Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We are in the calmer phase of this year’s weather pattern. I am not sure if these will be the names going forward, calmer & stormier, but it seems to fit right now. The calmer phase features more west to east flow and weaker storm systems. The stormier phase of the pattern actually is the dominant #1 pattern as discussed in the winter forecast and it likely is a 30 to 35 day stretch that will begin in ten days. Right now, there is a more west to east flow and there is a weak system approaching the plains today:


This plains system digs a bit with a a vorticity maximum forecast to track over southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri. If there were Arctic Air in place, then we would be likely talking about a 1 to 3 inch snow storm, but there is no Arctic Air in place. Take a look at the precipitation forecast for early tomorrow morning on the 6 AM Sunday surface map.


As you look at the map above there is one big takeaway. The only blue dotted line is visible near the northwestern corner of Wyoming. This is the 540 thickness line, the 50/50 line for the snow/rain changeover in locations at 1,000 feet or lower.  A little band of precipitation is forecast to develop near the Missouri River Valley, and thickness values are likely at 541, literally 1 decameter above the 540 line. It’s something to monitor closely early on Sunday.

Within the next ten days a rather big change takes place: