Series Of Spring-Like & Winter-Like Storm Systems

/Series Of Spring-Like & Winter-Like Storm Systems

Series Of Spring-Like & Winter-Like Storm Systems

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience Blog. Our blog has grown by over 100 people on the past few weeks. Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.  If you are from New Jersey, Los Angeles, or Kansas City, just let us know if you have questions about your area.  The weather pattern is a fascinating one across North America. Let’s take a look.

Topping this morning’s weather news is a rare morning late December Tornado Watch, and even one 7 AM Tornado Warning:

Severe Weather December 23

There was a tornado warning at 7 AM just south of the Arkansas/Missouri border and a morning Tornado Watch.  Here is today’s severe weather risk:

day1otlk_1300

All types of severe weather are possible today in that moderate risk and enhanced slight risk area.  The surface map this morning at 7 AM shows this December storm system moving across the plains:

Surface December 23 7 AM

Look at this rare December 23rd set up. Warm and moist air is surging north as of 7 AM across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. A strong surface low was centered near Manhattan, KS.  Now, look closely as it is down to 4 degrees over western Nebraska. This is an important factor for the big developing weekend storm. There will be some cold air for it to work with.  As today’s storm moves east the conditions will become favorable for possible severe weather outbreak.

LRC Update: It was earlier this month when we identified the cycle length at close to 50 days, likely in the 46 to 53 day range. We always firm this up by the end of December.  What happened around 50 days ago today? Take a look at the blog entry made on November 5th, 48 days ago:

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.24.28 AM

It is not just a coincidence. We have all just experienced the beginning of this year’s pattern in LRC Cycle 1, and now LRC Cycle 2. Think about this part of the pattern in LRC Cycles 4 and 5, 100 and 150 days from now, or around April 1st and the last third of May. Storm Chasers write it down now and plan your storm chase trips!

Weekend Storm System Thoughts:

These maps below are generated by Eurowx.com. These show the European model output from last night’s model run. This first one shows the European model ice accumulation, and the second one shows the snowfall accumulation:

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.08.45 AM

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.44.57 AM

Now, one very important ingredient is rather obviously cold air. Take a look at this morning’s GFS surface forecast valid Saturday morning:

1

There is an Arctic Air Mass just sitting up their to be tapped. It is being held way up there, but some of this cold air will be drawn down into this big storm. How much of it will be drawn down? How cold will it be? And, where will the upper low track? These are questions that will be answered soon. The upper low is likely going to drop all the way into Mexico before being kicked out.

On the surface map above, you can see the inverted trough extending north from the developing surface low into central Kansas and Nebraska. This will be blasted away by the cold front on Saturday evening.

The latest data has the temperatures down into the 20s on Sunday as this storm approaches. So, it is increasingly likely that the precipitation will be in a wintry form for part of this storm.

Now, we will discuss this, but the latest GFS again has absolutely blasted us with a major winter storm with ice and snow. And, lot’s of it. Hang on bloggers. This is still a few days away, but the cold air is a major factor and it is showing up.

Have a great day. I will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight. And, if you are out of town you can always watch our weathercasts on www.kshb.com! We stream every newscast live. If you have any questions or comments we will discuss them in our comments section.

Gary

2017-01-16T07:07:49+00:00 December 23rd, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. Jeremy December 23, 2015 at 7:33 am - Reply

    Nice to see that it is not going to stop snowing in the north west anytime soon. I think we are up to 7 days straight now. Hey Gary, could you zoom out a little on the last to maps you cut off Washington state.

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 7:46 am - Reply

      Jeremy,

      I zoomed out for you. It’s now posted! Thanks for asking and have a great day!

      Gary

  2. Jeff Wichitaks December 23, 2015 at 7:44 am - Reply

    They are telling us now down here in Wichita that all the heavy snow they were thinking would be out in SW KS around Dodge city from the last few runs looks like its shifting more to the east and now effecting centrl and South cent ks. If things hold up we could see alot of snow down here. I am wishing so badly we get nailed.

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 7:48 am - Reply

      Jeff,

      Everyone reacts to every single run. They are just telling you what the last model run showed, which is fine. We have to see how much cold air gets into this system. You can see the latest European model snowfall forecast from last night in today’s blog. Let’s see what the models do today.

      Gary

  3. Lee's Summit Mike December 23, 2015 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Gary,

    So the GFS model that everyone is freaking over from last night that showed 18+ in KC area is that for this weekend or New Years Eve weekend?

    thanks

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 8:02 am - Reply

      Yes, that is what it showed, and Mike, the potential is there. It’s a wet storm. It would have to take a nearly perfect track up across Nevada to Sedalia and it would have to be cold enough. These are two factors that most likely won’t quite come together. If they do, can you imagine?

      Gary

      • LS Mike December 23, 2015 at 9:41 am - Reply

        CHRISTMAS MIRACLE !!!!

    • stl78 December 23, 2015 at 8:06 am - Reply

      The 28th mike

  4. Bill. In Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good spring morning to you sir!!!! Gotta love Kansas-yesterday morning I was out sliding around on my bike in the frost-this morning….it is early May outside!!! 🙂 Looking at the latest surface charts the front appears to be through Manhattan and is on the move.

    Well…at least it is fun to be in on the conversation of winter weather…even if it may only last for 2-3 model runs!! Talk about riding the razor’s edge…I mean we always ride a razors edge here for winter weather but this redefines the term!!! It will be so interesting to follow that cold air in Nebraska and the Dakotas-can it hold on as warm air gets pumped north with the next two systems and as the main one develops? Will most of the warm air be brought more north and east? What will the final track off the storm actually be and what will that ridge off of Florida really do? Will the storm really be as strong as the models have shown so it can tap that colder air in Nebraska? Razor’s edge indeed!!!!

    All that said-I think (huge I think being the operative phrase) there is overall consensus that the storm will track NE some where between Topeka and Columbia, Missouri. How strong it will actually be remains to be seen-if that cold air can hold in the Dakotas there will for sure be quite the temperature gradient to strengthen it. How many solutions will the models churn out over the next 3-4 days….Gary…I feel for you…this may well be one of those classic KC set ups where part of the viewing area winds up with winter precip and other parts have warm rain…or it looks like the cold air will come but it stays warm for the whole event….figuring the devil in the details of this event is going to be something. You and the team will do great!!!! 🙂

    The LRC showed the way with this…if you look back the entire set up is there…including the colder air to the north in the Dakotas and Nebraska and some that colder air (October version) seeping south. In cycle 1 this storm was cut off from the main cold air in Canada just like now….there was also the ridge off of Florida….it was all there…this is just the December version…..which to me says that the more wintery solutions on the models does have merit….but where will it set up? Lawrence to KC in this cycle is on the edge and yes most likely will be on the outside looking in….but in cycle 3?? 🙂

    Have a great day everyone!!! Fun times ahead!!!

    Bill in Lawrence

  5. Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Good morning everyone!!!

    Fingers crossed all day for colder air, and SNOW!!!! I will be checking the weather blog every 30 mins for updates on maps. ??? Have a great day!!

    • stl78 December 23, 2015 at 9:36 am - Reply

      12z rolling out now

      • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 9:41 am - Reply

        Fingers crossed!

  6. LS Mike December 23, 2015 at 9:39 am - Reply

    bring on the SNOW!!!

  7. Tim December 23, 2015 at 10:13 am - Reply

    12z GFS.. 12″ for KC area! winds 30mph+

  8. Clint December 23, 2015 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Trend continues for another 6 hours. 12+ for entire metro

  9. stl78 December 23, 2015 at 10:14 am - Reply

    Blizzard conditions

    • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 10:24 am - Reply

      I like it, I love it, I want some more of it!!!

  10. Don December 23, 2015 at 10:23 am - Reply

    Hi weather enthusiasts!
    My name is Don. I live in Omaha, Ne. I have been following Gary and the Lrc for a few years
    as I am in the snow removal business up here. A local met thinks the gfs is erring right now https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/videos/474403536080301/?theater
    Any thoughts Gary?

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 10:38 am - Reply

      Don,

      Classic! This is a classic situation, but I commend his efforts. The latest GFS takes it even farther south, and this is why KC is now in the winter storm. If the cold air takes over, then the storm will track farther south, and this is where Mr. Flowers will be wrong.

      We should never be so confident. See what he says later today after he see’s the trend. It’s still four to five days away. The cold air is the major factor. The storm will more align itself with that baroclinic zone, or frontal zone. If it’s farther south, then the upper low will be farther south. I lean in the farther south scenario at the moment. Hang on!

      And, thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.

      Gary

  11. MikeL December 23, 2015 at 10:26 am - Reply

    Still looking good on the 12z GFS but the brunt of the storm is five days away. I don’t trust any of the models that far out because we’ve been burned many times before. I’m not buying in quite yet…

    • Bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 11:44 am - Reply

      Mike:

      I totally agree…how many busts have there been in this area?? Too many to count!! 🙂

      However, I do believe the consensus of the models that there will be a decent winter component to this storm. I believe the signals for it are in the LRC if you look back at this in cycle 1. We are seeing the December version of it and I am kind of mad at myself for not believing the earlier model runs of this winter component.

      Where that winter component actually sets up of course is the million dollar question. The 12Z to me seemed a bit further south and east and a bit flatter as it lifted NE. I would not be surprised if this run is not the furthest south and east we see….much further south and east and this may turn into a southern and central Missouri winter event…oh the irony…cold enough for snow but all the moisture is at the Current River!!! That would be typical KC winter weather!!! 🙂

      Looking at the NAM temps out to hour 84, there looks to be support there of a south of KC track as well….

      Fun times!!!! 🙂

      Bill in Lawrence

      • MikeL December 23, 2015 at 3:12 pm - Reply

        Yep Bill, fun times indeed! I wouldn’t be surprised to have it shift back NW based on what we’ve seen so far this season, but missing us to the SE would make me feel snake bit! Hope that doesn’t happen…lol!

  12. LS Mike December 23, 2015 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Gary,

    What’s your thoughts on the model output?

  13. Tim December 23, 2015 at 10:37 am - Reply

    “http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122312&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=100”

    Just Beautiful!

  14. Don December 23, 2015 at 10:42 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary!
    It’s fun rectifying how you go about the way you formulate v. the way he formulates
    forecasts. He did predict quite a bit of snow here this winter. Will be fun to see how
    it shakes out!

  15. Jack December 23, 2015 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Good Morning, Gary!!

    It is so good to be back for this winter season! It was so interesting seeing the trend evolve on the GFS yesterday. It is getting my hopes up but not too much, for it is still 5 full days ahead of us. Last night it seems you were not quite favoring this new trend, but today, it seems like you are.

    With the cold air further south, it will push the low further south? Question, what is causing the cold air to be in place and to push south? I understand why it would move the low south, I am just wondering where and what the cold is coming from.

    I am very much looking forward to this storm and looking forward to hearing your thoughts!!

    • stl78 December 23, 2015 at 11:04 am - Reply

      I think its the high located around the canadian border pushing the cold air south.I could b wrong tho

      • Morgan December 23, 2015 at 11:19 am - Reply

        It’s a combination of that and the lead wave before our storm that lays down a healthy snowpack over SD and northern NE.

  16. Plowboy87 December 23, 2015 at 11:38 am - Reply

    It’s going to snow because Gary is leaving town.

  17. Mr. Pete December 23, 2015 at 11:50 am - Reply

    Just to be clear this potential storm would hit next Monday correct? Do I have that right?

    • stl78 December 23, 2015 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      The 28th or there abouts mr pete

  18. Michael Casteel December 23, 2015 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    .30 inches of rain last night up here in Maryville. Funny how the GFS maps change so much. Last night it had us in major snow and now looks like KC gets more. I think I will wait and see on Tuesday! LOL Merry Christmas bloggers!
    Michael

    • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 12:11 pm - Reply

      How do you upload pictures to your profile?

      Thanks

      • Michael Casteel December 23, 2015 at 12:12 pm - Reply

        Be honest I forgot, someone else on blog helped me. I am a snow pusher not blessed with computer brains! My 5 year old knows more than I do LOL Sorry!

        • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 12:52 pm - Reply

          Anyone else remember how to put a picture on their profile?

          Thanks

          • rickmckc December 23, 2015 at 1:32 pm - Reply

            Gravatar

            • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm - Reply

              It wouldn’t sync with this account?

          • Gary H December 23, 2015 at 1:40 pm - Reply

            Go to “gravatar.com” and create a free account. The profile you create is linked to your registered email account. Wherever you use that email account (like Weather2020), you will see your avatar associated with your account. Hope that helps.

  19. stl78 December 23, 2015 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    Crazy that its 62 in kc and 33 with snow in Lincoln ne

  20. Craig December 23, 2015 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    “Particularly Dangerous Situation” Tornado Watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0559.html
    Something tells me there’s going to be quite a few of these over the next six months…

  21. HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    Everyone I’ve listened too thinks we will get almost all rain…not sure there is really any suspense as a result. Yawn!

    • Dale December 23, 2015 at 1:20 pm - Reply

      It’s great isn’t it? Where’s Terry at? I hope you two have school canceled for weeks due to heavy snow! Lol

      • Clint December 23, 2015 at 1:32 pm - Reply

        Dale on behalf of the blog shut up!

        • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 5:13 pm - Reply

          Dale, or is it Muku (same personality that makes you grit your teeth and cringe)…shhhhh. Go say rude stuff to someone face to face instead of anonymously on a blog…it’s pathetic.

      • MMike December 23, 2015 at 1:32 pm - Reply

        Dale,

        “I’m still searching to find what you and Heat actually add to this blog besides the constant attacks on people who don’t care if snows”

        You posted this yesterday in the direction of Heat……so, if you feel that way, why do you do it??

        • Dale December 23, 2015 at 2:07 pm - Reply

          Look at the attacks Mike. It’s not hard to see.

          • MMike December 23, 2015 at 2:11 pm - Reply

            Dale,

            You’re doing the same thing with your comments. That was my point of the post.

            Let’s move on…storm is coming. Now, I know you say rain all the time, but do you think we can finally break that with some snow on this one??

            • Dobber December 23, 2015 at 3:54 pm - Reply

              Dust off your plows Mike. There going to get some use next week.
              The trolls sure do come out of the woodwork.

          • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 4:52 pm - Reply

            Dale reminds me a lot of Muku. Dude, quit poking and proding the snow lovers all the time. I know it’s easy to be anonymous and be a jerk, because face to face nobody would put up with it. But it reveals an unhappy person underneath it all…and it’s kind of pathetic.

        • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 4:56 pm - Reply

          Dude, don’t lump me in with Dale. And don’t ask what I contribute in an insulting fashion like that…I’m that close to telling you where you can stick that…but I am showing some restraint.

  22. Las Mike December 23, 2015 at 1:11 pm - Reply

    Front just blasted through downtown kck at my office! Was sunny now cloudy and dropping temp.

  23. MMike December 23, 2015 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    As far south as the ULL will drop, I wonder if it is possible we miss most of the heavy stuff to our south and east when it kicks out into the plains. That’s for the rain and snow totals. The Canadian model was further SE then the GFS. Jeff Penner mentioned that the Euro did trend towards the GFS with all kinds of precip. types.

    Still 4-5 days out, the fun of tracking each model run. I guess one thing we can take from the current data is that there will be some cold air drawn into the storm.

    • Clint December 23, 2015 at 1:53 pm - Reply

      I just hope it makes it as far east as Warrensburg. Does anyone have a link to the Canadian

    • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 5:22 pm - Reply

      I used to think it was fun too…until I came to learn you usually can’t really tell what will happen in KC with these winter storms four or five days out from the models as they constantly change. For a number of reasons we really don’t have the ability to predict winter storms for our area this far out. Mabye two or three days out we a least have a shot at it, but four, five, seven plus days out…it’s silly. It’s more pure conjecture and gambling odds than science.

  24. stl78 December 23, 2015 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    Do u guys still have to fill in your name and email every time u post something? I do

    • Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      Yes, I do also

      • LS Mike December 23, 2015 at 2:30 pm - Reply

        me too

        • stl78 December 23, 2015 at 2:37 pm - Reply

          Ok thx. I know some on here have said they do not to. Strange

  25. Cliff December 23, 2015 at 2:10 pm - Reply

    It looks good but it’s a long ways away!

  26. Bob December 23, 2015 at 3:33 pm - Reply

    Here comes the 18z GFS!

  27. Kathy December 23, 2015 at 3:48 pm - Reply

    Wow, as a severe weather enthusiast (but not in my backyard), I am currently watching TVN weatherchasers, and “Minuteman” is following a huge wedge in northern Mississippi. Some violent weather down there: https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783736

  28. f00dl3 December 23, 2015 at 4:07 pm - Reply

    Let’s see if things continue to trend favorably. ECMWF, GFS, NAM, CMC, and JMA models now all support significant snow and ice here. GEM still not quite on the bandwagon.

  29. AlexPickman December 23, 2015 at 4:13 pm - Reply

    A much more realistic snowstorm on the 18z GFS.

  30. Morgan December 23, 2015 at 4:19 pm - Reply

    GFS snaps us back to reality. A lot warmer and mostly rain. Fun while it lasted. Tonight’s runs will be important.

    • CRW December 23, 2015 at 4:25 pm - Reply

      Definitely a lot warmer. Oh well……

  31. Morgan December 23, 2015 at 4:45 pm - Reply

    Crickets after 18z.

    • Dobber December 23, 2015 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      Still shows snow

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 4:51 pm - Reply

      One step forward, two steps back! Let’s remember that this storm is dropping way down into Mexico. It’s doing everything it can to bring warm air back in here. Let’s see how this looks moving forward. I have the tough task of describing it. I am working on graphics for our 5 and 6 PM newscast now.

      Gary

      • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 5:06 pm - Reply

        Gary, I want snow as much as the next guy, but i’ve listened to a lot of weather folks, including you, and everyone seems to think we will be mostly if not entirely in the rain. So, I guess I don’t get the model to model suspense with the GFS, which the general consensus seems to deem as rubbish as far as snow next Monday in KC is concerned. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you think it’s highly likely it will be too warm for snow with this one right?

    • CRW December 23, 2015 at 5:08 pm - Reply

      Big disappointment. Maybe the storm in the middle of January will produce.

  32. Tim December 23, 2015 at 5:38 pm - Reply

    Am i just blind?.. but the 18z GFS still shows 6-8″ of snow coming in about 6 hours later than previous runs?

  33. Weatherfreaker December 23, 2015 at 5:43 pm - Reply

    Agreed, Tim. I just checked it out after reading all of the comments that it was already a “poof” and I still see a significant snow/sleet or ice event coming on the 18z GFS. Maybe we are both blind??? Can anyone clarify?

  34. Dale December 23, 2015 at 5:50 pm - Reply

    I’m not surprised. It is literally bringing and wrapping warm air into the storm.

    Go Rain!

    • CRW December 23, 2015 at 6:11 pm - Reply

      The National Weather Service doesn’t see this as a major snow event either. Rain with snow mixed in. The snow flake contest continues. On to mid-January.

    • Dobber December 23, 2015 at 8:01 pm - Reply

      Still shows 6-8″ dale. Go snow

  35. Las Mike December 23, 2015 at 5:55 pm - Reply

    I concur on 18z 8in.

    • Las Mike December 23, 2015 at 5:57 pm - Reply

      i concur 8in. On 18z

  36. Bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 6:11 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good evening to you sir!!

    A few random thoughts that I am most likely not qualified to make but here it goes!!
    Well, the “correction” we all knew was coming happened. I don’t think anyone really believed that four runs daily of the GFS would have the exact same output for the next 4 days….there are going to be many different solutions going forwards with 2-3 model runs showing something similar and then 2-3 showing a different solution.

    That said, I would respectfully argue that there are a couple of certainties that one can ascertain from the previous days of model runs. The NE trajectory of the upper level low will be between say Topeka, Kansas and Herman, Missouri and also that there will be a fairly significant winter scenario to this storm. I think there are signals in the LRC to back up both of these scenarios and arguably there is a signal for the more eastern/southern track. If I am looking at the correct data and interpreting the data correctly (a huge if..) this storm in early November did have some colder air (early November version) sitting to the north and did tap into some of it….i.e. the blizzard in western Kansas. In cycle one this storm tracked pretty much right over KC but since this is the cycle 2/December version, one could argue that it would take a more southern track given the time of the year. In short, I think there is evidence in the LRC for the winter solution and one could extrapolate that that component impacting KC is not that far out of the realm of possibility.

    That said, do I really believe KC is going to have the blizzard type scenario as depicted on the 12Z run….not at all….possible yes…but incredibly doubtful. However, even getting an inch of snow….some freezing drizzle and cold air would be a victory storm for us at this time in this cycle. Especially considering what it looked like 3 days ago. Again, I do think there is evidence in the LRC for this area to at least have some winter weather with this system…..could it wind up all being rain…of course it could…but I think the models have grasped an idea and the LRC has again shown the way.

    Of course, the exact track of the low…the strength of the low…the resilience of the cold air in the Dakotas/Nebraska….the high to the north and the ridge off of Florida how all of these factors play out remains to be seen and it probably won’t be until tomorrow night’s runs that the models begin having a true consensus and even then it is going to be tough. To me though, no matter what happens, the amazing thing is that the LRC showed that all of these pieces would be present for this event and we get to look forward to it all returning in cycle 3!!!

    Sorry again for the long post…I promise this will be the last for a while….and honestly I have no idea if any of this is even on the right track…. But I appreciate humoring me to post it!!!! 

    Have a great night everyone and blessed merry Christmas!!!!

    Bill in Lawrence

    • Baseball Mike December 23, 2015 at 6:31 pm - Reply

      Bill I agree one of our mets here in Topeka is sticking with snow as the other one is undecided. Thanks always for your posts-as one fellow teacher to. another enjoy the break and possible winter precip-Happy holidays and Merry Christmas-Michael/Berryton/Topeka

      • Bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 7:51 pm - Reply

        Baseball Mike:

        Likewise sir!!! I always so enjoy reading your reports from Topeka. I am actually SW of Lawrence between Lone Star and Clinton Lake so I think our weather is very much in line with each other.

        I think we are both in an interesting position here especially you….being further west even a track just east of KC could put us in more winter type weather. Will be fun to track for sure!!!

        How did finals turn out for you? I still have a couple having technical difficulties uploading to I-Tunes U but other than that all is pretty smooth. Time now to prepare for next semester and work on some school projects I’m responsible for. Nice to have the time to work on them…I’m blessed for sure!!! 🙂

        Have a very Merry Christmas!!! Even if this doesn’t pan out, we still have the Thanksgiving set up and all of it coming back through in cycle 3!!!! 🙂

        • Baseball Mike December 24, 2015 at 6:24 am - Reply

          Bill, my students did very well–I am done grading and am looking forward what happens in this cycle of the LRC
          Michael

    • Ross December 23, 2015 at 6:51 pm - Reply

      Bill in Lawrence, I look forward to your analysis just as much as Gary & co. Keep it coming. I don’t comment very much, but I love reading the analysis from fellow blog readers.

      • Bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 7:56 pm - Reply

        Ross:

        Thanks so much for the kind words…..I really appreciate it. Honestly, I’m not sure if I am even on the right track but I appreciate Gary giving me the forum to make myself look foolish!!! 🙂

        Kind of like the commerical…I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night!! 🙂

        Have a great evening and very Merry Christmas!!

        Bill in Lawrence

  37. bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    The 0z NAM, if I am reading it correctly is interesting. Granted the NAM beyond 60 hours is suspect, but by 0Z Saturday night a front has already passed Lawrence and is on KC’s doorstep and the freezing line is already almost through Topeka and by midnight Satuarday night the freezing line is through Lawrence with north winds 20-25 MPH. There is also close to single digit readings in western Nebraska.

    Granted this is only out to 84 hours and it is the NAM past 42 hours but looking at this model run it appears as though the cold air is going to make it to at least Lawrence if not KC and with a strong North wind it seems unlikely that the warm air would take back over.

    Is it right?? Who knows, but it does make one wonder if the 0Z GFS will not be trending back to a colder solution for the area.

    Just though it was interesting…if I am reading it correctly…huge if!!! 🙂

    • Gary December 23, 2015 at 9:50 pm - Reply

      Bill,

      Thank you for your thoughts and Happy Holidays. Today alone was fascinating. Our pressure dipped to 29.10″ this morning. What a strong low pressure area that was that tracked right near KC. Then we got into the wrap around moisture and again missed out on the snowflakes. A system will track right through our area, mainly along I-70 and north on Christmas Eve. I have been tracking this system for ten days now, literally this little system and it frustrates me as it is so close to producing snow on Thursday, but it will likely fall just short. And, then the big storm. Maybe it won’t drop as far south into Mexico. Either way, it will be fun to track. I just don’t have a gut instinct yet on this storm.

      Gary

  38. Rockdoc December 23, 2015 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    Just bought additional wood at Home Depot. Nice hardwood too! Better safe than freezing cold:(

    Haaaa, the snow, ice and rain drama begins. The million dollar snowflake question is where does the surface and upper level lows set up? What are the vertical temps and moisture?

    There has been a drunken wobble with the lows, and other factors, so depending on who has the best happy hour will determine which bar this weather system decides to visit:)

  39. Tim December 23, 2015 at 10:12 pm - Reply

    00z GFS **poof** lol

  40. Alex Pickman December 23, 2015 at 10:16 pm - Reply

    00z seems to be agreeing more with the GEM. Too much warm air wrapping in. This storm is still over the Pacific, though, so it’s impossible to base a conclusion on these model runs

  41. Dale December 23, 2015 at 10:16 pm - Reply

    Uh oh. Lol POOF.
    Painful to see….for some.
    Go rain!

    • HEAT MISER December 23, 2015 at 11:58 pm - Reply

      Go away Muku!

  42. Morgan December 23, 2015 at 10:30 pm - Reply

    GFS looses the snow aspect with much less cold air wrapping into the system. Fun while it lasted. Just the pattern we’re stuck in.

  43. Mr. Pete December 23, 2015 at 11:14 pm - Reply

    Poof for now but I suspect it will be back on in the AM.

  44. Waldo Weather December 23, 2015 at 11:14 pm - Reply

    Here is to dreaming about snow!!! ?

  45. Bill in Lawrence December 23, 2015 at 11:24 pm - Reply

    I have to respectfully disagree with less cold air; the front moves through Lawrence before 0Z Saturday with the freezing line through here before midnight; which is earlier than other runs; I would argue that the differences are that the ridge off of Florida is basically gone on this run and that the low track is much flatter to the east and the low itself is not nearly as strong. Thus there is much less moisture for this area……we are below freezing from Saturday night through Monday so there is plenty of cold air inmho….but Is this particular model run correct?? Time will tell.

    The 0Z NAM had much more precip with the same temps as the GFS; by hour 69 Lawrence is below freezing with 1/2 inch of precip….

    Just my observations…

    Bill in Lawrence

    • Morgan December 24, 2015 at 12:10 am - Reply

      This is true and the placement of the high to the NW is also critical. We need to wait and see what happens with that lead wave in SD and N NE before a consistent track comes into focus. There’s also a piece of energy off of SoCal coming in behind ours that could be playing havoc with the models.

      • Bill in Lawrence December 24, 2015 at 12:30 am - Reply

        Morgan:

        Thanks for the response!!!! Yea….there are so many factors at play here….the models are going to have a time.

        Honestly…considering the way this winter has gone so far and the way last winter played out the 0Z. GFS doesn’t look too bad to me. Granted it is not the 12Z run or even the 18Z run but Monday night into Tuesday we could be looking at our best snow fall in 2 years or at least our biggest winter impact storm in quite some time. One thing this run has solidified in my mind is that somewhere between OKC and Columbia, Mo is going to see a fairly significant winter event. This has moved around on the last few runs, but the winter aspect is there. OKC on this particular run looks to get hit pretty hard with some marginal snow temps but with the surface below freezing and then Columbia, Mo looks to get a very good snow fall out of this with us in between. The NAM in contrast had that OKC precip over us with our temps. Below freezing..

        So many model runs to go and as Alex said….we need to get this thing on shore to get it sampled!!

        Always enjoy your comments!!!!

        Have a great evening!!

        Bill in Lawrence

  46. Rockdoc December 23, 2015 at 11:35 pm - Reply

    Happy hour ????? is now showing up near Little Rock and then scooting into !Memphis! Ahhhhh, the life of a weather model geek?. Time to get some sleep. Lots of errands to run tomorrow. Lots of model runs. Looks like the system could possibly stall. Tuesday it hits?

    Do hope all down south are safe. God Bless! Horrible time for tornados. Later, Rock.

  47. Mr. Pete December 24, 2015 at 12:24 am - Reply

    What’s it looking like for Chiefs game forecast?

  48. Morgan December 24, 2015 at 12:31 am - Reply

    EURO is a cold rain. Just a fifty mile shift south would make all the difference. That solution would be a tough one to swallow.

  49. Mr. Pete December 24, 2015 at 12:39 am - Reply

    Monday looks pretty brutal no matter if rain or snow. Windy too.

  50. Alex Pickman December 24, 2015 at 4:20 am - Reply

    06z GFS has a nice little 1 to 4 inch snowstorm. I know everyone wants to see those impressive totals again, but come on now. Let’s get our first inch of snow first. I’d love the first snow to be a major winter storm, but that typically is not the case. Everything will have to come together with this storm. It’s going to try everything it has to throw that warm air back into the system. Let’s see how today trends. Remember people, this storm hasn’t even made landfall yet, so the models won’t get a good sample until it does so. This sucker could go either way.

  51. Alex Pickman December 24, 2015 at 4:30 am - Reply
  52. Waldo Weather December 24, 2015 at 6:39 am - Reply

    Honestly… It’s hard not to think it could be all rain… Sadly

  53. LS Mike December 24, 2015 at 7:07 am - Reply

    God bless those poor people in the Southeast this morning, how horrible it must be to go through that especially at this time of year. Mother nature has no mercy!! Merry Christmas everyone and be thankful for what you have!

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