Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
Winter begins tonight at 10:48 PM central time. Spring is just 90 days away and we are forecasting a rather active severe weather season this spring with this storm track that developed earlier this fall according to the LRC. We will discuss spring in a few weeks. For now, what will this pattern bring this winter? It has started out quite warm in many parts of the United States. In our winter forecast we predicted a warm winter season. We also predicted a dominant storm track #1 which I pulled from our winter forecast and posted below:
This storm track is once again forecast to develop in the next five days. Let’s see how it evolves on the latest GFS model:
Here is the flow aloft, 18,000 feet up, forecast for this morning. The flow is unblocked and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is peaking in the next two days. I will show this AO index in just a minute. There is energy coming into the Pacific northwest this morning and this will help carve out a trough to over the middle of North America by the middle of this week.
On this second map you can see the deeper trough that extends from the southern Canada south into Mexico by Wednesday. If you look closely, in the upper left corner of this map on the right, you can see some new energy coming in, and this is the energy that will begin dropping into the big, highly advertised storm system for the end of the week.
If the AO weren’t so positive, this middle of the nation trough would likely be producing snow in Kansas City, but instead the warm trend and bias in the pattern just goes on and on.
This next map shows the energy dropping right into our forecast dominant #1 storm track. This is a deep trough that will pull up tremendous amounts of moisture into the plains and eastern half of the nation later this week. What happens next with this storm has had the models producing all kinds of solutions.
Here is one of those solutions. By Sunday night you can see a “kicker” coming into the west coast and it will help eject out the slow moving storm by Sunday night. Notice how the northern stream, the northern branch of the jet stream is completely separate from this closed off system moving across Oklahoma late in the up coming weekend. This means that this storm will lose it’s cold air source.
Okay, so what does all of this mean? It really is rather complex. Just using this year’s LRC, we are expecting the warm air to be pulled into the system. There will still likely be a rain/freezing rain/snow line developing. There may be some severe thunderstorms and a spring element to this storm as has been the case with the earlier version of this part of the pattern in LRC Cycle 1. Let’s see how it sets up. We should narrow in on the solution in the next two to four days.
Have a great Monday. And, thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog! Let us know if you have any questions. There is a lot to discuss this week!