Some early morning showers in KC

/Some early morning showers in KC

Some early morning showers in KC

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

There is a fast moving disturbance moving across the plains this morning.  Here is a look at the radar near Kansas City at 7:30 AM

Screen Shot 2015-12-06 at 7.25.45 AM

A very warm weather pattern for December is setting up this week. It will likely be followed up by a winter change next week. There continue to be signs of an AO+ pattern which means the likelihood of a warm winter pattern. It may not be AO+ the entire winter, however, and we will continue to monitor this. Right now, if you look below at this map, there is the dip in the flow helping produce this fast moving storm and just a few showers early this Sunday morning. The main jet stream energy is spread out, and there is another stream across the Polar regions.

2

And, here is the latest AO Index chart from the Climate Prediction Center:

ao.sprd2

As you can see, just as this pattern set up and evolved the AO went positive. It is something to keep tracking. The latest GFS model came in with this following output solution for next week:

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_201

Now, be careful. The model came out with a solution that seems unlikely, but is fun to look at. Kansas City is the target on this model run, but will it even be there on the next model run. Let the ride begin!

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog!

Gary

2015-12-06T07:28:43+00:00 December 6th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. terry mercer December 6, 2015 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Gary is the High light ed area is that where pattern setting up?

  2. MMike December 6, 2015 at 9:59 am - Reply

    Okay, the winter forecast calls for near to above average temps for most of the nation including KC. What would be considered an accurate forecast?

    First off, my thought is that near to above average would mean above average temps for Dec. Jan. and Feb.

    If we end up average, is the forecast accurate…I say no
    If we end below average, clearly not accurate.

    Above average, what does that mean? 3, 4 , 5 6, degrees above average? Kind of vague

    The forecast calls for near to above average? I think that would suggest temps will be anywhere from just above average like .5 to as much as 2 degrees. If we end up right at average, is that an accurate forecast??

    If we go 3 degrees or higher above average, that would fall in the much above average and dropping the ‘near” in the forecast.

    What’s the bar set at to verify the forecast?? Hell, at this rate and the going forecast, we’re going to be 10 degrees above average this winter.

    • Gary December 6, 2015 at 11:16 am - Reply

      Mike,

      I am glad you are already concerned about verifying the 90 day forecast. We have a very good system, a mathematical formula to verify each one of these forecasts. If we forecast above average, which is what we are doing, and it is above average this 90 day stretch, then that will be worth 1 point. We have other criteria to look at, not just the temperatures. Now, when it comes to our 12-week forecasts, these are more important than just one broad general forecast. And, these are coming in accurate close to that 75% clip.

      Gary

  3. Morgan December 6, 2015 at 11:44 am - Reply

    It could be fun to track but with these marginal temperatures even snow seems iffy at best. These cold spells we’ll have seem to be transient as well which doesn’t bode well for an area that already lives on the rain snow line in a normal winter.

  4. Mr. Pete December 6, 2015 at 11:58 am - Reply

    Spring begins March 1 right?

    • Rockdoc December 6, 2015 at 12:22 pm - Reply

      I hope so ???⛵?. The storm coming our way next Monday does not look nice. GFS 12z run shows snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour from about 8am past noon! Surface ? about 30 mph as the low gets really wound up tight.

      Very odd thing though is that near surface temps start out in mid 30s with near 40s surrounding the KC area, and then as the surface low progresses NE and KC is on NW to W side a pocket of colder air develops around KC and it drops below 32. However, the 540 thickness line is still off to the west-northwest. Perhaps Gary can chime in here to walk us through the dynamics? The only other thing I’ve noticed is that the surface low and upper low start to converge with increasing vort so perhaps with this the temps drop as the noose tightens so to speak.

  5. terry mercer December 6, 2015 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    Bring on the snow Guys and for those that those that don’t believe it can happen to bad lol. We dont know if we live on the snow/rain line it can set up anywhere in the in the states and we dont know yet what the temperatures are going to be at the time. Thats how I feel about and sure there are more that feel the same way too. But everyone has there opinion on what might happen. So let’s enjoy this exciting winter here this year and be happy.

    • Alex Pickman December 6, 2015 at 10:15 pm - Reply

      Terry if it is all rain, you won’t be happy

      • CRW December 6, 2015 at 10:49 pm - Reply

        The AO and NAO are solidly positive. The verdict: cold, cold RAIN.

      • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:58 am - Reply

        We dont know that yet whats going to happen. Bring on the snow

  6. Morgan December 7, 2015 at 12:06 am - Reply

    Storm is way north as expected. Marginal temperatures don’t support snow more times than not around these parts. Just a cold rain with a sky high AO as we’ve seen before.

    • terry mercer December 7, 2015 at 9:57 am - Reply

      Lol lol will see

  7. Kurt December 7, 2015 at 4:02 am - Reply

    Nothing wrong with another soaking rain, this weather is awesome and to see green grass in December without all the grime from melting snow and salt is something different.

    I enjoy snow too, but it’s so much easier to get around. Road crews are able to work on construction projects too.

    However, not sure what El Niño influenced going into summer if it’s still strong. But wow we might have some scorching heat if temps are 29 degrees above normal in these warmer parts of the cycle

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