Winter Forecast: The 2015-2016 In-Depth Winter Forecast

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Good afternoon Weather2020 bloggers,

We are releasing our winter forecast here and then sending it out in other social media platforms later this evening. There is a lot to go over, but let me begin by introducing you to our growing team of meteorologists. They have all had input into this developing weather pattern that we are still identifying at this moment.

Meteorologist Jeff Penner and I have worked together for going on 24 years now.  Meteorologist Doug Heady works at KOAM-TV in the Joplin market. He calls the LRC, the Heady Pattern, and regardless of what it is called someday in the future, we are on the same page.  He has been meticulously working on the cycling pattern for over 15 years now and he has added a lot of insight.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony works as Chief Meteorologist at KJRH-TV in Tulsa, OK.  He has been using the LRC for years and has been bringing this breakthrough technology to the Tulsa television market making accurate predictions weeks to months before storm systems hit.  And, meteorologist Eswar Iyer, a University of Oklahoma grad-student is about to receive his Masters Degree in 2016. He has been forecasting for Weather2020 the past few years. We have a growing team of five meteorologists, a great technology team, and some new business insight that we will be announcing sometime soon.

Our team is working hard as we attempt to solve this complex atmospheric puzzle. We have breakthrough technology that we are sharing with all of you, and we thank you for your participation in this LRC Forecast Experience Blog.  Let me begin by some statements from Jeff Penner.

Jeff recently took a trip across Kansas to Colorado and experienced water on wheat fields, a rare site over western Kansas. It is usually quite dry at this time of the year.  From the water on the wheat fields to severe weather outbreaks, a 20″ blizzard across parts of western Kansas, and a major ice storm from parts of Oklahoma north into central Kansas, this has active beginning to what will likely be a wild winter ride.  This all happened in the past 30 days.  Jeff Penner, “It has been quite a two month period in the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas, since the new LRC weather pattern has been setting up. Precipitation has been plentiful in this normally arid part of the country this time of year. Here are some rainfall totals between October 1st and November 30th 

  • Dodge City, KS: 5.19” (208% of average)
  • Wichita, KS: 5.25” (125% of average)
  • Amarillo, TX: 4.98” (202% of average)
  • Oklahoma City, OK: 8.02” (141% of average)

This is what has already happened. Now, what is going to happen in the next three months, through winter, then through spring, and into summer?  Here is what we are still working on and expect in-depth details on the following topics during the next few weeks:

  • We will go into each region of the United States and make specific forecasts
  • We will identify the cycle length of this pattern
  • We will get more specific predicting the dates of when storm systems, cold outbreaks, and warmer periods will hit
  • We will look ahead to the spring severe weather season
  • We will have a skier forecast
  • Agriculture and energy forecasts are being produced now through our Weather2020 business model

And, one last thing. Over 3 million views of our 12 week forecasts and videos have been made through the popular 1Weather app. This has previously only been available on Android devices. These will now be available on IOS before Christmas. We will keep you updated.

Let’s start with a video of this developing pattern:

Here is your winter forecast:

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I will be adding some concluding statements later on this evening.

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience blog. The winter ride is beginning. Let us know what you think of this in-depth winter weather forecast.

Gary

 

 

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Alice
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Alice

On the NOW, JD said to Justin, “You may have to mow your lawn before you have to shovel any snow”

Brian
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Brian

However jd is not a believer in the lrc.

Alice
Guest
Alice

Brian,
How do you know what JD believes…….I have not seen or heard him say anything against the LRC. Just because he does not mention the LRC does not mean he does not believe in it.

Dobber
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Dobber

He likes to edit posts on old 41 blog. Remember all that nonsense?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The thing about the studded bicycle tires is on mornings where there is patchy black ice they are useful but in all honesty you can’t ride hard on dry pavement. We need a good snow so I can let those studded tires rip!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Friday to you sir!!! First of all, I would like to say thank you very much for the winter forecast discussion you posted. It is so very much appreciated; you have so many irons in the fire that it is really pretty cool (or to use an old phrase…tight) that you take the time to share this with everybody on the blog!!! I think it is going to be very interesting to follow the AO over the next few days. The past few day’s ensemble forecast have it going to at least neutral with several taking it to… Read more »

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Exciting winter this year cant wait for winter to start. Just hope we dont have Ice storm this winter. But like I said before your body does have their own opinion

stl78
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stl78

I sure do hope we have a good snow storm or two for ya Terry.

stl78
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stl78

Looks like a cold rain/snow mix with snow to our nw. Alot of time tho. I think des Moines may be in the sweet spot this yr. What do u think gary?

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary said that we are in the right Spot this year for some good storms. He said we expect enough cold this winter to be all snow. Its better than the last few years.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think one thing that is certain is next summer is going to be very dry at times. During the part of the pattern that is producing the west coast troughs right now, those storms that dive into Cali now will only dive into Washington during the summer months, and the jet stream will stay very well to our north for 30 day stretches. This will allow the anticyclone to become quite strong.

Jeff Wichitaks
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Jeff Wichitaks

Gary if you have the time would you be able to help your friends down south some. 🙂 Wichita ks have any idea on snow total for winter or are we just going to get rain or ice storms. thanks.

Rodney
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Rodney

Gary, I know it may be a little early but what are your thoughts on the chances of having a white Christmas? I know with above average temps & with not many Arctic outbreaks expected would we need a snowfall within a couple of days before Dec 25 for it to most likely stick around on the ground?? I really enjoyed your in-depth winter forecast & read your blog daily each morning. Keep up the great work, I’m a firm believer in the LRC.

Alice
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Alice

Rodney, On the 12 week forecast (at top of page put in your zip code)….. This is for KC metro….. December 20 Chances of Rain and Snow 40°F / 23°F If you have vacation or wedding plans in Dodge City, Wichita, Topeka, Kansas City, Columbia, Springfield, St. Louis, Des Moines, or Omaha, there is a the chance of a bigger storm system this week, mainly early in the period. Colder air will be heading south as the system moves in from the west, setting up the chance for a variety of precipitation across this region. Snow accumulation is possible north… Read more »

SnowDays
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SnowDays

Gary,

Thank you for the information! As a teacher, I have to say I appreciate the format and thought you did a great job of making it accessible, which I know is not an easy task.
I’m looking forward to following the blog, not only for the snow day potential, but for my mowing business in the spring. Sounds like there will be plenty of action!

Wes
Guest

As always, great break-down of our weather pattern and the LRC! I sense a very busy severe weather season on the way from Texas through the Central Plains and Ozarks. Thank you guys for all your hard work! 🙂

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, can you clarify the start date of cycle#1, and the start date of cycle #2? It appears that cycle #1 lasts for about 30 days – correct, followed by cycle #2 which lasts for 2-3 weeks. This would give us an overall cycle length of ~45 days to ~51 days. Please verify if you could just in case I misunderstood.

Thanks for your teams hard work, and Sunny too…woof, woof:))

Alice
Guest
Alice

Gary,
In the bottom graphic…Kansas City Snowfall….it says “we are forecasting above average rain and snow this winter, with 23″ forecast to fall by April”.

Just to be clear…for Terry and snowlovers …So, that 23″ is including rain, not just snow ??
I know you said 23″ of snow…but that sentence in the graphic makes it sound like rain is included. Which, we already had 5 inches of rain in JoCo, just in November.

Mike
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Mike

Looks like everyone should go and get their lawn mowers tuned up. Be prepared for an early Spring! The grass around town is still green. RIP Winter.

Happy Mowing!
Mike

Michael W.
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Michael W.

Enjoyed the info. It looks like there may be some winter action here in Chicagoland.

I used to think you were describing repeating “days” from cycle to cycle. I think I’m finally understanding that you’re describing recurring features.
Michael

stl78
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stl78

Where u located Michael? I’m workin in willow Springs at the moment. I spent my youth here and just happen to b back here for work

Michael W.
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Michael W.

I’m about an hour west of downtown Chicago in Wheaton. Recently moved here.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

I just hope for at least two or three decent snow storms. Ice sucks and nobody likes that, so hopefully we can avoid that.

Kathy
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Kathy

Thanks so much for explaining this year’s LRC. Unlike Terry, I am not a snow-ice-lover (I have a life-long injury from the snow/ice and fear snowy days) , but I do live for active weather and enjoy reading on this blog how it all comes together. Since you are from Southern CA, and because I have friends there, do you know why these troughs or low pressure areas have not impacted them as much as us? I am guessing that long-term wave over the Rockies has something to do with it, but in this pattern, can you see a potential… Read more »

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary Thanks and 23 inches of snow is a good bet this year. In your preliminary winter forecast you was predicting in track #1 We have a couple a very good chance of getting a couple of 5 to 10 inch Snowstorms in storm track # one for us this winter of it getting exciting. Gary what you’re take on that ? That was in your primary forecast that was in your peliminary forecast?

MMIke
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MMIke

Excellent work LRC team.

One problem, you didn’t lower the snowfall forecast. TOO WARM>>>>> We may very well challenge that all time record low of 3.9 inches about 5 years ago.

Lots of rain and some decent icing events…..

GO CHIEFS!!!

terry mercer
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terry mercer

Gary said he didn’t see you need need and lowering his snow forecast. 23 inches of Snow. As we get deeper in to winter the cold should be more available then. He mention that to one of blogger in December 1st blog. Yes in did say we do have a good chance of one major Ice storm to.

Rodney
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Rodney

I was that blogger. I’m so glad he stuck to his guns & kept the 23″ forecast the same. Winter is my favorite season & I love snow, the more the better. Hoping for a big 10″ + snow this winter.

Jeff Wichitaks
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Jeff Wichitaks

You know we can get a big snow every now and then but I think when he says warmer over all is what snow you do get will just not stay on the ground long as it will warm up fast.

terry mercer
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terry mercer

But we know that everyone has their own opinion on what may happen. But in 97/98 it was a warmer winter that you’re too and still got and still got 19.6 inches that year

DoBBEr
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DoBBEr

.

MikeL
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MikeL

Gary, thanks for posting this! Whether we have much snow or not this looks like we have all sorts of active weather this winter into spring and beyond. Looks to be pretty exciting for weather enthusiasts! It’s also nice to see a WESTERN trough dominate the pattern for once instead of the much too frequent Eastern troughs!

stl78
Guest
stl78

Thank u Gary and team for all your hard work and efforts!