A Big Change In The Next Five Days

/A Big Change In The Next Five Days

A Big Change In The Next Five Days

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The weather pattern will go through some major changes in the next five days. Right now the United States is mostly in west to east flow aloft, what we call zonal flow aloft. By the end of the week a big dip in the flow will develop over the western states. Let’s take a look:

2On this first map there continues to be strong hints and indications of a positive Arctic Oscillation and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Here’s how you can tell. As you look at the flow aloft, the map to the left which shows the flow at around 18,000 feet above us or the 500 mb level, you can see one stream of flow across the Pacific Ocean going over a ridge off the California coast.  And, then there is a little dip approaching the Missouri River Valley, and another system just off the northeastern coast. More importantly, take a look at the northern stream across far northern Canada. There is little obstruction to the flow, thus no blocking, and this is indicative of the AO and NAO positive indexes.

By the end of the week, that disturbing northern stream continues, but look at what is coming back.  A big dip in the flow over the southwestern states. This is something we must monitor closely. This next map is valid Friday night at midnight:

1

Now, I am sure many of you are going to jump from conclusion to conclusion as these changes are modeled by the computer models. I suggest just monitoring these models and let’s wait before we make any conclusions on whether it will snow or now, where the best chance of snow will be located or not, etc.  Just last night the European model and the GFS model had very different solutions for this weekend and next week. The European Model had snow near KC where the GFS had it yesterday, but then the overnight GFS had no snow. Let’s give it two or three more days as the models are not handling this change very well at all.  Using the LRC, this first storm is doing beginning to look more like it should, and the second storm was lost by the GFS model last night, so it was likely just way off.

Right now, it appears the warm pattern will be continuing with a lack of any major Arctic air blasts showing up. Some Arctic air is building, and some blocking has been modeled in around seven to fourteen days. Let’s see how this develops.

Have a great day, and we will look deeper into these developments in tomorrow’s blog. Take a look at my dogs at sunrise this morning. This is Breezy, the big one, and Sunny, my 8 month old.

DSCN2650

Gary

2015-12-08T07:31:34+00:00December 8th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Gary you was talking about how the models are having a hard time handling this change and you said the second storm system GFS disappeared and you said it was most likely way off. So in about two to three days do you expect the second storm the show back up on a model GFS model?

  2. Kathy December 8, 2015 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Your dogs are adorable against our red sunrise. I hope they get along well. I don’t think we will see any definite trends one way or another about snow next week until we get closer to that time. Just out of curiosity, to what part of Oct/Nov. does next week resemble LRC-wise? I enjoy watching the cycles repeat themselves and would like to go back and review what was happening during that previous cycle. Thanks.

  3. MMike December 8, 2015 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Terry,

    I just received this from the NWS by email:

    “Due to the incredible warmth that we’re currently having and the going forecast, we’re canceling winter for this year. We’re going to extend spring by 3 months”

    They also mentioned that the Chiefs will finish the year on a 10 game winning streak and will go to the playoffs.

    • terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 9:53 am - Reply

      Yeah right you know what that is ??? . We know we don’t have to have arctic air to have snow. I’m with Heat on that. All it takes is just a little bit of cold air enough in the storm to generate its own cold air. I’m with Joe and what he was saying last night on the blog. So why do you always comment on my stuff? Just to stir up some trouble?

      • Gary December 8, 2015 at 10:42 am - Reply

        Remember everyone,

        As we move through this “emotional” winter season, let’s try to keep our emotions to ourselves, if that makes sense. In other words, express yourself freely on this LRC Forecast Experience blog, but try to discuss with others logically and not emotionally. Not an easy thing to do!

        And, by the way, the GFS, again, you can throw it out. The Canadian model has come in with more functional storm systems. The chance that the GFS is closer to correct is 20%, the chance the Canadian model is closer to correct is 80%. The chance they are both wrong, 90%. It’s just too far away. In looking back on LRC Cycle 1, and this is the incredible thing we have with the LRC, is that we know the system on Saturday fits, and it likely will be a bit deeper with a good chance of precipitation, most likely in the form of rain, and the second one will be more negatively tilted. If on the second one, the southern part is stronger, then we have a winter storm here. If the northern part is stronger, then the winter storm goes north. I favor the southern storm next week.

        Gary

      • Heat Miser December 8, 2015 at 11:47 am - Reply

        Yes Terry, he is messing with you.

    • Gary H December 8, 2015 at 10:09 am - Reply

      I saw that email too. Didn’t they also mention summer begins April 1st? Don’t winterize your lawn care equipment this year…you may need it. 🙂

  4. MMike December 8, 2015 at 10:00 am - Reply

    Terry,

    At ease solider, not stirring trouble, just having some fun.

    Loosen up brotha!! So serious all the time….it will snow, it always does.

    Have a great spring like day!

  5. terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 10:04 am - Reply

    Okay no problem we’re good

  6. Mr. Pete December 8, 2015 at 10:40 am - Reply

    March 1 spring begins. Not far away

  7. Alice December 8, 2015 at 10:48 am - Reply

    NWS Kansas City today…..
    At this time we do not see much in the way of a clear signal for a major snow storm any time soon. However, we do see a signal that cooler air will become a more frequent guest to the area after this upcoming warm spell and the storm pattern does also look somewhat active down the road as well. While the models do not directly indicate much confidence in a snow storm, if the cool air and active storm pattern work in concert a little better something could line up for a storm or perhaps a series of storms between this weekend and Christmas.

    (But what do they know,…..they use models…..but they do not know when the models are wrong, and when they are right.)

    Alice

  8. MMike December 8, 2015 at 10:59 am - Reply

    Alice,

    I read over that too…thanks for posting.

    12z GFS still having some issues with consistency. However, still not a fan of snow quite yet.
    The LRC calls for a storm next week, but doesn’t state whether it will be snow or rain here in KC.

  9. MMike December 8, 2015 at 11:05 am - Reply

    The latest GFS certainly has some colder trends….hopefully we can time out some storm systems with it.

    GO WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!

  10. Morgan December 8, 2015 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    GFS has everything way north. Like north woods of Minnesota north. EURO further south but the common theme on both models is rain. Pattern is not conducive to snow this far south.

    • terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 12:30 pm - Reply

      You talking about this weekend’s storm?

    • CRW December 8, 2015 at 1:53 pm - Reply

      I agree completely. A cold rain with the snow out west and up north.

    • HEAT MISER December 8, 2015 at 2:11 pm - Reply

      It’s a good thing there’s no way to tell this far out and that speculation would be pure conjecture.

      • CRW December 8, 2015 at 2:53 pm - Reply

        So far, this has the feel of the 2011-2012 winter where the average temperature was 36.4F. If I remember right, there was 3-4 inches of snow that winter. Could it change, certainly as it is not yet officially winter.

        • HEAT MISER December 8, 2015 at 3:35 pm - Reply

          36.4 degrees average high winter? That would be below normal. The coldest month average for KC in the winter is 38 degrees in January.

  11. Dale December 8, 2015 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    This year’s cold will always be 10-16 days away. It will moderate greatly by the time it gets here imo.

  12. stl78 December 8, 2015 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    Anyone want to venture a guess as to the lowest temp this yr. I don’t think we will see single digits

    • Clint December 8, 2015 at 1:41 pm - Reply

      I bet when we get snow on the ground we have some single didgits

      • stl78 December 8, 2015 at 1:56 pm - Reply

        I agree with ya clint bit thats a BIG IF we get that snow!

        • terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 2:12 pm - Reply

          Will get the snow this winter. Then we’ll be able to get down into the single digits or even a little bit lower.

        • Dale December 8, 2015 at 2:17 pm - Reply

          I think we will see single digits this Winter.

  13. f00dl3 December 8, 2015 at 3:34 pm - Reply

    GFS always fantasizes in the long range.

  14. MMike December 8, 2015 at 4:01 pm - Reply

    f00dl3,

    The GFS showed 60’s for tomorrow, Thurs, and Friday 8 days ago. It looks to be right. Most models past 10 days have bad trends to them. The weather model data if you think about it is pretty amazing. For a computer to tell you that it will be in the 60’s in 8 days is off the charts amazing….that’s predicting the future.

    I think some take the data to seriously, just use it for trends….not exact forecasts. That’s where people think they’re totally wrong all the time because they’re looking for perfect forecasts.

    I feel the data that predicts the future is amazing.

    • Gary December 8, 2015 at 4:20 pm - Reply

      Mike,

      What do you think of the new GFS that has snow during the Chiefs game?

      Gary

  15. MMike December 8, 2015 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    I was just about to comment on that….at face value right now, it would be snowing heavily during the game!! WOW!!

    5 days out….

    • Gary December 8, 2015 at 4:51 pm - Reply

      Yesterday it looked like the 16th storm, and this afternoon it looks like this weekend’s storm that will bring our first accumulation of snow. Let’s see how this trends in the next few model runs.

      Gary

      • CRW December 8, 2015 at 5:04 pm - Reply

        Hopefully that holds up.

  16. MMike December 8, 2015 at 5:16 pm - Reply

    The 18z GFS certainly shows a much chillier pattern starting later this weekend and some storm potential.

    It did show a snowy Christmas Eve…just a trend though.

  17. MMike December 8, 2015 at 6:24 pm - Reply

    Do any weather guys look at the GEFS model? No one ever references that model…how come?

    Anyway, it shows a major storm this weekend also.

    • joe December 8, 2015 at 9:46 pm - Reply

      Mike,

      Just read your comments, ok, maybe it is me having a bad month..LOL. I know you like the snow as do I, really hoping the grass stops growing and we get to put the plows to work!

  18. rickmckc December 8, 2015 at 6:34 pm - Reply

    Now this is my kind of winter … golf Thursday afternoon … then snow Sunday afternoon (with surface temps slightly above freezing).

  19. Rockdoc December 8, 2015 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    Could the Sunday storm that is showing up be the one I mentioned for Monday the 14th about 1 week ago? I think so. I thought after that model run I was off my rocker since it disappeared. Poof! It would appear that the GFS model is starting to grab onto it again. Nice surface low starting out over Texas panhandle spinning our way with upper level trough converging. However, the surface temps may not be supportive of snow even though the models are showing it. Temps at 2m surface are near 35-40 while those at 500 mb definitely showing cold at -30. The trough is somewhat negatively tilted and shows good vortex around18z time frame, or noon our time. Definitely something to watch for to see if if stays around or goes poof again! Could be that this is a keeper:)

  20. Morgan December 8, 2015 at 11:23 pm - Reply

    Storm is drifting way nw for Sunday on the GFS. Time to look toward the storm showing up Christmas week.

    • terry mercer December 9, 2015 at 6:00 am - Reply

      There should be two more storms before Christmas. Gary said a series of storms.

Leave A Comment