Saturday Morning Thoughts On A Big Change

/Saturday Morning Thoughts On A Big Change

Saturday Morning Thoughts On A Big Change

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We are in the calmer phase of this year’s weather pattern. I am not sure if these will be the names going forward, calmer & stormier, but it seems to fit right now. The calmer phase features more west to east flow and weaker storm systems. The stormier phase of the pattern actually is the dominant #1 pattern as discussed in the winter forecast and it likely is a 30 to 35 day stretch that will begin in ten days. Right now, there is a more west to east flow and there is a weak system approaching the plains today:


This plains system digs a bit with a a vorticity maximum forecast to track over southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri. If there were Arctic Air in place, then we would be likely talking about a 1 to 3 inch snow storm, but there is no Arctic Air in place. Take a look at the precipitation forecast for early tomorrow morning on the 6 AM Sunday surface map.


As you look at the map above there is one big takeaway. The only blue dotted line is visible near the northwestern corner of Wyoming. This is the 540 thickness line, the 50/50 line for the snow/rain changeover in locations at 1,000 feet or lower.  A little band of precipitation is forecast to develop near the Missouri River Valley, and thickness values are likely at 541, literally 1 decameter above the 540 line. It’s something to monitor closely early on Sunday.

Within the next ten days a rather big change takes place:








2015-12-05T08:09:25+00:00December 5th, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. terry mercer December 5, 2015 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Gary you’re talking about a big ridge developing is that part of the LRC pattern if I remember right it was when it was setting up for this year LRC. As fast as that develops doesn’t go away almost as fast it develops in the pattern?

  2. weatherby tom December 5, 2015 at 9:48 am - Reply

    High’s in the upper 50’s and low 60’s all next week – sounds good to me, now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go mow my lawn for the last time this year (hopefully)

    • Gary December 5, 2015 at 9:51 am - Reply

      I know, I just picked up the doggy poo all over my yard and noticed the grass may need to be mowed again.


  3. Bill in Lawrence December 5, 2015 at 10:44 am - Reply


    Happy beautiful Saturday morning to you sir!!

    It will be very interesting to see what this second cylce of the LRC will bring. Looking at the AO, there is still ensemble concensus for the AO to go negative and maybe even susbtantially negative during the beginning of this stormy period…similar to what we saw in mid October (I think this is that period coming back when the AO was negative for about a week??) and it looks like it may stay that way for 2-3 days which is different than the other dips in this LRC. Of course the major question becomes…is that forecast correct? There are 2-3 ensembles showing neutral then bam right back up to the positve which would match the other dips we have seen in November. We know this “stormier part” is coming the question I think is if the AO can go as negative as we saw in Mid-October for the beginning of it….these two combined in December can have huge differences than in mid-October.

    The good thing is we have 1-2 more chances until Spring for this part to produce for us crazy winter weather fans. If it doesn’t in this cycle maybe it will ine cycle 3 or early cycle 4. For sure, this part of the cycle is our best chance and there was evidence in cycle 1 of the AO being negative/neutral enough to produce especially in the winter months. I can remember 1989-1990 winter….November was incredibly warm(I was bass fishing in shorts and T-shirt at 7 in the morning) with very positve AO’s and then of course we know what happened in December that year….and then the cold never returned with any force the rest of the winter. That year cycle 2 produced but not cycle 3 as the AO stayed more like November. As a winter lover one can hope that cycle 2 or 3 produces in this LRC.

    At the end of the day we live in KC….this is not a winter paradise here….we have as many warmish days than very cold days in any given winter….whatever we can get the winter lover has to take and smile!! 🙂

    Time to get out and enjoy these next 5-7 days…like I said yesterday…if you can’t beat them…join them!!!! It is going to be beautiful…I have been lucky enough living outside of town that we have had several mornings in the lower 20’s so I don’t have to mow :-)….I can concentrate on other projects and maybe a little bass fishing!!! 🙂

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Lawrence

    • Gary December 5, 2015 at 11:57 am - Reply


      The latest GFS run is pretty exciting for a major winter storm around the 16th. It is targeting Iowa and Nebraska. It is also looking AO positive. So, as you discussed, if we can get it to even slightly AO negative, then that storm would track a bit farther south and our area would then be targeted.

      Let the fun begin. Have a great day!

      • Rockdoc December 5, 2015 at 2:52 pm - Reply

        I noticed the same thing. Storm tracks from southeast Colorado heading northeast towards Nebraska and Iowa. We may get clipped but the temps may not cooperate and we get rain instead. The storm showing up on the 19th looks to be in a slightly better position, but that far out things can change.

  4. terry mercer December 5, 2015 at 11:01 am - Reply

    Gary I was wondering about my question I know I couldn’t remember so can you tell me Thanks.

    • Gary December 5, 2015 at 11:58 am - Reply

      I’m not sure what you are asking?

      • terry mercer December 5, 2015 at 1:08 pm - Reply

        Gary it’s the very top question I was asking about the big rigid developing

        • rickmckc December 5, 2015 at 2:38 pm - Reply

          Hey Terry, I also tried to understand your question at the top and could not. Can I suggest that you take a little bit more time and think how it might sound to someone else? Maybe even write it first in Notepad, then when it is clear, copy and paste into the blog.

  5. Mr. Pete December 5, 2015 at 11:59 am - Reply

    I plan on mowing and mulching all winter. Gary will it be windy all weekend?

  6. Rockdoc December 5, 2015 at 12:47 pm - Reply

    Looking at todays 12z GFS run there may be an even larger snowfall event coming our way on Saturday the 19th. Another surface low spinning our way with big dip in jet stream over the central plains and decent vort. Surface temps in 20s so are supportive of snow?. This being said, since this is pushing the model out 348 hours things could change! Time to check late October/early November weather maps for similar patterns! LRC is taking shape⛄

    • Alice December 5, 2015 at 1:27 pm - Reply

      The 19th ? My birthday 🙂
      I wouldn’t mind a nice snowfall… has been several years since snow has fallen on my BD.

    • Scott in Louisburg December 5, 2015 at 3:05 pm - Reply

      I chose Dec 18th for the snowflake contest based on a system that came through at the end of October on the 30-31. I was just guessing at that point the we would have around a 50 day cycle. Looks to have some potential if he storm on the 16th doesn’t come through!

      • Gary December 5, 2015 at 4:53 pm - Reply


        Excellent! Now, let’s see how it really sets up. It is nice to see others trying to use the LRC to make these forecasts. Every cycle is different, even though we know it will be closely related to the other cycles. Good luck.


  7. Alice December 5, 2015 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    Trying this again…once more my comment awaiting moderation….. I think it is my smiley emoticon holding it up ?? Whenever I use them it does not post….wonder if it is my ipad browser ?

    The 19th ? My birthday
    I wouldn’t mind a nice snowfall… has been several years since snow has fallen on my BD.

    • Dale December 5, 2015 at 1:43 pm - Reply

      Alice, are you back for good now? Lol I thought the second and third times you left were your last times heee.

      • Alice December 5, 2015 at 2:25 pm - Reply

        Dale…you too ?
        Why can’t you, Alex, Heat and Dobber just drop it.
        I am talking about weather….., and whether it is my last time or not is none of your concern. Please just let me be. Let me comment about weather without you all making snide remarks about me leaving.

        Gary, can you please help with this. I apologized fir what I said the other day.

        • Dobber December 5, 2015 at 4:55 pm - Reply

          Too many emotions luvsno

          • Gary December 5, 2015 at 11:48 pm - Reply

            I agree. Alice, just take a deep breath. Take it in, and enjoy this weather ride we are all on.


            • Alice December 6, 2015 at 8:42 am - Reply

              Thanks for nothing Gary..
              I was not emotional on my first comment (about weather !) …now you defend those who put me down ?
              I will be contacting NBC 41.
              I came here in good faith this time…no emotions, just weather. I apologized for my comment about your enthusiasm, but that was not acknowledged by you. You take offense so easily when people question the LRC….you are the Professional, not me.
              I have canceled my 2020.
              There is another met in town who has a wonderful blog. He will be my go-to from now on.
              Have fun boys…because that is what you all are. Boys.

    • rickmckc December 5, 2015 at 2:36 pm - Reply

      Alice, it’s the emoticon that’s causing the problem. Same thing happened to me on the previous blog.

  8. Mr. Pete December 5, 2015 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    There are different Alice’s on here?

  9. f00dl3 December 6, 2015 at 7:03 am - Reply

    Why is it that the 7 day on KSHB – early yesterday it said all 60s this week near 70 on Friday, then last night it said all 50s, now it says all 60s again?

    • Gary December 6, 2015 at 7:32 am - Reply

      I obviously need to have a discussion with my weather team. I see 60s, and we will get it more consistent. If you just use the models they will convince you to go conservative.


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