A Major 3-Day Storm System Begins

/A Major 3-Day Storm System Begins

A Major 3-Day Storm System Begins

Good Saturday bloggers,

This is Jeff Penner doing the blog as Gary is taking a much deserved morning off. He is planning on doing an updated blog later this afternoon or evening.

We have a major storm system that will be moving into the middle part of the USA later today.  It will not exit until Monday night.  We have had our eyes on this storm system between Christmas and New Years for weeks.  There is much to go over, let’s get started.

Here are the current watches and warning.  There is a Blizzard warning for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.  This may not be great news for humans and cattle, but it is great news for the winter wheat crop.  There is a Winter Storm Watch across central and eastern Kansas to central Oklahoma.  There are Winter Storm Warning and advisories across Nebraska, northwest Iowa and South Dakota, but these are for a lead storm system now in those areas.

9

Wow!  Look at this temperature gradient on the morning after Christmas.  It is 72 in Dallas and 14 in Denver.  Yes, a major storm is getting it’s act together.

9-1

Lets go through the latest data and time this storm out as best as we can.  This is subject to change based on new data.

SATURDAY 3 PM: This is the day for travel and errands.  The storm is not cranked up yet.  There will be heavy rain from central Oklahoma to eastern Missouri, the I-44 corridor.  The rest of the region will be calm.

1

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rain, heavy at times will spread north into eastern Kansas and Missouri. Temperatures will be mostly above freezing.  Snow, freezing rain and sleet will be increasing across southwest Kansas. It will remain dry across Nebraska and Iowa.

2

SUNDAY MORNING: The rain from tonight moves off to the east, so that most locations north of I-70 will be mainly dry.  Temperatures will be just below freezing northwest of I-35, so we will have to watch for some minor icing before the overnight rain ends and areas of black ice from remaining water.  The main storm is now moving out into west Texas and is getting ready to spread the precipitation north.

3

SUNDAY PM/EVENING: The main storm begins it’s northeast track and here comes the huge area of precipitation.  Rain, heavy at times, is likely across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  We will have to watch the temperatures like a hawk.  If they stay 31-32 or warmer, roads will be mostly wet, with some ice on trees.  If the temperatures drop to 29-32, then we could have an ice storm on our hands.  We lean with the warmer scenario.  A snowstorm is increasing over southwest Kansas with a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain in central Kansas.

4

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING:  The storm heads north and heavy rain moves through eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  There is a chance that Sunday night enough warm air heads north to keep it all rain into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.  Again, every degrees is critical.  A snowstorm will be raging across western Kansas with freezing rain and sleet along I-80.  What a mess.

5

MONDAY PM/NIGHT: The main storm heads north and the precipitation ends along the I-70 corridor.  The I-80 corridor will be dealing with the freezing rain, sleet and snow.  Will KC see its first accumulating snow?  The chance is certainly there.  It depends heavily on the track of the storm.  We still could see a dusting to 2″ if the upper low tracks near or just southeast of KC.  If it tracks a bit further southeast, then amounts will increase.  We will not know this answer until later Sunday.

6

The amounts of rain and snow are two incredible stories with this system.  First the rainfall potential.  Look at this, now keep in mind KC averages 1.53″ for the entire month of December.  2″-3″ of rain is possible along I-70 with 3″-5″, close to 6″ possible south and east.  June averages about 4.50″ of rain, so yes this is rare and odd.

7

The second story is how much snow will occur.  The chance for one to two feet of snow is there for western Kansas!  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri has the chance for a dusting to 2-3″ of snow.  This will be highly dependent on the track.  We will have to take this one day at a time.

8

Here the potential tracks of the main upper low from the GFS and NAM.

GFS MONDAY NOON: The upper low is tracking across southwest Missouri.  This track would mean accumulating snow for KC.  The GFS has been trending west the last few days of model runs.

500 GFS MONDAY

NAM MONDAY NOON:  This is from the 12z.  The NAM has been consistent on a further west track and slower.  This has the upper low at noon northeast of Oklahoma City, but it is moving north-northeast.  This would be too far west for KC to see more than a dusting to maybe an 1″.  Now, all of this being said.  It is a strong storm and every mile the track shifts west or east will be critical.  Realistically, we will not know the exact track until Sunday night or Monday.

500 NAM MONDAY

I hope you had a Merry Christmas and have a happy and safe New Year.

Gary will update the blog later today.

Jeff Penner

2017-01-16T07:08:19+00:00 December 26th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. Tim December 26, 2015 at 9:07 am - Reply

    12Z NAM holding to the same track more to the west and northwest. Will the 12z GFS keep in KC’s favor of snow or begin to trend toward the NAM? We shall see within the hour!

  2. Bob December 26, 2015 at 9:49 am - Reply

    The GFS shifted the snow slightly West, siding with the NAM. Maybe a dusting to an inch if it doesn’t shift anymore West.

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 10:08 am - Reply

      12Z GFS show a sharper gradient than previous runs in KC. A trace in eastern Jackson county to 5.5″ at the airport. The track of the Low is the same as previous runs. Still at 993mb to our south. I don’t think this run can be discounted as trending toward the NAM yet.

      • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 10:19 am - Reply

        It’s been trending NW the last two days. This will be a rainstorm for the KC metro.

  3. Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 9:52 am - Reply

    Maybe one day KC…

  4. Tim December 26, 2015 at 9:59 am - Reply

    12z Hi-Res NAM has KC as .75-1.0″ Ice followed by 1.5″ snow…

  5. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 10:00 am - Reply

    I really think the GFS should be thrown out. It’s been showing snow with 500mb heights over 540 for run after run now, and surface temps above freezing. It’s full of it.

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 10:24 am - Reply

      12Z GFS has KC in the two county wide zone where the surface is too warm but the column is below freezing most of the way down until 6pm Monday. My question is if the column is cold enough for snow– if the precip falls hard enough as snow can’t that influence the temperature by dropping the temperature further?

  6. Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Good Morning Jeff. Welcome back to the blog:) Thank you for the update and showing the 2 different ULL tracks so we can compare position. Watched you on TV this am. Know you don’t have time to do this on the show. Quick question. NWS indicated that a wedge of warm air would push in. At what elevation do we need to watch for on this in terms of freezing rain/pellets? Is it the 850-925 mb zone? I think it is based on JD’s skew-T charts. Maybe going forward we can have a few of those tossed in if it starts getting dicy with the ice. After all, we’re weather geeks:)

  7. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 10:03 am - Reply

    RGEM shows us getting heavy ice.

    This is going to mainly be a freezing rain for the KC metro area with up to 1″ of ice accumulation possible.

  8. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 10:10 am - Reply

    Most likely won’t even get a flake. WAA always wins guys. Typical KC storm set up. Another storm wasted on a cold rain. First half of January looks cold but rather dry so it might be a while before our next chance of something that resembles a winter storm.

  9. Alice December 26, 2015 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Cold rain…not what we wanted. Sigh
    Still hope for some snow…not giving up yet.

    But if the snowflake contest continues, then maybe we will really get dumped on 50 days from now when this one comes through again ?? February can see big snows !
    Or how about the Thanksgiving storm…..middle of January ?

  10. Tim December 26, 2015 at 10:29 am - Reply

    SREF shows a 60% chance of 6″+ in metro and 90% of at least 3″

    • Morgan December 26, 2015 at 10:41 am - Reply

      That’s hilarious. Temps will be in the mid to upper thirties.

  11. Alex Pickman December 26, 2015 at 10:43 am - Reply

    I wonder what happened to Terry. Havnt seen him on here in a while.

  12. Bob December 26, 2015 at 10:46 am - Reply

    Imo I’m thinking not much snow for KC. Any amount of warm air aloft and we get either a cold rain or even sleet. If this was major for us Gary would be back in KC.

  13. Tim December 26, 2015 at 10:47 am - Reply

    12z Canadian (GEM) shows similar to the 12z GFS, but dipping a further south and east at first. KC with the sharp gradient as well– 2″ in eastern Jackson Country to 8″ at the airport. At or below freezing at surface from Midnight/Mon AM through the entire day.

    12Z RGEM shows Ice event although it only goes out to 48 hours, so do not think it reflects our snow chances yet.

  14. Dobber December 26, 2015 at 10:47 am - Reply

    You armchair meteorologists throwing out ridiculous thoughts and opinions on models crack me up! I’m not talking about the ones who actually make sense. You know who you are! Lol

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 10:51 am - Reply

      LOL! I’d hate to be a meteorologist right now. You look at all the model data and its still all conflicting just like yesterday. We’ll see what the Euro says in an hour or so. If it shows the same as the previous runs, lord knows what the heck is gonna happen.

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 10:52 am - Reply

      At least they add to the blog.

      • Dobber December 26, 2015 at 1:15 pm - Reply

        How much did that comment cost? I don’t hide my identity like you do. Go snow or rain!

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 11:11 am - Reply

      That’s what I’ve been saying the last 7-10 days. I know this is what this blog is for, and that’s fine, but people have been looking at what kind of precip should accompany this storm for the last week plus as the models go back and forth, back and forth. I grown to realize that other than to see that a storm of some kind is coming our way, it’s not rational or reasonable to expect the models to know the precip type 3 days out in KC, much less a week. Even Penner on this blog admits they won’t know until the eve of the storm with this one. It may be fun to try to guess the precip type 10 days out, but as long as we realize it’s pure speculation and little else. I have finally learned that to look at each model run way ahead of a winter storm and to get excited with one snowy run, then down with each non-snowy run, is silly. They just aren’t able to predict this very far out at all. I do think once you hit 48 hrs pre-storm…at least you can have decent shot at a prediction, but even then it can be very hit and miss in this part of the country.

      • Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:23 am - Reply

        That works both ways. Obviously if every model was playing the same tune right now, this wouldn’t even be discussed and we’d all be preparing for something decent or nothing at all. This event will be significant– whether its wintry in KC or not. With people traveling back from the Holidays the impacts of this event will be major across the central US. With no certainty yet is the major cause for concern. The fact it weather is weather– whats going to happen over the next 48-60 hours is going to happen whether predicted or not. What I will say –is I sure hope the meteorologists don’t make a final prediction sunday night for snow, followed by “we nailed it” on Tuesday. Its ok to say “we just didnt know until it started”.

        • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 11:31 am - Reply

          True, but too often in the part of the country, the models go back and forth. I think they are largely useful to say a major storm of some kind is coming from way out as I said before, but KC floats in a zone too often that is a borderline between snow and rain…and that kinds of specificity is not forecastable in this neck of the woods very far out ahead of the storm. That being said, I know it’s fun to try and guess…I just think that’s all it is most of the time…a guess. At least now we are getting close to the storm and the accuracy rate will climb from here. Interested to see what the model runs do today and tomorrow. 😉

          • Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:52 am - Reply

            Heat you are definitely right there. Its just fun to look for a sign of consistency when a bigger storm is to be in the region. Being a transplant to KC 5 years ago– having lived in North Carolina most of my life– it was always nice to see the weather literally come for 3-4 days. Models always much more accurate because 3-4 days out the models already had sampling. Things change on a dime here. I try to keep the predictions to a minimum. I simply spit the model data out when I have the time. Its too easy to have one’s wish influence a prediction!

  15. Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:01 am - Reply

    NAVGEM also favors more off a eastern/southern track…

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 11:15 am - Reply

      That’s great, but does anybody besides the Navy use that model? I don’t think I’ve ever heard it mentioned here?

  16. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 11:30 am - Reply

    Let’s talk DGEX while we’re at it.

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 11:33 am - Reply

      LoL

      Now, are these models that are known to be unreliable but they have snowier results so we are referencing them now? Or am I being to cynical? LoL I mean, I want snow as much as the next guy, but I don’t want to reach too far either.

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:36 am - Reply

      Funny…

  17. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 11:38 am - Reply

    Happy Saturday everyone!!!

    Before I say anything this morning, I want to start by saying I am nothing but a hobbyist on a good day so what I type is most likely off the mark….but you know the Holiday Inn and all!!!!! 

    I am going to take a respectfully different take than most on the blog this morning.

    Frist of all both the GFS and NAM have missed the freeze line and the position of the front by about 50-100 miles when they initialized which has the 16Z off by about the same amount. The front is currently through Topeka and Emporia as each are reporting winds from the North. The freeze line is currently through Hill City and almost to Russell, Kansas……so it will be interesting to follow this today and see what happens with all of it on the 0z runs tonight.

    If you compare the 12Z NAM to the 0Z NAM the 12Z is taking the upper low further east than what the 0Z. On the 0Z the upper low went from between Tulsa and Oklahoma City to Pittsburg to Nevada, Missouri where the 12Z is going from Tulsa to Joplin then a jog to the east then north to Hannibal, Missouri….it is slowly moving more in line with the GFS. The NAM surface did not really reflect this change in the track of the upper level low….it will be interesting to see what the 0Z shows tonight.

    I am probably wrong here and probably looking at this with SW Lawrence eyes, but to me the 12Z GFS looks pretty good. One thing that is interesting is that the upper low is kind of getting squeezed by energy diving down in California and the ridge to the east off of Florida. The upper low heads east out of Texas across Little Rock then heads almost due North due to that ridge off of Florida and the energy in the west. If any of these are modeled wrong at all, then the track output is totally worthless. That said, the track of the surface low is about 80-100 miles east on the GFS compared to the NAM and has been for the past several runs. The freeze line is through Lawrence tomorrow and really stays through Lawrence…..by hour 51 the 850 freezing line is all the way to KC…..it looks pretty good to me honestly.

    I am going to ride the GFS…yes it has corrected itself but it still has in essence the same track through Missouri whereas the 12Z NAM for sure moved the upper level low track further east. I will probably wind up with egg all over my face but I will ride it!!!

    One last ramble….the LRC really scored a hit here…this storm is right on schedule and honestly based on the track of the cycle 1 version you could have extrapolated a track in cycle 2 that would look like what both the GFS and NAM are producing….obviously the exact track will not present itself until the event but thinking in November that in 55 days there will be a storm that will track between Topeka and Columbia gives you a pretty good head start on all the types of weather that could occur.

    Time to really start watching the surface observations as much as the models….will be interesting to follow the wind shift lines and cold air today.

    Have a great Saturday everyone!!

    Bill in Lawrence

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:46 am - Reply

      Bill– great write up. I didn’t really catch the slight eastward track of low from 0z to 12z NAM. It seems to me the NAM and the Euro were the only models continually keeping the low more toward the west… but we’ll see what the 12z Euro shows. Think it might greatly effect the tone of the blog today! lol

      • Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 12:11 pm - Reply

        What time does that come out?

    • MikeL December 26, 2015 at 12:29 pm - Reply

      Nice analysis Bill! I did notice the windshift earlier here in SW Topeka but did not bother to check the timing of it. 48 degrees and holding here at the moment. The 12z Euro nudged me back into the six inch snow range. What a difference even 50 miles may make in this storm.

  18. Tim December 26, 2015 at 11:41 am - Reply

    The NAVGEM is simply used for surface / synoptic scale features

  19. Tim December 26, 2015 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    12z Euro has KC temps surface temps above freezing until Midnight/Mon AM where it stays at 32F, then rising Mon afternoon to upper 30s. Appears this run keeps the same track of the low running NNE in between KC and Columbia—but just a tad deeper. Net result is sharp gradient for snow in KC area from trace in eastern Jackson County to 3.5” at KCI. I’ll see if I can pull any Frz/Ice data…

  20. Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    Dropped 4 degrees in about 30 mins

  21. Larry Stewart December 26, 2015 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    We might get a mixed event in Nw. Nj Monday night and. Tuesday. Is this part of the same storm system?

  22. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 1:37 pm - Reply

    All you really have to do is use common sense with this storm, throw all the models out. There is no real Arctic air in this year’s LRC pattern. We have struggled with 3000 ft temps being +15F warmer than the surface on every single storm event we have had so far. None of the models give us much snow when you count for the fact you generally reduce the GFS output by 30%, and since NAM usually has a cold bias and is running warm, that’s another warning sign.

    It’s going to be mostly all rain with no issues in the KC metro area except maybe a light glaze on trees, and if we are very lucky a dusting of snow.

  23. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Also note that Gary said just a few days ago the AO was at it’s peak

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 1:52 pm - Reply

      And yet a couple of days ago Gary gets everyone excited with that latest model run saying over a foot of snow for KC show on the models…”could it be true or is it just fantasy?”, implying at the very least he considered it possible right? You don’t have to have arctic air to get a good snow storm in KC.

      • f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 1:58 pm - Reply

        But when temps are running around a phenomenal 20 degrees above average for an entire month you need something substantial to stir the pot – not mid 30s to near 40 degrees!

        • HEAT MISER December 26, 2015 at 2:21 pm - Reply

          Yeah, obviously not mid thirties

  24. Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    I would be very very excited if Gary updated the blog. He isn’t. Rain rain rain. Maybe in January.

    • CRW December 26, 2015 at 2:27 pm - Reply

      I don’t know. I’m beginning to think maybe next year.

  25. Auri December 26, 2015 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Wsw for liberty. Possible 7 inches snow and 2/10th inches of ice

  26. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 2:14 pm - Reply

    Northland with a WSW. Maybe we’ll get a flood watch here in KC. Sounds so great in late December.

  27. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    Winter Storm Watch for Kansas City

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037-
    270415-
    /O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0003.151228T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
    ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
    JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
    PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-
    BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ATCHISON…PAOLA…MOUND CITY…TROY…
    LEAVENWORTH…KANSAS CITY KS…OVERLAND PARK…OLATHE…TARKIO…
    ROCKPORT…MARYVILLE…GRANT CITY…ALBANY…STANBERRY…
    BETHANY…PRINCETON…UNIONVILLE…LANCASTER…DOWNING…OREGON…
    SAVANNAH…CAMERON…GALLATIN…JAMESPORT…TRENTON…MILAN…
    GREEN CITY…ST. JOSEPH…PLATTSBURG…KINGSTON…HAMILTON…
    POLO…CHILLICOTHE…PARKVILLE…PLATTE CITY…WESTON…LIBERTY…
    EXCELSIOR SPRINGS…RICHMOND…KANSAS CITY…INDEPENDENCE
    202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
    MONDAY NIGHT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS
    ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
    EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

    * SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
    THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

    * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

    * SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

    * THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

  28. HEAT MISER December 26, 2015 at 2:25 pm - Reply

    Winter Storm Watch for Kansas City

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037-
    270415-
    /O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0003.151228T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
    ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
    JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
    PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-
    BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ATCHISON…PAOLA…MOUND CITY…TROY…
    LEAVENWORTH…KANSAS CITY KS…OVERLAND PARK…OLATHE…TARKIO…
    ROCKPORT…MARYVILLE…GRANT CITY…ALBANY…STANBERRY…
    BETHANY…PRINCETON…UNIONVILLE…LANCASTER…DOWNING…OREGON…
    SAVANNAH…CAMERON…GALLATIN…JAMESPORT…TRENTON…MILAN…
    GREEN CITY…ST. JOSEPH…PLATTSBURG…KINGSTON…HAMILTON…
    POLO…CHILLICOTHE…PARKVILLE…PLATTE CITY…WESTON…LIBERTY…
    EXCELSIOR SPRINGS…RICHMOND…KANSAS CITY…INDEPENDENCE
    202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
    MONDAY NIGHT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS
    ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
    EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

    * SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
    THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

    * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

    * SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

    * THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

    • Gary December 26, 2015 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      Hey bloggers,

      I will be writing up a new blog on this major storm system by around 5 PM KC time. The new NAM again has very little snow in KC, but potentially some ice, tremendous amounts of rain. Most importantly, it’s a very strong storm and it hasn’t decided what it’s going to do yet. There will likely be a band of high snow amounts west and northwest of KC, but where. I will write up the blog soon.

      Gary

      • Steve December 26, 2015 at 3:53 pm - Reply

        Thanks, Gary. Your attention to the storm while on vacation is appreciated. Here’s hoping the Lezak Leaving Town Index is about to peak!

  29. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Sorry sent that twice. 🙁

  30. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 2:37 pm - Reply

    Latest NAM shows temps in Olathe 33F the whole event with rain, no snow.

    NAM shows no snow in metro KC

    NWS may have to change this to Ice Storm Warning along and north of I-35.

  31. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    No need for a WSW in KC. All rain according to pretty much every model. Not sure what the NWS is doing.

  32. f00dl3 December 26, 2015 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    I think the reason why we are in the Winter Storm watch is they are erroring on the side of caution. This is the kind of scenario where most likely temps will stay above freezing, but if it does get a bit colder there could be prolific accumulations of ice. There still may be some minor slushy accumulations of freezing rain on elevated surfaces especially trees and power lines in areas that are in valleys and outside the city.

    If the models have it wrong – less likely – but if they do, we could have 2-3 inches of freezing rain.

  33. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    Models have been changing all along…mabye they are employing a cya strategy.

    • Dale December 26, 2015 at 3:25 pm - Reply

      Rain. Pure and simple. Go to Dodge City and see some serious snow. Maybe we can see some sleet too.

      Go Rain.

  34. Skylar December 26, 2015 at 3:45 pm - Reply

    New GFS giving 6″+ for KC. Both 18z runs show a slight eastward shift.

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 3:48 pm - Reply

      Excellent!

      • Clint December 26, 2015 at 3:54 pm - Reply

        Heat us guys in Missouri need some cool air any chance that cold blooded brother of yours can help us out

        • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 4:08 pm - Reply

          Not sure where that popsicle head is these days!

  35. McCabe58 December 26, 2015 at 4:01 pm - Reply

    Penner is saying most rain with a little snow possible Monday night on Twitter… I’m not sure what the nws is seeing that you guys aren’t? I know we have to wait to see where the storm track sets up, but when will there be an actual forecast made? We’re within 48 hours of the storm…

  36. Alex Pickman December 26, 2015 at 4:03 pm - Reply

    18z GFS sure is purdy

  37. McCabe58 December 26, 2015 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    Alex is that the most recent? And can you post a link please

  38. Jack December 26, 2015 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151226+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    Here is the 18z nam track of the storm. This seems like a perfect track for our viewing area but all the snow is in southwestern and central Kansas. What I do not understand is why that is happening.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151226+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    That is the 18z gfs storm track and it gives us 6-8 inches of snow? Why? The temperatures? What map to you look at to see the blue and red lines to see where the freezing line is?

    I still have no idea what to think on this storm at all whatsoever. Interested to hear everyone’s thoughts.

  39. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    LoL…check out JD’s blog on KSHB website today. Very long, and translation is basically…”we have absolutely no idea of which track it will take or which precipitation type to expect”.

    • LS Mike December 26, 2015 at 4:13 pm - Reply

      Yea I read JD’s post and was totally confused. I was like “what the hey” Lol

    • Jack December 26, 2015 at 4:13 pm - Reply

      Wasn’t that written on the 25th??

      • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 4:21 pm - Reply

        Ooops, I stand corrected…he wrote that yesterday.

  40. Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 4:15 pm - Reply

    Brand new WSW for Lawrence area (my neck of the woods). Sounds kinda nasty with the ice part.

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
    409 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    KSZ040-056-059-271200-
    /O.EXA.KTOP.WS.A.0002.151227T1800Z-151229T0000Z/
    DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAWRENCE…OTTAWA…GARNETT
    409 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
    MONDAY AFTERNOON…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    AFTERNOON.

    * TIMING…A MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN
    SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE BULK OF
    WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

    * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…A COMBINATION OF SNOW…SLEET AND
    FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
    ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ALONG AND NEAR A LINE
    FROM EMPORIA TO TOPEKA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO SIX
    INCHES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SENECA.
    WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS
    LINE.

    * MAIN IMPACTS…HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS…TREE DAMAGE AND
    POWER OUTAGES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

    &&

    $$

  41. Clint December 26, 2015 at 4:21 pm - Reply

    Looks like the often ignored Canadian model has the right take on this storm.

  42. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Happy Saturday afternoon everybody!!

    Random observations….If I am reading things right….the front is currently draped from say Davenport, Iowa down to Columbia’s door step through Tulsa Oklahoma and then deep into west Texas. It is further east than what guidance had suggested on the 12Z runs. Concordia Kansas is at 35 and Manhattan is down to 38 both with NW winds gusting to 25 MPH. There are teens being reported in south west Nebraska. The cold air is there….question is how far can it get and how resilient will it be.

    I admit I have not looked at an 18Z run of any model since the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009 when both the 18Z NAM and GFS took the entire storm to Cape Girardeau 12 hours before the storm was supposed to start. That said, I am riding the 12Z GFS. It did correct itself from the south east Missouri track but it had less of a jump from the 0Z to the 12Z that the NAM had. I will probably eat crow as the 0Z GFS may well take the upper level low right over my house, but I think it will stick to the track is has basically shown for the past 3-4 runs as I think the current surface data supports that track.

    The 0Z runs will be interesting for sure….

    Have a great evening everyone..

    Bill in Lawrence

  43. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 4:33 pm - Reply

    It’s pouring snow in El Paso right now during the bowl game. Really weird to see this.

  44. Alice December 26, 2015 at 4:36 pm - Reply

    Watching the Sun Bowl in El Paso TX..it is snowing to beat the band down there !
    Wow…….is this unusual down there ? (Higher elevation ? )
    According to the sportscaster, he just now said it is 35 degrees there and they are under a WS Warning.
    Wow……35 degrees and HEAVY snow…..could that happen here ?

  45. Alice December 26, 2015 at 4:39 pm - Reply

    Comment awaiting moderation…..trying again

    Watching the Sun Bowl in El Paso TX..it is snowing heavy down there !
    Wow…….is this unusual down there ? (Higher elevation ? )
    According to the sportscaster, he just now said it is 35 degrees there and they are under a WS Warning.
    Wow……35 degrees and heavy snow…..could that happen here ?

    • Gary December 26, 2015 at 4:50 pm - Reply

      Alice,

      I am at the casino, and I saw that snow falling. I didn’t even realize it was El Paso. Wow!!!

      I just started a new blog.

      Gary

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