Winter Forecast: The 2015-2016 In-Depth Winter Forecast

/Winter Forecast: The 2015-2016 In-Depth Winter Forecast

Winter Forecast: The 2015-2016 In-Depth Winter Forecast

Good afternoon Weather2020 bloggers,

We are releasing our winter forecast here and then sending it out in other social media platforms later this evening. There is a lot to go over, but let me begin by introducing you to our growing team of meteorologists. They have all had input into this developing weather pattern that we are still identifying at this moment.

Meteorologist Jeff Penner and I have worked together for going on 24 years now.  Meteorologist Doug Heady works at KOAM-TV in the Joplin market. He calls the LRC, the Heady Pattern, and regardless of what it is called someday in the future, we are on the same page.  He has been meticulously working on the cycling pattern for over 15 years now and he has added a lot of insight.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony works as Chief Meteorologist at KJRH-TV in Tulsa, OK.  He has been using the LRC for years and has been bringing this breakthrough technology to the Tulsa television market making accurate predictions weeks to months before storm systems hit.  And, meteorologist Eswar Iyer, a University of Oklahoma grad-student is about to receive his Masters Degree in 2016. He has been forecasting for Weather2020 the past few years. We have a growing team of five meteorologists, a great technology team, and some new business insight that we will be announcing sometime soon.

Our team is working hard as we attempt to solve this complex atmospheric puzzle. We have breakthrough technology that we are sharing with all of you, and we thank you for your participation in this LRC Forecast Experience Blog.  Let me begin by some statements from Jeff Penner.

Jeff recently took a trip across Kansas to Colorado and experienced water on wheat fields, a rare site over western Kansas. It is usually quite dry at this time of the year.  From the water on the wheat fields to severe weather outbreaks, a 20″ blizzard across parts of western Kansas, and a major ice storm from parts of Oklahoma north into central Kansas, this has active beginning to what will likely be a wild winter ride.  This all happened in the past 30 days.  Jeff Penner, “It has been quite a two month period in the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas, since the new LRC weather pattern has been setting up. Precipitation has been plentiful in this normally arid part of the country this time of year. Here are some rainfall totals between October 1st and November 30th 

  • Dodge City, KS: 5.19” (208% of average)
  • Wichita, KS: 5.25” (125% of average)
  • Amarillo, TX: 4.98” (202% of average)
  • Oklahoma City, OK: 8.02” (141% of average)

This is what has already happened. Now, what is going to happen in the next three months, through winter, then through spring, and into summer?  Here is what we are still working on and expect in-depth details on the following topics during the next few weeks:

  • We will go into each region of the United States and make specific forecasts
  • We will identify the cycle length of this pattern
  • We will get more specific predicting the dates of when storm systems, cold outbreaks, and warmer periods will hit
  • We will look ahead to the spring severe weather season
  • We will have a skier forecast
  • Agriculture and energy forecasts are being produced now through our Weather2020 business model

And, one last thing. Over 3 million views of our 12 week forecasts and videos have been made through the popular 1Weather app. This has previously only been available on Android devices. These will now be available on IOS before Christmas. We will keep you updated.

Let’s start with a video of this developing pattern:

Here is your winter forecast:

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I will be adding some concluding statements later on this evening.

Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience blog. The winter ride is beginning. Let us know what you think of this in-depth winter weather forecast.

Gary

 

 

2015-12-03T12:22:23+00:00 December 3rd, 2015|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. stl78 December 3, 2015 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Thank u Gary and team for all your hard work and efforts!

  2. MikeL December 3, 2015 at 1:14 pm - Reply

    Gary, thanks for posting this! Whether we have much snow or not this looks like we have all sorts of active weather this winter into spring and beyond. Looks to be pretty exciting for weather enthusiasts! It’s also nice to see a WESTERN trough dominate the pattern for once instead of the much too frequent Eastern troughs!

  3. MMIke December 3, 2015 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Excellent work LRC team.

    One problem, you didn’t lower the snowfall forecast. TOO WARM>>>>> We may very well challenge that all time record low of 3.9 inches about 5 years ago.

    Lots of rain and some decent icing events…..

    GO CHIEFS!!!

    • terry mercer December 3, 2015 at 1:46 pm - Reply

      Gary said he didn’t see you need need and lowering his snow forecast. 23 inches of Snow. As we get deeper in to winter the cold should be more available then. He mention that to one of blogger in December 1st blog. Yes in did say we do have a good chance of one major Ice storm to.

      • Rodney December 3, 2015 at 4:32 pm - Reply

        I was that blogger. I’m so glad he stuck to his guns & kept the 23″ forecast the same. Winter is my favorite season & I love snow, the more the better. Hoping for a big 10″ + snow this winter.

        • Jeff Wichitaks December 3, 2015 at 11:50 pm - Reply

          You know we can get a big snow every now and then but I think when he says warmer over all is what snow you do get will just not stay on the ground long as it will warm up fast.

    • terry mercer December 3, 2015 at 1:54 pm - Reply

      But we know that everyone has their own opinion on what may happen. But in 97/98 it was a warmer winter that you’re too and still got and still got 19.6 inches that year

    • DoBBEr December 3, 2015 at 3:42 pm - Reply

      .

  4. terry mercer December 3, 2015 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    Gary Thanks and 23 inches of snow is a good bet this year. In your preliminary winter forecast you was predicting in track #1 We have a couple a very good chance of getting a couple of 5 to 10 inch Snowstorms in storm track # one for us this winter of it getting exciting. Gary what you’re take on that ? That was in your primary forecast that was in your peliminary forecast?

  5. Kathy December 3, 2015 at 2:48 pm - Reply

    Thanks so much for explaining this year’s LRC. Unlike Terry, I am not a snow-ice-lover (I have a life-long injury from the snow/ice and fear snowy days) , but I do live for active weather and enjoy reading on this blog how it all comes together. Since you are from Southern CA, and because I have friends there, do you know why these troughs or low pressure areas have not impacted them as much as us? I am guessing that long-term wave over the Rockies has something to do with it, but in this pattern, can you see a potential for them to ever get some needed rain?

    • Gary December 3, 2015 at 4:19 pm - Reply

      Kathy,

      The storm systems thus far have slid in from the Pacific across northern California. So far they have missed Southern California, and it is something to pay close attention to.

      Gary

  6. HEAT MISER December 3, 2015 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    I just hope for at least two or three decent snow storms. Ice sucks and nobody likes that, so hopefully we can avoid that.

  7. Michael W. December 3, 2015 at 3:28 pm - Reply

    Enjoyed the info. It looks like there may be some winter action here in Chicagoland.

    I used to think you were describing repeating “days” from cycle to cycle. I think I’m finally understanding that you’re describing recurring features.
    Michael

    • stl78 December 3, 2015 at 3:35 pm - Reply

      Where u located Michael? I’m workin in willow Springs at the moment. I spent my youth here and just happen to b back here for work

      • Michael W. December 4, 2015 at 7:38 pm - Reply

        I’m about an hour west of downtown Chicago in Wheaton. Recently moved here.

  8. Mike December 3, 2015 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Looks like everyone should go and get their lawn mowers tuned up. Be prepared for an early Spring! The grass around town is still green. RIP Winter.

    Happy Mowing!
    Mike

  9. Alice December 3, 2015 at 5:06 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    In the bottom graphic…Kansas City Snowfall….it says “we are forecasting above average rain and snow this winter, with 23″ forecast to fall by April”.

    Just to be clear…for Terry and snowlovers …So, that 23″ is including rain, not just snow ??
    I know you said 23″ of snow…but that sentence in the graphic makes it sound like rain is included. Which, we already had 5 inches of rain in JoCo, just in November.

    • Gary December 3, 2015 at 10:54 pm - Reply

      Alice,

      The forecast is for above average rain and above average snow. The snow forecast is 23″ which does not include the additional rainfall.

      Gary

  10. Rockdoc December 3, 2015 at 7:17 pm - Reply

    Gary, can you clarify the start date of cycle#1, and the start date of cycle #2? It appears that cycle #1 lasts for about 30 days – correct, followed by cycle #2 which lasts for 2-3 weeks. This would give us an overall cycle length of ~45 days to ~51 days. Please verify if you could just in case I misunderstood.

    Thanks for your teams hard work, and Sunny too…woof, woof:))

    • Gary December 3, 2015 at 10:53 pm - Reply

      We have yet to see the beginning of cycle two Rock. We should be able to identify this in the next two weeks. Remember, this is something that the rest of the world has yet to see. It’s a breakthrough technology. Now, with this said, in your statement you mentioned 51 days. Right now, we are narrowing in on the 49 to 51 day cycle, but it’s just still a bit early. We can’t rely on these error ridden computer models.

      Gary

      • Rockdoc December 4, 2015 at 7:27 am - Reply

        Good Morning Gary. Thank you for taking time to respond. I guess I should have worded my question differently in terms of calling the mini cycles as cycle #1, cycle #2. These are really 2 patterns within the larger cycle. So I guess it would be pattern #1 and pattern #2. Pretty cool stuff too. I think the pattern that will cause you met guys the biggest headaches will be pattern #1, especially if those closed off Lows form and then figuring out the tracks they take since this will determine who gets what. Have a great Friday?

        • Gary December 4, 2015 at 7:57 am - Reply

          Rock,

          I am seeing around a 30 day stretch of very active weather, and a 20 day stretch of quieter weather, what we are in right now. These are the two major phases of the overall pattern for our part of the nation.

  11. Wes December 3, 2015 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    As always, great break-down of our weather pattern and the LRC! I sense a very busy severe weather season on the way from Texas through the Central Plains and Ozarks. Thank you guys for all your hard work! 🙂

  12. SnowDays December 3, 2015 at 8:05 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    Thank you for the information! As a teacher, I have to say I appreciate the format and thought you did a great job of making it accessible, which I know is not an easy task.
    I’m looking forward to following the blog, not only for the snow day potential, but for my mowing business in the spring. Sounds like there will be plenty of action!

  13. Rodney December 3, 2015 at 11:07 pm - Reply

    Gary, I know it may be a little early but what are your thoughts on the chances of having a white Christmas? I know with above average temps & with not many Arctic outbreaks expected would we need a snowfall within a couple of days before Dec 25 for it to most likely stick around on the ground?? I really enjoyed your in-depth winter forecast & read your blog daily each morning. Keep up the great work, I’m a firm believer in the LRC.

    • Gary December 4, 2015 at 7:53 am - Reply

      Rodney,

      I believe we are narrowing in on the close to 50 day cycle length. If this is the case, then there will be storm digging in from Montana around the middle of the month. That storm has a chance of producing snow. And, then we will have those big troughs move back through between the 20th of December and the 20th of January, then again between around the 10th of February and the 10th of March. These two stretches are where we will have our wettest and stormiest weather. So, there is a chance of a white Christmas, but we still have to battle the fact that there hasn’t been a lot of cold air. Will it be cold enough?

      Gary

      • Alice December 4, 2015 at 7:56 am - Reply

        Gary,
        You beat me to it…..as I was responding to Rodney, your reply came as I hit Submit…..but now mine is waiting moderation ..?

    • Alice December 4, 2015 at 7:53 am - Reply

      Rodney,
      On the 12 week forecast (at top of page put in your zip code)…..

      This is for KC metro…..

      December 20
      Chances of Rain and Snow 40°F / 23°F
      If you have vacation or wedding plans in Dodge City, Wichita, Topeka, Kansas City, Columbia, Springfield, St. Louis, Des Moines, or Omaha, there is a the chance of a bigger storm system this week, mainly early in the period. Colder air will be heading south as the system moves in from the west, setting up the chance for a variety of precipitation across this region. Snow accumulation is possible north across Nebraska and Iowa, with heavier rain across Kansas and Missouri. The high Plains will see smaller amounts. Ice is possible between the rain and snow. As we head to the Christmas vacation the weather will improve and a warming trend will begin. Temperatures will rise from below to a bit above average. Go to Weather2020.com to enter our long-range forecasting contest for the chance to win a $100 Visa Gift Card. And join the LRC Forecast Experience blog to learn more about this breakthrough technology.

  14. Jeff Wichitaks December 3, 2015 at 11:54 pm - Reply

    Gary if you have the time would you be able to help your friends down south some. 🙂 Wichita ks have any idea on snow total for winter or are we just going to get rain or ice storms. thanks.

    • Gary December 4, 2015 at 7:56 am - Reply

      Jeff,

      Wichita will be in the path of storms that is going to be similar to KC. There will be some wet storm systems. Cold air will be a challenge. I still think Wichita gets it’s share of snow in two to four of the storm systems.

      • Jeff Wichitaks December 4, 2015 at 3:45 pm - Reply

        Thanks you for taking the time to response. As a snow lover I am glad to hear that. Will you be doing a break down forcast for the state of Ks and Mo would be nice.

  15. f00dl3 December 4, 2015 at 11:21 am - Reply

    I think one thing that is certain is next summer is going to be very dry at times. During the part of the pattern that is producing the west coast troughs right now, those storms that dive into Cali now will only dive into Washington during the summer months, and the jet stream will stay very well to our north for 30 day stretches. This will allow the anticyclone to become quite strong.

    • Gary December 4, 2015 at 12:02 pm - Reply

      Snow showed up on today’s GFS model. I will blog later on this afternoon. Have a great day everyone! I just got back from an elementary school and I will post some pics/video on my http://www.Facebook.com/garylezak

      • Dale December 4, 2015 at 12:06 pm - Reply

        In Omaha Gary. There is no arctic air coming. The only cold air will be generated by the storm. The temps look to be in the mid 30’s at the coldest. Those temps have been too low all year.

      • Alice December 4, 2015 at 3:33 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        Is this later on this afternoon ?
        What does the GFS say ……snow….when and where ?

  16. stl78 December 4, 2015 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    Looks like a cold rain/snow mix with snow to our nw. Alot of time tho. I think des Moines may be in the sweet spot this yr. What do u think gary?

    • terry mercer December 4, 2015 at 1:05 pm - Reply

      Gary said that we are in the right Spot this year for some good storms. He said we expect enough cold this winter to be all snow. Its better than the last few years.

  17. terry mercer December 4, 2015 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    Exciting winter this year cant wait for winter to start. Just hope we dont have Ice storm this winter. But like I said before your body does have their own opinion

    • stl78 December 4, 2015 at 1:22 pm - Reply

      I sure do hope we have a good snow storm or two for ya Terry.

  18. Bill in Lawrence December 4, 2015 at 1:45 pm - Reply

    Gary:
    Happy Friday to you sir!!!

    First of all, I would like to say thank you very much for the winter forecast discussion you posted. It is so very much appreciated; you have so many irons in the fire that it is really pretty cool (or to use an old phrase…tight) that you take the time to share this with everybody on the blog!!!

    I think it is going to be very interesting to follow the AO over the next few days. The past few day’s ensemble forecast have it going to at least neutral with several taking it to the negative 2 or so by around the 16th of December. To me, it has more the look of what it did in mid October than the other 1-2 day dips we have seen so far. If this is true, then maybe we are seeing the beginning of cycle two around this time or if it is just one of the other dips, at least a bigger chance of winter weather. Of course the million dollar questions is are these last few runs onto something or not. No doubt the forecast overall of the AO this fall has been a bit less than stellar. I am probably totally wrong here, but I do not believe we have seen that mid-October negative part cycle back through yet.

    With that in mind, I would also imagine that the operational model runs will have quite the hard time dealing with this as they will either play catch up and continue to be stuck in this “warmer” part of the LRC or they will go bonkers cold with the each negative AO forecast. Whatever the case, it does look like the middle of December will bring a better opportunity for some winter weather-how that looks remains to be seen. Of course I am preaching to the choir on that one as of course the LRC would dictate the AO goes at least neutral for a day or so. Again my questions is if this is the mid-October dip or have we already seen that in one of the shorter dips.

    Foodl3: I agree with you whole heartedly….this summer could have some good old fashioned Kansas Heat!!!!!

    Time to enjoy this weather….if you can’t beat them join them!!!  Time for some late season bass fishing which by the way I have done many times in December over the years so this is really nothing that far out. If you want a warm December and winter one should go back to 1842-diaries in Platte County talk about the winter with only one frost and they were growing tomatoes in January…now that is a warm winter!!!!

    Thanks again Gary and have a great Friday!!!!

    Bill in Lawrence

  19. f00dl3 December 4, 2015 at 2:31 pm - Reply

    The thing about the studded bicycle tires is on mornings where there is patchy black ice they are useful but in all honesty you can’t ride hard on dry pavement. We need a good snow so I can let those studded tires rip!

  20. Alice December 4, 2015 at 4:08 pm - Reply

    On the NOW, JD said to Justin, “You may have to mow your lawn before you have to shovel any snow”

    • Brian December 4, 2015 at 4:19 pm - Reply

      However jd is not a believer in the lrc.

      • Alice December 4, 2015 at 4:55 pm - Reply

        Brian,
        How do you know what JD believes…….I have not seen or heard him say anything against the LRC. Just because he does not mention the LRC does not mean he does not believe in it.

        • Dobber December 4, 2015 at 5:09 pm - Reply

          He likes to edit posts on old 41 blog. Remember all that nonsense?

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