Saturday Morning Thoughts On A Big Change

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Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We are in the calmer phase of this year’s weather pattern. I am not sure if these will be the names going forward, calmer & stormier, but it seems to fit right now. The calmer phase features more west to east flow and weaker storm systems. The stormier phase of the pattern actually is the dominant #1 pattern as discussed in the winter forecast and it likely is a 30 to 35 day stretch that will begin in ten days. Right now, there is a more west to east flow and there is a weak system approaching the plains today:

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This plains system digs a bit with a a vorticity maximum forecast to track over southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri. If there were Arctic Air in place, then we would be likely talking about a 1 to 3 inch snow storm, but there is no Arctic Air in place. Take a look at the precipitation forecast for early tomorrow morning on the 6 AM Sunday surface map.

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As you look at the map above there is one big takeaway. The only blue dotted line is visible near the northwestern corner of Wyoming. This is the 540 thickness line, the 50/50 line for the snow/rain changeover in locations at 1,000 feet or lower.  A little band of precipitation is forecast to develop near the Missouri River Valley, and thickness values are likely at 541, literally 1 decameter above the 540 line. It’s something to monitor closely early on Sunday.

Within the next ten days a rather big change takes place:

 

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Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Why is it that the 7 day on KSHB – early yesterday it said all 60s this week near 70 on Friday, then last night it said all 50s, now it says all 60s again?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

There are different Alice’s on here?

Alice
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Alice

Trying this again…once more my comment awaiting moderation….. I think it is my smiley emoticon holding it up ?? Whenever I use them it does not post….wonder if it is my ipad browser ?

Rockdoc……
The 19th ? My birthday
I wouldn’t mind a nice snowfall…..it has been several years since snow has fallen on my BD.

Dale
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Dale

Alice, are you back for good now? Lol I thought the second and third times you left were your last times heee.

Alice
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Alice

Dale…you too ?
Why can’t you, Alex, Heat and Dobber just drop it.
I am talking about weather….., and whether it is my last time or not is none of your concern. Please just let me be. Let me comment about weather without you all making snide remarks about me leaving.

Gary, can you please help with this. I apologized fir what I said the other day.

Dobber
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Dobber

Too many emotions luvsno

rickmckc
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rickmckc

Alice, it’s the emoticon that’s causing the problem. Same thing happened to me on the previous blog.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Looking at todays 12z GFS run there may be an even larger snowfall event coming our way on Saturday the 19th. Another surface low spinning our way with big dip in jet stream over the central plains and decent vort. Surface temps in 20s so are supportive of snow?. This being said, since this is pushing the model out 348 hours things could change! Time to check late October/early November weather maps for similar patterns! LRC is taking shape⛄

Alice
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Alice

Rockdoc……
The 19th ? My birthday 🙂
I wouldn’t mind a nice snowfall…..it has been several years since snow has fallen on my BD.

Scott in Louisburg
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Scott in Louisburg

I chose Dec 18th for the snowflake contest based on a system that came through at the end of October on the 30-31. I was just guessing at that point the we would have around a 50 day cycle. Looks to have some potential if he storm on the 16th doesn’t come through!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I plan on mowing and mulching all winter. Gary will it be windy all weekend?

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary I was wondering about my question I know I couldn’t remember so can you tell me Thanks.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy beautiful Saturday morning to you sir!! It will be very interesting to see what this second cylce of the LRC will bring. Looking at the AO, there is still ensemble concensus for the AO to go negative and maybe even susbtantially negative during the beginning of this stormy period…similar to what we saw in mid October (I think this is that period coming back when the AO was negative for about a week??) and it looks like it may stay that way for 2-3 days which is different than the other dips in this LRC. Of course the… Read more »

weatherby tom
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weatherby tom

High’s in the upper 50’s and low 60’s all next week – sounds good to me, now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go mow my lawn for the last time this year (hopefully)

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary you’re talking about a big ridge developing is that part of the LRC pattern if I remember right it was when it was setting up for this year LRC. As fast as that develops doesn’t go away almost as fast it develops in the pattern?