Christmas Weekend Storm Develops

/Christmas Weekend Storm Develops

Christmas Weekend Storm Develops

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Weather2020 Bloggers,

Kansas City came close to having a white Christmas. We had dense ice fog this morning and the grass and roofs turned white in some areas. Now, is snow in our near future? The Christmas weekend storm is now forming.

1

This first map shows the trough dropping into a spot that we have seen many times already this season. From here, however, it gets very complex. This storm is about to be left behind with the northern branch separating across Canada.

2I am going to use this next map to track the upper low on this latest NAM model that is coming out now. For KC we will want this to track across the Arkansas/Missouri border south of Joplin, and then bodily move across central or eastern Missouri. Let’s see if it takes this perfect track.

Every solution from here will likely narrow in on what will happen. It is still three days out, so hang on for this ride.

Here it the map that I am currently plotting the path on from the first model coming out this morning. This is the NAM model track. And, it is coming in wet for Saturday night with rain, freezing rain, and snow near by. Let’s take a look:

2

Well, here is the first model run of the morning. It takes a hard turn northeast. Now, what does this mean?

6

I am sure emotions are going to get stirred up the next few days. I will be monitoring from Vegas, and I will only fly back if it is a “sure thing” that KC gets a significant snow (like 4″ or more). How often do we have a sure thing in our neck of the woods?  Anyway, there is a lot to analyze. I could go on and on and on in this blog, but I will wait another day or two to do that as this is just one model. Did you see what it showed? This NAM model had over 4 inches liquid equivalent on the south side of the KC metro area with some snow/sleet near the beginning and again near the end. The storm seems to be taking a very favorable track. This is rather complex. Let’s see what the other models show.

Have a great Christmas Day and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. I am on my way to Vegas today to cash in this ticket.

 

DSCN2787

Happy Holidays from our dogs and Stewie. Today is Breezy’s 10th birthday!

DSCN2782

Gary

2017-01-16T07:08:09+00:00 December 25th, 2015|General|154 Comments

154 Comments

  1. Waldo Weather December 25, 2015 at 8:37 am - Reply

    MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!! can’t wait to see maps posted today of hopefully for all snow for us!

  2. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 8:41 am - Reply

    Merry Christmas to everyone. Looks like the NAM is NW and warm giving us ice.

  3. f00dl3 December 25, 2015 at 8:44 am - Reply

    06/12z NAM gives 1.5″ of Freezing Rain before rising to 33F.

    06z GFS is mostly snow with 4-6″ snow, ~2/10″ ice, much less moisture.

  4. Dale December 25, 2015 at 9:01 am - Reply

    How ironic. Those wanting a northward shift got thier wish. Only it moved enough to avoid snow in KC. I feel bad for the snowies, I hope they can make it to Omaha to see some snow before this Winter is over. Well, let’s see what the GFS says. I think I know!!

    Goooo Rain!

    • Dobber December 25, 2015 at 9:11 am - Reply

      Merry Christmas dale. At least we don’t have drought conditions to worry about. Cheers!

    • HEAT MISER December 25, 2015 at 9:55 am - Reply

      Looks like a great chance for snow!

    • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 9:55 am - Reply

      Looks like a great chance for snow! Sorry Dale, even your your super power ability of being a complete xxxx can’t stop it. Go SNOW!!!!

      • Dale December 25, 2015 at 9:59 am - Reply

        This coming from the boy who says it’s too early to rush to judgement and not trust models.

        • HEAT MISER December 25, 2015 at 10:05 am - Reply

          Naw, I’m just being a contrarian to your di*ckishness. Someone has to counteract the dark side. Now shhh…disappear.

        • Alice December 25, 2015 at 10:05 am - Reply

          Oh come on guys…..can’t we just all get along. It is Christmas……please let’s just calm down. No name calling. No back and forth gotchas today, ok ? A storm is coming ……maybe snow, maybe not.
          As Gary says, just enjoy the ride. Please.

          Merry Christmas, and God bless us everyone.

        • Gary December 25, 2015 at 10:05 am - Reply

          Okay, this is not allowed in this blog! Let’s not blast each other. Everyone is allowed to offer your opinion, but there will be no personal attacks period. Please follow the rules, and let’s have fun. There will be those on here that will like to “bully” around and tell the snow enthusiast, “I told you so”. An I told you so is acceptable, barely, but that’s it. You can’t call someone a name. Please don’t tease anyone. Let’s have fun. This has been a great blog this week with some fantastic interaction. It has to continue to be a positive experience for us. We are sharing in this exciting weather experience together.

          I am on my way to Vegas. Our moderator will be monitoring the blog. Any unacceptable comments will be deleted. Please just follow the rules.

          Gary

          • HEAT MISER December 25, 2015 at 10:09 am - Reply

            Sounds good to me Gary, but not letting people tease the snow lovers will ruin all of Dale’s fun. If he can’t do that he’ll leave. That would be a shame.

          • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:18 am - Reply

            Gary,

            I think this is very sad. I’m considering cancelling my subscription. I didn’t pay for this blog to see the same kiddish behaviors that stirred up waters on the kshb weatherblog back over here doing the same. Your same “warnings” on the KSHB weatherblog did absolutely nothing over there except lead to the closure of what was probably the best local weather resource in KC. If you can’t control your blog and begin to suspend accounts that behave this way then I will just suspend my own subscription.

            • Gary December 25, 2015 at 10:21 am - Reply

              It won’t be tolerated Tim, we promise! This will not be allowed!

              Gary

              • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:35 am

                We’ll see gary– but history only continues to repeat itself.. just look at the example from the KSHB blog in 2013. I think its pretty easy to see the instigators there and here “http://weatherblog.kshb.com/winter-storm-warning-update-510-pm/”

              • HEAT MISER December 25, 2015 at 10:44 am

                I will say that Dale’s blog behavior bears a striking resemblance to MUKU, remember him?

      • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 10:11 am - Reply

        Yup, will be sledding on Monday. It’ll be awesome!!!!

  5. Blue Flash December 25, 2015 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Congratulations Gary! Go Royals!

    • CRW December 25, 2015 at 9:11 am - Reply

      Congrats Gary!!

  6. Alice December 25, 2015 at 9:20 am - Reply

    Merry Christmas / Happy holidays everyone !

    So, what are you seeing for Sun/Mon ? I have no clue about models, so relying on all of you model-savy bloggers.
    Snow ? Ice ? Rain ? Some of each ?
    I hope we don’t have an ice storm. I don’t think any of us want that.

    Everyone have a great day and weekend.

  7. Steven December 25, 2015 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Joined your blog today. We moved from the KC area in 1996 to east coast and Kentucky and just recently retired to Salina. I don’t know if you are familiar with him or not, but a Lexington, Ky, meteorologist, Chris Bailey, has a weather blog that I have followed for years. You have big shoes to fill for me but it looks like from my first visit, you are filling them!?

    • Gary December 25, 2015 at 9:49 am - Reply

      Steven,

      Thank you for joining. We will keep you updated! This pattern is a fascinating one! New data is coming in!

      Gary

  8. SnowDays December 25, 2015 at 9:35 am - Reply

    Go Royals! Great bet Gary, the Royals have made me believe that anything is possible, maybe even that the NAM 3 days out will be wrong and we’ll get a significant snow in KC!!

  9. Baseball Mike December 25, 2015 at 10:03 am - Reply

    Gary-safe travels-a couple of other observations our dogs have been restless this morning usually happens before a big storm and our NWS site had the usual hazardous weather color on the map but now our whole area is white which might be an indication of something being issued soon.
    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  10. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 10:12 am - Reply

    GFS trends NW and we get rain with 2-3″ of snow mixed in. The inevitable NW trend has started.

    • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 10:17 am - Reply

      Who knows what tomorrow’s model will show. And the next day’s as well.

  11. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Canadian is NW as well. That makes three and the EURO has been NW the whole time.

  12. CRW December 25, 2015 at 10:43 am - Reply
  13. Bob December 25, 2015 at 10:43 am - Reply

    The NW turn looks to happen now. Lets see how the Euro does

    • Clint December 25, 2015 at 10:55 am - Reply

      Bob would you mind posting a update on the euro I live in the Warrensburg area

      • Gary December 25, 2015 at 10:57 am - Reply

        The Euro comes out in one hour.

        Gary

        • Waldo Weather December 25, 2015 at 10:59 am - Reply

          Can’t wait!!!

  14. Bob December 25, 2015 at 10:50 am - Reply

    The fighting is getting old. Just leave each other alone. Stop responding to Dale and Heat. Just calm down you two.

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:52 am - Reply

      exactly

  15. Jack December 25, 2015 at 11:24 am - Reply

    I think this next model run will be a big one. The 0z gfs put it all south of us, the 6z put us in the middle of it, and the 12z put lot to the northwest and the metro 3-5. It will be very interesting to see if this next model run puts it even more northwest- I sure hope it doesn’t. Also, could someone please let us know what the Euro says. Thank you!

    If I was a met. on T.V., for right now, I would be very conservative and say dusting-4… but I also feel like everyone snow storm starts that way and if it is a big one it slowly moves up.

    Jack

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 11:28 am - Reply

      It’s very interesting. At this point just about anything from a decent ice storm followed by a significant snow event to just plain miserable cold rain with mixed wintry precip is still on the table. Personally– lets have a foot of snow!

      • CRW December 25, 2015 at 11:31 am - Reply

        The cold rain with mixed wintry precipitation is the worst. If that were the case, would rather have just rain.

  16. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 11:29 am - Reply

    Never did understand why there is so much drama on a weather blog. Good grief.

  17. Tim December 25, 2015 at 11:59 am - Reply

    Do you know if its legit to post paid maps of EURO to this site if using tinypic links?

    • Jack December 25, 2015 at 12:16 pm - Reply

      I meant more like post what the data said not the actual map.

  18. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Looks like Jim Flowers might end up nailing this forecast.

    • CRW December 25, 2015 at 12:11 pm - Reply

      Morgan, I think you are right. What we have done is fall for the classic error in the GFS. The low will be over southern Iowa, not the boot heel of Missouri.

      • CRW December 25, 2015 at 12:33 pm - Reply

        Is there some reason that this comment is awaiting moderation?

  19. Tim December 25, 2015 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    Through 84 hours… 12z Euro shows KC no lower than 32 -34F through Monday AM, then shooting up to near 40F inthe afternoon. Almost all snow is to the west and Northwest about 100 miles. 1″ or less in KC area.

  20. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:18 pm - Reply

    Fantasy snow runs are over. All models are NW with cold rain in KC. I know there’s time but we’ve seen this movie before.

  21. Tim December 25, 2015 at 12:18 pm - Reply

    EURO brings the low almost NNE from OK to between KC and Columbia

  22. Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 12:37 pm - Reply

    Merry Christmas Gary and Weather 2020 bloggers. Gary, congratulations on your Royals bet!!! Have a blast out in Vegas and enjoy your well deserved vacation. Will you be checking in from time to time, or are going to totally disconnect? If we get snow here I’m sure that folks here will be posting photos. Anyways, enjoy ???. Safe travels?

  23. Tim December 25, 2015 at 12:42 pm - Reply

    Unfortunately, we’re so close to the edge of mainly rain or Ice + Snow .. with +/- 100 miles of track of low influencing one or the other (or some kind of mix).. These models are not going to pinpoint this until maybe tomorrow PM. A 50-100 mile difference from run to run at this far out is typical, but for KC the result of this 50- 100 mile difference is considerable– either mainly rain or mainly snow.

  24. Dale December 25, 2015 at 2:14 pm - Reply

    Euro looks like a cold rain to me.

    No drought, just rain baby!

  25. Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    Yup…I think it’s gonna be snow!

    • Mike December 25, 2015 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      Can you post the Euro map?

  26. CRW December 25, 2015 at 2:22 pm - Reply

    If the low pressure system is that close to and north of Kansas City, how could it be any thing but a cold rain. Perhaps it would have been snow had the low been directly south of Kansas City.

  27. Tim December 25, 2015 at 2:30 pm - Reply
  28. Mike December 25, 2015 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    Thank you Tim. Plenty of time for a shift to the South East if not very little snow for KC

  29. CRW December 25, 2015 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    Very minimal event indeed. Wasn’t Gary talking about a big storm towards the middle of January, like the one that came through around thanksgiving?

  30. Tim December 25, 2015 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    12z Euro Low placement.. you might have to hit zoom for it to show http://tinypic.com/r/25f14yq/9

  31. CRW December 25, 2015 at 2:40 pm - Reply

    Thanks Tim. That matches what I have heard elsewhere. It would be difficult to get snow with the low in that position. Will be a cold rain.

  32. Tim December 25, 2015 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    18Z NAM snow maps looking the same as the Euro.. waiting for the surface animations through 84 hours to generate and i’ll post it here

    • CRW December 25, 2015 at 2:50 pm - Reply

      Thank you!

  33. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 2:50 pm - Reply

    NAM is a cold rain. Snow maps not really necessary for this run. Some ice perhaps.

  34. Tim December 25, 2015 at 2:52 pm - Reply

    18z NAM snow map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=acc10snow&rh=2015122518&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=”

    18z NAM Freezing Rain Map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accfrzr&rh=2015122518&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=”

    “18z Surface Animation Map:
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=sfc&rh=2015122518&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=

  35. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Classic KC winter storm set up. Areas NW get the goods.

  36. Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 3:39 pm - Reply

    18z NAM zoomed into regional area shows it could be real ugly in Kansas from SW near Wichita through Topeka up through St. Joes. Total accumulation of freezing rain in Kansas is ~0.5-1 inch through Sunday. Snow total here in KC metro is a dusting to ~1 inch by late Monday evening. The UUL is closer to Joplin at 21z. GFS 18z run just coming in. Will be interesting comparing the 2.

    • Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Gary, or whoever is moderating, something is going on. Almost all my comments are showing moderation. What’s up with that? Answer please, since I always obey the rules and have never posted ugly comments directed towards anyone.

      • Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 4:03 pm - Reply

        Another one waiting moderation. I think your system is having technical issues or your word scanner is set too tight.

  37. Waldo Weather December 25, 2015 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    Got my acu rite rain gauge ready

  38. Bob December 25, 2015 at 3:51 pm - Reply

    Wow that 18z GFS is brutal for snow. GEEZ

  39. Jeff Wichitaks December 25, 2015 at 3:53 pm - Reply

    Well this issues for me down here in Wichita. Im so excited. . WINTER STORM WATCH.
    A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND
    HEAVY SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY
    INTO MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST WINTER
    PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
    INCHES…AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AROUND A
    QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  40. Tim December 25, 2015 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    Exactly my point from earlier.. 50-100 miles difference in track of low and makes a difference in the final results in KC:

    18z GFS Snow Map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2015122518&fh=90&r=c&dpdt=”

    18z GFS Surface Map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=sfc&rh=2015122518&fh=loop&r=c&dpdt=”

  41. Kurt December 25, 2015 at 4:08 pm - Reply

    Are the models indicating that the storm goes through a transition once it goes to northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri? What is causing to models to have heavier snow southwest and then northeast?

    Is that even logical output? Talk about not being in the right spot if this storm takes a good track and we only get a couple inches of snow.

    I know that elevation plays a part, but. Look how warm it is today from Lubbock to midland/Odessa. Yet they are going to get 6 to 12 inches of snow.

    It’s too bad if this doesn’t produce for us when cold temps follow. Even though it’s a nuisance we might as well have a blanket of snow if it’s going to get cold.

  42. Austin Braddock December 25, 2015 at 5:09 pm - Reply

    Hey guys I need help. I’m traveling from Western Kansas to Lawrence ks. Can’t decide to leave on Sunday or Saturday. Any suggestions,?

    • Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      Austin, don’t know where in western Kansas you are, but assume you will be coming in on I-70? Rain starts moving in around 3-4 in the afternoon along a line from east of Dodge northeastwards towards Levenworth, and overy inot Missouri. Ice moves into this zone in Kansas near Manhattan/Salina over towards Topeka between 6-9.

  43. Austin Braddock December 25, 2015 at 5:10 pm - Reply

    Also my phone number if you have any suggestions for me is 7859791295

    • stl78 December 25, 2015 at 5:14 pm - Reply

      Your brave austin!

      • Waldo Weather December 25, 2015 at 5:19 pm - Reply

        Very. Thankfully this is a paid blog. Ha

    • HEAT MISER December 25, 2015 at 5:20 pm - Reply

      Seems like it might be a safer bet to travel Saturday if you are coming from Western KS.

  44. rickmckc December 25, 2015 at 6:28 pm - Reply

    Hey Tim … appreciate the maps. Just a heads up on the Euro model pics from Weatherbell:

    “Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential).”

    Just don’t want you (or this blog) to get in trouble.

    Let’s go snow!

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 6:43 pm - Reply

      Thanks rick! Interesting. Pretty sure the euro snow maps fall into that category unfortunately

  45. Thomas2 December 25, 2015 at 6:41 pm - Reply

    We’re coming to KC from Chicago early Monday. What’s the best route? Iowa to I35 or down Il to StL?

    • Joe December 25, 2015 at 9:40 pm - Reply

      Through Iowa, much more relaxed and scenic drive. Going through St. Louis is stressful and traffic is normally bad

  46. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 7:00 pm - Reply

    So what’s the latest on the Monday snowstorm? Poof?

  47. Alice December 25, 2015 at 7:23 pm - Reply

    Yes, seem to be going poof…
    JD put out new blog….kshb….

    And he says this on facebook…
    “Newest information suggesting the bigger snow threat for Sunday/Monday is going to go to the West of KC. But some very heavy rain possible in Missouri. Still, a lot may change with this storm system.”

    The map he showed on facebook suggests the rain will mostly be just east of KS/Mo state lines.

    So, for KC metro it looks like “poof” for snow and any heavy rain.

    • Gary December 25, 2015 at 7:47 pm - Reply

      Alice,

      It isn’t going poof because we haven’t even made a forecast for snow. This storm is going to hit KC with another big precipitation event. The storm will impact KC, but how is the question. Let’s see where it tracks, and yes the snow part of the forecast is very challenging, but also the rain part. How much rain will fall? Try to make that forecast. It can be anywhere from 0.30″ to over 4″, which would be like forecasting “hey bloggers, we could get 3 inches to 40 inches of snow”. Can you imagine us predicting that kind of range. New data comes out soon.

      I am in Vegas! I was greeted by a cool Cumulonimbus cloud. I will post it tomorrow.

      Gary

      • Alice December 25, 2015 at 8:03 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        Out of all the comments on here today, you come to correct me ???
        I was only replying to Pete (above) who asked if the “snowstorm” had gone poof.
        And for whatever reason, do you think I am out of line for quoting JD ?
        I was only bringing it to the attentions of the bloggers to go see what JD said on the kshb blog. Bringing it to attention because of no updates here yet, and to those who don’t have access to the models….
        I know how difficult your jobs are when it comes to these situations. No, I NEVER said it was easy, and I certainly was not trying to second-guess your forecast.
        I thought I was doing a favor by commenting on JDs blog. Sorry about the poof part of it !

        Good grief.

        • Dobber December 25, 2015 at 8:21 pm - Reply

          Good grief is right Alice….. Please calm down.

        • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 8:30 pm - Reply

          Um, Alice…you way over reacted to Gary. He didn’t say anything mean or out of line…just that they haven’t forecast anything yet with regard to that storm hitting us. Holy Moly!!!!

        • Jrfan830 December 25, 2015 at 8:33 pm - Reply

          I don’t think Gary was intentionally aiming his whole response towards you. He was just stating that he has not issued a forecast for any snow amounts, so it’s hard for it to go *poof* if it wasn’t really forecast to happen.

          • Gary December 25, 2015 at 8:35 pm - Reply

            Exactly!

            New data is coming in! It is getting even more fascinating!

            Let’s see what it looks like tomorrow.

            Gary

        • Gary December 25, 2015 at 8:40 pm - Reply

          Alice,

          Just look at what I wrote. I was just making a point about forecasting rain!!! That’s all.

          Gary

          • Alice December 25, 2015 at 8:52 pm - Reply

            !!! I did not say anything to make any of you unload on me. I was only asking Gary why I was being singled out…..he was. I apologized for using the word poof…..but apparently others can use that word.
            I refuse to get into a jabbing session here.

            Let’s get back to what we are all here for, ok ?

            Gary,
            I have always wondered, what is the difference between the Powercast and NAM, GFS, etc. Is Powercast a model ? (I think you refer to it as in-house model). Does it use the same type of guidances ?

        • Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 8:44 pm - Reply

          Alice, if people are comments on here, how do they not have access to the models?

  48. Baseball Mike December 25, 2015 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    Good evening-just a quick note NWS in Topeka through their forecast discussion will be at least issuing a winter storm watch down the road for our area-Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 8:27 pm - Reply

      Hopefully that includes Lawrence

      • Dale December 25, 2015 at 9:36 pm - Reply

        Lmfao. RAINSTORM

        GO RAIN

  49. f00dl3 December 25, 2015 at 7:54 pm - Reply

    Why is it that the people who produce the Euro are such stifflers about their product while the everyone else is pretty open with the modeling data. Seems kind of a thorn in the back to people wishing to educate themselves.

  50. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 8:26 pm - Reply

    Gary id like to see a photo of that Vegas Cloud….?

  51. Tim December 25, 2015 at 8:43 pm - Reply

    0Z NAM even further west and north on the track of the low. If the 0Z GFS trends the same, I must admit wont be looking good for the KC in regards to any wintry precip.

  52. Tim December 25, 2015 at 8:46 pm - Reply

    00Z NAM Snow Map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accsnow&rh=2015122600&fh=78&r=c&dpdt=”

    00Z NAM FRZ Rain Map:
    “http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accfrzr&rh=2015122600&fh=78&r=c&dpdt=”

  53. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    Time to throw in the towel on this one I’m afraid. All guidance is way NW.

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 9:07 pm - Reply

      Morgan, unfortunately I’m beginning to feel the same. Obviously the storm is going to do.. what the storm is going to do regardless what the models say– but if the 00z GFS lines up with the 00z NAM and the 00Z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, nothing left to make me think otherwise.

      • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 10:32 pm - Reply

        LoL…why on earth would you through in the towel more than two days out? The models change constantly, and all the pros have no interest at all in committing to a forecast on this thing. Give another 24 hrs.

  54. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 9:10 pm - Reply

    37 and rain Monday sounds miserable.

  55. Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 9:25 pm - Reply

    Glad you made it to Vegas safely. Thanks for checking in. Time to go have some fun?. We are like kids in the toy store or candy shop. We have our eyes on the one that seems to be out of reach. Sort of like the roll of the dice, which is craps out in Vegas Land I think. We will just have to wait and see what is gift wrapped in the package. Maybe we get a good roll and it’s not the lump of coal…lol!

  56. Jeff Wichitaks December 25, 2015 at 9:31 pm - Reply

    They just upgrade a Winter Storm watch to a blizzard watch for SW Ks now. http://www.weather.gov/ddc/. Here in Wichita you got one station saying mixed to snow and 4 inches, got another saying 6-8, and yet the last one saying 4-6 maybe more. lmao. All i know is its going to snow. I guess I just have to wake up on Tuesday morning and see what we got. They are talking tho about the high winds with the storm and blizzard conditions. I am hoping you all up North end up getting snow as well. ( seems every time new models are coming out they keep increasing the snow totals for us down here)

  57. Tim December 25, 2015 at 9:52 pm - Reply

    00Z GFS surprisingly keeps KC in band of 4-6 of snow…

  58. Mike December 25, 2015 at 10:01 pm - Reply

    It is way to early for anyone to give up on snow for this storm!!!

    • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 10:32 pm - Reply

      Bingo!

  59. MikeL December 25, 2015 at 10:01 pm - Reply

    GFS and NAM both coming in pretty lame. Seems everything is lining up to the NW as has been the case all season. No reason this storm will be any different. KC area probably has a better shot at a flash flood watch than a WSW. I’m ready to throw in the towel as well. Even here in Topeka I would expect mainly rain when it is all said and done.

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:07 pm - Reply

      00Z GFS shows estimated 8.9″ of snow in KC.

  60. Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:06 pm - Reply

    00Z GFS also has KC in ice/sleet/snow mix from Noon Sunday through Mon 6am when transitions to all snow. Quite interesting.

  61. Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:08 pm - Reply

    Left out canadian model from earlier today with 7″ in KC … http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=acc10snow&rh=2015122512&fh=90&r=c&dpdt=

  62. Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:16 pm - Reply

    Just starting to show up on 00Z Hi-res NAM… Not sure if I believe the results– would be nice though 8-10″+ http://i65.tinypic.com/2z3uqld.jpg May need to hit zoom

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:25 pm - Reply

      Gotta be an error because none of the other model websites are showing that.

  63. Jeff Wichitaks December 25, 2015 at 10:44 pm - Reply

    All the local stations down here in Wichita tonight said that KC would end up with anywhere from 1 to 4 inches depending on the channel. Even JD Rudds old stomping grounds saying it also. lol hey are calling for anywhere between 2 and 8 inches down here depending on who you what. one station is 6-8 another is 4-6 and JD Rudds old station is 2-6 That is the only station that never gives a detailed snow amount. hell I can go on tv and say snow anywhere between 1 and 10 inches. Not sure why they seem to do that then after the snow they say we got it right. well hell with a forcast like that how can you not miss. My gut feeling is the models will back away from the nw moment and it will go back to the storm going threw SW MO. Also on a side note I never seen so many people give up and complain before the storm even get here. It is still 36 hours away. and the way the models seem to change from run to run with this storm I do not think we will really know until 24 hours out.

  64. Jeff Wichitaks December 25, 2015 at 10:47 pm - Reply

    Sorry for the typos

    • Tim December 25, 2015 at 10:55 pm - Reply

      Jeff, agreed– although I’m not convinced its going to be a significant event at this point– just a 50-100 miles shift in either direction is the difference between just rain and an all out blizzard

  65. Jeff Wichitaks December 25, 2015 at 11:05 pm - Reply

    Funny you should say that as thats what they are saying down here. If it shifts we could get alot more snow. And as the model trends seem to be changing they said to check back as the snow totals would most likely change. Hinting they may be on low end of snow totals. I guess we just have to wait. I am pretty sure by late tomorrow they have there answer on were its going to go, and snow totals I believe you all will get your first snow, but do not think your going to get more then 4 inches tops. But then who the hell am I to say.:)

    • Heat Miser December 25, 2015 at 11:18 pm - Reply

      I think it could be a lot more or a lot less than four inches. We don’t have the technology to know that this far out. It’s all just pure speculation.

      • Bob December 25, 2015 at 11:32 pm - Reply

        Time for the Euro to break the tie.

  66. Jeff Wichitaks December 26, 2015 at 12:00 am - Reply

    Heat miser im sorry is an smart azz im about to stop coming here. They need to kick him or suspend him for a few. Really getting tired of the smart mouth. Seems every day it is something from him. Gary please please do something. I see i am not the only one whos tired of it.

  67. Tim December 26, 2015 at 12:14 am - Reply

    00Z Euro… KC Above freezing through Mon AM. Temps shoot up to low 40’s Mon Afternoon. Low comes up between KC and Columbia. While it shows a trace of snow its obvious this run is an almost all rain event. It almost exactly the same as the 12Z. So at this point we are still seeing modeling disagreements. Anything is still on the table for this event (or non-event).

  68. Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 12:17 am - Reply

    Merry Christmas everyone and glad you are safely in Vegas Gary!!!!!!

    Again…the difference in strength and track between the 0z GFS and NAM is something else. The NAM is literally taking the surface low right over Lawrence….the GFS over Columbia…the NAM has the upper low wrapped up at 534…the GFS a much weaker circulation and barely at 540….these are huge differences. The GFS has “corrected” itself but it is really sticking to the more NE/flatter track in that it goes Sprinfield to Saint Louis…the NAM is going Wichita….Truman Lake….Columbia.

    In my very humble opinion, I think it is still too early to tell where the largest winter component will set up for Sunday night/Monday. I think that SW Kansas and Central Oklahoma are the really only givens right now as the first jump NE from Texas seems pretty set and obviously the warning and watched show this. I do really think that Topeka to KC is still in the conversation.

    Also…look at all the snow falling in Nebraska tonight and there are teens and single digits in Pan Handle of Nebraska. The cold air is already on the move and the winds are form the north there as well….will be interesting to follow this cold air tomorrow and see exactly how that component sets up…..

    It is really ironic…for such a warm winter we are currently following a storm with the potential to blow any event from last year out of the water!!!! One could even argue we have already had an event that was bigger than any last year in that at least warranted a warning!!!!

    Have a great night everyone!!! Enjoy Vegas Gary!!!!

    • Tim December 26, 2015 at 12:30 am - Reply

      Bill, great write up! EURO is kinda in the middle– just strange we may not actually even know with confidence what is going to happen until late tomorrow night or even early Sunday.

      • Bill in Lawrence December 26, 2015 at 12:44 am - Reply

        Tim:

        Thanks so very much!!!!!

        I totally agree….the GFS is kind of on an island and has really kind of been an outlier the past 4-5 days; The NAM and Euro are close enough to each other that you have to favor that solution. Yet….even while the GFS corrected itself somewhat from yesterday it is still taking a further east and flatter track than the others by quite a ways…and it has been consistent with this Idea for several runs….makes you wonder if it has not picked up on something…..3 days of bad data seems a bit unlikely…

        Like you said….still not enough consitent data to make a real call….man to be a met right now trying to tell people how their travel will be impacted….no thank you!!!!! I feel for all of them!!!!!

        Looking at tomorrow’s data….with the models just being one piece….will be interesting!!!!

        Have a great night!!

        Bill in Lawrence

  69. Morgan December 26, 2015 at 12:33 am - Reply

    WAA always wins here. This has that classic warm air wins look to it. Don’t really think snowpack to the north means anything in terms of our temps. We’ve seen this set up so many times before. Most all guidance is NW too. My call is for an inch or two at most of sloppy seconds. EURO shows absolutely nothing.

  70. Tim December 26, 2015 at 2:40 am - Reply

    6Z NAM still the same as the other NAM runs. So its the NAM and Euro (track more to the West and Northern track resulting in Cold rain) VS. GFS and Canadian Model (track more to the east and further south resulting in possible ice and significant snow accumulation). Good Night All!

  71. Tim December 26, 2015 at 2:43 am - Reply

    6Z NAM still the same as the other NAM runs. So it’s the NAM and Euro [track more to the West and Northern track resulting in Cold rain] VS. GFS and Canadian Model [track more to the east and further south resulting in possible ice and significant snow accumulation]. Sorry for any duplication as I received the dreaded awaiting moderation. Good Night All.

  72. Waldo Weather December 26, 2015 at 6:53 am - Reply

    Any Christmas luck?. New maps?

  73. David December 26, 2015 at 7:19 am - Reply

    Nam still taking low further west and keeping temps too warm with mainly a rain event. Maybe a tiny amount of snow on the back end. Huge ice storm between Wichita and Topeka. GFS continues the more favorable event with the low east in Missouri giving kc cooler temps and much more snow. 9 inches total. The nws offices are obviously favoring the NAM due to the forecast for rain in kc and the Topeka office leaving lawrence out of the winter storm watch at the moment. Wichita office also shows heavy snow west and a mix and snow over Wichita. Unfortunately, with how the pattern has been and the snow to our west with the last events, I’m thinking the NAM is right, but hopeful the GFS will end up correct–not expecting it. At least we’re getting some precipitation and not just boring weather

    • Heat Miser December 26, 2015 at 7:51 am - Reply

      LoL…I haven’t seen one forecaster predicting all rain for KC. It seems to be either snow or a mix.

      • Alice December 26, 2015 at 8:39 am - Reply

        Heat….
        This morning one forecaster said rain on Monday, and a lot of it.

        Perhaps the snowflake contest will continue…..?

        And kshb 7 day shows highs only in the 20’s Tues, Wed, Thurs. Yikes !

      • CRW December 26, 2015 at 8:47 am - Reply

        According to the kc nws, there is a 30% chance of snow Monday night.

  74. Tim December 26, 2015 at 7:38 am - Reply

    We’ll see what the 12z models show. NAM and euro versus GFS and Canadian models

    • Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 7:47 am - Reply

      Morning Tim. Looks like everyone slept in today. My cat woke me up at
      0600, arrrrgh!

      Tis a battle of the models. Will be interesting to see what pops out of NAM 4k with each run. I feel bad for folks in Kansas down through Oklahoma since it’s looking like a major ice storm topped off with snow, followed by cold temps.

      Wonder where Jeff Penner is. I thought Gary said he might be doing the blog today. Maybe after the morning show since he’s handling the weather today and tomorrow morning. FYI, JD posted a good skew-T chart last night on KSHB blog in case folks want to check that out.

  75. McCabe58 December 26, 2015 at 8:08 am - Reply

    It’s been a while since I’ve been on the blog, but I finally gave in and paid for this one. Honestly, not mad about it at all because it seems as if a lot of the bs from the kshb blog left once we had to start paying. We all really do appreciate the maps y’all post and obviously thank you Gary for the job you do even when in Vegas! Please keep the updates coming because I have family in Oklahoma that are leaving to come up here to avoid the ice storm.

  76. Dale December 26, 2015 at 8:25 am - Reply

    We are going to get a heavy rain. Bring your umbrellas on Monday….it’s a doozy of a storm especially West of us.

    Classic WAA rain!!!

  77. Rockdoc December 26, 2015 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Glad we are not in Lubbock, Texas area. NWS has blizzard warning up withdrifts possible from “5-10 feet”. Yikes! Hope all the ranchers in the area can bring their cattle in. Gosh forbid we should ever get hit with a monster like this. It would take 1 week at least to get dug out.

  78. Bob December 26, 2015 at 8:27 am - Reply

    The 12z nam and GFS are important today. I fear no snow and a cold rain is on its way

    • CRW December 26, 2015 at 8:30 am - Reply

      A very cold rain indeed. Probably no snow.

  79. Dale December 26, 2015 at 8:43 am - Reply

    Rain? But all the local mets said rain?! You can’t trust the models yet. Lol

    I’ve said it from the beginning, rain due to a NW shift.

    Go R-A-I-N

  80. Alice December 26, 2015 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Gary on facebook a few min ago……(he posted a pic of that cloud in Vegas)
    And he said
    “The big storm is developing. Monday is the day we may see some snow, but the track appears to be taking most of it to our north and west. We are monitoring it closely on 41 Action News – KSHB-TV.”

  81. Ross December 26, 2015 at 9:04 am - Reply

    New blog

  82. Alice December 26, 2015 at 9:05 am - Reply

    New blog is up….Jeff

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