Christmas Eve Weather Pattern Thoughts

/Christmas Eve Weather Pattern Thoughts

Christmas Eve Weather Pattern Thoughts

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A major storm system is beginning to form today. The first huge batch of energy coming in to begin producing this storm is just now crossing the west coast of North America. The storm we have been discussing for days already does not even exist at the moment.

1

I can’t stress this more. It is incredible that we have the computer model technology to even come close to predicting these storm systems before they develop. Meteorology has advanced so much in 50 years, just think about what will happen in the next 50 years. One of our Weather2020 meteorologists, Eswar Iyer, is a Masters student at the University of Oklahoma. He has a great grasp of the LRC and our breakthrough technology and he knows we are just scratching the surface at the potential computing power of an LRC model some day. We have some great things in the works. Eswar is working on some short range severe weather modeling currently and is doing a great job.  As we learn more about the next 24 to 72 hours in modeling where tornado producing storm systems may form, we are also learning a lot more about the longer range. One thing we can do with our knowledge of the LRC is to know when the models have a good chance of being right or not being right at all, if that makes sense. If there is a “fantasy storm” showing up 15 days from now, our team knows if it fits the pattern or not.  With that said, storm fits the pattern well.

2This next map, once again, shows the energy that is about to form into the big upper low. This map shows the noon forecast for the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere.  The lead storm system, a lead strong wave is forecast to move out across the southern Rocky Mountain states by noon Friday.  This will likely produce heavy snow at most of the Colorado and Utah ski resorts.  As it moves out into the plains it will drag a strong and impacting cold front south and east. This cold air mass is a big factor in what we are about to experience with this storm system Sunday into Tuesday.

The questions that pop into my mind: How strong will the cold air push be, and how low will the temperatures get Sunday into Monday morning ahead of the main storm system? And, where will that big upper low track?

I will finish the discussion of the big storm in just a minute and answer these questions, but first let’s take a break and look at the Arctic Oscillation.

AO Dec 23

The AO is really showing the conditions at the moment. As we have been discussing in this blog, and as you can see above, the AO has peaked way high into the positive at over plus 4.  There is usually a “lag coefficient”, a delay of a few days at how such a high index will affect the weather pattern. This storm is caught in that strongly positive AO which has been a factor with the modeling of this next storm by the GFS, European, Canadian models and others. Here is an excerpt from the winter forecast:

Screen Shot 2015-12-24 at 7.43.05 AM

This season has already been dominated by a positive AO and NAO.  Will this continue all season? Well, just look at the AO index. It is diving towards neutral right now. It is something to monitor as we move through LRC Cycle 2 into LRC Cycle 3 later in January. For now, we have a series of storm systems, and the latest big one is forming right now.

4

By Saturday afternoon all of that energy will have dropped south and formed into a big upper low that may drop into Mexico before turning and moving northeast into the plains states and across Missouri River Valley. Take a look at the surface valid Saturday afternoon:

3

The cold surge will be in progress Saturday. A deep surface low is forecast to develop way down in Mexico. This is a rather unique set-up and the models continue to have many solutions.

What do I think will happen? I am on my way to do my Christmas Eve workout, and then I will write down the time-line and impacts from this storm by noon today, so check back in.

Kansas City Weather Forecast & Impact Time-Line:

  • Now through Christmas Day: Dry with periods of clouds
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a chance of rain. A thunderstorm is a possibility as well. Temperatures rising to near 50, possibly into the lower 50s before the cold front moves through.
  • Saturday night:  A chance of rain. Temperatures dropping to near 32 degrees, or possibly a bit lower by Sunday morning. Some thin icing is possible if the rain lasts long enough.
  • Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine possible. It will dry out by tailgating. Bundle up and wear layers as the wind chill factor will be in the teens. North winds will blow at 15-25 mph. The high will be near 34°
  • Sunday Night- Monday: Becoming cloudy again with a 100% chance of freezing rain, rain, or snow. It’s still too early to tell which type of precipitation it will be, however the latest trend is for some snow to fall with the KSHB snowflake contest most likely coming to an end by Monday night.

The GFS and Canadian models have come out with some snow in Kansas City. We will learn more in the next few days! Remember, this is a storm that hasn’t formed yet. It does not even exist. Think about that!

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience blog. Merry Christmas Eve! Have a safe holiday. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

2017-01-16T07:08:00+00:00 December 24th, 2015|General|103 Comments

103 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel December 24, 2015 at 8:38 am - Reply

    Gary,
    Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones. I recorded .15 rain this morning up here in Maryville. So two day total of .45. I am guessing by the AO if it stays that positive warm temps will win out and cut into snow totals? Correct? Have a safe and Blessed weekend,
    Michael

  2. Waldo Weather December 24, 2015 at 8:41 am - Reply

    Fingers crossed!!!!!

  3. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 8:59 am - Reply

    EURO takes the low right over KC while GFS takes it to SE MO. Big difference in track although the GFS is not nearly as robust.

    • stl78 December 24, 2015 at 9:20 am - Reply

      Morgan, if u dont mind, can u give me an idea of how it cost to look at the Euro. Thx!

    • stl78 December 24, 2015 at 9:21 am - Reply

      Thats how much…..I hate typing on my phone!

  4. Rodney December 24, 2015 at 9:02 am - Reply

    Gary: I’m seeing signs that the storm Monday is trending more southward. What are you thoughts on this GGEM solution showing heavier snow over central MO. Is this just a fantasy or still possible? I’m assuming for Columbia area to get accumulating snow the low would have to make the turn to the NE further east & come up through the MO bootheel into southern IL. No matter the surface low track I’m still concerned with the lack of cold air & current thinking is the Columbia & Jeff City areas may see mostly rain through the event.

  5. Alice December 24, 2015 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Where is Terry ? Hope he is ok. This potential snow event must be exciting for him.

    On another note, sad to see that Amy Hawley has left KSHB after 15 yrs. Last night was her last.

    Good luck in Vegas Gary ! Have fun. You will be gone all of next week. So, we will see you back on the air next year ! (I listened to you on The Border Patrol this morning, as you were tracking Santa. Amazing the technology available for storms and Santa ! Ho ho ho

    Everyone have a wonderful holiday !

    • Gary December 24, 2015 at 10:20 am - Reply

      Happy Holidays Alice! I am off through January 4th! A really nice vacation. Of course, I will be blogging every day here!! Although I may try to get a guest blogger from our team one or two days. And, yes, Amy Hawley was a favorite of mine. I will miss her!

      Gary

  6. Bill in Lawrence December 24, 2015 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good Morning to you sir!!! We were really pretty close to seeing our first flakes this morning…if that low could have dug just about 200 miles south…..maybe that should be telling me something!!!! 🙂

    Looking at the 12Z NAM it is has some pretty big differences than the 0Z run. It does appear that the front will be able to make down into northern Arkansas but the freeze line is going to be pretty much meandering back and forth across Kansas City. There is a very stiff NE wind in place but there are for sure hints on this run of warmer air beginning to work its way back in here as the freeze line by hour 81 jumps back north of KC… Also, different from the 0Z GFS is that this NAM run has that ridge east of Florida much stronger and further west and the surface high to the north begins retreating east by hour 81. Extrapolating from this, I would guess that the NAM is locking onto a track more in line with the EURO….i.e. a more north west track than what the GFS showed. I would also suggest that we will see quite the correction on the 12Z GFS run with a more NW track much closer to KC. if not on the 12Z then for sure on the 0Z tonight.

    Still, this model (only going out 84 hours) does still show a strong winter component to this storm in western and central Oklahoma into SW Kansas But I do wonder about the snow on the models; is this cold air really going to be deep enough to support snow? I think there will be a pretty decent size transition area with this storm and do wonder about our area; if we even do get into the winter component will it be cold enough for snow.

    This is going to be some storm to watch evolve!!! 🙂

    Have a great Christmas Eve and Christmas everyone…at least tomorrow morning will feel like Christmas with lows in the mid to upper 20’s….there may not be snow, bt we have enough frost to look like snow!!!! 🙂

    Bill in Lawrence

  7. Mr. Pete December 24, 2015 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Will it be raining during the Chiefs game? I can’t tell.

  8. stl78 December 24, 2015 at 9:29 am - Reply

    12z gfs rolling out now. I think this will be an important run

  9. LS MIKE December 24, 2015 at 9:30 am - Reply

    NWS saying no snow and all rain event!! BOOOOOOOO

    • HEAT MISER December 24, 2015 at 10:12 am - Reply

      No it doesn’t.

      WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
      THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS
      STILL UNCERTAIN…MAKING THE LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITATION TYPES
      DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…A VARIETY OF WINTER
      WEATHER TYPES ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT HOLIDAY
      TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION IN
      LATER FORECASTS.

      • LS Mike December 24, 2015 at 4:09 pm - Reply

        YEA IT DOES …….The primary changes to this system have been: 1) a more southern
        focus to the heavy precipitation this weekend, 2) less cold air
        wrapping in behind the system early next week, and 3) better
        temporal agreement between the GFS and EC in bringing the surface
        low through the CWA on Monday night into early Tuesday. As a result,
        total precipitation amounts have been lowered, and the highest PoPs
        along and north of I-70 have been delayed to Monday. Was not very
        surprised to see the models trend warmer without a good connection
        to the cold air across the far northern U.S., and have kept precip
        mainly mixed with rain except at the tail end of the TROWAL on
        Tuesday. The way things are looking right now, snow accums would be
        minimal to non-existent throughout the forecast area, and would only
        occur Tuesday behind the surface low. Currently, the biggest fly in
        this system`s ointment is the potential for a period of freezing
        rain ahead of the surface low as moisture and warm air aloft begins
        to overrun cooler low-level air Sunday night into Monday morning. Am
        still not convinced that temperatures will dip as far as model
        blends are indicating, or by the juxtaposition of precipitation over
        sub-freezing temperatures, and am therefore not sold on the
        potential for freezing rain at this time — but it will be something
        to keep an eye on as model solutions continue to converge.

  10. Alice December 24, 2015 at 9:56 am - Reply

    On The Border Patrol (810 AM sports radio ) this morning Gary said we will get into the 50’s on Saturday, then cold front comes in between 1-3 pm, and only 20’s-30’s and should be dry Sunday for the Chief’s game. Then potential for rain/freezing rain or “some” snow late Sun night/Monday.

  11. f00dl3 December 24, 2015 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Funny how a day changes things. Yesterday models were slamming us, now they are showing it missing us to the south. My feeling is since we have been warm all winter I don’t think the Arctic air is strong enough this year to push the precip south of the metro much. Thus, I think we will be in the heavier precipitation. I think we will hover near 32 F and it will be much like the Thanksgiving storm, probably just a Freezing Rain advisory will due for KC proper.

  12. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 10:10 am - Reply

    GFS is weak sauce but cold enough for snow. Storm has trended way weak in the last couple of runs.

  13. Dale December 24, 2015 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Uh oh again. Any further shift South and nothing at all. Very isolated areas of “heavy” snow. Once this beast is onshore the models will handle it better. I think it go slightly North and follow the Euro.
    Go rain!!!

  14. CRW December 24, 2015 at 10:19 am - Reply

    What is the latest gfs run saying?

  15. MikeL December 24, 2015 at 10:19 am - Reply

    The GFS sure changes it’s mind a lot about the upcoming storm…lol.

  16. Mike December 24, 2015 at 10:32 am - Reply

    Happy Christmas Eve to all,

    I really enjoy reading everyones comments. I look forward to logging into weather2020.com daily to see what everyone is saying. Needless to say most people just enjoy the fascination of weather extremes and tracking of storms. With that being said I think it is very obviously it is way to early to make an accurate forecast of how much snow we will get or not get. Be patient! Monday afternoon we can either be happy or sad depending upon the guidance that we receive that day. No sense in jumping to conclusions about the storm track or how much cold air will be available. Gary is the best in Kansas City by far and there is no way he will even post a snow map at this time when the data is going to change every 4-5 hours. I do believe in the LRC and the importance of the LRC to track waves that will allow an experienced Meteorologist like Gary and his team a more accurate scientific way to formulate long range forecast. So in nutshell take a deep breath and enjoy current cycle 2. Gary’s crystal ball will become a lot clearer very soon.

    Merry Christmas!
    Mike

    • Heat Miser December 24, 2015 at 11:05 am - Reply

      BINGO!!!!

  17. Bill in Lawrence December 24, 2015 at 10:43 am - Reply

    Man…the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS could not be farther apart; at 84 hours the NAM has a much stronger wrapped up system located just west of El Paso,Texas ready to eject due NE from there. The freezing line on the NAM at 84 is sitting between Topeka and KC indicative of more NW track from Texas. The GFS….flat and east to west from Oklahoma City with the arctic air suppressing the whole system. I really do believe that in the next 2 runs the GFS is going to have huge correction in the track unless it has picked up on something that the others have not. Like Foodl3 said above…will the cold air really be that strong…doubtful!!

    I am still betting on a track between Lawrence and Columbia, Missouri with the area from Oklahoma City NE ward seeing the brunt of the winter component of this storm. I think there is enough evidence in the LRC and the models to show that there will be a pretty decent if not strong winter component to this storm. Where it exactly sets up of course is the obvious question. Honestly….considering this winter so far and last winter….I am just happy to be in the conversation this late in the game!!!! 🙂

    Have a great day!!

    Bill in Lawrence

  18. Rockdoc December 24, 2015 at 10:49 am - Reply

    Last several runs have been consistent with ice/freezing rain from midnight Saturday through 12z Sunday morning. Surface temps and 925mb temps are about 25-30, while the 850mb temps are about 35. Thin slice of warmer air for precipitation that then falls back into cooler air. Current runs show the surface low being in east Texas on Sunday before it hooks and heads northeast. Same for UUL. Goes right over the Missouri bootheel. Alex is right, based on current model runs maybe a dusting to 4 inches in metro area. Joplin area could be sweet spot. Looking dry for Chiefs game too, or at most maybe occasional spits of rain/mix. Go Chiefs?

  19. Mr. Pete December 24, 2015 at 10:51 am - Reply

    Let’s all be honest. Monday will be cold, rainy and miserable. Sad.

    • HEAT MISER December 24, 2015 at 11:06 am - Reply

      Let’s be even more honest…nobody really has any idea yet….too soon.

      • Bob December 24, 2015 at 11:51 am - Reply

        You act like you know.

        • HEAT MISER December 24, 2015 at 12:53 pm - Reply

          Bob, fyi…”nobody really has any idea yet…too soon” doesn’t mean I act like I know…it means I don’t know. Mabye you read it wrong…here’s a little help with that. 😉

  20. shoedog December 24, 2015 at 11:15 am - Reply

    forget all the science and model runs, it will likely be a winter event of snow and ice for one reason, Gary is heading out of town. That appears to be the best indicator of winter storms.

  21. f00dl3 December 24, 2015 at 11:32 am - Reply

    Didn’t they put like a bunch of winter weather warnings out on this storm the last time through and it ended up being a lot weaker and warmer up in the Omaha area?

    Per Omaha’s CF6 data on Nov. 11th they had 0.76″ of liquid precip with a trace of snow, with fog, thunder and sleet.

    My guess is that’s probably what will happen here.

  22. Kurt December 24, 2015 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Up north we keep getting missed to the north and south. If models are correct, St Joseph won’t see accumulating snow this next storm either. The models are really cutting back on total precipitation as well, down to half an inch from the storm instead on 1 to 2 inches ?

    • Gary December 24, 2015 at 12:36 pm - Reply

      Hey everyone,

      Ready for this? The new Euro has 6 to 12 inches by midnight Monday night.

      Hang on, we have three solid days to track this!

      Gary

      • HEAT MISER December 24, 2015 at 12:54 pm - Reply

        Fingers crossed.

  23. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    EURO took a big jump SE this run. The map I saw only showed 2-3″ of snow despite freezing line staying south of the area for the most part. Could be a big ice storm somewhere.

  24. MMike December 24, 2015 at 1:32 pm - Reply

    Omaha area caught a sneaky intense snow storm this morning. Reports of up to 8 inches in some areas. This was not predicted by the models as of late yesterday. It showed the disturbance and the potential of snow, but not 8 inches. This snow fell on top of the 1-2 inches of rain that fell yesterday. They had 2 intense storms in 24 hours….

    Lucky them. Maybe our turn is coming soon.

  25. Jack December 24, 2015 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    18z GFS rolling out.. lets see if it aligns with the latest Euro.. Gary, any gut feeling yet? I have zero.

  26. Tim December 24, 2015 at 3:44 pm - Reply

    NWS didn’t seem very swayed by the EURO. Pretty much calling it all rain as of the forecast discussion a few minutes ago.

    • HEAT MISER December 24, 2015 at 3:59 pm - Reply

      This is what the NWS is saying about our area currently

      THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
      AREA ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN…SNOW…AND OR FREEZING
      RAIN. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE AS THAT TIME PERIODS
      APPROACHES. TIMING…TRACK…AMOUNTS…PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALL
      UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

      Translation…they have no idea.

  27. Jack December 24, 2015 at 3:47 pm - Reply

    Who all remembers the Christmas Eve blizzard about 6 years ago? That was a fun storm to watch. I vividly remember at the end of the storm, basically a line of very heavy snow moved through and Gary compared it to a line of thunderstorms coming through. I think we got around a foot from the storm. That was one for the books.

  28. Tim December 24, 2015 at 3:59 pm - Reply

    18z GFS looks almost the same as before but a bit more meager.. about 1-2″ of snow Monday late afternoon/evening.

  29. Jack December 24, 2015 at 4:09 pm - Reply

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151224+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    This is from the latest GFS.. is this track too far south? If so, it is still not producing much snow anywhere south of us? Is it weakening? Thoughts?

  30. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    GFS is weak and flat. Bombs out way down in Texas.

    • Austin December 24, 2015 at 4:43 pm - Reply

      Again to remind you that this system has not even developed yet.

  31. gail December 24, 2015 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    Turmoil

  32. Dale December 24, 2015 at 4:45 pm - Reply

    NWS KC is unimpressed.

    Gooooo Rain!!!!

    • CRW December 24, 2015 at 5:23 pm - Reply

      Very unimpressed. We may not even get much rain. Oh well
      ..

      • Heat Miser December 24, 2015 at 6:18 pm - Reply

        LoL…you guys crack me up. The models keeps changing run after run…first snow, then no snow, then snow, then no snow. And each time it’s, “WOO HOO, mabye snow after all!!!!”, then “It’s going to miss us, oh well”. Are you serious? Here’s a tip…wait until it’s a couple of days out, then mabye the models will start becoming consistent one way or the other.

        • Bob December 24, 2015 at 7:38 pm - Reply

          You are so smart.

        • CRW December 24, 2015 at 8:20 pm - Reply

          Heat, the models are becoming more consistent as we get closer. The low is tracking further to the south and the chances of snow are decreasing accordingly. The NWS is just not sold on this pseudo-storm at this point.

  33. Shoedog December 24, 2015 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    To keep everyone’s hope up, my sister called from Cedar Falls Iowa. They were supposed to come down tonight, a 2-5 inch snow burst has spun up from that wasn’t in the forecast. I-35 shut down between Ames and Des Moines. Maybe we can get something to come together despite models in the next few days.

    Merry Christmas to all of you!

    • CRW December 24, 2015 at 5:46 pm - Reply

      If this storm goes as far south as the models indicate, we may need to reevaluate the cycle going forward.

      • Rockdoc December 24, 2015 at 6:38 pm - Reply

        Totally agree. On the otherhand, perhaps Santa gave us a very nice present. No significant ice, and no rain for the Chiefs game:)

    • Alex Pickman December 24, 2015 at 8:08 pm - Reply

      Snow up there was in the forecast lol. I have family up there. Snow has been forecast for a few days now

  34. Baseball Mike December 24, 2015 at 5:07 pm - Reply

    Good evening Gary-I am observing what our mets are saying about the weekend-one is using the term winter storm and accumulating snow-our NWS on their updated situation report is using accumulating snow but our other meteorologist hasn’t fully committed as of yet. Just some observations here sixty miles to the west. Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  35. MikeL December 24, 2015 at 9:08 pm - Reply

    The 00z NAM wraps warm in and has mainly rain in the metro through Monday 6AM (84hrs).

  36. Alex Pickman December 24, 2015 at 9:58 pm - Reply

    GFS is really taking her south this run

    • CRW December 24, 2015 at 10:03 pm - Reply

      Not only south but a little east as well.

  37. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 10:05 pm - Reply

    Bad trends on models tonight. NAM is pretty warm and GFS is waaay south with hardly anything in the metro. Hope the EURO is better.

    • CRW December 24, 2015 at 10:20 pm - Reply

      The models seem to be getting worse, not better, further south, further east.

  38. Alex Pickman December 24, 2015 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    These blogs are fun to watch the amount of people who comment…

    Calm, boring weather – 5 to 10 comments

    Chance of rain – 10 to 15 comments

    Severe Thunderstorms setup – 15 to 30 comments

    Chance of snow – 30 to 50 comments

    Major snowstorm expected – 200+ comments & and a fried server!

    I love it! Lol

    • CRW December 24, 2015 at 10:30 pm - Reply

      I’ve been watching and reading for years. I think it’s more fun this year. I do think that the snow predictions for the year are waaaaayyyy off and I do not think that we are in the right spot at all, again, but this is entertaining just the same.

      • Kurt December 24, 2015 at 10:39 pm - Reply

        I think there is a storm track that favors the I-80 corridor and one that favors the I-44 corridor. When the storms track to the north and west we benefit from rain.

        I’ve lived through low snow winters many years and this doesn’t look promising at all for us this year.

        It may be to soon but even 10 inches of snow might be a challenge to eek out this year.

        At least I’m not enduring the rath of Terry when I write off winter, but meterogically were 1/3 done.

        Maybe something will shift in the next cycle, if not I think our spring will arrive early and get warm quick, end of February or first of March.

        • CRW December 24, 2015 at 10:51 pm - Reply

          Bingo. I agree with your storm track hypothesis and the early spring idea. Another month, and you can stick a fork into this winter.

  39. Dale December 24, 2015 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    Rain, rain, rain. Glorious rain!!

    Go RAIN!

    • Dobber December 24, 2015 at 11:13 pm - Reply

      It is glorious dale. Your enthusiasm is wonderful. Please keep it up. I hate drought mongers

  40. Rockdoc December 24, 2015 at 11:49 pm - Reply

    Merry Christmas ? Gary and fellow weather bloggers/geekheads. Sure has been a fun ride this week. We are like kids in the toy store, hoping that ? will reward all good girls and boys. We have stood at the counter, our eyes all a glaze, with sugar plume models dancing a blaze❄. Unfortunately it seems that glow of a low has slipped further south than we want to know?. Fear not my Dasher, Dancer and Prancer, nor Vixen, Comet, Cupid and Donner and Blitzen? Dash away, Dash away Dash away all. A tight little low shall spin up a blow! So Good Cheer ?to my fellow GFS geeks, the LRS norm will eventually produce our first winter storm❄❄❄❄

    Rockdoc

  41. Bill in Lawrence December 24, 2015 at 11:50 pm - Reply

    Happy Christmas Eve everyone!!!

    The differgence between the NAM and GFS is huge and really kind of shocking…..as of right now I really don’t trust either of them but think the NAM is going to be closer than the GFS…..I still think that the track will be somewhere between Lawrence and Columbia or maybe Lawrence and Herman….and yes I do really think that this area is still in the conversation for the winter component of this storm. Though south and west of us is most likely in the better spot. The GFS is due for a huge correction imho…

    Time will tell…we will know by Sunday!!!!! 🙂

    Have a Merry Christmas everyone!!! You all Rock!!!!! 🙂

    Bill in Lawrence

  42. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 12:01 am - Reply

    Are we at least going to get a decent soaking rain out of this deal? If it continues to stay in the 50s until spring I plan to keep running the mower / mulcher.

  43. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:18 am - Reply

    I am liking the Euro right now

  44. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:29 am - Reply

    Current ECMWF…

    KC – 3″ to 5″

    St. Joe, MO – 6″ to 10″

    Atchison, KS – 6″ to 10″

    Lawrence, KS – 3″ to 5″

    Cameron, MO – 4″ to 6″

    Chillicothe, MO – 1″ to 3″

    Extreme NWMO/SENE – 12″ to 16″

    • Jack December 25, 2015 at 12:33 am - Reply

      Where do you view the Euro?

    • Jack December 25, 2015 at 12:33 am - Reply

      Where do you view the Euro?

      • Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:40 am - Reply

        I use weatherbell.com, I think Gary uses eurowx.com or something similar. Either way, the ECMWF data is not free.

  45. Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:37 am - Reply

    EURO is still too warm down here though. Another fifty or so miles SE and we’re golden.

    • Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:45 am - Reply

      A 50 mile SE shift would be perfect for me. That would place me around a foot based off this data.

      • Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:48 am - Reply

        Looks like us people in KC would get around the same. Not sure where you live though.

  46. rickmckc December 25, 2015 at 12:46 am - Reply

    Eurowx.com has a 7-day free trial, then $10/mo. Seems like a good investment for a couple of winter months.

    00z run shows a completely different storm track from the GFS (and has for several runs). GFS goes south and east and does little for KC. Euro shows about 6 in KC increasing as you go north.

    Interesting that NAM up thru 84 hrs looks a lot more like the Euro than the GFS.

    Should be a fun ride no matter the outcome.

  47. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 12:48 am - Reply

    Has the Euro panned out for KC in recent years seems like more like the GFS?

    • Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:50 am - Reply

      EURO is definitely the most consistent model. Pretty darn accurate in the mid range.

    • Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:52 am - Reply

      It seems the Euro doesn’t always nail the precip amounts in the part of the country, but has done a pretty darn good job on the track of these storm systems. This next one is a tough forecast, however.

  48. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 12:49 am - Reply

    Another note*

    The GEM data looks impressive as well, just a bit too far southeast. More in like with the GFS in terms of track, but more than double the snow amounts. It’s getting interesting!

    • Morgan December 25, 2015 at 12:52 am - Reply

      It’s a lot more amped than the GFS as all the other models are too. I’m confident the GFS will become more amped by tomorrow’s 12z run. We’ll see though.

  49. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 1:01 am - Reply

    It’s definitely looking much colder on Monday now.

  50. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 3:58 am - Reply

    06z looks much better in regards to track and snowfall amounts. Nothing huge, but it’s coming more in line with the other models. Nice band of 3 to 6 inches

  51. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 4:09 am - Reply

    Potentially a little higher if you look at Kutchera’s output

  52. Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 4:21 am - Reply

    I should have let a few more hours upload lol. GFS has a nice little snowstorm. With 5 to 8 inches

    • stl78 December 25, 2015 at 5:32 am - Reply

      Yeah, me too..lol

  53. Kurt December 25, 2015 at 4:37 am - Reply

    The national weather service isn’t on board with any if the latest model data. They are indicating this system to be a non-event got the area.

    Time will tell, but what this storm does or doesn’t produce for northwest Missouri will probably be a telling sign of the rest of winter, or non-winter.

    On another note, why can’t we get a 6 hour surprise like Omaha and get a blanket of snow?

    • Gary December 25, 2015 at 4:53 am - Reply

      I read their discussion. They just don’t look at the intermediate runs of the models, the 6z and 18z, and they absolutely should. You can see trends on these other runs. The 06z GFS had a pretty good run that makes more sense than the 00z run. You can just throw away that 00z model. Today’s NAM will provide our first really good look at this storm.

      • Alex Pickman December 25, 2015 at 5:00 am - Reply

        With this pattern we are in, it would seem the low would favor a bit more northwest track than what the 00z was showing. It could possibly wind up too far northwest. Can’t wait to see what the NAM has to show later today

  54. Baseball Mike December 25, 2015 at 5:57 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary say down south they have issued a winter storm watch- are you waiting for the NAM to see how the storm goes? It seems as though our NWS backed off some but has not given up.

    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • Gary December 25, 2015 at 7:56 am - Reply

      They backed off because of the 00z GFS run that they should have completely thrown out. Let’s see what the models do this morning. I will write up the new blog soon. Merry Christmas. I am leaving for Vegas early this afternoon. Will I come back Sunday night because of the potential snowstorm, or will I stay out as planned for my 5 day trip to Vegas. My goodness, I can’t believe it, but I knew it would threaten as it was in our winter forecast. So, it’s my own fault for scheduling the trip on a likely stormy period.

      Gary

    • Baseball Mike December 25, 2015 at 7:56 am - Reply

      Just an updated observation-it was very frosty here despite the increase in clouds-our NWS is now hinting at accumulating snow again and the highs have been lowered here to the forties and not low fifties-sure was foggy here too not in forecast last night so some inclement weather is on its way

  55. Mr. Pete December 25, 2015 at 8:08 am - Reply

    If Gary is leaving town it’s gonna snow folks.

  56. Rockdoc December 25, 2015 at 8:58 am - Reply

    Good Christmas Morning Gary and the rest of the Weather 2020 gang. Wow, what a change from the 0z to the 6z run. The low has pulled back north and a wee bit west a little bit from around Shreevport to mid Oklahoma/Arkansas state line area at 6z. Kuchera snow ratio shows about 8 inches while regular snow accumulation at 6pm shows about 5 inches here in the metro. Snow looks to start between 6-9 in the morning! Still wonder if we might get some freezing drizzle or ice pellets beforehand. Haven’t looked at NAM yet, just got my first cup of ☕. Gary, hope you have a wonderful trip. Stay the entire time and enjoy yourself. I’m sure the station can keep some snow in the freezer for you?.

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