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Good Friday Night In The Big Town Bloggers,

LRC Update:  I have been forecasting using the assumption of a 49 day cycle. This is why I picked December 16th for the snowflake contest to end. Well, the models are now hinting strongly that the pattern will produce that set-up I was looking for, but it’s still 11 days to 12 days away. Take a look:

Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 5.38.22 PM

You are looking at the 276 hour forecast. First of all, it looks quite similar to the late October set-up, and I had been looking for this the past few days, and now it’s showing up. It is clear evidence that we are moving into LRC Cycle 2, and the stormy part of the pattern that will last around 30 to 35 days is about to begin.  That is snow in KC and on the 16th of December. I may have picked the right date. I am sure you know how this works. It is showing up now, but there will be some complex forecasting problems when it approaches. I just have confidence it will be there as it fits the LRC. Our first big fit that we have fun at this early stage.

Have a great evening. Thank you for your participation in the winter forecast.

Gary

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RickMcKC
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RickMcKC

Looks like the 0z GFS continues the trend Gary showed above.

I dunno, seems like Gary had a bit of an edge on the snowflake contest since he already knew the cycle length and we didn’t.

Hmmmm.

Just kidding. 🙂

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Another decent day tomorrow to clean up the leaves.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

How dare you doubt Gary’s forecast for snow on Dec 16!!!!!!

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary bring on the snow this winter.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Dale we dont know that there will be a lack of cold this winter. Did you see Gary’s winter forecast on December 3rd? You probley didn’t so believe what you wont to see lol and Gary did say that we will enough cold air this winter for snow events.

Kyle
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Kyle

That’s just it we don’t know. We know the broad features and when storms are likely to return. However, will they continue to favor the same track as the first cycle? How much cold air will be available?

There is no denying your enthusiasm Terry but the 23 inches may be plus or minus 5 to 20 inches region wide.

I’d lean toward 15 to 20 inches, with parts of Northwest Iowa getting 50 plus inches this winter.

That’s just my guess.

Dale
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Dale

Lack of cold air. We need to ship Terry and Heat to Omaha so they can see some snow action LOL

Dale
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Dale

Lack of cold air = a cold rain Gary. Different storm, same results.

MMike
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MMike

okay…maybe we’ll turn the corner by then

Come on Snow…make your first appearance….we’re waiting!!!!!!

stl78
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stl78

Yeah mm, that’s what I said earlier too. Snow to our nw and rain snow mix in and around kc

MMike
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MMike

all rain Gary……