Reply

      I saw that….wasn’t sure if I was reading things correctly or if my eyes were playing tricks on me!!!!

  46. Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 11:34 pm - Reply

    Don’t know if others have seen or not but the 00z NAM 4k on Pivotal Weather site zoomed into our region shows total ice accumulation by Monday at 21z ~0.6 -0.7 inches. In JoCo its definitely something to watch as is the rest of the metro. Of course, some of this may melt a wee bit when warm enough but non the less, it’s looking ugly:( This is starting to look like late January 2002. Ugh.

  47. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 11:36 pm - Reply

    Foodl3: Good point!!!!!

    Looking at the current surface charts, the front has eased into northern Arkansas-in Flipping Arkansas it is 72….30 miles west it is in the middle 50s……and man west Texas and eastern New Mexico are getting pounded tonight.

    Will be interesting to see how the players look in the morning…..have a great evening everyone…

    Bill in Lawrence

  48. Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 1:02 am - Reply

    34 out… COME ON LET’S DO THIS!!!!

  49. Alex Pickman December 27, 2015 at 1:10 am - Reply

    00z Euro looks about identical to the 12z run.

    I’ve is definitely a concern with this storm system.

    • Alex Pickman December 27, 2015 at 1:11 am - Reply

      Ice* not I’ve lol

    • Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 1:21 am - Reply

      Could you post the link?

  50. Jeff Wichitaks December 27, 2015 at 1:33 am - Reply

    Around 11:30 tonight here in Wichita temps dropped to 31 and the car is covered in a sheet of ice. Its been raining lightly since then I see a big area of moisture about to cross the Ok KS boarder here soon I hope it changes over to sleet or snow DO NOT ant a major ice storm here. The winds have been howling all evening here 30 to 35 with gust over 45. My lights in the house have flickered off and on a few times. I hope we do not lose power. They have changed the snow forcast for us from 35 to 5 to 8 now. Said to check back in the morning as the storm was shifting more to the east and if it continued we could get more then the 5 to 8 inches they are calling for. One station even hinted that they may have to bump up our winter storm warning to a Blizzard warning. For what ever its worth to my friends up north in KC they are telling us down here that you all are going to get 2 5 inches of snow monday, if traveling up that way.

  51. Jeff Wichitaks December 27, 2015 at 1:35 am - Reply

    snow amount should of been from 3-5 not 35 sorry for typo

  52. Jeff Wichitaks December 27, 2015 at 1:37 am - Reply

    damn ment 2-5 inches in kc sorry once again for typo. Hard to type with broken finger.

  53. Jack December 27, 2015 at 2:39 am - Reply

    Looking the NAM from hours 20-32 it was mostly ice pellets with 1-2 hours of freezing then it looks like we are dry slotted. I then looked at the amount precip that fell in those 12 hours and it said around 1.5 inches. So that would probably be about a little less than 1.5 inches of ice pellets!

    After further analysis.. from hours 27-30 which is I think 3-6 A.M. it puts in the middle of the comma head….http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122706&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=030

    It gives us about 0.5 inches of liquid which if it were snow would be 5 inches of snow in those 3 hours.. but the model has it starting at freezing rain at hour 27 and then to ice pellets.. that would be some heavy ice!

    Between the hours 30-33 it still has us right in the middle of the comma head, but the dry slot is coming our way…http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122706&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=032
    Between these hours we get another 0.7-0.8 inches of liquid! But all of this is still ice pellets. If this were snow it would result in at east 12-13 inches of snow but instead it is a ton of ice pellets.

    Then from 33-45 hours it finally becomes cold enough for snow but after the dry slot there is not much left. This results in about maybe a dusting-1 of snow for our area.

    That is my very long analyzation of 6z nam. Tell my your thoughts, anything I missed. It still brings us inclement weather but in the form of ice pellets. It brings a swath of 6-12 inches of snow across central Kansas. But looking at the radar, the area of this snow seems to far west and north to me.. I feel like the track of the low on the nam is too far west.. I feel like the low is tracking more like the GFS. That is my gut feeling.. also the freezing line got very close to the metro late tonight! If I were a meteorologist, I would predict a good amount of sleet followed by a period of snow with 2-4 inches of snow with that likely to change in an upwards possession. Well those are my late night thoughts.. I am only in high school, so I would love to hear thoughts.. also not proofreading all of this, so if there are typos, stay with me!!

    • MMike December 27, 2015 at 6:58 am - Reply

      Jack,

      Thanks for your analysis on that model run. I think anything is possible with this strong storm. Anywhere from heavy ice, to heavy sleet to a very heavy snow band somewhere close. Looks like everything is possible. Heck, it may stay all rain too…

      As always, we will have to track temps and radar trends later today.

      Fun…Fun.

    • Rockdoc December 27, 2015 at 8:56 am - Reply

      Gary, I think we have a good candidate for met school. Jack, Great Job in your analysis!

  54. Alex Pickman December 27, 2015 at 3:49 am - Reply

    GFS continues to look beautiful

    • Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 5:12 am - Reply

      Can you post a link?

  55. Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 5:36 am - Reply

    I’ve been watching this storm all night!! I LOVE winter! Can’t wait to see how it all comes together today!

  56. Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 6:10 am - Reply

    NWS discussion saying it’s not out of the question to get 1″+ of ice in KC though .1-.3 looks most likely at this time. Thoughts? We had 2-3″ ice in 2002 and shut down everything for 1-2 weeks. An inch would be close to just as bad.

  57. Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 6:17 am - Reply

    Upgraded to WSW

    • Heat Miser December 27, 2015 at 6:17 am - Reply

      Winter Storm Warning that is

  58. Weatherfreaker December 27, 2015 at 6:19 am - Reply

    While 1+” ice totals are not currently forecast…the dayshift will
    definitely have to watch 12z model solutions as a slight jog in the
    expected storm track could have drastic implications in the
    forecast. What does look pretty certain however is strong winds
    later tonight and Monday with gusts as high as 45 mph possible.
    Strong combined with ice accretion on power lines and trees could
    lead to sporadic power outages across the area. Impacts from icing
    events are normally magnified when strong winds are in place…and
    current fcst of 45 mph wind gusts obviously has us concerned. It
    should be stated that additional forecast adjustments are likely
    following the arrival of 12z model guidance…so please stay tuned
    to later forecast updates.

  59. Stacey December 27, 2015 at 6:32 am - Reply

    Hi! This is my first time chiming in because I love reading what everyone else has to offer. You all are so much more knowledgeable then I will ever be. That being said, I just watched JD’s forecast, and taking into account the NWS, and you all, I just don’t buy the snow totals. I am worried we will have a major icing event with higher snow totals. But I could be all wrong. Frankly, trying to understand the maps that are posted give me a headache!
    Thanks for all the fun!

  60. Bob December 27, 2015 at 7:13 am - Reply

    This NAM is an important run.

    • Waldo Weather December 27, 2015 at 7:25 am - Reply

      Post it when it’s ready!

  61. MMike December 27, 2015 at 7:22 am - Reply

    I know we have to get through the big storm tonight and tomorrow…but model guidance is also showing a quick 1-2 inch snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That forecast will be much easier as it will be cold enough for all snow.

  62. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 7:51 am - Reply

    The WS warning doesn’t speak of much ice and says one inch of snow SE of I-35.

  63. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 8:19 am - Reply

    Better get to the grocery store today!!! ?

    • Gary December 27, 2015 at 8:22 am - Reply

      I am about to start the blog. It is 6:20 AM in Vegas. I just looked at the NAM. It takes the kind of track that would normally mean 12″ of snow, but in this “crazy” season thus far it appears that it is still just a bit warm for snow for most of this storm in KC. The sleet could add up, and the snowflake contest may end on 1″ of sleet first. How much sleet could fall before a changeover.

      Look for the new blog soon.

      Gary

      • Dale December 27, 2015 at 8:24 am - Reply

        Lol sleet baby!

        Go Rain and Sleet!

  64. Mr. Pete December 27, 2015 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Looks like a high of 35 tomorrow.

  65. McCabe58 December 27, 2015 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Highly doubtful Petey… Pun intended. Especially with all this ice and snow about to hit tonight and tomorrow ?

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