Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Our blog has grown by over 100 people on the past few weeks. Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.  If you are from New Jersey, Los Angeles, or Kansas City, just let us know if you have questions about your area.  The weather pattern is a fascinating one across North America. Let’s take a look.

Topping this morning’s weather news is a rare morning late December Tornado Watch, and even one 7 AM Tornado Warning:

Severe Weather December 23

There was a tornado warning at 7 AM just south of the Arkansas/Missouri border and a morning Tornado Watch.  Here is today’s severe weather risk:

day1otlk_1300

All types of severe weather are possible today in that moderate risk and enhanced slight risk area.  The surface map this morning at 7 AM shows this December storm system moving across the plains:

Surface December 23 7 AM

Look at this rare December 23rd set up. Warm and moist air is surging north as of 7 AM across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. A strong surface low was centered near Manhattan, KS.  Now, look closely as it is down to 4 degrees over western Nebraska. This is an important factor for the big developing weekend storm. There will be some cold air for it to work with.  As today’s storm moves east the conditions will become favorable for possible severe weather outbreak.

LRC Update: It was earlier this month when we identified the cycle length at close to 50 days, likely in the 46 to 53 day range. We always firm this up by the end of December.  What happened around 50 days ago today? Take a look at the blog entry made on November 5th, 48 days ago:

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.24.28 AM

It is not just a coincidence. We have all just experienced the beginning of this year’s pattern in LRC Cycle 1, and now LRC Cycle 2. Think about this part of the pattern in LRC Cycles 4 and 5, 100 and 150 days from now, or around April 1st and the last third of May. Storm Chasers write it down now and plan your storm chase trips!

Weekend Storm System Thoughts:

These maps below are generated by Eurowx.com. These show the European model output from last night’s model run. This first one shows the European model ice accumulation, and the second one shows the snowfall accumulation:

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.08.45 AM

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.44.57 AM

Now, one very important ingredient is rather obviously cold air. Take a look at this morning’s GFS surface forecast valid Saturday morning:

1

There is an Arctic Air Mass just sitting up their to be tapped. It is being held way up there, but some of this cold air will be drawn down into this big storm. How much of it will be drawn down? How cold will it be? And, where will the upper low track? These are questions that will be answered soon. The upper low is likely going to drop all the way into Mexico before being kicked out.

On the surface map above, you can see the inverted trough extending north from the developing surface low into central Kansas and Nebraska. This will be blasted away by the cold front on Saturday evening.

The latest data has the temperatures down into the 20s on Sunday as this storm approaches. So, it is increasingly likely that the precipitation will be in a wintry form for part of this storm.

Now, we will discuss this, but the latest GFS again has absolutely blasted us with a major winter storm with ice and snow. And, lot’s of it. Hang on bloggers. This is still a few days away, but the cold air is a major factor and it is showing up.

Have a great day. I will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight. And, if you are out of town you can always watch our weathercasts on www.kshb.com! We stream every newscast live. If you have any questions or comments we will discuss them in our comments section.

Gary