Big Warming Trend This Week

/Big Warming Trend This Week

Big Warming Trend This Week

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The incredible cycling pattern is set for the season.  We are moving into the second cycle of this year’s  features of this year’s pattern.  When will they return? What will they mean as we move through this winter season when they do return? Will California get blasted by massive winter storm systems as is being advertised by what is supposed to happen during a strong El Niño winter?  We will be answering these questions in the next few days and weeks.

LRC INDEX December 7

Here is the first cycle of this year’s pattern, and likely the first ten days of the second cycle. The pattern that is developing this week will feature a pretty big warm-up across a large part of the nation, and then within the next week a big change will happen.

The pattern forming now is quite similar to close to 50 days ago.  There is a signature “look” to the pattern that we have been waiting on, and it appears to be showing up in next weeks storm system.  How will it actually set up, and what areas will be targeted by the warm side of this storm, and which areas will be targeted by the cold side of this storm is yet to be determined.  We do know that the AO and NAO indexes have continued to be positive and this favors a more unblocked and farther north track.  This is not set in stone yet, so let’s see how it evolves in the coming days.

You can see this storm on the computer models now. On this model from the midnight run of last night’s GFS model an upper low is forecast to develop over Utah by one week from tonight. The models have varying strengths of this system, but most of them now track  it north of Kansas City. For it to snow in KC we will need the main disturbance to track farther south than the trend has been showing, and this is a possibility. We do have, however, a split of the southwestern Canada coast forecast to develop, and the northern stream continues to be rather flat:

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Now, before we even get to this storm, take a look at the warm pattern we are in this week:

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We have what is called a mostly zonal jet stream, from west to east, but by the end of the week a big dip in the flow is forecast to develop:

3

Before we get to any significant changes in the winter direction we have a big warming trend first. Take a look at this level, the 850 mb forecast (5,000 feet up) showing the lack of any cold air:

1

This is a warm pattern out ahead of next week’s change and temperatures will likely get close to record highs in many areas. The AO is forecast to dip into negative territory next week, and I have seen some model runs start to block up the pattern. It is something we have to monitor closely as it could have an impact on next week’s storm.

Have a great day, and thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog.  Have you entered our contest yet. You have one more week to enter as we are forecasting for the Christmas week. Click here to enter:  Long Range Weather Forecast Contest

Gary

2015-12-07T05:29:20+00:00December 7th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. f00dl3 December 7, 2015 at 7:12 am - Reply

    For the snowflake contest to end 1″ of snow has to accumulate – correct?

    I can see us having a situation with as much warm air as we’ve had and us being near 70 this week were even if 4″ of snow falls, we may not have 1″ accumulate unless it comes down real hard. Especially when we fail to have any Arctic air setting up shop.

    • Gary December 7, 2015 at 7:23 am - Reply

      Yes, there has to be 1″ and on the Plaza in front of the KSHB studios. And, it is just a myth that if it’s 70 degrees the day of or the day before that it would be hard to have an inch of snow accumulate because of how warm it was. It depends on how warm it is, not how warm it was. Remember the October Surprise in 1996? Eight inches of snow fell in that storm, and it happened on October 22nd in KC. We hadn’t even had our first freeze of the season and five inches were already on the ground by the time it dropped to 32 that late afternoon. Now, most of the snow was on grassy surfaces.

      Gary

  2. Baseball Mike December 7, 2015 at 7:25 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary–Yes, it is interesting to see all other weather sources I follow changing their forecasts everyday—they seem to be having a difficult time with the long range forecasts which is natural. Are you still confident that it could turn stormy winter wise in the next two weeks? It is the temperatures that keep changing on the forecasts that seem to mess up the forecasts. Thanks for the information. Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • Gary December 7, 2015 at 7:27 am - Reply

      Michael,

      We will go through the 30 day stretch with the four to five big western storm systems. So, yes, I am expecting and forecasting it to get quite stormy, but will it be cold enough to snow? We really need the pattern to block up just a bit.

      Gary

  3. Dobber December 7, 2015 at 8:14 am - Reply

    Great blog today Gary!

  4. terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Gary you was talking about we would go through the next 30 to 35 day’s about the storm y part of the pattern. I was wondering can you or do you no when the storm Systems might hit or what date and day’s? Thanks.

    • Gary H December 7, 2015 at 8:59 am - Reply

      I could be wrong, but I think Gary’s waiting to verify the cycle length before he goes into any detail on this next 30-day stretch.

  5. Gary H December 7, 2015 at 8:56 am - Reply

    I am experiencing an IE crash every time I try to use the 12-week forecast for my ZIP code. Anyone else experiencing that?

    • MMike December 7, 2015 at 12:18 pm - Reply

      Gary H,

      YES, I have had the same problem. I mentioned it to Gary L and he said get lost. I’m watching the Chiefs game right now.

  6. terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:39 am - Reply

    Gary also you was talking that AO is forcast next week dip into the negative next week and is forcast to by some of the models and blocking is with some of them and you say something of the models showing the pa

    • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:41 am - Reply

      And you said some of the models start to show some blocking of the pattern. Is that the blocking we need to happen Gary? Sorry message sent too early before I was

  7. Mike December 7, 2015 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Thank you for the detailed information Gary. Yesterday you posted a GFS link for 12-16. Can you post that same map everyday so we can all see how wishy washy the models can be from day to day?

    Thanks,
    Mike

    • craig December 7, 2015 at 10:51 am - Reply

      You can find it here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015120712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

      After disappearing yesterday, the storm is showing up again…though not as strong as yesterday.

      • CRW December 7, 2015 at 3:38 pm - Reply

        Is the GFS still showing snow for next week or are we back to rain?

        • Thomas December 7, 2015 at 4:24 pm - Reply

          New one just starting to come out

          • MMike December 7, 2015 at 4:53 pm - Reply

            CRW,

            Latest GFS barely has any moisture over the next 10 days. Warm and boring….

            • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 4:54 pm - Reply

              Things will change that we all know that

            • Gary December 7, 2015 at 5:00 pm - Reply

              Mike,

              The latest GFS had everything too far east. Throw it out!!!! Remember, we have the LRC. It will be a bit farther west. This morning’s model was close, but still not quite right.

              Gary

            • CRW December 7, 2015 at 8:56 pm - Reply

              Thanks for checking. I think we may hit maybe 10 inches of snow for the winter if we are lucky.

    • Gary December 7, 2015 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Mike,

      The latest data just came in and it has a more realistic snowstorm near KC. The pattern predicted fits the new LRC like a glove, but it doesn’t mean it will set up just right. At this moment a 1 to 3 inch snowstorm seems most likely around the 16th. Let’s see how it sets up.

      Gary

      • Mike December 7, 2015 at 1:46 pm - Reply

        Thank you Gary for responding and Thank you Craig for posting the link. Enjoy the fantastic weather today.

        All the best!
        Mike

  8. MMike December 7, 2015 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    The thick frost this morning might be as close as we get to snow cover this winter.

    We’re going to challenge the all time record low snowfall of 3.9 inches.

    There’s a better chance at a heat advisory this winter then a snow advisory.

    I’ll check back in after I clean the pool, mow the grass, and water the ‘still alive” flowers…….IN DECEMBER!!!

    • stl78 December 7, 2015 at 6:07 pm - Reply

      Lol @ mm. I don’t think we will challenge the 3.9 record. I’m thinking 17 in this yr. I’m workin in Minn this week where it was 43 today!

    • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 6:15 pm - Reply

      MMike I don’t know why you keep saying we’re going to challenge of 3.9 inches of snow this year you don’t know that we don’t know that.

    • joe December 7, 2015 at 9:02 pm - Reply

      There is no way you are the real mower mike

      • MMike December 7, 2015 at 9:05 pm - Reply

        Joe,

        I am……why do you say that?

        • joe December 7, 2015 at 10:53 pm - Reply

          Mike,

          Because you have always been a solid in this and the 41 blog, always positive and always conducting yourself with respect and as of late, you have made some comments that mean one of two things, you are not the real mower mike or you are having a real bad month. Just an observation
          On another note, I realize we are abnormally warm however, it only takes a minor shift and we can get a major ice or snow storm. I for one, believe we will get slammed at some point taking into consideration the roller coaster we are on. Wild animals ( yes, I said wild animals) have been acting very strange the past few weeks as I have observed while hunting with my son. In my experience, that spells some wild weather in the near future….may not be scientific but it is something I have watched for the past 20 + years

          • MMike December 8, 2015 at 6:46 am - Reply

            Hey Joe,

            What comments are you talking about? I’m just messing around with it being so warm. I want it to snow a bunch, it’s just a very warm pattern. I know it can change around here quickly.

            I don’t think my comments are suggesting I’m having a bad month…LOL. Your not picking up on my sarcastic approach.

      • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:22 pm - Reply

        Joe I’m glad somebody else was thinking the same thing. I was thinking the same thing.

        • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:28 pm - Reply

          Let’s all be glad that it’s going to be an exciting winter better than it was last year.

        • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:37 pm - Reply

          Not trying to be disrespectful everyone has their own opinions.

  9. terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 6:16 pm - Reply

    I’m thinking 22 – 27 inches of snow this year. I don’t know why everybody keeps thinking we’re not going to get that much we don’t know that yet

    • Dale December 7, 2015 at 7:18 pm - Reply

      Because the pattern is warm Terry. Where is the arctic air? It bottled up north with no signs of coming this way. Gary could tell you 100″ of snow and you’d believe him. Take off you snowglasses and see the pattern. Lol you need to move to Canada.

      • terry December 7, 2015 at 7:50 pm - Reply

        Thxs any way but you must have not of watch his winter forecast December 3rd probley not and you dont really know whats going to happen either. Gary did Yeah that there will be enough cold air this winter for it to be snow fall. 23 inches of snow this winter. The pattern can be warm and we still get snow. The is showing signs of going AO negative on some of the models next week. We dont know that the arctic cold air is going to be bottled up there all winter long. When people hear that it’s going to be a warm pattern they take it and run with it

      • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 7:55 pm - Reply

        Dale lets just what and see what happens and then we can say what we wont to say lol. I think the Snow Gods are going to wake up soon so get ready for a exciting ride. My predictions on snow is 22 to 27.

      • HEAT MISER December 7, 2015 at 10:32 pm - Reply

        Fatal flaw in you logic…you don’t need arctic air for snow

        • terry mercer December 8, 2015 at 6:20 am - Reply

          That’s right .

        • Dale December 8, 2015 at 6:53 am - Reply

          Fatal Flaw- assuming that’s the only factor in producing snow. Lol calm down lil buddy.

        • Dale December 8, 2015 at 7:06 am - Reply

          Arctic air makes it easier to snow. Cold air holds less moisture…kinda thought you would know that.

          • AW December 8, 2015 at 7:21 am - Reply

            If cold air holds less moisture, then Arctic Air would hold less than that.

  10. MMike December 7, 2015 at 9:03 pm - Reply

    KSHB has 60 for a high next Monday, everyone else has mid 40’s….quite the spread.

    Terry, if you think no one knows what’s going to happen, how can you say 22-27 inches???

    In all honesty, with very wet storm potentials this winter and the concern for border line cold enough air, I would say the snowfall potential this year has a high bust possibility. If we get just enough cold with the larger storms and are lined up well, you can get some big wet snow storms with higher end totals. The same can happen the other direction and we can stay a cold rain for the majority of the storm systems.

    • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:23 pm - Reply

      60 on Monday does not mean a thing two or three days later after that.

  11. Mr. Pete December 7, 2015 at 9:35 pm - Reply

    It’s possible all this snow comes at once – one whopper in February.

    • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 11:20 pm - Reply

      We just just be ready for the roller coaster ride this winter

  12. Bill in Lawrence December 7, 2015 at 9:57 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good evening to you sir!!!

    Will be interesting to see if the AO does indeed go as negative next week as some of the ensembles are showing. I personally think that there is proof in the LRC for it go that negative as it went close to minus 2 in mid-October. If it does indeed go that negative next week then it could be interesting here for sure.

    Have a great night!!

    Bill in Lawrence

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